Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIII

[Obvious Fabertism]

Just so we’re clear, we’re talking about the difference in players playing third line and third pair roles in relation to a top pair defender. Disagree all you want but that’s reality.

Building the best team possible in a salary cap world is the reality, not a fantasy team.

 

[Prior]

Building the best team possible in a salary cap world is the reality, not a fantasy team.

Top pair defender at $6m per is damn closer to that reality than paying players on your third line/pair $2-3m per. But that should be pretty obvious by now given the latter is the Wild MO.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Top pair defender at $6m per is damn closer to that reality than paying players on your third line/pair $2-3m per. But that should be pretty obvious by now given the latter is the Wild MO.

If Dumba is as good as everyone is suggesting, why weren’t there any suitors last year when BG tried to trade him?

I like Dumba, but I think some here are inflating his value.

Again, the conversation isn’t just losing Dumba but what other effects any potential outcome has in the rest of the team’s makeup.

If you trade Dumba:
Gain
(Assets from trade)
Salary cap

Lose
Dumba
(Player selected in expansion)

If Dumba is lost via ED:
Gain
Cap space

Lose
Dumba

If Dumba is kept through ED
Gain
Dumba

Lose
Cap space
(Player selected in ED)

It’s our individual viewpoints that’s determining which of those scenarios is better for the team.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Keeping Greenway on the third line with JEE and Foligno is one of the biggest strengths of the team this year, Boldy filling a top 6 spot and allowing him to stay there is what helps make our offense still decent even without any real centers.

He could easily take greenways spot and then just leave Johansson with Fiala as it does work. Losing greenway hurts far less than losing dumba as greenway does have a much more immediate replacement

 

[Minnewildsota]

He could easily take greenways spot and then just leave Johansson with Fiala as it does work. Losing greenway hurts far less than losing dumba as greenway does have a much more immediate replacement

Going to disagree with you there.

In your opinion, how is Boldy closer to Greenway than Addison is to Dumba?

Addison has at least seen NHL, albeit limited. Boldy hasn’t even step foot in the ice in the NHL.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Going to disagree with you there.

In your opinion, how is Boldy closer to Greenway than Addison is to Dumba?

Addison has at least seen NHL, albeit limited. Boldy hasn’t even step foot in the ice in the NHL.

Addison doesn’t bring the shot dumba has and will be suspect defensively. Boldy even though unproven so far should be all means play defense just fine and his size allows him to play the board battle game as well as greenway does while adding more offense with his shot. That is why I see him as closer even though not getting his taste yet like Addison.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

If Dumba is as good as everyone is suggesting, why weren’t there any suitors last year when BG tried to trade him?

I like Dumba, but I think some here are inflating his value.

Again, the conversation isn’t just losing Dumba but what other effects any potential outcome has in the rest of the team’s makeup.

If you trade Dumba:
Gain
(Assets from trade)
Salary cap

Lose
Dumba
(Player selected in expansion)

If Dumba is lost via ED:
Gain
Cap space

Lose
Dumba

If Dumba is kept through ED
Gain
Dumba

Lose
Cap space
(Player selected in ED)

It’s our individual viewpoints that’s determining which of those scenarios is better for the team.

Exactly this, I am perfectly fine with option 2 and 3, if they want to go 4 D protected then sure, I just think the people saying that Dumba needs to be traded or it’s a travesty are in fact going for the worst overall option. If Guerin somehow managed to get even fair value for Dumba, the Wild still end up worse off from expansion, and I don’t see teams lining up at the door to trade top value for him.

 

[Prior]

If Dumba is as good as everyone is suggesting, why weren’t there any suitors last year when BG tried to trade him?

I like Dumba, but I think some here are inflating his value.

Again, the conversation isn’t just losing Dumba but what other effects any potential outcome has in the rest of the team’s makeup.

If you trade Dumba:
Gain
(Assets from trade)
Salary cap

Lose
Dumba
(Player selected in expansion)

If Dumba is lost via ED:
Gain
Cap space

Lose
Dumba

If Dumba is kept through ED
Gain
Dumba

Lose
Cap space
(Player selected in ED)

It’s our individual viewpoints that’s determining which of those scenarios is better for the team.

What are we doing with this magical cap space?

Who is replacing the minutes that Dumba plays while understanding that Spurgeon and Suter will continue to decline and will be able to handle less, especially high leverage minutes?

These are the more important questions.

Reports are that Guerin only wanted top 6 centers. As many like to point out, how many moved? Teams, rightfully were also minding their protected spots after seeing how last expansion went. That all goes away after this draft and it is a free-for-all again.

 

[Bazeek]

If Dumba is as good as everyone is suggesting, why weren’t there any suitors last year when BG tried to trade him?

I like Dumba, but I think some here are inflating his value.

