LeBrun: Trade proposals that make sense

[BHD]

LeBrun appears to be testing the waters. I doubt these are final offers.

 

[kingsholygrail]

I don't think Calgary needs to add in the conditional pick or the prospect for Tyler Toffoli. A second round pick to me seems to be more than fair.
I wonder if he could find some chemistry in our top 6 though.

You can't have 30% retained if all you're offering is a late 2nd for Toffoli.

 

[bluesfan94]

Done. No take-backsies.

Dammit you posted this before we could reject it. Well played. I'll call Army and tell him the bad news

 

[Qward]

I think you're going to see very little of 1st round pick movement this year, and if they are moved, they will be higher tier players, not Vatanen and Pageau. No disrespect whatsoever.

The goal is to win the cup this year, not be a perennial playoff team that doesnt win.

 

[Funk21]

If your NJD there is no way in hell I trade Vatanen with 30% retention for a second. That is terrible.

I am not gonna spend the time to sort out the rest of the pieces but if LuBrun thinks that the NJD trade is fair its a good thing he isn't a GM of any of the 31 teams.

 

[bluesfan94]

Is the ROR trade the bench mark to all trades or is the Hanzal and White for a 1st, 2nd, 4th the bench mark? I think you get my point right?

Trade deadline prices is all about supply and demand that that varies year to year. Not sure why some fans don't understand that. There is no for sure measuring system here.

ROR wasn't a deadline deal, FWIW. But given that Armstrong wasn't willing to give up Kyrou for an under contract ROR, it stretches reason to think he'll do the same for a rental Kreider when we are the best team in the Western Conference and have Tarasenko coming back at some point.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I’m an Avalanche fan. Hate the Blues. But Even I’ll back up the fans mentioning the ROR trade. They’re not saying Kreider doesn’t deserve a return like that because of ROR. They’re saying their GM who made that trade isn’t going to give up all that value for a rental when Kyrou wasn’t even on the table for ROR.

Hell, in the middle of a playoff race two years ago Army went and traded Stastny for a 1st. He just isn’t that kind of GM. People can say Kreider’s value is whatever the hell they want. All Blues fans are saying is that their GM won’t be the one making that trade and I fully agree with them.

Agreed. Supply and Demand sets the price and that varies from year to year. So basically, it comes down to who is in on Kreider. Lets say 4-6 teams are "interested". Then it comes down to who wants him more and how desperate they are to top the other teams best offer. Rangers likely get what they want if there are two desperate teams in on Kreider.

What any player is worth is due to how much the other team wants that player. If there are multiple teams interested, that's when the price increases.

 

[RationalExpectations]

GMs tend to overpay at this time, but at any other time Pageau isn't worth a 1st. Pollie likely isn't buying, so that's one idiot who over pays for bottom 6 players out.


Vatanen isn't very good. GMs overpay, so you may get lucky, but I wouldnt hold your breath.

Agreed for Pageau, I do not say he is worth that 1st+, I just believe that if GMs start to play the auction game, he may very well get a price (well) over his intrinsic value. Else, I agree Pageau is more a 3C than a 2C in a contending team and hence maybe he should be valued a 2nd + 3rd + prospect (in the context of valuation, Bellows makes sense IMO) but that s without usual TDL premium

 

[Thirty One]

Dammit you posted this before we could reject it. Well played. I'll call Army and tell him the bad news

Those are the breaks. Sorry.

 

[Habs Halifax]

ROR wasn't a deadline deal, FWIW. But given that Armstrong wasn't willing to give up Kyrou for an under contract ROR, it stretches reason to think he'll do the same for a rental Kreider when we are the best team in the Western Conference and have Tarasenko coming back at some point.

Yeah, ROR was not a pending UFA. Agreed. But I think my point went over your head.

Kreider's value is all about who wants him the most and how many teams want him. So I repeat, Supply and Demand sets the price at the annual trade deadline for pending UFA's. Both sides have to agree or there is no deal. Will there be 2 or 3 desperate teams in on Kreider? Who knows.

