Speculation: Total goals scored by Capitals next season. Are we in trouble?

RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
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We need more dynamic players on the PP during the regular season, in preparation for the HPPK.

High Pressure PKers that we face every year in the playoffs, yet never seem prepared for it.

Our top rated PP in the RS is always good enough to make no one ever want to try anything new, and we get stung by a listless PP every year in the playoffs.

Dare I think Bura is a much more dynamic player than MJ. I think MJs best trait is his speed, which is largely relegated to a complete non factor sitting flat footed in the corner.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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Dynamism isn't what's required of the down low option on the powerplay. What people who want more dynamism on the powerplay are asking for is a systems change, not a personnel change.

Further still, nor do I even really agree that Burakovsky is a vastly more dynamic player than Johansson. Bura reminds me a lot of young Johansson, with a better snap shot and less tendency to use his slap shot.
 

RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
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Bura counter hit and decked someone in the playoffs as a rookie. It took MJ close to 4 years and RFA status to record a hit in the playoffs. While not related to skill it is related to being dynamic and unpredictable.

Its more than dynamic. He could be so much more if he tried. "Flyby" is just too easy to play against because he is predictable. You know anywhere near Ovi he will never shoot, and is not going to hit you so fear him none on the forecheck. He never tries a power move so no need to defend that either.

Meanwhile, Bura looked rather impressive scoring his 2 goals this last loffs. He looked a bit like Kuznetsov for a moment there.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
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All of that is basically your confirmation bias talking, and none of it has to do with the down low player on the power play.
 

Alexander the Gr8

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May 2, 2013
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Bura's dynamism compared to Johansson makes a difference at ES, not on the PP. Bura is hell of a lot more dangerous on the rush than MJ.

MJ's role on the PP is just to do one touch passes with Nicky and Oshie and throwing a saucer pass across to Ovi if he finds a lane. I'd play Bura on the second PP and have him rotate up and down the half wall with Kuzya. When they switch places, Bura can pull the trigger from the top of the right circle.
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
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Dynamism isn't what's required of the down low option on the powerplay. What people who want more dynamism on the powerplay are asking for is a systems change, not a personnel change.

Further still, nor do I even really agree that Burakovsky is a vastly more dynamic player than Johansson. Bura reminds me a lot of young Johansson, with a better snap shot and less tendency to use his slap shot.

What's the responsibility of the low man on the PP, then? Just give it back to Backstrom every time?

If the man in the low position has the puck then Backstrom and the slot player typically form a triangle with Ovechkin as the X-factor option. The PK can't commit 3 players to handle all 3 PPers in that triangle unless they want to really collapse and leave either the point or Ovechkin uncovered, or a man shading both. So someone is often open, usually Backstrom who is in the worst position to shoot, but sometimes someone else.

The man in that low spot ABSOLUTELY is looking for Ovechkin. I would say that's the 1A option for just about every other player on PP1. For that low position, the slot player is probably option 1B or 2 with Backstrom as the release valve. Getting the puck to Ovechkin vs a diamond can be a matter of getting past 1 or 2Pkers, same as any other pass, not 2 or 3, depending on what just happened before to get PKers in or out of position.

If Mojo is not a threat to take the puck to the net from that low spot then teams will not bother covering him. They'll just cover his passing options, including the point and Ovechkin, and then the PP can't do anything. This is exactly what happened at some point and it became necessary to try someone else down low (Ward? Kuz? Bura? I can't remember who was used but that person immediately started pressuring the net from that position and the PKers had to change their approach).

I think dynamism absolutely is required of that low spot if it's going to be played effectively. A player behind the net is a potential threat to the defense, especially in a man advantage situation. He can force the entire defense low and out of position. He can draw a single man and outmaneuver him, creating even more of a numbers advantage for a second or two, and possibly a shot. He can distribute the puck to the other 4 players in a great position for them to shoot, as he can see the entire play from the perspective of the net and feed a pass directly to a player's stick from in front of him. He can drive the net from either side, or reverse the puck.

It's an important spot, and it needs more than just someone who passes the puck back to #19.
 

NobodyBeatsTheWiz

Happy now?
Jun 26, 2004
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No doubt in my mind Burakovsky would be more effective by the end of the season than Johansson down low. He's a better puck handler, has a better shot, and has more balls, IMO.

But I think that's the wrong PP debate to have. To me, the debate is whether you go with your best PP1 unit, which I think has Kuznetsov on the half-wall and Backstrom down low, or do you keep your PP2 stronger by keeping Kuz as the QB of that unit. I'd personally go with the former option, since it's all contingent on the Ovechcannon anyway.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
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What's the responsibility of the low man on the PP, then? Just give it back to Backstrom every time?.

