Speculation: Total goals scored by Capitals next season. Are we in trouble?

[Hivemind]

People have brought up the "Caps need to face adversity in the regular season to win in the playoffs" mantra several times in the Ovechkin era. The Caps are in the metropolitan division now. The Caps have been a middle of the pack team (or worse) for a few seasons now.

It hasn't helped.

 

[Langway]

As said, you've got to take the change in roles into consideration. You don't think Williams & Oshie will put up more goals just by virtue of playing within their PP setup alone? Add in further improvements from Burakovsky and Kuznetsov and they'll be fine so long as Backstrom reverts largely back to form and Johansson's production is legit. Orlov, Schmidt, Wilson and Laich are other X factors. Niskanen should also up his production in taking Green's PP time.

The other biggest factor you're missing is that Oshie has consistently been a 30+ assist winger in the NHL. That and improved possession will create goals. Oshie's 42 ESP were just three behind Backstrom last season so it's not far-fetched to think they may have a legit top-line winger to fuel the top line to even better numbers.

Certainly they need a 3C and Fehr would help bring up last year's numbers further. My bigger concerns are whether they do improve systematically to have the top six playing at a higher, crisper pace to fully maximize their skill level and also whether the third pair is good enough from a possession standpoint. I think there's some question overall with the defense on whether they're capable of being an elite possession team or not. Part of it's tactics but also how they think the game in transition generally.

 

[Calicaps]

So the Caps have been widely recognized here and in the hockey press for substantially improving their weakest area (secondary scoring) this offseason and this is the response? I share the PTSD that comes from being a Caps fan, but this is extreme even for that context.

 

[ryan519*]

While losing Ward hurts, the fact that he's not in our top 6 anymore actually helps us. Ovi is an underrated passer and I guarantee that Oshie will be able to finish on far more chances than Ward ever could when he was seeing 1st line RW duties. Our GF will be fine just for the sheer fact that we're not playing 3rd line grinders in the top 6 anymore. Replacing Brouwer is a huge improvement, as anyone else in Brouwer's prime spot on the PP, like Oshie, getting fed beautiful passes from Backy and being open because the other team is constantly shadowing Ovi will pot tons more goals, instead of constantly shanking great opportunities

And contrary to what many think on here, Carlson will do just fine taking over Green's role on the PP

 

[Hivemind]

Ward spent the vast majority of his time as a Capital in the bottom six (though the "third line" often saw as much or more ice time than other lines at even-strength). The stretch run and playoffs last year was essentially his first time in the top six. He was not a typical RW option for Ovechkin.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Ward spent the vast majority of his time as a Capital in the bottom six (though the "third line" often saw as much or more ice time than other lines at even-strength). The stretch run and playoffs last year was essentially his first time in the top six. He was not a typical RW option for Ovechkin.

IMO the general point that 1RW was severely underproductive compared to what it should be with either Williams or Oshie in that hole full time next year still stands. If we're really lucky, one of those two fits to the point where 8/19 see their productivity increase as well. They've been saddled with anchors since Knuble's legs gave up.

 

[Ajax1995]

If Oshie does end up playing regularly with Ovechkin and Backstrom I think he will help both of their ES goal scoring also. He is a decently regular 30 assist guy and as far as I can tell Ovechkin has never regularly played with a 30 assist guy playing on the right wing, outside of when Boudreau would load that line up and play Semin there.

55-25-25 seem like very reasonable goal projections for those 3 IMO if everyone stays reasonably healthy.

 

[Hivemind]

IMO the general point that 1RW was severely underproductive compared to what it should be with either Williams or Oshie in that hole full time next year still stands. If we're really lucky, one of those two fits to the point where 8/19 see their productivity increase as well. They've been saddled with anchors since Knuble's legs gave up.

Simultaneously though, the third line is taking a huge step backwards. The "green line" has been our most productive even-strength line in the past two seasons. While the OP may have overstated the issue, I do think there are still some concerns regarding how many goals we will score this upcoming season. Ideally the improvements in the top six should do more than enough to cover the regression in the bottom six (and, perhaps improvements from Wilson, Laich, and/or regular-season Chimera can also stem the bleeding lower in the line-up), but I think there's still a degree of uncertainty there.

