Speculation: Total goals scored by Capitals next season. Are we in trouble?

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Please stop talking about 2005 draftees. It's still painful.

 

[Raikkonen]

Ovi with 100+ points. Easily. Will cover all these doubts.

And I don't give a ****, btw. Just field a good group after the deadline.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

IIRC we were top 5 in scoring until at least Feb last year. I see no reason for the PP to take a major dive.

we still finished 6th

 

[EroCaps]

Bura and Kuz should be better.

TOI to other skaters will mitigate Greens offense.

They could still use another 3rd line forward, but that's an envious problem.

 

[g00n]

Ovechkin 55 +2
Johansson 15-5
Oshie 27 +8
Backstrom 24 +6
Williams 25 +7
Carlson 15 +3
Kuznetsov 20 +9
Beagle 7 -3
Burakovsky 17 +8
Chimera 10 +3
Laich 9 +2
Alzner 4 -1
Niskanen 8 +4
Wilson 7 +3
Schmidt 3 +2
Orpik 1 +1
Latta 1 +1
Orlov 2 +2

188+ 52= 240 goals
2.926 gpg

Schmidt and Orlov are total wildcards and could end up higher, while Chimera and Bura may be a bit high here. But those situations could cancel out. I agree overall that a boost in goals is definitely possible. Such a high percent comes from Ovie that the success of the overall prediction mostly depends on him.

 

[CapsJunkie]

I am thinking Chimmy Fehr Ward was the caps most reliable line last year. the second with Mojo Kuzzy Brouwer (Bura Kuzzy Williams) should see a considerable increase in ice time. Ward 6 ppg's of 19 Brouwer 8ppg's out of 21 should be easily replaced mainly because the consistency of the top 6 should relieve stress on the coaching staff. I still feel like the Caps offer Fehr a cheap contract or Gomez could be a good option for our 3c or if Bura stays on 2nd line Mojoke can take 3c
Ovi Backstrom Oshie
Bura Kuzzy Williams
Galiev Mojo Wilson
Chimmy Beagle Liach
Latta...most likely whats going to happen

 

[RandyHolt]

3-2

No matter what you do

 

[Roughing]

We aren't going to have problems scoring and Mac isn't done.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Most complete team in recent memory. Sky is falling.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Can we stop panicking and realize that the 2016 Caps will probably be the best Caps team in the Ovechkin era ?

Jeez guys, we lost Ward, Brouwer, Fehr and replaced them with Oshie, Williams. Just these two are more valuable than the three we lost. We can also expect a huge jump in productivity from Burakovsky and Kuznetsov. They didn't get regular top 6 minutes last year.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Also have to realize if Oshie sticks with Backstrom and Ovi, his TOI per game which is at 18:50ish, goes to around 20:20.

Backstrom and Ovi both played 16:28 ES/G last year, Oshie played 15:09. Just from that extra minute, you can expect two more goals from Oshie based SOLELY on TOI. Add in the fact that Ovechkin and Backstrom are just terrific linemates for his skill, and Oshie had as many points as Brouwer on the PP while playing 30 seconds less per game with a worse powerplay, I think 26-27 goals in a real possibility for him.

53-20-27. 100 goals is realistic if all healthy. 100 goals from the top-line? That's amazing.


Now for the second line of Bura-Kuz-Williams, they should be expecting, let's say 17:30 TOI/G for a second line (assuming no PK time). Kuz last year played 13:19, Bura played 12:55, Williams played 15:49.

(also holy cow Kuz played just 1:22 of PP/g and he put up 13 PPP, as many as Brouwer did who played more than DOUBLE that amount. Kuz needs 2:00+ next season).

Anyways, assuming just a natural progression of TOI/G and NO substantial improvement in actual play, Kuz goes from 11 goals to 15, 37 points to 48. That's without factoring in how good he is at putting up PP points, or just natural progression of skill and adjustment to the NHL game. Bura goes from 53 GP/22 points to 82 GP/47 points, 20 goals with time adjusted. Let's just leave Williams the same because the improvement is likely to not be as drastic even if he gets 2nd unit time consistently, and he is likely to be a bit of a rover.

20-15-20. 55 goals from the second line just by calculating TOI and not expecting improvement in play.

Third line is going to be a mix of players but they should be averaging around 14 min/G.

Johansson-Beagle-Wilson. Staple Wilson on that third line. Don't move him. This will be his third season of professional hockey and he showed he can be a force with the body and he improved his production a bit.

