Speculation: Trade & Free Agency Talk XLII

[nickschultzfan]

I'm firmly on the acquire Monahan train. Dude is a scorer who wins draws and would be ideal between Zucc and KK97. Could prob get him for Rask (cap) + earliest '21 1st + Khovanov + small add

I have warmed up to the idea. He would at a minimum improve our 1st PP.

Monahan-Rossi-JEE can be part of a winning team.

But it will cost at least Dumba+Beckman.

 

[Minnesnota]

I'd much rather have Elias Lindholm.

 

[AKL]

I'd much rather have Elias Lindholm.

So would Calgary

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I’m a big Monahan supporter but what the execs though it would take turn me off a lot. Dumba+Fiala+1st one exec said he thought we’d take a chance on. No thanks.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

I have warmed up to the idea. He would at a minimum improve our 1st PP.

Monahan-Rossi-JEE can be part of a winning team.

But it will cost at least Dumba+Beckman.

Well anybody would at this point but I agree with the sentiment. I like Monahan, he's only a season or two removed from an 82 point season and a change of scenery would do him well I think. He's only 26, too. I love the idea of grabbing him.

 

[57special]

I’m a big Monahan supporter but what the execs though it would take turn me off a lot. Dumba+Fiala+1st one exec said he thought we’d take a chance on. No thanks.

That's an absurd overpayment.

 

[AKL]

I’m a big Monahan supporter but what the execs though it would take turn me off a lot. Dumba+Fiala+1st one exec said he thought we’d take a chance on. No thanks.

Yeah that's an absolutely ridiculous package for Monahan. Even Dumba+Beckman isn't somewhere I'd go. But I can't fathom how you can look at Dumba+Fiala+1st and think, yeah, I think that gets a conversation going for both sides.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Yeah that's an absolutely ridiculous package for Monahan. Even Dumba+Beckman isn't somewhere I'd go. But I can't fathom how you can look at Dumba+Fiala+1st and think, yeah, I think that gets a conversation going for both sides.

I’d probably do Dumba+Beckman+ under the premise that we’re probably losing Dumba for nothing anyways. A 60 point, 26 year old center, is something I’m willing to overpay for, but that deal is obviously not in the realm of possibility for me

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

Yeah that's an absolutely ridiculous package for Monahan. Even Dumba+Beckman isn't somewhere I'd go. But I can't fathom how you can look at Dumba+Fiala+1st and think, yeah, I think that gets a conversation going for both sides.

I would do Dumba + Beckman although I may be in the minority as I am not as high as Beckman as others.

 

[AKL]

I’d probably do Dumba+Beckman+ under the premise that we’re probably losing Dumba for nothing anyways. A 60 point, 26 year old center, is something I’m willing to overpay for, but that deal is obviously not in the realm of possibility for me

I would do Dumba + Beckman although I may be in the minority as I am not as high as Beckman as others.

Yeah I'm just not as high on Monahan as most. I think he obviously improves our roster, but I don't think he's worth paying the assets and giving the contract extension to, given some of the other contract and cap considerations we're going to have going forward.

 

[KaprizovEntitlelist]

I’d probably do Dumba+Beckman+ under the premise that we’re probably losing Dumba for nothing anyways. A 60 point, 26 year old center, is something I’m willing to overpay for, but that deal is obviously not in the realm of possibility for me

Guerin doesn't like or want Monahan. That has been repeated back to summer. He wouldn't do dumba straight up for Sean Monahan

If you read yesterday's or today's column, he has no interest in getting rid of any high prospects, or picks

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Guerin doesn't like or want Monahan. That has been repeated back to summer. He wouldn't do dumba straight up for Sean Monahan

If you read yesterday's or today's column, he has no interest in getting rid of any high prospects, or picks

You keep saying “Guerin isn’t interested in Monahan” as if it’s anything more than speculation on a Russo podcast from months ago.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Guerin doesn't like or want Monahan. That has been repeated back to summer. He wouldn't do dumba straight up for Sean Monahan

If you read yesterday's or today's column, he has no interest in getting rid of any high prospects, or picks

What Guerin thought/was willing to do in the summer does not equal what Guerin thinks/is willing to do today.

