Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIII

[TwiztedHeat]

Hertl is a f***ing stud, only drawback is he he'd need a big new deal after next year. I know he's not that old, but I'd prefer to target a guy a little younger like Larkin if we can though.

 

[GuerinUp]

Ok. What do you believe Addison also lacks that Dumba has?

experience

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

With trading mantha I think they would listen to an offer. Unsure what but we would overpay

They got Vrana back in the deal. I don’t think it says anything about Larkin’s availability much at all.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I firmly disagree that Rossi wouldn't entice Yzerman, it'd be something like Rossi + both '21 1sts or Rossi + '21 1st + '22 1st if they wanted to stretch out their capital. Would have to be after the expansion draft and at the entry draft though, otherwise we'd still lose Dumba or JEE depending on 4-4-1 or 7-3-1.

If we go 4-4-1 and lose Greenway then trade that package for Larkin we'd look pretty damn good if we can dump Rask somewhere at all, possibly to Detroit in that deal if we add a 3rd or 4th or something.

Kap-Larkin-Zucc
Boldy-JEE-Fiala
Parise-Hartman-Foligno
FA/Rookie-Sturm-FA/Rookie

Brodin-Dumba
Suter-Addison
Soucy-Spurgeon

Talbot
Kahk

Of course this depends on the kind of contracts JEE, Fiala, Kap, and Hartman get. Would need those 4 to come in at like $17 mil if we have to eat half of Rask deal or $19 mil if we can dump his whole $4 mil. It'd be tight for sure. If we can sneak Kap at $7mil, Fiala at $6 mil, JEE at $4mil, and Hartman at $2mil it works if we don't retain on Rask. Maybe we move Soucy in this situation too?

I agree that should get them listening but unsure it’s enough for them. Would be a great add and interesting idea of adding more to dump Rask. I’d be ok with not resigning Hartman as I like him but he isn’t a must have.

 

[57special]

Trading multiple firsts and Rossi will kill our depth and salary cap for years to come. You need a steady flow of good ELC players coming up or the cap becomes unmanageable. That was Fletcher's main flaw, trading picks for established players.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

They got Vrana back in the deal. I don’t think it says anything about Larkin’s availability much at all.

You’re not wrong, just not as optimistic

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Trading multiple firsts and Rossi will kill our depth and salary cap for years to come. You need a steady flow of good ELC players coming up or the cap becomes unmanageable. That was Fletcher's main flaw, trading picks for established players.

Except this established player is young and would actually be here for more than a rental period

 

[TwiztedHeat]

Trading multiple firsts and Rossi will kill our depth and salary cap for years to come. You need a steady flow of good ELC players coming up or the cap becomes unmanageable. That was Fletcher's main flaw, trading picks for established players.

Fletcher did it constantly, this is one time trade to take care of a position of need since the inception of the franchise. That's not a comparable at all. We'd still have plenty of depth in the system to handle missing out on Rossi and those 1sts when you replace them with Larkin.

 

[GuerinUp]

Fletcher did it constantly, this is one time trade to take care of a position of need since the inception of the franchise. That's not a comparable at all. We'd still have plenty of depth in the system to handle missing out on Rossi and those 1sts when you replace them with Larkin.

disagree entirely, youre losing our best prospect plus 2 1sts for a player already on a 6 mil cap hit, making this trade is rebuild suicide. stay the course unless your only losing older higher cap players, or getting ELITE quality back

 

[TwiztedHeat]

disagree entirely, youre losing our best prospect plus 2 1sts for a player already on a 6 mil cap hit, making this trade is rebuild suicide. stay the course unless your only losing older higher cap players, or getting ELITE quality back

This is really underselling Larkin. I don't honestly believe he's available anyhow, but dude would be elite for this team on that line.

 

[HotDish]

disagree entirely, youre losing our best prospect plus 2 1sts for a player already on a 6 mil cap hit, making this trade is rebuild suicide. stay the course unless your only losing older higher cap players, or getting ELITE quality back

Honestly, if you get Larkin you are no longer rebuilding. At that point you become a contender. If Larkin was on this team right now we would be fighting for first in the division and maybe even winning it.

 

[StateofCelly]

This is really underselling Larkin. I don't honestly believe he's available anyhow, but dude would be elite for this team on that line.

