Speculation: Trade & Free Agency Talk XLII

[Dickie Dunn]

Yeah, I see what you mean. Cap Friendly shows an additional $833,000 per year from 2025 through 2029 but I think that is only buyout, not retirement and/or recapture but there’s no explanation I can find.

 

[AKL]

Yeah, I see what you mean. Cap Friendly shows an additional $833,000 per year from 2025 through 2029 but I think that is only buyout, not retirement and/or recapture but there’s no explanation I can find.

Yeah that should be if they bought him out this summer. His cap hits would be 2.3, 6.3, 7.3, 7.3 and then four years of 833k. That wouldn't be a bad option either, but I think if you're going for a buyout, you probably wait a year or two because the buyout becomes even better, and there's a chance he gets LTIRetired in that time.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Yeah that should be if they bought him out this summer. His cap hits would be 2.3, 6.3, 7.3, 7.3 and then four years of 833k. That wouldn't be a bad option either, but I think if you're going for a buyout, you probably wait a year or two because the buyout becomes even better, and there's a chance he gets LTIRetired in that time.

At this point, totally agree.

 

[GuerinUp]

Yeah I think it's under the "Parise and Suter Cap Penalties" header about halfway down. Their current cap advantage is 20M, and when they retire, the current cap advantage gets divided among the remaining seasons of the contract, not to exceed their real cap hit. So since they have four seasons left after this one, 20M gets divided by 4, for a 5M cap hit each year.

Next year the advantage only goes down to 18M, but the years left goes down to 3, so it's a 6M cap hit, and so forth.

So Parise retiring after this season would mean we'd only have to pay 5M of his cap hit, not 7.5M. That means if we were to replace him with an ELC player like Boldy, or a league minimum player, we'd still be saving almost 1.5M on the cap, and the team would probably be better for it.

I could be wrong, but that's how I understand it.

So what happens if we make him mad enough to retire this season mid season?

 

[Spurgeon]

Yeah that should be if they bought him out this summer. His cap hits would be 2.3, 6.3, 7.3, 7.3 and then four years of 833k. That wouldn't be a bad option either, but I think if you're going for a buyout, you probably wait a year or two because the buyout becomes even better, and there's a chance he gets LTIRetired in that time.

The buyout gets worse IMO, especially when the expansion draft protection is factored in.

Buyout a year from now is: 6, 7, 7, then 3 x 440k

Buyout in 2 years is: 6.9, 6.9, then 2 x 333k.

I guess the dead cap end 2 years sooner is nice, but it’s a mostly irrelevant number compared to the benefits of this summer. That immediate cap savings of $5M could be nice with the COVID flat cap too.

LTIR would be best scenario, but an unlikely one with Parise’s compete level imo.

 

[AKL]

The buyout gets worse IMO, especially when the expansion draft protection is factored in.

Buyout a year from now is: 6, 7, 7, then 3 x 440k

Buyout in 2 years is: 6.9, 6.9, then 2 x 333k.

I guess the dead cap end 2 years sooner is nice, but it’s a mostly irrelevant number compared to the benefits of this summer. That immediate cap savings of $5M could be nice with the COVID flat cap too.

LTIR would be best scenario, but an unlikely one with Parise’s compete level imo.

I mean there's no way to argue it gets worse unless you're trying to make the case that we need the cap savings this summer, which we most likely don't.

2021: 2.3, 6.3, 7.3, 7.3, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8
2022: --, 5.9, 6.9, 6.9, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, --
2023: --, --, 6.8, 6.8, 0.3, 0.3, --, --
2024: --, --, --, 6.8, 0.3, --, --, --

2022 vs 2021: 5.9, 6.9, 6.9 is lower than 6.3, 7.3, 7.3 and 0.4 is lower than 0.8
2023 may only be marginally better than 2022 but it's not worse by any means

Again, the only way you can argue that the later you buy him out, the better, is if you're making a case that we need part of his cap hit gone immediately, which we don't, unless we're pursuing a real top 6 center this summer.

 

[57special]

Parise's contract was never going to end well.

 

[Spurgeon]

I mean there's no way to argue it gets worse unless you're trying to make the case that we need the cap savings this summer, which we most likely don't.