All I do know is most of the savvy GM's will wait last moment to see if the prices drop. However, Sometimes a GM with the emotional attachment to how that player fits on their team moves in early and increases the price cause they really want him. It's very unpredictable for fans

 

[bluesfan94]

Agreed. Supply and Demand sets the price and that varies from year to year. So basically, it comes down to who is in on Kreider. Lets say 4-6 teams are "interested". Then it comes down to who wants him more and how desperate they are to top the other teams best offer. Rangers likely get what they want if there are two desperate teams in on Kreider.

What any player is worth is due to how much the other team wants that player. If there are multiple teams interested, that's when the price increases.

Which is fine. If someone else is willing to pay that price for Kreider, then bully for the Rangers. Blues fans are just bringing up the ROR trade because it shows that that team will not be us. We do not want him that badly, but even if we did really want him, we have a pretty damn good reason to believe that Kyrou won't be the piece moving. Part of that is the ROR trade - we got a better player who was not a rental in that trade and Kyrou was off the table even then. Trust me, we needed a top line center much much more than we need a second line winger (which is what Kreider will be on the Blues when everyone is healthy (although he might end up playing on the first line, he'd be the third best winger)).

There's also the aspect that Army told Kyrou he's in St. Louis for the whole year. Yes, that was obviously in reference to him not getting sent back to San Antonio, but I think there is something to say about not wanting to have a kid buy a place just to trade him.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Which is fine. If someone else is willing to pay that price for Kreider, then bully for the Rangers. Blues fans are just bringing up the ROR trade because it shows that that team will not be us. We do not want him that badly, but even if we did really want him, we have a pretty damn good reason to believe that Kyrou won't be the piece moving. Part of that is the ROR trade - we got a better player who was not a rental in that trade and Kyrou was off the table even then. Trust me, we needed a top line center much much more than we need a second line winger (which is what Kreider will be on the Blues when everyone is healthy (although he might end up playing on the first line, he'd be the third best winger)).

There's also the aspect that Army told Kyrou he's in St. Louis for the whole year. Yes, that was obviously in reference to him not getting sent back to San Antonio, but I think there is something to say about not wanting to have a kid buy a place just to trade him.

All you need to say is the Blues might be interested but there is a max price you will pay. If another team offers more, we are out. It's as easy as that. Engaging in what their asking price is a game for fools. You have the right to say no, and the Rangers have the right to set whatever price they want. Leave it at that.

Same as Kovalchuk. Rumor lately that I heard was min 2nd round pick. Basically, Bergevin saying don't call if you want to acquire for cheaper. Will any GM bite? Nobody knows so words like "ridiculous" should be avoided. How may phone calls will Bergevin get? None of us will know that.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

if that's all we get for kase there really is no point to trade him.

that being said, i do think kase to boston makes a ton of sense.

 

[bluesfan94]

Yeah, ROR was not a pending UFA. Agreed. But I think my point went over your head.

Kreider's value is all about who wants him the most and how many teams want him. So I repeat, Supply and Demand sets the price at the annual trade deadline for pending UFA's. Both sides have to agree or there is no deal. Will there be 2 or 3 desperate teams in on Kreider? Who knows.

All I do know is most of the savvy GM's will wait last moment to see if the prices drop. However, Sometimes a GM with the emotional attachment to how that player fits on their team moves in early and increases the price cause they really want him. It's very unpredictable for fans

I mean, your point isn't really a point then. I could say that the Blues will trade a 7th in 2024 for Kreider because no other teams will be interested and so there's no demand and, well, NYR's GM thought something was better than nothing. Your logic means you have no way of saying that will be wrong.

On the other hand, what we are saying is that it is highly unlikely that Army dangles Kyrou for a rental the likes of Kreider when he took him off the table for a non-rental player who is both better and at a more premium position.

 

[Djp]

1) STL gets: Chris Kreider (50% retained)
NYR gets: Jordan Kyrou, 2020 1st


That is too much to give for Kreider. the prospect probably is lower


2) CGY gets: Tyler Toffoli (30% retained)
LAK gets: Adam Ruzicka, 2020 2nd, conditional 2021 4th
(condition: pick only dealt if Toffoli resigns with Flames)

I dont know much about the quality of the player. 2nd as a pick is fine , could be a 3rd if the prospect quality is better

3) NYI gets: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ron Hainsey
OTT gets: Kieffer Bellows, conditional 2020 2nd, conditional 2021 3rd
(conditions: 2020 2nd becomes 1st if Isles make round 2 and Pageau plays 50% of games, 2021 3rd becomes 2nd if Pageau re-signs), Pageai rental is not the type of player you acquire with a pick in the high teens.


