Speculation: Total goals scored by Capitals next season. Are we in trouble?

[SpinningEdge]

Since the roster looks pretty set and the team was overall pretty healthy last year, I put together the 2015-2016 team (as of right now) total goals. Sure, maybe a player or two comes in, but this is a good basis to go off of right now.

Ovechkin 53
Johansson 20
Oshie 19
Backstrom 18
Williams 18
Carlson 12
Kuznetsov 11
Beagle 10
Burakovsky 9
Chimera 7
Laich 7
Alzner 5
Niskanen 4
Wilson 4
Schmidt 1
Orpik 0
Latta 0
Orlov 0

So.... as of right now this is our projected starting 18 skaters. Last year they combined for 188 goals/game.... which is a 2.29 goals per game average.

I have been saying all along the lack of a true secondary scorer that the team can count on (Burro/Kuzy are hopeful - but not proven) is going to get this team in trouble.

AS OF RIGHT NOW OUR 2ND LEADING GOAL SCORER ON THE TEAM FROM LAST YEAR IS MARCUS JOHANSSON!

Last year 10 of the top 11 goal scoring teams made the playoffs - the top two goals scoring teams in our conference made the conf finals. To win you have to score goals. Right now the numbers are concerning...

To be a top 11 team in goals (which gives you a 91% chance of making the playoffs where being outside the top 10 only gives you a 26% chance of making the playoffs - you have to get to about 230 or more goals.

That Capitals scored 237 goals in the regular season last year which means the Caps need to expect to get about 50 more goals this year additional than what the players on the roster as of right now last year combined for. IMO, that's a lot to expect.

My issue is w/ the bottom 6 being weaker now we are probably not going to see a spike from Beagle, Laich, Chimera, Latta, Wilson, etc. Sure, one may have a 15 goal season - but It's just as likely Beagle goes from 10 goals to 5 or so too, so it will probably be about the same.

... So even if Ovi has another 50+ goal season, he still needs his teammates to improve on 40-50 goals more this year. Considering we already are really bad at scoring goals in the playoffs (2 goals per game last postseason and just 2 goals per game the last 3 playoff series), that's tough. Holtby had under a 2.22 GAA in each of the last three playoffs hes played in (1.92 GAA overall) and we've lost in the 2nd rd, 1st rd, and 2nd rd. The team needs to find ways to score more when it counts.

So I've looked at the players who I think could jump up in goal scoring this year. I think we can all agree those players are Burakovsky, Kuznetsov, Orlov, and Schmidt (they combined for 21 goals last year). So for them to be the guys that get us the additional 40-50 goals, that means we need them to get 60-75 total goals this year. I just don't see that happening. Sure, maybe Kuzy and Burro each get 25 goals (which would be huge), but that still isn't an improvement on the team. Even if Kuzy gets 20 goals, Burro 20 goals, Schmidt/Orlov total 10 goals, Wilson gets 10 goals, etc... we are still right where we were last year.

I have been pretty stoked on the additions of Oshie/Williams as It's exciting - but those type of players being added at the expense of Mike Green, Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, and Eric Fehr just don't make you go from 2nd rd choker to Stanley Cup favorite.

Numbers never lie - and these numbers right now are scary. I think as of right now when you use math - this is a team that is fighting for a Wild Card spot. Sure, you can still win with excellent defense, but our bottom pairing is very unproven and counting on the top 4 to stay healthy all year isn't logical either.

We'll see... but hopefully this puts things a bit in perspective for everyone. I know It's still early and way too early to project - but I think It's obvious the Caps desperately still need a secondary true goal scorer to get over this hump and be a real contender IMO.

Let's hope the young guys (Kuzy/Burro/Wilson/etc) take a big leap this year. It's not just a bonus if they do, but actually needed now.

Click to read more...

 

[PB12]

I think Oshie steps it up and scores 23-28 if he plays wit OV ajd Nick. I think Williams puts up anywhere fron 18-22. Kuzy should go up to 15-20. I don't know about Bura, but we will see a goal increase. And with Oshie on Nicks line, I think we could see 20-25 from Backstrom.

 

[hockeykicker]

Doesn't matter how many goals is scored. Teams have won the cup with being the worst goal scoring team in the nhl. Its happened twice in last five years

 

[Hivemind]

Doesn't matter how many goals is scored. Teams have won the cup with being the worst goal scoring team in the nhl. Its happened twice in last five years

uhhhh.... what?

'15 Chicago - 17th
'14 Los Angeles - 10th
'13 Chicago - 1st
'12 Los Angeles - 17th
'11 Boston - 9th

 

[g00n]

Wow.