Beagle isn't the ideal #3C but it is interesting that his TOI jumped by about 2 minutes over his career average this past season, and he suddenly had a great season. Also having a 56.5% FO guy on the third line is pretty awesome. 10 goals isn't unrealistic again, especially with Mojo on his wing (who will bring the majority of the skill on the line), and Wilson checking. It's a solid, not perfect checking line who will more than likely put up:

15-10-8. 33 goals. Not ideal, but adding in a #3c or removing Mojo, just doesn't make the line THAT much better. It's solid, it'll win faceoffs, Beagle plays on the PK, Wilson will wear the opponents down for the top two line, and Mojo will be able to probably put together a 15-25-40 season, especially with 2 PP time. Paying him more than 4 million would be a waste though, he doesn't fit in the top 6.

Fourth line is your average PKers playing 5v5, but Chimera can bounce back from a down year. I expect 8-10 goals from him playing on either line. Galiev will be a wild card, maybe Vrana as well. Either way as a group of:
Latta
Chimera
Laich
Galiev
Vrana

Expect 20 goals. Chimmer 8, Laich 6, Galiev, Vrana 4.

So from your forward group, that's 208 goals. That's pretty darn good, and your lines are balanced, no one is playing too far out of position, and youngsters are getting a chance to really shine. I for one want to see what a Chimera-Vrana-Galiev line would do. Man that could be an awesome fourth line for right now if Vrana is the real deal. With Chimera's speed, it could score some real timely goals against the opponent's third pairing.


For the defense:

Orpik-Carlson:

Obviously this is a standard one guy cover the other guy's ass because he's offensive minded and likes to pinch, but Carlson is no joke a stud Dman. He isn't going to replace the production of Green from the backend, but IMO, he's far and away a better defenseman. Also just because Green had a great season, does not mean he's going to again. He was inconsistent at the level of play over the past 5 seasons, and he's someone else's problem now. Anyways back to this pairing and their production:

2-15 is a solid 17 goals from the top pairing. Carlson obviously is going to get a jump in PP time, but he should be expected to stay just about the same.

Second pairing of Alzner-Niskanen is another solid pairing. Both two way guys, going to be great for the 2nd line at ES to let them grow. Niskanen is going to jump up in PP time as well. Overall, 11 goals from them together, probably like

4-7. 11 goals

Schmidt/Orlov is a potential hole in the D, but overall I think it is good the Caps are allowing Schmidt and Orlov to really find their place on the Caps with this pairing. If Orlov can go back to how he was playing before his like 2 year injury, it should be solid. 5 goals is the max here, probably at 2-3 for Schmidt and Orlov respectively.


Run a PP like this

Kuz

Ovi Oshie Backs

Carlson

Let Oshie do his the thing he is good at and stickhandle in the middle if he finds a loose puck. Can still launch it from Kuz with a good pass. Obviously Backs to Carlson to Ovi is going to be the bread and butter.





So overall, the goal total is at 241 goals, which is at exactly what the Caps were at last year (242). However, the roster also leaves room for improvement, it is trimming a ton of fat soon with Laich, and allows some young players to really take their role by the horns this next year. Keep in mind, my projections of Kuz and Bura are based solely on TOI increase. If they show off with the extra time on ice and improved linemates, they could really jump in production.


Either way, great offseason by ditching Brouwer, Green. Upgrading with Williams and Oshie is great. Expect big things out of Bura/Kuz/Orlov/Vrana and next season won't be a disappointment. If Laich is moved during the season and even one more scoring threat is added into the bottom 6 or a bottom defender instead of Schmidt, look out.

 

[CapsJunkie]

wow great post coyote. thanks for all the work

 

[SpinningEdge]

Also have to realize if Oshie sticks with Backstrom and Ovi, his TOI per game which is at 18:50ish, goes to around 20:20.

Backstrom and Ovi both played 16:28 ES/G last year, Oshie played 15:09. Just from that extra minute, you can expect two more goals from Oshie based SOLELY on TOI. Add in the fact that Ovechkin and Backstrom are just terrific linemates for his skill, and Oshie had as many points as Brouwer on the PP while playing 30 seconds less per game with a worse powerplay, I think 26-27 goals in a real possibility for him.

53-20-27. 100 goals is realistic if all healthy. 100 goals from the top-line? That's amazing.


Now for the second line of Bura-Kuz-Williams, they should be expecting, let's say 17:30 TOI/G for a second line (assuming no PK time). Kuz last year played 13:19, Bura played 12:55, Williams played 15:49.

(also holy cow Kuz played just 1:22 of PP/g and he put up 13 PPP, as many as Brouwer did who played more than DOUBLE that amount. Kuz needs 2:00+ next season).

Anyways, assuming just a natural progression of TOI/G and NO substantial improvement in actual play, Kuz goes from 11 goals to 15, 37 points to 48. That's without factoring in how good he is at putting up PP points, or just natural progression of skill and adjustment to the NHL game. Bura goes from 53 GP/22 points to 82 GP/47 points, 20 goals with time adjusted. Let's just leave Williams the same because the improvement is likely to not be as drastic even if he gets 2nd unit time consistently, and he is likely to be a bit of a rover.