I don't feel like it is underselling Larkin, whom I agree would be awesome on that line.. but preserving faith that Rossi will (might) be every bit as vital in that role and maintaining 2 other 1sts that could be big pieces of the core of this team.

 

[HotDish]

I don't feel like it is underselling Larkin, whom I agree would be awesome on that line.. but preserving faith that Rossi will (might) be every bit as vital in that role and maintaining 2 other 1sts that could be big pieces of the core of this team.

a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

 

[StateofCelly]

a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

I am a commercial lender so I live by that saying ha. However opportunity cost can be a trade off, I just feel like at this point we need to see through what has started.

 

[nickschultzfan]

If Larkin was added to the roster, the Wild would still need to add Rossi to that center group, both because of his skill set and also because of his rookie contract will be necessary to bridge the gap from the present to a time when Parise and Suter's contracts are off the books.

Dumba, Soucy, Boldy, Marat, Khovanov, Beckman, Mennell, Addison, and two firsts should be on the table to get Larkin (Dumba almost by necessity due to his cap hit), but I would keep Rossi out of it.

 

[57special]

Honestly, if you get Larkin you are no longer rebuilding. At that point you become a contender. If Larkin was on this team right now we would be fighting for first in the division and maybe even winning it.

Until you have to pay Kaprizov, Fiala, JEE, and Greenway, which is going to happen sooner rather than later.

 

[57special]

If Larkin was added to the roster, the Wild would still need to add Rossi to that center group, both because of his skill set and also because of his rookie contract will be necessary to bridge the gap from the present to a time when Parise and Suter's contracts are off the books.

Dumba, Soucy, Boldy, Marat, Khovanov, Beckman, Mennell, Addison, and two firsts should be on the table to get Larkin (Dumba almost by necessity due to his cap hit), but I would keep Rossi out of it.

Eliminating Rossi from the deal would also eliminate any slight chance that DRW might be interested. They are not overloaded with top 6 C's.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Eliminating Rossi from the deal would also eliminate any slight chance that DRW might be interested. They are not overloaded with top 6 C's.

Possible, but Larkin has 22 points over 41 games and carries a $6.1m cap hit. That's $10-11m in centers between him and a re-signed JEE, on a team that has over $15m in just Parise and Suter. Wild will need Rossi and his $925k cap hit in the top-9.

I'd start with Dumba, Boldy, and 1st and see where the conversation goes.

I'd like to keep Dumba, but any way I run the numbers, the Wild just don't have the cap space to move forward if Parise is still on the team.

 

[57special]

Possible, but Larkin has 22 points over 41 games and carries a $6.1m cap hit. That's $10-11m in centers between him and a re-signed JEE, on a team that has over $15m in just Parise and Suter. Wild will need Rossi and his $925k cap hit in the top-9.

I'd start with Dumba, Boldy, and 1st and see where the conversation goes.

I'd like to keep Dumba, but any way I run the numbers, the Wild just don't have the cap space to move forward if Parise is still on the team.

I agree with you on Dumba and his cap hit. Once Brodin's deal kicks in MN will be paying their top 4 27M/yr. There are worse situations, like SJS, but in general you can't pay your top 4 that much unless they are extraordinary.

DRW two best Dmen going forward are Hronek and Seider, both young RHD. Dumba is not a fit. Teams like CAL and VAN could use a RHD. That's why I keep circling back to Monahan, as i think it is possible to get him for Dumba+(Beckman/Menell/Khovanov/Khusnut/1st).
Larkin is a better two way player, and a bit younger, but JEE can take the difficult defensive assignments, while Monahan cherry picks, centers KK and Lizard. and plays the PP.

 

[nickschultzfan]

I agree with you on Dumba and his cap hit. Once Brodin's deal kicks in MN will be paying their top 4 27M/yr. There are worse situations, like SJS, but in general you can't pay your top 4 that much unless they are extraordinary.

DRW two best Dmen going forward are Hronek and Seider, both young RHD. Dumba is not a fit. Teams like CAL and VAN could use a RHD. That's why I keep circling back to Monahan, as i think it is possible to get him for Dumba+(Beckman/Menell/Khovanov/Khusnut/1st).
Larkin is a better two way player, and a bit younger, but JEE can take the difficult defensive assignments, while Monahan cherry picks, centers KK and Lizard. and plays the PP.