 

[ryan519*]

Simultaneously though, the third line is taking a huge step backwards. The "green line" has been our most productive even-strength line in the past two seasons. While the OP may have overstated the issue, I do think there are still some concerns regarding how many goals we will score this upcoming season. Ideally the improvements in the top six should do more than enough to cover the regression in the bottom six (and, perhaps improvements from Wilson, Laich, and/or regular-season Chimera can also stem the bleeding lower in the line-up), but I think there's still a degree of uncertainty there.

But would you rather have a hole on your first line or your third line. We filled that hole on our first line

 

[Hivemind]

But would you rather have a hole on your first line or your third line. We filled that hole on our first line

I'd rather the goals get scored and the team as a whole improve.

 

[hockeykicker]

Simultaneously though, the third line is taking a huge step backwards. The "green line" has been our most productive even-strength line in the past two seasons. While the OP may have overstated the issue, I do think there are still some concerns regarding how many goals we will score this upcoming season. Ideally the improvements in the top six should do more than enough to cover the regression in the bottom six (and, perhaps improvements from Wilson, Laich, and/or regular-season Chimera can also stem the bleeding lower in the line-up), but I think there's still a degree of uncertainty there.

Well that third line would have johannson (20 goals) and then whoever the new 3C is (ill guess 10 goals last year) and then Wilson who may get a few more goals
Imo that isnt too bad offensively as Wilson basically/hopefully can get chimera numbers

 

[SpinningEdge]

If Oshie does end up playing regularly with Ovechkin and Backstrom I think he will help both of their ES goal scoring also. He is a decently regular 30 assist guy and as far as I can tell Ovechkin has never regularly played with a 30 assist guy playing on the right wing, outside of when Boudreau would load that line up and play Semin there.

55-25-25 seem like very reasonable goal projections for those 3 IMO if everyone stays reasonably healthy.

This is a good point.

How many times have we seen Ovi zip a pass across ice and it bounce off the other wingers stick, or them whiff altogether?

Something Oshie is great at - is stick/puck handling. If Ovi can launch some saucer passes over to him and Oshie and convert on those.... I think the Ovi/Backstom/Oshie line could be the best line in the NHL.

Again, great point.

 

[trick9]

Then lets compare

Oshie has never played with guys like backstrom and ovechkin=oshie goals go up

Williams has not played with skilled and creative guys like kuznestov and burakovsky (he played with goal scorers, not playmakers) plus williams sits in brouwer pp spot =Williams goals go up easily

We dont know who the 3C is until they acquire one so vs fehr is a wash until it's known

Lastly, burakovsky and kuznestov combined will pass greens totals


Plus imo laich and chimera will get a few more goals each

Pretty bold statement considering that in the last 3 years his top-4 most common line-mates list includes couple fairly creative guys named Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty.

Finding a 3C with ~1-2m cap hit that matches Fehr's totals from this season will be a struggle aswell.

 

[hockeykicker]

Pretty bold statement considering that in the last 3 years his top-4 most common line-mates list includes couple fairly creative guys named Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty.

Finding a 3C with ~1-2m cap hit that matches Fehr's totals from this season will be a struggle aswell.

I just didnt think kopitar was creative. Hes an amazing center but more of a defensive mastermind which is what he is best at

Maybe im off but i just see him as a outstanding center but lacks creativity. He puts up numbers but imo i dont see it.

Your probably gonna tell me he is haha and maybe im just not watching enough

 

[SpinningEdge]

I just didnt think kopitar was creative. Hes an amazing center but more of a defensive mastermind which is what he is best at

Maybe im off but i just see him as a outstanding center but lacks creativity. He puts up numbers but imo i dont see it.