Go look at TOI/game. The forwards that got the most ice time got the most goals. Some of that can be considered reverse causality, in that you assume the best players get the most time, but three of our top six forwards in TOI/G are gone. It's not like the spots occupied by the departing FAs will remain vacant. Someone else is going to get those minutes, and those chances to score. And our younger and newer players have more scoring ability than the guys we lost, especially if Trotz lets these guys loose offensively.

"Concern" and "scary" are powerful words in mid-July for a team that just made two fantastic front office moves. We don't even know that the roster is going to look like. How about we at least wait until the ink dries on the latest deals before we panic and declare next season a failure?

Maybe a poll in this thread is needed...will the Caps score more or less goals next year than in 14-15?

 

[hockeykicker]

Also,, your selling a lot of guys way short. Oshie is only gonna have 19 goals with backstrom and Ovechkin? Hes gonna have no improvement with those two?
He will probably have at least 25 goals next year

Burakovsky and kuznestov will each have at least 17ish goals
Williams will be over 20 goals playing with kuzy and burakovsky

Second lets not forget anyone and their grandma can do what troy brouwer does on the pp. Williams in that spot would get ten pp goals easily plus 15 regular 5v5 goals

Point is, imo your overreacting a little as who cares how many goals they score. Losing improves the team overall. Losing green inproves the team defensively,losing ward is tough but Williams and oshie will surpass brouwer and ward in


Let's not forget, the la kings the Stanley cup twice while being inn the bottom five in goals scored

 

[hockeykicker]

uhhhh.... what?

'15 Chicago - 17th
'14 Los Angeles - 10th
'13 Chicago - 1st
'12 Los Angeles - 17th
'11 Boston - 9th

The la kings were 25th and 29th in their two winning seasons

 

[SpinningEdge]

uhhhh.... what?

'15 Chicago - 17th
'14 Los Angeles - 10th
'13 Chicago - 1st
'12 Los Angeles - 17th
'11 Boston - 9th

Even more important. The teams that weren't above top 10 in NHL in goals and what they did in goals/game in the playoffs..

Past 5 cup winning teams goals/game in playoffs

'15 Chicago - 3rd (3.00)
'14 Los Angeles - 1st (3.38)
'12 Los Angeles - 3rd (2.85)

So even the teams that were in the middle of the pack during the regular season (remember, LA acquired big time players during the seasons they won the Cup like Carter, Richards, Gaborik, etc) or Chicago which missed Kane and Sharp for a big portion of the year. So those teams HEALTHY proved to be great goal scoring teams.

Caps were almost all healthy last year and I'm running the above numbers. That's what's scary. The numbers say Caps are in trouble when healthy unless some players really step up.

 

[hockeykicker]

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/LAK/2012.html

Http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/LAK/2014.html?mobile=false

2012-29th
2014-25th

 

[SpinningEdge]

Wow.

Go look at TOI/game. The forwards that got the most ice time got the most goals. Some of that can be considered reverse causality, in that you assume the best players get the most time, but three of our top six forwards in TOI/G are gone. It's not like the spots occupied by the departing FAs will remain vacant. Someone else is going to get those minutes, and those chances to score. And our younger and newer players have more scoring ability than the guys we lost, especially if Trotz lets these guys loose offensively.

"Concern" and "scary" are powerful words in mid-July for a team that just made two fantastic front office moves. We don't even know that the roster is going to look like. How about we at least wait until the ink dries on the latest deals before we panic and declare next season a failure?

Maybe a poll in this thread is needed...will the Caps score more or less goals next year than in 14-15?

I actually think we do pretty much know what the roster is going to look like at this point. Caps don't have any money after MoJo/Holtby to really change this point I just put.

Also, the TOI leaders are basically the same. MoJo, Kuzy, Backstrom, Ovi were all top 6 last year - and our top 4 D is exactly the same....

It's mid July... I'm just starting a discussion and ran some numbers. Sure, things can change come October, but I'm on these boards now and as of RIGHT NOW I think I posted a pretty fair and logical post.

 

[third man in]

Is the sky falling. I'm still high from getting 2 top 6 forwards to notice. This should be the most complete Caps team since 98

 

[hockeykicker]

I actually think we do pretty much know what the roster is going to look like at this point. Caps don't have any money after MoJo/Holtby to really change this point I just put.

Also, the TOI leaders are basically the same. MoJo, Kuzy, Backstrom, Ovi were all top 6 last year - and our top 4 D is exactly the same....

It's mid July... I'm just starting a discussion and ran some numbers. Sure, things can change come October, but I'm on these boards now and as of RIGHT NOW I think I posted a pretty fair and logical post.