2021: 2.3, 6.3, 7.3, 7.3, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8
2022: --, 5.9, 6.9, 6.9, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, --
2023: --, --, 6.8, 6.8, 0.3, 0.3, --, --
2024: --, --, --, 6.8, 0.3, --, --, --

2022 vs 2021: 5.9, 6.9, 6.9 is lower than 6.3, 7.3, 7.3 and 0.4 is lower than 0.8
2023 may only be marginally better than 2022 but it's not worse by any means

Again, the only way you can argue that the later you buy him out, the better, is if you're making a case that we need part of his cap hit gone immediately, which we don't, unless we're pursuing a real top 6 center this summer.

The marginal savings in waiting a year or two, when the cap could be recovering, are not as good as the benefits of $5M+ in immediate cap relief + a freed up expansion spot. That gives us a ton of flexibility this off-season to protect who we want, sign who we want, and make trades post-expansion to fix any future cap problems. I don’t think there’s any real benefits of buying out Parise after this year.

 

[AKL]

The marginal savings in waiting a year or two, when the cap could be recovering, are not as good as the benefits of $5M+ in immediate cap relief + a freed up expansion spot. That gives us a ton of flexibility this off-season to protect who we want, sign who we want, and make trades post-expansion to fix any future cap problems.

Again, that's an entirely different conversation. I'm talking about the actual numbers of a buyout. You're talking about whether or not we need the 5M this summer. Frankly, I don't know what we would do with it. There are no free agents worth giving it to. We'll already have 20M in space, and that's IF Dumba stays.

The expansion draft slot would be nice, but you're talking about protecting a third liner at that point, and we don't know if Parise may decide to waive or not yet.

 

[Spurgeon]

Again, that's an entirely different conversation. I'm talking about the actual numbers of a buyout. You're talking about whether or not we need the 5M this summer. Frankly, I don't know what we would do with it. There are no free agents worth giving it to. We'll already have 20M in space, and that's IF Dumba stays.

The expansion draft slot would be nice, but you're talking about protecting a third liner at that point, and we don't know if Parise may decide to waive or not yet.

You were talking about waiting a year or two if the Wild choose to buyout Parise because that’s the better option. Which it is in a vacuum, but I think you’d agree that the actual benefits of buying out Parise this year are much better than any future year. Honestly, a buyout next year or the year after would probably be a net negative when you factor in the cap of his replacement player.

I think the $5.2M could come in handy for a variety of different uses:

1. It would allow us to keep our defense intact for another year while improving our forward position. With an addition of a center, plus Boldy and Rossi, we have a shot next year.

2. I think our cap situation could be somewhat tight next year with Kap’s bonus overage + extension, on top of Fiala, Ek, and Hartman extensions. One solution to that is buying out Rask, but that wouldn’t need to happen if Parise was bought out. Saving them from $1.3M in dead cap the following season.

3. Leading off of 2, it doesn’t restrict any of our RFA extensions (in terms of contract length or $)

If Parise agrees to waive for the expansion draft, I likely don’t pull the trigger on the buyout, but I don’t think the extra $5.2M would be useless next season either.

 

[TwiztedHeat]

I'm firmly on the acquire Monahan train. Dude is a scorer who wins draws and would be ideal between Zucc and KK97. Could prob get him for Rask (cap) + earliest '21 1st + Khovanov + small add

 

[ThatGuy22]

Read Russo's trade article.

Fell in love with Glendening for Rask + 2nd. Makes sense from all sides.

Glendening is expiring and can win faceoffs like no one's business.

Detroit can afford to keep Rask's salary (or buy him out) as they'll be a floor team next season. But there is also a quite good chance Rask would be taken by Seattle. Rask's last decent years in Carolina had Francis as the GM of the team. So there is familiarity there, and C is the weakest position in the expansion draft. Combined with Detroit literally having no one work taking exposed, pretty good chance gets picked.

Wild free up cap space for Fiala/Kaprizov and get out from under Rask. Detroit gets a decent asset for an expiring contract.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Read Russo's trade article.

Fell in love with Glendening for Rask + 2nd. Makes sense from all sides.

Glendening is expiring and can win faceoffs like no one's business.

Detroit can afford to keep Rask's salary (or buy him out) as they'll be a floor team next season. But there is also a quite good chance Rask would be taken by Seattle. Rask's last decent years in Carolina had Francis as the GM of the team. So there is familiarity there, and C is the weakest position in the expansion draft. Combined with Detroit literally having no one work taking exposed, pretty good chance gets picked.

Wild free up cap space for Fiala/Kaprizov and get out from under Rask. Detroit gets a decent asset for an expiring contract.

I couldn’t make it past the Eichel section.

Not sure about a 2nd here.