1st condiiton would only apply if NYI isles make the conference finals. right now there isnt much separating the NYIs from picking say 16-18 if they didnt make the conference finals.




4) CAR gets: Sami Vatanen (30% retained)
NJD gets: 2020 2nd

that seems high---id think somehting like a 3rd+6th

5) BOS gets: Ondrej Kase
ANA gets: Oskar Steen, 2020 3rd

this is a deal more teams would be in on---including those outside the playoffs. I dont see Boston winning this unless they overpaid.

6) COL gets: Alec Martinez
LAK gets: Sampo Ranta, 2021 2nd

 

[Djp]

1st or bust with Vatanen.

bet on Bust---there is no way you get a 1st for him even in retention.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I mean, your point isn't really a point then. I could say that the Blues will trade a 7th in 2024 for Kreider because no other teams will be interested and so there's no demand and, well, NYR's GM thought something was better than nothing. Your logic means you have no way of saying that will be wrong.

On the other hand, what we are saying is that it is highly unlikely that Army dangles Kyrou for a rental the likes of Kreider when he took him off the table for a non-rental player who is both better and at a more premium position.

Just cause you exaggerated my point, it don't mean your exaggerated point is my point. How would you know how many calls the Rangers are getting for Kreider... even if you were the actual GM of the Blues? If you want to inquire and pick up the phone, you ask what the price is. If they tell you what the price is and it's too much, you say we can't do that. No need to engage any more but you can say to keep us in mind if the prices drops near the deadline. Pretty sure a lot of GM's take this approach. You think it's smart to troll the other GM's high asking price? Yeah, that will go well eh

Kreider's value is whatever the best offer is that the Rangers are OK with. Rangers have every right to set whatever price they want today as a bench mark. It's normal negotiations in the high/low approach from both sides.

 

[KingsofLA]

That's great...but the Kings won their last cup 6 years ago. He's 32 now, and I don't see him being ahead of what the Avs have right now.

The last 2 Cup Winner have had 3, 32+ players and that is not including Niskanen who was not far from being 32 (like 6 months). D is one of the most important positions that needs experience in the playoffs. Not saying Martinez is the guy for Colorado, but lots of teams bring those types of players at the deadline.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I don't think Calgary needs to add in the conditional pick or the prospect for Tyler Toffoli. A second round pick to me seems to be more than fair.
I wonder if he could find some chemistry in our top 6 though.

He would almost certainly mesh right into our top 6 and dressing room, him and Monahan were former line mates and Lucic was his best man

 

[bluesfan94]

Just cause you exaggerated my point, it don't mean your exaggerated point is my point. How would you know how many calls the Rangers are getting for Kreider? If you want to inquire and pick up the phone, you ask what the price is. If they tell you what the price is and it's too much, you say we can't do that. No need to engage any more but you can say to keep us in mind if the prices drops near the deadline. Pretty sure a lot of GM's take this approach

Okay I don't even know what your point is. Again, the price could end up being a 1st and a blue chip prospect. All Blues fans are saying is that given the state of the team and Armstrong's history, there is almost no way we pay that price, so this proposed trade is silly. I don't really know what you're trying to argue about.

The reason we are using the ROR trade as a benchmark for what the Blues will pay is because it showed who and what the Blues were willing to give up.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Okay I don't even know what your point is. Again, the price could end up being a 1st and a blue chip prospect. All Blues fans are saying is that given the state of the team and Armstrong's history, there is almost no way we pay that price, so this proposed trade is silly. I don't really know what you're trying to argue about.

The reason we are using the ROR trade as a benchmark for what the Blues will pay is because it showed who and what the Blues were willing to give up.

I already told you in post 60 that my point went over your head. Glad you agree with me now . To get down to what I think he gets? Wildest guess..