If oshie scores three more goals next year he passes brouwer. If Williams can sit in brouwer old pp spot he too can outperform ward or brouwer
kuznestov and burakovsky improvements combined will cover green

 

[g00n]

I actually think we do pretty much know what the roster is going to look like at this point. Caps don't have any money after MoJo/Holtby to really change this point I just put.

Also, the TOI leaders are basically the same. MoJo, Kuzy, Backstrom, Ovi were all top 6 last year - and our top 4 D is exactly the same....

It's mid July... I'm just starting a discussion and ran some numbers. Sure, things can change come October, but I'm on these boards now and as of RIGHT NOW I think I posted a pretty fair and logical post.

Let's say the Caps do fall off in goals a little bit. Did you realize that the Caps were 6th in the NHL in goals per game last year (2.89)? Even in a worst case scenario where they drop some from last year, they're still dropping from a pretty lofty height.

You don't think our roster additions of Oshie and Williams and improvements by the young players will be good enough for a half goal per game?

 

[Carlzner]

Everything happens in a vacuum.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Also,, your selling a lot of guys way short. Oshie is only gonna have 19 goals with backstrom and Ovechkin? Hes gonna have no improvement with those two?
He will probably have at least 25 goals next year

Burakovsky and kuznestov will each have at least 17ish goals
Williams will be over 20 goals playing with kuzy and burakovsky

Second lets not forget anyone and their grandma can do what troy brouwer does on the pp. Williams in that spot would get ten pp goals easily plus 15 regular 5v5 goals

Point is, imo your overreacting a little as who cares how many goals they score. Losing improves the team overall. Losing green inproves the team defensively,losing ward is tough but Williams and oshie will surpass brouwer and ward in


Let's not forget, the la kings the Stanley cup twice while being inn the bottom five in goals scored

.... and that was by the same team. The LA Kings who if you look at talent are extremely more talented than the Caps. They also made moves at the deadline that were BIG moves. Acquiring Richards, Carter, Gaborik, etc... those are all All Star players. Capitals so far have never pulled the plug on a trade like that ever since the Caps have been contenders with Ovi. Not once.

Carter, Richards, Gaborik, Williams, Kopitar, Toffoli, Brown, Penner, Gagne, Stoll... Thats 10 forwards that are all really good NHL players with like half of them being All Stars...

 

[SpinningEdge]

Let's say the Caps do fall off in goals a little bit. Did you realize that the Caps were 6th in the NHL in goals per game last year (2.89)? Even in a worst case scenario where they drop some from last year, they're still dropping from a pretty lofty height.

You don't think our roster additions of Oshie and Williams and improvements by the young players will be good enough for a half goal per game?

No, I don't.

We added Oshie, Williams, Schmidt, and Orlov basically to our starting 18 skaters while losing Brouwer, Fehr, Ward, and Green. I don't see that in ANY WAY 1/2 goal per game difference.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Is the sky falling. I'm still high from getting 2 top 6 forwards to notice. This should be the most complete Caps team since 98

See, I think that's the problem what people are thinking. People are excited and thinking the Caps are so much better - when on paper this team is no better than last year - and actually worse statistically. Lower in goal scoring and the defense swapping Schmidt/Orlov for Green/Gleason I don't think is any improvement.

There's a reason they play the game and chemistry can go a long way. So who knows, anything can happen in hockey... maybe Oshie is the difference of Ovi/Backy being a 100 point player again... but just being conservative and using the avg numbers from last year - It's tough to say we're so much better.

 

[Hivemind]

The la kings were 25th and 29th in their two winning seasons

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/LAK/2012.html

Http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/LAK/2014.html?mobile=false

2012-29th
2014-25th

Did the NHL contract to 29 teams in 2012 then further contract to 25 in 2014 while I wasn't looking? Neither or those is the "worst," as you claimed it to be.

And even with Justin Williams, the Capitals aren't the LA Kings.

 

[hockeykicker]

No, I don't.

We added Oshie, Williams, Schmidt, and Orlov basically to our starting 18 skaters while losing Brouwer, Fehr, Ward, and Green. I don't see that in ANY WAY 1/2 goal per game difference.

Then lets compare

Oshie has never played with guys like backstrom and ovechkin=oshie goals go up

Williams has not played with skilled and creative guys like kuznestov and burakovsky (he played with goal scorers, not playmakers) plus williams sits in brouwer pp spot =Williams goals go up easily

We dont know who the 3C is until they acquire one so vs fehr is a wash until it's known

Lastly, burakovsky and kuznestov combined will pass greens totals


Plus imo laich and chimera will get a few more goals each

 

[hockeykicker]

Did the NHL contract to 29 teams in 2012 then further contract to 25 in 2014 while I wasn't looking? Neither or those is the "worst," as you claimed it to be.