We had more questions than answers in the summer.

Is this a playoff team?
How secure of a playoff team?
How is Kaprizov going to do?
How close does Addison look to the NHL?
How is Rossi going to do?
How will the rag tag group of acquired centers hold up?
Will Talbot/Kahkonnen hold up?
etc

We know most of the answers to those questions at this point. Those answers may change his perspective on potential deals available in the summer he chose not to pursue.

 

[AKL]

What Guerin thought/was willing to do in the summer does not equal what Guerin thinks/is willing to do today.

We had more questions than answers in the summer.

Is this a playoff team?
How secure of a playoff team?
How is Kaprizov going to do?
How close does Addison look to the NHL?
How is Rossi going to do?
How will the rag tag group of acquired centers hold up?
Will Talbot/Kahkonnen hold up?
etc

We know most of the answers to those questions at this point. Those answers may change his perspective on potential deals available in the summer he chose not to pursue.

I actually don't agree with your point here.

We still don't know if this is a playoff team next year when 60% of our games aren't against bottom 5-10 teams.
We still don't know how secure of a playoff team, if we are.
We DO know how good Kaprizov is now.
We know Addison is either NHL ready or a year away, but this was such a minor consideration coming in that I'm not sure what problem it solves.
We still have no clue what Rossi is/can be. He may still be another year away from the NHL.
We already knew the rag tag group of centers was a one year thing, and it didn't hold up, and we're still in a playoff spot this year, and all we know now is exactly what we knew then: we need top 6 centers.
We DO know Kahkonen/Talbot can backstop a team well enough.

So the only worthwhile thing we've figured out is that Kaprizov is the real deal. We already knew we needed top 6 centers. Nothing else we figured out should have any impact on what Guerin does. And frankly, I'm not even convinced that Kaprizov being the real deal is enough of a revelation to abandon the plan of building up futures to try to compete now.

The other consideration is that, if it's true that Guerin didn't want Monahan as a player (which let's be real here, he didn't not want Monahan because he thought these centers were good enough to win a Cup), then that wouldn't change form then til now. If anything, Monahan's value has declined in the year since Guerin already didn't want him for who he was as a player.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You keep saying “Guerin isn’t interested in Monahan” as if it’s anything more than speculation on a Russo podcast from months ago.

How dare you argue with Russo’s bullhorn.

 

[AKL]

How dare you argue with Russo’s bullhorn.

To be fair, I thought someone in the LeBrun type echeleon corroborated it, but I can't find any rumors from last summer by any of the credible sources. They're all random blogs or something.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I actually don't agree with your point here.

We still don't know if this is a playoff team next year when 60% of our games aren't against bottom 5-10 teams.
We still don't know how secure of a playoff team, if we are.
We DO know how good Kaprizov is now.
We know Addison is either NHL ready or a year away, but this was such a minor consideration coming in that I'm not sure what problem it solves.
We still have no clue what Rossi is/can be. He may still be another year away from the NHL.
We already knew the rag tag group of centers was a one year thing, and it didn't hold up, and we're still in a playoff spot this year, and all we know now is exactly what we knew then: we need top 6 centers.
We DO know Kahkonen/Talbot can backstop a team well enough.

So the only worthwhile thing we've figured out is that Kaprizov is the real deal. We already knew we needed top 6 centers. Nothing else we figured out should have any impact on what Guerin does. And frankly, I'm not even convinced that Kaprizov being the real deal is enough of a revelation to abandon the plan of building up futures to try to compete now.

The other consideration is that, if it's true that Guerin didn't want Monahan as a player (which let's be real here, he didn't not want Monahan because he thought these centers were good enough to win a Cup), then that wouldn't change form then til now. If anything, Monahan's value has declined in the year since Guerin already didn't want him for who he was as a player.

Next year falls under etc. They are different considerations. GMing is always balancing the now vs the future.