Monahan for Dumba+Beckman seems like a good match (as long as Guerin can them protect Monahan and also Soucy in expansion). He would effectively take Rask's spot and would be provided "easy" minutes for him to get points.

Guerin does not seem warm to the idea though.

 

[HotDish]

Monahan for Dumba+Beckman seems like a good match (as long as Guerin can them protect Monahan and also Soucy in expansion). He would effectively take Rask's spot and would be provided "easy" minutes for him to get points.

Guerin does not seem warm to the idea though.

You'll never be able to protect Soucy.

1) 3 d spots are taken for the E.D.
2) you have to expose someone. Soucy would be the only available Dmen. Unless you re-sign Cole. Even then point 1 comes back and protecting 8 skaters opens up a young forward to be taken. Losing Soucy is NBD. Soucy is a 4-5D.

 

[MNNumbers]

Monahan for Dumba+Beckman seems like a good match (as long as Guerin can them protect Monahan and also Soucy in expansion). He would effectively take Rask's spot and would be provided "easy" minutes for him to get points.

Guerin does not seem warm to the idea though.

As was said above, what I understand about the protection is that the team can protect 4 forwards and 3 d-men, and then they have to choose between 1 more d-man or 3 more forwards.

So, if this proposed trade happened, you have protected:
Parise (NMC), Zucc (NMC), Fiala, and then one more. Who is it going to be? Right now, the 4th forward on the roster would be Erickson-Ek. Add Monahan, and the 4th spot goes to EE.
D-men: Suter (NMC), Brodin (NMC), Spurgeon (NMC).
You can't protect Soucy without exposing EE.

This is the problem, of course. And, it is the reason that we all have the fantasy that Parise will wave his NMC for the ED, because then all the problems are solved. In that situation, you can protect:
All four top4 D-men
Zucc, Fiala, EE, Greenway and there is no chance that Seattle takes Parise, so it all works out.
Even in this case, however, you might want to think of making a trade for a C, because then you expose Greenway and protect Soucy, and you still have a good top4 d-core, and you get your center that you want in exchange for Dumba.

 

[BagHead]

Monahan for Dumba+Beckman seems like a good match (as long as Guerin can them protect Monahan and also Soucy in expansion). He would effectively take Rask's spot and would be provided "easy" minutes for him to get points.

Guerin does not seem warm to the idea though.

I like that it'd get us an upgrade at center, but I'm not sure how we protect both Monahan and Soucy. We'd have to go 4-4, and lose Greenway, so from our perspective it's really Dumba+Beckman+Greenway for Monahan. Obviously, Seattle gets Greenway, not Calgary, but the losses equal up to the same for us. I think I'd rather lose Soucy in that case, and I wouldn't love that either. Stupid expansion draft. I guess at some point, if you want to improve the center position through a trade, you have to pony up, and it has to be for someone who's available.

a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

I'm sorry, but I couldn't help it.

 

[grN1g]

Honestly I think this is a quite simple problem to solve.

Do you believe in JEE or not? (Insert Billy bean money ball spech.) We are not giving up Rossi or likely Khusnusdinov.

Do you think 2021 potential center pick can be in line up by 2023? If not trade? Perhaps. Do with this info what you will.

Cause if you don't believe, at the very least you have opened your trade packaging to a combo of:

Ek
1st

With the potential to add a Dumba and maybe another 1st. That's valuable.

 

[MNNumbers]

Maybe the real question in the whole matter is....
exactly how much depth do we have coming through the pipeline at Defense?

Monahan looks to be a 60-70 pt Center, at 6.4M. That's a similar cap hit to Dumba. So, something has to shed, but we will lose Rask and several others off the roster, so maybe that's ok. He will be due one more big contract, however.

For example....
Dumba + Beckman for Monahan.
Now, in the ED....
7-3-1 and you likely lose Soucy (protect Parise, Zucc, Fiala, Monahan, JEE, Greenway, plus?? and there is no way Seattle takes the 8th forward)....
4-4-1 and you lose JEE very likely.
Losing JEE is not a good thing methinks.

So, without Dumba and without Soucy....what does the future look like at defense?