And even with Justin Williams, the Capitals aren't the LA Kings.

Sorry i should have been more clear. Yes the aren't the kings but they have gotten more production from their guys and even if they don't score as many goals thia year they still are better offensively then both those teams and it shows goal scoring is nice but not the only way to win the cup

 

[g00n]

No, I don't.

We added Oshie, Williams, Schmidt, and Orlov basically to our starting 18 skaters while losing Brouwer, Fehr, Ward, and Green. I don't see that in ANY WAY 1/2 goal per game difference.

I thought something seemed a bit off here, and it's the math. You have that roster at 188 goals and 2.29 g/gm. But the actual total is 198, which is 2.42 g/gm. That's still slightly less than a half a goal per game less than last year, with no assumed improvement from anyone.

Oshie and Williams should AT LEAST replace the 21 and 19 goals from Brouwer and Ward. The actual 3C replacement for Fehr and his 18 goals hasn't been determined yet, and that affects the middle two lines dramatically. Bura and Kuz should go from 13 minute a night players to 15-17 minutes a night, and should increase scoring for themselves and others. The goals scored by 4th line bit players from last year are not replaced in your calculations at all, nor are the 10 goals lost from Green.

I remember people were freaking out in the first few hours of free agency because we hadn't signed anyone. The offseason was declared a disaster. 24-48 hours later, that panic was clearly unfounded.

I'd wait to see what actually happens.

 

[artilector]

Since the roster looks pretty set and the team was overall pretty healthy last year, I put together the 2015-2016 team (as of right now) total goals. Sure, maybe a player or two comes in, but this is a good basis to go off of right now.

Ovechkin 53
Johansson 20
Oshie 19
Backstrom 18
Williams 18
Carlson 12
Kuznetsov 11
Beagle 10
Burakovsky 9
Chimera 7
Laich 7
Alzner 5
Niskanen 4
Wilson 4
Schmidt 1
Orpik 0
Latta 0
Orlov 0

One big flaw in this calculation is that it doesn't account for ice-time, for example the forwards you listed played a total of about 72 games (if you sum all their minutes), and the defensemen played 63. So a group, they are all gonna get more ice-time this year and will score more. (Or somebody else will get the minutes and a chance to score).

So if you do the basic step of adjusting for total ice-time, you get a ballpark ~227 goals for this group, which would be 12th in the NHL last year. Plus, there's basically no reason to expect a dropoff from anybody, but rather an improvement from a bunch of people.

IMO, another scorer would definitely be nice for playoffs. But I certainly don't think it will an issue in the regular season.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

We were middle of the pack ESG last season and I expect us to be right at the same place next year. I think the systems, TOI changes and Burakovsky/Kuznetsov will have far more of an impact than the losses of whatever we lost.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Then lets compare

Oshie has never played with guys like backstrom and ovechkin=oshie goals go up

Williams has not played with skilled and creative guys like kuznestov and burakovsky (he played with goal scorers, not playmakers) plus williams sits in brouwer pp spot =Williams goals go up easily

We dont know who the 3C is until they acquire one so vs fehr is a wash until it's known

Lastly, burakovsky and kuznestov combined will pass greens totals


Plus imo laich and chimera will get a few more goals each

I mean I hope so. I'm not trying to be a negative nancy. I was just trying to have a discussion when I ran the numbers (even though they were incorrect by 10, haha).

I really hope they find a way to keep some money saved for a deadline move this year. Potential FA this next summer seems insane. A lot of good players going into this year on the last year of their deal. Having 2 million or so avail at start of season in cap space would mean Caps could basically acquire anybody at the deadline as no ones remaining contract at the deadline would be that much. Who knows... that could be the difference.

Also, the team now or even October is probably not going to be the team come April so this is hypothetical, but I was just trying to say as of right now we aren't too much improved overall from a numbers game.

 

[SpinningEdge]

We were middle of the pack ESG last season and I expect us to be right at the same place next year. I think the systems, TOI changes and Burakovsky/Kuznetsov will have far more of an impact than the losses of whatever we lost.

My girlfriend actually just said that Caps being in the middle of the road and not one of the top scoring teams could actually benefit them come playoff time as it'll keep them working harder and that a team just scoring 3+ goals/game in the regular season can sometimes get lazy during other things on the ice - and in the playoffs when thing can get tough they don't have a game plan they know can work.

Not sure if she just trumped my entire post... or if I should argue the numbers with her... but regardless, I'm proud she even made a point like that, haha.