20-15-20. 55 goals from the second line just by calculating TOI and not expecting improvement in play.

Third line is going to be a mix of players but they should be averaging around 14 min/G.

Johansson-Beagle-Wilson. Staple Wilson on that third line. Don't move him. This will be his third season of professional hockey and he showed he can be a force with the body and he improved his production a bit.

Beagle isn't the ideal #3C but it is interesting that his TOI jumped by about 2 minutes over his career average this past season, and he suddenly had a great season. Also having a 56.5% FO guy on the third line is pretty awesome. 10 goals isn't unrealistic again, especially with Mojo on his wing (who will bring the majority of the skill on the line), and Wilson checking. It's a solid, not perfect checking line who will more than likely put up:

15-10-8. 33 goals. Not ideal, but adding in a #3c or removing Mojo, just doesn't make the line THAT much better. It's solid, it'll win faceoffs, Beagle plays on the PK, Wilson will wear the opponents down for the top two line, and Mojo will be able to probably put together a 15-25-40 season, especially with 2 PP time. Paying him more than 4 million would be a waste though, he doesn't fit in the top 6.

Fourth line is your average PKers playing 5v5, but Chimera can bounce back from a down year. I expect 8-10 goals from him playing on either line. Galiev will be a wild card, maybe Vrana as well. Either way as a group of:
Latta
Chimera
Laich
Galiev
Vrana

Expect 20 goals. Chimmer 8, Laich 6, Galiev, Vrana 4.

So from your forward group, that's 208 goals. That's pretty darn good, and your lines are balanced, no one is playing too far out of position, and youngsters are getting a chance to really shine. I for one want to see what a Chimera-Vrana-Galiev line would do. Man that could be an awesome fourth line for right now if Vrana is the real deal. With Chimera's speed, it could score some real timely goals against the opponent's third pairing.


For the defense:

Orpik-Carlson:

Obviously this is a standard one guy cover the other guy's ass because he's offensive minded and likes to pinch, but Carlson is no joke a stud Dman. He isn't going to replace the production of Green from the backend, but IMO, he's far and away a better defenseman. Also just because Green had a great season, does not mean he's going to again. He was inconsistent at the level of play over the past 5 seasons, and he's someone else's problem now. Anyways back to this pairing and their production:

2-15 is a solid 17 goals from the top pairing. Carlson obviously is going to get a jump in PP time, but he should be expected to stay just about the same.

Second pairing of Alzner-Niskanen is another solid pairing. Both two way guys, going to be great for the 2nd line at ES to let them grow. Niskanen is going to jump up in PP time as well. Overall, 11 goals from them together, probably like

4-7. 11 goals

Schmidt/Orlov is a potential hole in the D, but overall I think it is good the Caps are allowing Schmidt and Orlov to really find their place on the Caps with this pairing. If Orlov can go back to how he was playing before his like 2 year injury, it should be solid. 5 goals is the max here, probably at 2-3 for Schmidt and Orlov respectively.


Run a PP like this

Kuz

Ovi Oshie Backs

Carlson

Let Oshie do his the thing he is good at and stickhandle in the middle if he finds a loose puck. Can still launch it from Kuz with a good pass. Obviously Backs to Carlson to Ovi is going to be the bread and butter.





So overall, the goal total is at 241 goals, which is at exactly what the Caps were at last year (242). However, the roster also leaves room for improvement, it is trimming a ton of fat soon with Laich, and allows some young players to really take their role by the horns this next year. Keep in mind, my projections of Kuz and Bura are based solely on TOI increase. If they show off with the extra time on ice and improved linemates, they could really jump in production.


Either way, great offseason by ditching Brouwer, Green. Upgrading with Williams and Oshie is great. Expect big things out of Bura/Kuz/Orlov/Vrana and next season won't be a disappointment. If Laich is moved during the season and even one more scoring threat is added into the bottom 6 or a bottom defender instead of Schmidt, look out.

Again... it could happen.

However, It's concerning that to get to last years number we have to have 5 guys getting 20 or more goals and 2 others getting 15 - and the top line D getting 15. That's counting on a lot of production without injuries.

We'll see... I just hope Caps leave some room and don't spend up to the cap so they have a lot of money for a deadline deal. That's what could be the difference.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Again... it could happen.

However, It's concerning that to get to last years number we have to have 5 guys getting 20 or more goals and 2 others getting 15 - and the top line D getting 15. That's counting on a lot of production without injuries.

We'll see... I just hope Caps leave some room and don't spend up to the cap so they have a lot of money for a deadline deal. That's what could be the difference.

So, basically like last year? One guy at 50+, and another 5 from 18-21 goals apiece? You seem to be having a chicken little moment. Things are good, roll with it. Stop trying to find things to get upset about.