This is a playoff team this year, and a secure one at that. Moneypuck has us at 96% in, Dom from the Athletic has us at 99% in. We have an 9 point lead on 5th in the division and 8 point on 4th, with 21 games to go. Even in the 9 game stretch where we weren't good, we still picked up 9 points. The Wild are in, just a matter of who we play.

Addison matters because it speaks to what we have available to replace Dumba, our main trading chip. Either situationally or full time. Like you said, his AHL play and brief NHL window make it pretty clear he's close, if not ready. That could impact BG's willing to expand the scope of what he's willing to trade Dumba for.

As for the centers. Of course we knew we needed top 6 centers long term, but knowing where the Wild are in the standings(solidly in the playoffs) and how the rag tag group has performed (mostly terribly), may change the calculus in BG's mind on whether it's worth it to acquire one now for this year's playoffs and/or long term.

It's possible the answer's aren't enough to change BG's mind But only he knows that. You can't act like the scenario this summer is the same as it is right now, given some of the clarity we've received.

 

[AKL]

Next year falls under etc. They are different considerations. GMing is always balancing the now vs the future.

This is a playoff team this year, and a secure one at that. Moneypuck has us at 96% in, Dom from the Athletic has us at 99% in. We have an 9 point lead on 5th in the division and 8 point on 4th, with 21 games to go. Even in the 9 game stretch where we weren't good, we still picked up 9 points. The Wild are in, just a matter of who we play.

Addison matters because it speaks to what we have available to replace Dumba, our main trading chip. Either situationally or full time. Like you said, his AHL play and brief NHL window make it pretty clear he's close, if not ready. That could impact BG's willing to expand the scope of what he's willing to trade Dumba for.

As for the centers. Of course we knew we needed top 6 centers long term, but knowing where the Wild are in the standings(solidly in the playoffs) and how the rag tag group has performed (mostly terribly), may change the calculus in BG's mind on whether it's worth it to acquire one now for this year's playoffs and/or long term.

It's possible the answer's aren't enough to change BG's mind But only he knows that. You can't act like the scenario this summer is the same as it is right now, given some of the clarity we've received.

This is not a normal year. Last year we weren't a playoff team, this year we're 99% in at about 60% of the way through the season. Do you think that's more a reflection of the team, or do you think that's more a reflection of the abnormal circumstances of the season? We may be 99% in this year, and we may very well miss next season. So this season should not be the sole reason you think, hey, we're a playoff team, we might as well start spending futures to buy assets. No, you still maintain the course into next year, which Guerin has repeatedly said includes no rentals, and only making deals that make sense long term.

Addison doesn't matter, because in most scenarios, we're trading Dumba either way. We're either trading him because of the expansion draft, because we need a center, or because we can't afford him with some of the other contracts we need to give out. Regardless, he's gone, and Addison's presence has no effect on that.

Again, I would direct you back to my first paragraph. Guerin has explicitly stated he's not going to acquire rentals, and any deal has to make sense long term. So "getting a center for this years playoff run" isn't a thing that exists.

So as it pertains to Monahan, you have to make the case that it is a sensible and logical long term move. Does Monahan re-sign in 2 years? Is he worth the extension he'll get at age 28, likely carrying him to 35? If we're trading Dumba because we need cap space for Fiala, Kaprizov, Ek, does Dumba for Monahan help (the answer to this one is no)?

It's one thing to say, Monahan would improve our center situation and make our team better. Because you'd be correct, he would. As would about 100 other guys in the league. It doesn't mean they all make sense.

One question that none of us will be able to answer is whether or not Monahan is the type of player Guerin wants on his roster. It's pretty well established that he traded Staal, not because he was the worst center we had, but because he wasn't the type of player/person Guerin wanted on this team. Presumably the same deal with Kunin, despite Kunin being 22 and putting up a 20 goal, 40 point pace.

The question you have to answer yes to without a shadow of a doubt is whether he specifically, in his current situation, is worth trading the assets for, is worth giving the extension to, in our current situation, and if it all makes sense LONG TERM.