Your probably gonna tell me he is haha and maybe im just not watching enough

Kopitar is a beast. I think he's one of the top two way centers in the entire NHL. A true #1C IMO

 

[hockeykicker]

Kopitar is a beast. I think he's one of the top two way centers in the entire NHL. A true #1C IMO

I agree completely but i just dont think he has creativity like kuznestov. Obviously kopitar is better

 

[hockeykicker]

Before someone thinks im saying kopitar isn't an elite center i should explain more. Kopitar is a superstar center. Probably the best two way center in the league. Each center is amazing and does certain things. He scores goals and assists and is of course better the kuzy. Imo he isnt super creative but he gets the job done and makes others better

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Ovechkin 55 +2
Johansson 15-5
Oshie 27 +8
Backstrom 24 +6
Williams 25 +7
Carlson 15 +3
Kuznetsov 20 +9
Beagle 7 -3
Burakovsky 17 +8
Chimera 10 +3
Laich 9 +2
Alzner 4 -1
Niskanen 8 +4
Wilson 7 +3
Schmidt 3 +2
Orpik 1 +1
Latta 1 +1
Orlov 2 +2

188+ 52= 240 goals
2.926 gpg

 

[SpinningEdge]

Ovechkin 55 +2
Johansson 15-5
Oshie 27 +8
Backstrom 24 +6
Williams 25 +7
Carlson 15 +3
Kuznetsov 20 +9
Beagle 7 -3
Burakovsky 17 +8
Chimera 10 +3
Laich 9 +2
Alzner 4 -1
Niskanen 8 +4
Wilson 7 +3
Schmidt 3 +2
Orpik 1 +1
Latta 1 +1
Orlov 2 +2

188+ 52= 240 goals
2.926 gpg

All could happen - but you have 15 out of 18 players here all scoring more than they did last year.... that's a lot of optimism.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

which would have them tied for 5th last year in goals per game

 

[hockeykicker]

Ovechkin 55 +2
Johansson 15-5
Oshie 27 +8
Backstrom 24 +6
Williams 25 +7
Carlson 15 +3
Kuznetsov 20 +9
Beagle 7 -3
Burakovsky 17 +8
Chimera 10 +3
Laich 9 +2
Alzner 4 -1
Niskanen 8 +4
Wilson 7 +3
Schmidt 3 +2
Orpik 1 +1
Latta 1 +1
Orlov 2 +2

188+ 52= 240 goals
2.926 gpg

These are all reasonable numbers for everyone. Nothing over the top and i agree with pretty much all predictions although guys like laich or Wilson may not reach the totals

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

All could happen - but you have 15 out of 18 players here all scoring more than they did last year.... that's a lot of optimism.

all are either
1- playing with better linemates
2- be given more ice time based players leaving
3- young players having a year of experience

then mojo, beagle, and alzner i think had career years and wont duplicate this season

 

[SpinningEdge]

Before someone thinks im saying kopitar isn't an elite center i should explain more. Kopitar is a superstar center. Probably the best two way center in the league. Each center is amazing and does certain things. He scores goals and assists and is of course better the kuzy. Imo he isnt super creative but he gets the job done and makes others better

Not sure I agree with that. IN his 9 seasons in the NHL he has had 60+ points every single year. you don't do that unless you're creative - especially in LA's system.

He is like 6'4'' too.

almost 400 career assists in 683 games is impressive. He also shoots a good percentage for his goals too. I think he has shot over 10% every year of his career. Overall... just really, really solid.

Not sure he's the best two way center.... but he's up there in the discussion with Getzlaf, Crosby, Datsyuk, Toews, Bergeron, Backstrom, etc.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

which would have them tied for 5th last year in goals per game

IIRC we were top 5 in scoring until at least Feb last year. I see no reason for the PP to take a major dive.

 

[hockeykicker]

Not sure I agree with that. IN his 9 seasons in the NHL he has had 60+ points every single year. you don't do that unless you're creative - especially in LA's system.

He is like 6'4'' too.

almost 400 career assists in 683 games is impressive. He also shoots a good percentage for his goals too. I think he has shot over 10% every year of his career. Overall... just really, really solid.

Not sure he's the best two way center.... but he's up there in the discussion with Getzlaf, Crosby, Datsyuk, Toews, Bergeron, Backstrom, etc.

Fair point. I obviously need to watch him more then