When Dumba's name has come up in trade rumors there have always been rumored suitors (usually Canadian teams). This summer I believe it was mostly Vancouver, Winnipeg and Calgary that came up; I can't remember if there were also American teams, but they tend to get drowned out in the media coverage.

Regardless, the reason he wasn't traded is because Guerin was asking for more than another GM was willing to give up. I don't think anyone disputes that.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

When Dumba's name has come up in trade rumors there have always been rumored suitors (usually Canadian teams). This summer I believe it was mostly Vancouver, Winnipeg and Calgary that came up; I can't remember if there were also American teams, but they tend to get drowned out in the media coverage.

Regardless, the reason he wasn't traded is because Guerin was asking for more than another GM was willing to give up. I don't think anyone disputes that.

Or because Guerin’s ask was too specific.

 

[Minnewildsota]

What are we doing with this magical cap space?

Who is replacing the minutes that Dumba plays while understanding that Spurgeon and Suter will continue to decline and will be able to handle less, especially high leverage minutes?

These are the more important questions.

Reports are that Guerin only wanted top 6 centers. As many like to point out, how many moved? Teams, rightfully were also minding their protected spots after seeing how last expansion went. That all goes away after this draft and it is a free-for-all again.

Cap space: well that’s an important question. Let’s say hypothetically, with Dumba still on the team, the Wild have 20 in cap space. What if the extensions for our “important” FAs actually ends up costing us 23. We would essentially have to lose a player, let’s say Kap or JEE, to keep Dumba.

And/Or that cap could be used to sign a center. Both important factors to consider when entertaining the idea of keeping Dumba.

If we lose Dumba, I don’t see how adding Addison does alleviate your question regarding Suter and Spurgeon.

And in regards to the person that said Boldy would be able to replace Greenway. I don’t think you can say that with any amount of certainty, at least right away. Which was coincidentally your point about Addison replacing Dumba (minus the shot).

 

[JP Flow]

In my opinion, Dumba is a sunk cost. Either he’s traded or he’s selected in expansion.

What’s more valuable to you: Carson Soucy or a first, a B+ prospect and a young roster forward?

I love Soucy, but he’s a luxury for this team.

 

[57special]

Soucy is much better than Belpedio, IMHO

I don't think Belpedio will be around next year.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Cap space: well that’s an important question. Let’s say hypothetically, with Dumba still on the team, the Wild have 20 in cap space. What if the extensions for our “important” FAs actually ends up costing us 23. We would essentially have to lose a player, let’s say Kap or JEE, to keep Dumba.

And/Or that cap could be used to sign a center. Both important factors to consider when entertaining the idea of keeping Dumba.

If we lose Dumba, I don’t see how adding Addison does alleviate your question regarding Suter and Spurgeon.

And in regards to the person that said Boldy would be able to replace Greenway. I don’t think you can say that with any amount of certainty, at least right away. Which was coincidentally your point about Addison replacing Dumba (minus the shot).

Addison is a bit more than just minus the shot compared to dumba but he did look fine in his taste of the nhl. I however have full belief Boldy can win board battles just fine at the nhl level as he is big and smart with good hands. He is more than equipped to handle greenways position on this team right away.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Addison is a bit more than just minus the shot compared to dumba but he did look fine in his taste of the nhl. I however have full belief Boldy can win board battles just fine at the nhl level as he is big and smart with good hands. He is more than equipped to handle greenways position on this team right away.

Ok. What do you believe Addison also lacks that Dumba has?

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Crazy to me that Trocheck went for nothing that would’ve hurt to give up last year. Who are the centers who match his same profile of “once 1st line caliber center, needs a change of scenery/has fallen off?”

Here’s my list, some would be harder to get than others.
Monahan, 82 points, 26
Hertl, 74 points, 27
Larkin, 73 points, 24
Domi, 72 points, 25
D. Strome, 57 points, 24

Some I’d have more interest in than others

 

[57special]

Crazy to me that Trocheck went for nothing that would’ve hurt to give up last year. Who are the centers who match his same profile of “once 1st line caliber center, needs a change of scenery/has fallen off?”

Here’s my list, some would be harder to get than others.
Monahan, 82 points, 26
Hertl, 74 points, 27
Larkin, 73 points, 24
Domi, 72 points, 25
D. Strome, 57 points, 24

Some I’d have more interest in than others

-I'd be all over Monahan. I don't care that he's not perfect...has a reasonable contract, and has scored consistently, or at least consistently enough for a 2C.

- don't know enough about Hertl. He's far less of a consistent point producer, and it's not like SJS need another offensive RHD (Dumba).

- Larkin. Not available for anything we would want to give up. DET doesn't need RHD.

- Domi. Seems like something is off with this guy, and in any event, CBJ desperately needs C's, after losing Wennberg and PLD. Makes you wonder why they are playing Domi at wing.

- Strome....ok? Not thrilled with him.