 

[ThatGuy22]

This is not a normal year. Last year we weren't a playoff team, this year we're 99% in at about 60% of the way through the season. Do you think that's more a reflection of the team, or do you think that's more a reflection of the abnormal circumstances of the season? We may be 99% in this year, and we may very well miss next season. So this season should not be the sole reason you think, hey, we're a playoff team, we might as well start spending futures to buy assets. No, you still maintain the course into next year, which Guerin has repeatedly said includes no rentals, and only making deals that make sense long term.

Addison doesn't matter, because in most scenarios, we're trading Dumba either way. We're either trading him because of the expansion draft, because we need a center, or because we can't afford him with some of the other contracts we need to give out. Regardless, he's gone, and Addison's presence has no effect on that.

Again, I would direct you back to my first paragraph. Guerin has explicitly stated he's not going to acquire rentals, and any deal has to make sense long term. So "getting a center for this years playoff run" isn't a thing that exists.

So as it pertains to Monahan, you have to make the case that it is a sensible and logical long term move. Does Monahan re-sign in 2 years? Is he worth the extension he'll get at age 28, likely carrying him to 35? If we're trading Dumba because we need cap space for Fiala, Kaprizov, Ek, does Dumba for Monahan help (the answer to this one is no)?

It's one thing to say, Monahan would improve our center situation and make our team better. Because you'd be correct, he would. As would about 100 other guys in the league. It doesn't mean they all make sense.

The question you have to answer yes to without a shadow of a doubt is whether he specifically, in his current situation, is worth trading the assets for, is worth giving the extension to, in our current situation, and if it all makes sense LONG TERM.

I'm not making a case for any specific move. Never was.

My post was specifically pointing outwhat BG thought this summer could have changed, because we have more information now on what this team looks like now and in the future.

Long term is always a consideration that weighs in. So is short term.

It all matters, because it's all more information on the team then we had 4 months ago.

 

[AKL]

I'm not making a case for any specific move. Never was.

My post was specifically pointing outwhat BG thought this summer could have changed, because we have more information now on what this team looks like now and in the future.

Long term is always a consideration that weighs in. So is short term.

It all matters, because it's all more information on the team then we had 4 months ago.

You know the conversation was about Monahan and potentially trading for him.

Yeah, his thoughts, opinions, plans could have changed. But he said as recently as 3 days ago that he isn't looking at rentals, and he's focused on making deals that make sense long term. That's not last summer, that's earlier this week. So unless he was flat out lying about that, which serves no purpose, short term isn't a consideration here, at the expense of the long term.

 

[ThatGuy22]

You know the conversation was about Monahan and potentially trading for him.

Yeah, his thoughts, opinions, plans could have changed. But he said as recently as 3 days ago that he isn't looking at rentals, and he's focused on making deals that make sense long term. That's not last summer, that's earlier this week. So unless he was flat out lying about that, which serves no purpose, short term isn't a consideration here, at the expense of the long term.

I was quoting a poster who semi-consistently uses "last summer" as gospel for what it means today, and pointing out a heck of a lot has changed.

As for Monahan specifically(and i'm not personally sure how I feel about the idea of trading for him, never been particularly impressed to be honest), he's not a rental. He has 2 years left on a the deal. That might not be considered long term, but it's certainly mid-term in NHL standards.

I believe BG when he suggests he's not using picks/prospects for rentals. That doesn't mean the Wild's current situation isn't a push that might persuade BG to make a trade that helps now for this year and in the future, that he wouldn't make if the Wild were in St. Louis's or Arizona's position.

 

[57special]

I would do Dumba + Beckman although I may be in the minority as I am not as high as Beckman as others.

I might too, but would have nightmares that Beckman is the next Tuch, and Monahan the next RyJo.

 

[AKL]

I was quoting a poster who semi-consistently uses "last summer" as gospel for what it means today, and pointing out a heck of a lot has changed.