The main role for that player is to zone entry and puck retrieval. All most remember is 90 with the puck and passing it to 19. The important part of that forgetten is how 90 got the puck in the first place.

He plays cattycorner to Ovechkin. When Ov shoots and doesn't score, its largely 90 that goes and gets it. When Ov gets trapped with the puck on his side of the ice. He shoots it around the boards and 90 beats the PK to the free puck. When the Caps dump the puck in, its 90 that gets in first to get it.

The zone time that the pp1 often creates is because of the puck retrieval. When 90 goes off the puck is cleared for more frequently
 

Brian23

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Dec 3, 2011
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The main role for that player is to zone entry and puck retrieval. All most remember is 90 with the puck and passing it to 19. The important part of that forgetten is how 90 got the puck in the first place.

He plays cattycorner to Ovechkin. When Ov shoots and doesn't score, its largely 90 that goes and gets it. When Ov gets trapped with the puck on his side of the ice. He shoots it around the boards and 90 beats the PK to the free puck. When the Caps dump the puck in, its 90 that gets in first to get it.

The zone time that the pp1 often creates is because of the puck retrieval. When 90 goes off the puck is cleared for more frequently

I'm not sure its a fair comparison because when Mojo's been taken off its been for guys like Chimera, Beagle, and Aucion. We've never given someone with more skill then Mojo a shot (IE: Kuzya or Bura). I'm pretty sure Kuzya could fill that role easily, or Backie can and Kuzya could swap into his role.
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
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The main role for that player is to zone entry and puck retrieval. All most remember is 90 with the puck and passing it to 19. The important part of that forgetten is how 90 got the puck in the first place.

He plays cattycorner to Ovechkin. When Ov shoots and doesn't score, its largely 90 that goes and gets it. When Ov gets trapped with the puck on his side of the ice. He shoots it around the boards and 90 beats the PK to the free puck. When the Caps dump the puck in, its 90 that gets in first to get it.

The zone time that the pp1 often creates is because of the puck retrieval. When 90 goes off the puck is cleared for more frequently

Didn't forget that at all. It's not the main role, just a part of the position.

Pucks around the boards end up on any one of three players' sticks. Backstrom and the point man end up "retrieving" just as much or more than Mojo, who often lets it go through if he's pressured (rightly so, as he doesn't dig the puck out or protect it down low very well).

I think you're overstating that aspect of the position.

Coincidentally, as far as zone entry, it's something some stats say he's great at. Of course.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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What's the responsibility of the low man on the PP, then? Just give it back to Backstrom every time?
Once set up, the player is the outlet for high pressure situations on Backstrom. Additionally, they have options for a quick pass to the slot (or in rare situations, the point). When nothing presents itself, then they return pass to Backstrom or rim around to Ovechkin.

When the puck is on the weak side, they either rotate to provide an outlet for Ovechkin or sneak into the slot/crease.

The biggest role is zone entry.

If the man in the low position has the puck then Backstrom and the slot player typically form a triangle with Ovechkin as the X-factor option. The PK can't commit 3 players to handle all 3 PPers in that triangle unless they want to really collapse and leave either the point or Ovechkin uncovered, or a man shading both. So someone is often open, usually Backstrom who is in the worst position to shoot, but sometimes someone else.

The man in that low spot ABSOLUTELY is looking for Ovechkin. I would say that's the 1A option for just about every other player on PP1. For that low position, the slot player is probably option 1B or 2 with Backstrom as the release valve. Getting the puck to Ovechkin vs a diamond can be a matter of getting past 1 or 2Pkers, same as any other pass, not 2 or 3, depending on what just happened before to get PKers in or out of position.
To get the puck to Ovechkin, they have to get the puck past the LD and the goalie at the absolute minimum, and likely the RD and the forward shadowing Ovechkin as well. Sure, they can look for that option, but it's not going to be there unless the defense has completely broken down. Getting the puck from the goal line on the right side of the goal to the left circles is passing through the most valuable scoring areas, which in turn means the most hotly contested areas on the ice during a PK.

If Mojo is not a threat to take the puck to the net from that low spot then teams will not bother covering him. They'll just cover his passing options, including the point and Ovechkin, and then the PP can't do anything. This is exactly what happened at some point and it became necessary to try someone else down low (Ward? Kuz? Bura? I can't remember who was used but that person immediately started pressuring the net from that position and the PKers had to change their approach).
Look at the heat map I posted previously. Johansson is absolutely a threat from down low. Neither Ward nor Kuznetsov were ever used in that spot on PP1, and Burakovsky was only there very briefly during the regular season. The other options for that down low spot were Laich, Chimera, and Glencross, and they were predominantly used on PP2. It's a left-shooting location.