Between this stuff and aquablue's "concerns" over scoring, it's getting a little silly.

Seriously.

 

[Corby78]

So we gain more skill in the top 6 and let some grinders go, and people are worried about scoring?

 

[g00n]

So we gain more skill in the top 6 and let some grinders go, and people are worried about scoring?

No "we" are not

 

[Kcoyote3]

Again... it could happen.

However, It's concerning that to get to last years number we have to have 5 guys getting 20 or more goals and 2 others getting 15 - and the top line D getting 15. That's counting on a lot of production without injuries.

We'll see... I just hope Caps leave some room and don't spend up to the cap so they have a lot of money for a deadline deal. That's what could be the difference.

And the Caps could have every star player go down in November. If that happens and the Caps score 190 goals next season, it isn't the fault of a bad roster. It is a fault of the hockey gods.

NO teams have reserve 20 goal scorers just in case others get hurt. You have what you have, and the Caps currently have

Oshie
Ovi
Williams
Backstrom
Bura
Kuz
Mojo

as top 6 players. Having 7 players who can be considered good enough to be top 6 is a good thing.

Having Niskanen and Carlson with the ability to put up points on the back-end, and Orpik and Alzner being solid as any in the defensive zone, is a good thing.

The rest is just arbitrary to how well they'll do.

 

[RandyHolt]

I have never been concerned about how many goals we may score. I am more concerned with how we score them. Is having a regular season top rated PP the key to the cup? I don't think so.

I half want a middle of the road PP which ultimately forces Trotz to address a lethargic and listless ES attack that literally scares no one anymore. Sure its great to have unstoppable Ovi PP OneTimers driving canada bonkers, but it dries up in the playoffs year after year and we are dead in the water.

All things equal I want to see Ovi doing that at ES. He rarely gets setup to crank ones at ES and that must change for this team to take the next step. I want Kuz with Ovi for an extended try, as Nick has had his chance. More than wanting Nick with Ovi, I want to see Oshie and Williams tried with Nick. Nick could use a RW he can feed on the rush.

If we improve our ES offensive approach to one utilizing the high skill level we have, the goals will come. We don't need to be a dump and chase team anymore. If all the teams in the conference finals can do it, so can we.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Good news is, the Caps replaced a guy who does like 40% of his scoring on the PP with a guy who scores more and only does 20% of his scoring on the PP. Oshie's ES scoring is on par with OVechkin's and Backstrom's.

 

[PB12]

I have never been concerned about how many goals we may score. I am more concerned with how we score them. Is having a regular season top rated PP the key to the cup? I don't think so.

I half want a middle of the road PP which ultimately forces Trotz to address a lethargic and listless ES attack that literally scares no one anymore. Sure its great to have unstoppable Ovi PP OneTimers driving canada bonkers, but it dries up in the playoffs year after year and we are dead in the water.

All things equal I want to see Ovi doing that at ES. He rarely gets setup to crank ones at ES and that must change for this team to take the next step. I want Kuz with Ovi for an extended try, as Nick has had his chance. More than wanting Nick with Ovi, I want to see Oshie and Williams tried with Nick. Nick could use a RW he can feed on the rush.

If we improve our ES offensive approach to one utilizing the high skill level we have, the goals will come. We don't need to be a dump and chase team anymore. If all the teams in the conference finals can do it, so can we.

No just no....

 

[Roughing]

No just no....

Why? Frankly I'm fine with either Nick or Kuz as 1C. There's an argument to be made for either case, especially depending on who is at 1RW, 2LW, and 2RW.

Maybe nick is better for Bura and makes the second line better. This looks great to me:

OV-Kuz-Oshie
Bura-Nick-Will

Kinda silly to worry about it though since we'll have 12934 line combos over a long season.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

would be fine with a

Bura NB Oshie
Ovie EK Williams

top 6

 

[NeilYoung]

Always something minor to panic about around here

 

[RandyHolt]

No just no....

How many years of them a fixture together while going without a cup, before you would be willing to try another C with him for 10 games?

Regardless, what is your reason to never consider Kuz? Nick defers too much IMO, and the pair simply haven't passed my eye test at ES for a few years now.

Its nice to finally have a C with the overall skill level to rival Nicks.

 

[PB12]

How many years of them a fixture together while going without a cup, before you would be willing to try another C with him for 10 games?

Regardless, what is your reason to never consider Kuz? Nick defers too much IMO, and the pair simply haven't passed my eye test at ES for a few years now.

Its nice to finally have a C with the overall skill level to rival Nicks.

No I agree. Kuzy is great. However Backstrom brings out the best in OV. These guys have been our 1-2 punch the last 8 years. I guess I'm a little nervous about splitting them up. Kuzy will have a chance if Nick misses time. Even if he does good I still see Barry putting Nick back with OV.