JT Miller plays some C, and VAN could really use a RHD. Miller is a couple of years older than Dumba, but he has really come on in the past couple of years. Maybe grab one of MTL's young C's, especially if they re-sign Danault. Kotkaniemi and Poehling, especially, have been disappointing for them.

 

[nickschultzfan]

If people want to protect Dumba at all costs (which I think is a reasonable plan), then folks are going to need to be more open on putting Rossi and maybe even Khovanov on the Wild very soon.

Minnesota will be a cap team for a while.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Ok. What do you believe Addison also lacks that Dumba has?

Physicality and defensive play. He has offensive abilities and decent speed by the looks of it but he won’t be a physical presence at all and at least to start I would expect his defense to be lackluster

 

[DeagleJenkins]

-I'd be all over Monahan. I don't care that he's not perfect...has a reasonable contract, and has scored consistently, or at least consistently enough for a 2C.

- don't know enough about Hertl. He's far less of a consistent point producer, and it's not like SJS need another offensive RHD (Dumba).

- Larkin. Not available for anything we would want to give up. DET doesn't need RHD.

- Domi. Seems like something is off with this guy, and in any event, CBJ desperately needs C's, after losing Wennberg and PLD. Makes you wonder why they are playing Domi at wing.

- Strome....ok? Not thrilled with him.

JT Miller plays some C, and VAN could really use a RHD. Miller is a couple of years older than Dumba, but he has really come on in the past couple of years. Maybe grab one of MTL's young C's, especially if they re-sign Danault. Kotkaniemi and Poehling, especially, have been disappointing for them.

I’d give up a good amount for Larkin

 

[57special]

I’d give up a good amount for Larkin

I just don't see them giving up their #1C. A Covid damaged C prospect like Rossi wouldn't come close to enticing Yzerman. We'd have to offer Kaprizov +, and even then...they've taken wingers and a RHD in their past three drafts, which is what we have to offer.

 

[TwiztedHeat]

Monahan is still my go to. He'd be absolutely amazing between Kap and Zucc with his ability to score.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I just don't see them giving up their #1C. A Covid damaged C prospect like Rossi wouldn't come close to enticing Yzerman. We'd have to offer Kaprizov +, and even then...they've taken wingers and a RHD in their past three drafts, which is what we have to offer.

With trading mantha I think they would listen to an offer. Unsure what but we would overpay

 

[TwiztedHeat]

With trading mantha I think they would listen to an offer. Unsure what but we would overpay

I firmly disagree that Rossi wouldn't entice Yzerman, it'd be something like Rossi + both '21 1sts or Rossi + '21 1st + '22 1st if they wanted to stretch out their capital. Would have to be after the expansion draft and at the entry draft though, otherwise we'd still lose Dumba or JEE depending on 4-4-1 or 7-3-1.

If we go 4-4-1 and lose Greenway then trade that package for Larkin we'd look pretty damn good if we can dump Rask somewhere at all, possibly to Detroit in that deal if we add a 3rd or 4th or something.

Kap-Larkin-Zucc
Boldy-JEE-Fiala
Parise-Hartman-Foligno
FA/Rookie-Sturm-FA/Rookie

Brodin-Dumba
Suter-Addison
Soucy-Spurgeon

Talbot
Kahk

Of course this depends on the kind of contracts JEE, Fiala, Kap, and Hartman get. Would need those 4 to come in at like $17 mil if we have to eat half of Rask deal or $19 mil if we can dump his whole $4 mil. It'd be tight for sure. If we can sneak Kap at $7mil, Fiala at $6 mil, JEE at $4mil, and Hartman at $2mil it works if we don't retain on Rask. Maybe we move Soucy in this situation too?

 

[GuerinUp]

From San Jose?
Well, he can submit a 3 team trade list, so it's a question whether he would come here.
He has a 5.6M cap hit, which is a nice match for Dumba. He would only be under team control for one more year, however.

If you make that trade, then you would do what with the Expansion draft? Trading for him and allowing him to be taken is no better than letting Seattle take Dumba, so you have to protect him. That means you are going 7-3-1:
Protect: Parise, Zuccarello, Fiala, Hertl, Erickson-Ek, Greenway, Foligno.......Suter, Spurgeon, Brodin

Now, Seattle chooses Soucy, quite easily.

Hertl basically averages .5 pts/gm even strength. That's roughly Joel Erickson-EK territory. He gets more PP time, so he has higher numbers than that. But, that's basically his average.

Making this trade is essentially trading Soucy + 2.9M cap space for Hertl. When I look at Hertl's stats, I'm not sure that's so great.

This kind of analysis is what I mean. I just don't know what is the right thing to do.

This logic makes zero sense, youre trading from a position of strength and gaining in a position of weakness. I couldnt care less if soucy is taken, hes been the consensus desired candidate to lose basically this whole year. And comparing hertl to ek is crazy, all you have to do is watch a couple san jose games to see that hertl is a better player on a crappy team. Hertl would be a solid pickup for this team.