As for Monahan specifically(and i'm not personally sure how I feel about the idea of trading for him, never been particularly impressed to be honest), he's not a rental. He has 2 years left on a the deal. That might not be considered long term, but it's certainly mid-term in NHL standards.

I believe BG when he suggests he's not using picks/prospects for rentals. That doesn't mean the Wild's current situation isn't a push that might persuade BG to make a trade that helps now for this year and in the future, that he wouldn't make if the Wild were in St. Louis's or Arizona's position.

In regards to Monahan, you can certainly be of the opinion that his disinterest in Monahan was simply Russo speculating, but it's also acceptable to be of the opinion that Guerin really isn't interested in Monahan based on what we heard reported. "Last summer" is just when the reports came out that Guerin wasn't interested in him. But like I said before, if Guerin didn't want him last summer or fall, it probably wasn't because he thought we were set at center. It probably had something to with Monahan as a person or as a player, in which case, that wouldn't change in a matter of 6-9 months. Especially a 6-9 month period where his play is such that his own fans are becoming increasingly frustrated with how ineffectual he is, and how willing they are to trade him.

I can't believe you're making me the one to defend that poster, but this board has used reports older than 6-9 months to justify a position on something before. The only reason some people don't tolerate using that one now is because they like Monahan, and we need centers. And frankly, partially because of how that poster chooses to present it.

In regards to the rest of it, making a deal that helps now AND in the future was never not on the table, so you're making a moot point.

Finally, as far as Monahan being a rental or not, that's an entirely separate discussion now, and I touched on some of the key questions in that conversation already, but I'm pretty well done with that one for now, because the only thing anyone ever wants to talk about with Monahan is how he would improve our roster now, and while it's a valid point, it is far from being the only, or even primary, consideration in a Monahan trade.

 

[ThatGuy22]

In regards to Monahan, you can certainly be of the opinion that his disinterest in Monahan was simply Russo speculating, but it's also acceptable to be of the opinion that Guerin really isn't interested in Monahan based on what we heard reported. "Last summer" is just when the reports came out that Guerin wasn't interested in him. But like I said before, if Guerin didn't want him last summer or fall, it probably wasn't because he thought we were set at center. It probably had something to with Monahan as a person or as a player, in which case, that wouldn't change in a matter of 6-9 months. Especially a 6-9 month period where his play is such that his own fans are becoming increasingly frustrated with how ineffectual he is, and how willing they are to trade him.

I can't believe you're making me the one to defend that poster, but this board has used reports older than 6-9 months to justify a position on something before. The only reason some people don't tolerate using that one now is because they like Monahan, and we need centers.

In regards to the rest of it, making a deal that helps now AND in the future was never not on the table, so you're making a moot point.

Finally, as far as Monahan being a rental or not, that's an entirely separate discussion now, and I touched on some of the key questions in that conversation already, but I'm pretty well done with that one for now, because the only thing anyone ever wants to talk about with Monahan is how he would improve our roster now, and while it's a valid point, it is far from being the only, or even primary, consideration in a Monahan trade.

I'm just going to touch on the bolded as I don't think i've spoken on it, as the rest has been hashed/rehashed and I think we understand eachother.

I said all last offseason I think BG was taking this season as an evaluation year. I don't think Guerin had much or any interest in people with term last offseason, unless something incredible fell into his lap. I don't put Monahan in that class.

I think he wanted to see what Rossi could become insulated by Ek and what he thought Bonino would be. If Rossi developed on a path like Kaprizov (or even on a similar path to like Sutzle), the Wild wouldn't be in a position to need to push to acquire an impact C short or long term, as they'd be well positioned to resign Bonino and Rossi-Ek-Bonino would be a fine.

That's obviously changed due to Bonino not playing as hoped, and Rossi's unavoidable situation that puts his status for next year even in doubt (how much AHL time is he going to need to recover from missing 18 months of hockey). I think there will be pressure to acquire a center (either stop gap or long term) for next year.

Not out of the question given our current needs, and likely needs next year he would look at whats available in the next 12 days to try address it.

 

[GuerinUp]

eklund is apparently spewing dumba + for boeser rn