 

[keppel146]

I found it interesting Dumba for schmaltz should probably be more something like Dumba for schmaltz + 2nd/3rd? Per article it was a hard no for MN perspective.

 

[grN1g]

Dumba has firmly entrenched himself as part of the wining culture here. He's developed a bond with Kap that could grow to the potential of his bond with Brodin. Simply put, I like that.

Down for the Detroit deal but definitely not for a 2nd. I'd cough up a 5th mayyyybe a 4th if they really wanna hardball.

 

[57special]

Dumba has firmly entrenched himself as part of the wining culture here. He's developed a bond with Kap that could grow to the potential of his bond with Brodin. Simply put, I like that.

Down for the Detroit deal but definitely not for a 2nd. I'd cough up a 5th mayyyybe a 4th if they really wanna hardball.

I think you are underestimating how valuable cap space is, and how much Yzerman is aware of that. Rask is on no one's "want" list, or at least, until Fenton gets a job in the NHL again.

I agree about Dumba in some ways, and am glad to see that he and Brodin are finally turning into the duo that we always imagined, but circumstances (NMC's) , cap space, and him being one of our best trade chips for a C or C prospect are working against him.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I couldn’t make it past the Eichel section.

Not sure about a 2nd here.

I think a 2nd would be about the going rate to relieve us of 4 million in cap space next year (or 1.3 cap hits for two years) combined with an upgrade in faceoffs for this year. Barring Seatttle taking Rask from Detroit, they'd be commited to paying atleast 2.6 million dollars, and upwards of 4 if they kept him.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Dumba has firmly entrenched himself as part of the wining culture here. He's developed a bond with Kap that could grow to the potential of his bond with Brodin. Simply put, I like that.

Down for the Detroit deal but definitely not for a 2nd. I'd cough up a 5th mayyyybe a 4th if they really wanna hardball.

No one is taking on Rask for a 4th or 5th.

Relieving Rasks cap hit allows us to easily resign Fiala/Kaprizov/Ek, and probably bring in a C to help insulate Rossi or in case Rossi needs AHL time to get back upto speed.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think a 2nd would be about the going rate to relieve us of 4 million in cap space next year (or 1.3 cap hits for two years) combined with an upgrade in faceoffs for this year. Barring Seatttle taking Rask from Detroit, they'd be commited to paying atleast 2.6 million dollars, and upwards of 4 if they kept him.

Does it really matter if our 4th line wins 2-3 more face offs per game? I get that it might only be the secondary benefit to this, but I’d almost rather keep the 2nd and just buy Rask out. Only costs us about a million.

 

[DANOZ28]

is there a way to trade parise and retain say 3 mill that would make sense?

 

[ThatGuy22]

Does it really matter if our 4th line wins 2-3 more face offs per game? I get that it might only be the secondary benefit to this, but I’d almost rather keep the 2nd and just buy Rask out. Only costs us about a million.

I don't particularly care too much about faceoffs generally, usually over-rated, although it would be nice to get someone that you think could win one you need to win.

More about the cap.

On the 1.3 M

Really depends on how much you think the Fiala/Kaprizov/Ek combo is going to cost. Doing that exercise pre season, I figured 18 million for the three would be enough. I'm not so sure about that anymore, probably creeping closer to 20 or 21 given that both Kaprizov and Ek have exceed expectations (low end estimate is probably 7+5.5+4 = 16.5, high end 9+7+5.5 = 21.5).

We only have 11 skaters under contract for next season, and a projected cap space of 23.5 million. (granted that's before Greenway or Dumba are removed from the team, but also before Kaprizov's likely performance bonuses are added in). If it's Dumba we are probably fine. If it's Greenway, we're probably going to be real tight in fielding a full team.

That 1.3 million is likely a player and a half on next years roster.

 

[ThatGuy22]

is there a way to trade parise and retain say 3 mill that would make sense?

Not really. If we trade him, he loses the sense of obligation to the franchise he probably has to finish his contract(hopefully on LTIR), retires and sticks us with cap recapture.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

is there a way to trade parise and retain say 3 mill that would make sense?

I don’t think it’s a zero chance.

 

[Victorious Secret]

is there a way to trade parise and retain say 3 mill that would make sense?

Retaining only makes the cap advantage and recapture worse.

 

[AKL]

I would be pretty upset if Guerin moved a 2nd just to dump Rask when his buyout is so reasonable. The Glendening part of the equation does nothing for me. Don't care how good he is at faceoffs.