I think dynamism absolutely is required of that low spot if it's going to be played effectively. A player behind the net is a potential threat to the defense, especially in a man advantage situation. He can force the entire defense low and out of position. He can draw a single man and outmaneuver him, creating even more of a numbers advantage for a second or two, and possibly a shot. He can distribute the puck to the other 4 players in a great position for them to shoot, as he can see the entire play from the perspective of the net and feed a pass directly to a player's stick from in front of him. He can drive the net from either side, or reverse the puck.
None of that requires dynamism. All of that requires accurate passing and driving the net, which Johansson fully executes.

And once again, the premise that Burakovsky is far more dynamic than Johansson is flawed to begin with.

I'm not sure its a fair comparison because when Mojo's been taken off its been for guys like Chimera, Beagle, and Aucion. We've never given someone with more skill then Mojo a shot (IE: Kuzya or Bura). I'm pretty sure Kuzya could fill that role easily, or Backie can and Kuzya could swap into his role.
Grabovski filled that role while he was here and healthy. It had immediate impacts, but ultimately was more or less on par with Johansson. Putting Kuznetsov or Backstrom into that spot would be a waste of their talents.
 

Calicaps

NFA
Aug 3, 2006
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Interesting point. When LeBrun and co were talking about Sharp being a fit with Kuznetsov, they mentioned his patience. Williams seems similar in that he doesn't have to have the puck a lot to get on the scoresheet.

Agree with this and with Brian23's point. But what I see that I really like is tenacity—he doesn't quit on the puck. Also a lot of net presence, which I saw a bit of in the Oshie vid too. Caps needed more net drive and net presence among their forwards and I think they went and got it.
 

Brian23

Registered User
Dec 3, 2011
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I think most surprising thing with that video is that I don't get how Williams got all those goals. His shot isn't dominating, its not over-powering, hell it doesn't even seem that great yet he just seems to find the back of the net.
 

artilector

Registered User
Jan 11, 2006
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I think most surprising thing with that video is that I don't get how Williams got all those goals. His shot isn't dominating, its not over-powering, hell it doesn't even seem that great yet he just seems to find the back of the net.

Volume :)

I think his career shot % is something like 8%. So it's not like he's some super-sniper -- for every goal that squeezed through in the highlights, there's like 10+ that didn't.

On the other hand, if he doesn't get set up for too many easy goals, and still manages 8% from generally difficult spots, that could be pretty good. We'll see.

Oshie has ~10% career shot percentage. I'm pretty excited to see what he can do in the Caps' top-6 -- guy seems like an all-around capable player, exactly what the doctor ordered as a complementary top-6 piece :)
 

Alexander the Gr8

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May 2, 2013
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I think most surprising thing with that video is that I don't get how Williams got all those goals. His shot isn't dominating, its not over-powering, hell it doesn't even seem that great yet he just seems to find the back of the net.

It's a deceptive quick release. He just lets it go as quickly as possible and it trickles through. Most of his goals are rebounds though. It will be good for Burakovsky and Kuznetsov to have a guy who crashes the net like that.

I see a lot of similarities with Ward.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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I think most surprising thing with that video is that I don't get how Williams got all those goals. His shot isn't dominating, its not over-powering, hell it doesn't even seem that great yet he just seems to find the back of the net.

Hockey sense. He knows how to get to the high percentage areas and make himself dangerous without the puck. It's something the top line has been lacking for a while, and it's why I think Williams is the ideal fit for 1RW, not Oshie.
 

supersonic jet

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Jun 22, 2014
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Hockey sense. He knows how to get to the high percentage areas and make himself dangerous without the puck. It's something the top line has been lacking for a while, and it's why I think Williams is the ideal fit for 1RW, not Oshie.

Would a trade for Buff at the beginning of the season or at trade deadline if your close to the cap be a fit. Would take a 2016 1st and Bowey. Buff might be enough to put Caps in finals.
 

ryan519*

Guest
Yea, trade for Buff if you want another hot head ribeiro type. Buff has such a ****** attitude and he cheap shots like crazy. We already come into the postseason every year with the refs against us, we don't need to add his reputation into the mix. He's the kind of guy that will let his emotions take over and commit a horrible penalty with 2 minutes left in the game
 

JenniferH

Holts Did It
Nov 7, 2013
644
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Georgia
I still can't wrap my brain around the fact that out of all the hockey players who aren't Caps, we actually signed 2 of the 5 that are my faves (and 1 of those 5 I wouldn't want--Lundquist, because, well, Holtby). I really have good vibes about Williams and Oshie, especially Williams. I think they're gonna be a great fit. And the more and more we see and hear about them, the better I'm feeling about how they'll fit.

I am SO excited about next season!! :banana: :banana:
 

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