I think Kreider gets...
- 1st and grade B Prospect
- Grade A and a 2nd.

Rangers will ask for both the 1st and Grade A but will there be a desperate team that does that? Who knows . It's not just about the Blues. You have every right to protect your futures. This really means nothing to the Rangers though.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

The last 2 Cup Winner have had 3, 32+ players and that is not including Niskanen who was not far from being 32 (like 6 months). D is one of the most important positions that needs experience in the playoffs. Not saying Martinez is the guy for Colorado, but lots of teams bring those types of players at the deadline.

Oh, I'm not arguing that having older players is detrimental to having a cup contender, I believe vets that can still play are a huge part of those championship runs since they've been through it and can keep the team calm in a lot of those hectic situations. I also think having defensive depth is really important. The issue with the Avs is that they need an upgrade on D to bump down some of our D players into depth positions, rather than just add more depth at the same talent level. I just don't think Martinez is an upgrade (or enough of one) over Graves, Cole or Zadorov to justify paying assets for him.

 

[bluesfan94]

I already told you in post 60 that my point went over your head. Glad you agree with me now . To get down to what I think he gets? Wildest guess..

I think Kreider gets...
- 1st and grade B Prospect
- Grade A and a 2nd.

Rangers will ask for both the 1st and Grade A but will there be a desperate team that does that? Who knows . It's not just about the Blues. You have every right to protect your futures. This really means nothing to the Rangers though.

You asked the question why the ROR trade is being used by Blues fans as a benchmark. Just because you tried to make 18 other points in response to me explaining why doesn't mean your points went over my head. It just meant that they were non responsive. I still dealt with them by saying that if that's the asking price, so be it.

This is a thread about a very specific trade proposal LeBrun made between NYR and STL. In response to that very specific offer, Blues fans said this is more pricey than ROR. You then asked why ROR is the benchmark for value. I then said it's because it's the same GM and it shows what he's willing to give up. You then said supply and demand sets prices. Okay, not exactly relevant, but fine. I said that I doubt we have the demand necessary to part with Kyrou given that we refused to part with him for a better player under contract at a premium position. You then said supply and demand sets prices so the Rangers can set the ask wherever they want. Again, not really relevant, but okay. I then said sure, they can set the price, and if they get it good for them. But the Blues aren't going to pay that price, which we know because of the ROR trade.

I can't help you buddy.

 

[Flyer lurker]

LeBrun put out an article on The Athletic with the following proposals, claiming these make a lot of sense. Discuss as you please.

1) STL gets: Chris Kreider (50% retained)
NYR gets: Jordan Kyrou, 2020 1st

2) CGY gets: Tyler Toffoli (30% retained)
LAK gets: Adam Ruzicka, 2020 2nd, conditional 2021 4th
(condition: pick only dealt if Toffoli resigns with Flames)

3) NYI gets: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ron Hainsey
OTT gets: Kieffer Bellows, conditional 2020 2nd, conditional 2021 3rd
(conditions: 2020 2nd becomes 1st if Isles make round 2 and Pageau plays 50% of games, 2021 3rd becomes 2nd if Pageau re-signs)

4) CAR gets: Sami Vatanen (30% retained)
NJD gets: 2020 2nd

5) BOS gets: Ondrej Kase
ANA gets: Oskar Steen, 2020 3rd

6) COL gets: Alec Martinez
LAK gets: Sampo Ranta, 2021 2nd

These are fair buyer price options that do not include teams being stupid or injuries occuring. Kase trade seems low and if Flyers I would be all over offering 2 and b+ prospect(s). Pageau trade if islanders win 1 round is Bellows and 1 which if Sens is tempting. Do you trust isles Beat Pens/Caps/Bruins round 1 hmmm. Vatanen seems falling. surprised. Mrtinez trade is correct but only takes one panicked gm to changed that. Toffoli I think is 100% dead on. Guessing Krieder offer is low due to competition but its right as far as what you should offer.

 

[HighLifeMan]

Calgary would presumably go after Kase over Toffoli for a 2nd ++ if that was all it took. Fit's treliving's MO much more.