Prediction Contest: Toronto Maple Leafs 2018-2019: Contender or Pretender?

[Drytoast]

Montreal is hilarious. They don't have a complete rebuild team yet. They can't go deep with the talent they have. Why the hell are they not tanking for one more year to get another solid piece or two???

 

[SprDaVE]

7 mins in

Thanks.

Hard to disagree though when you see Tampa Bay (comparison made) being a smaller team (they are) and other top teams that have contended without being known for being a very big or physical team. The Penguins are another team like that or even the Caps (they did have Wilson but after him...).

Being heavy doesn't mean hitting and even Babcock specifically said so. I think it's completely fair to say that pure physicality isn't a problem right now, it's the quality of the back end and not being heavy enough on the puck and on the forecheck. Physicality wouldn't change either one of these things.

You might disagree with this new school line of thinking but more and more this is how the NHL is. It's how you adapt and overcome.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

How is that not relevant ?

If that line can play as well as the Boston top line, Leafs have the edge with depth of forwards by quite a bit.

You are pretending that because our Top line plays well against other teams they can play well vs Boston.
And it doesnt work out that way.

 

[RubberHead]

Leafs are definite pretenders.
If they make the playoffs, first round exit.
The blow up doll will reappear.
Cue the Jaws Music.

 

[egd27]

I think they'll finally beat BOS in another hard fought 7 game series but subsequently lose to the Caps in 6 games of the 2nd round .

If they beat Boston in the first round, there's almost no chance they face WSH in the second round.

 

[18leafsfan18]

You are pretending that because our Top line plays well against other teams they can play well vs Boston.
And it doesnt work out that way.

You honestly think Boston is on a level that our lines can no longer play with them ?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

You honestly think Boston is on a level that our lines can no longer play with them ?

No.

In the parity salary cap era, all teams have a chance.
I'm saying, it is quite unlucky that the team we struggle against the most is our most likely first round opponent.

I think we just dont matchup well vs. Boston. Their heavy forecheck just creates havoc for our weakish D. Their ability to control the puck in our zone against our smallish non contact D is a liability. Matthews and Nylander got owned last year by Bergeron and Pastrnak. I cant see it being much different this year.

Andersen could steal the series. So could Rask. Lots of things can happen. I think Boston would get destroyed by Tampa Bay. I think the Leafs have a much better chance vs Tampa Bay. But I think the Leafs are less than 50% likely to beat Boston.

Boston vs Tampa Bay.

 

[coupe93]

Thanks.

Hard to disagree though when you see Tampa Bay (comparison made) being a smaller team (they are) and other top teams that have contended without being known for being a very big or physical team. The Penguins are another team like that or even the Caps (they did have Wilson but after him...).

Being heavy doesn't mean hitting and even Babcock specifically said so. I think it's completely fair to say that pure physicality isn't a problem right now, it's the quality of the back end and not being heavy enough on the puck and on the forecheck. Physicality wouldn't change either one of these things.

You might disagree with this new school line of thinking but more and more this is how the NHL is. It's how you adapt and overcome.

Appreciate your thoughtful response, but we will probably never agree on this. Yes, the game has changed but not to the point where support players with sandpaper and grit are no longer needed. BTW, TBay hasn't won anything yet, and it would not surprise me if they do go ahead and pick up exactly this at or before the TDL.

I think people confuse and downplay Pittsburgh's last SCWT because they didn't have a goon on that roster. This is true (nobody wants these players anymore, myself included), but they had and still do have sandpaper. Their 2 best players are a good example of this. Washington's SCWT certainly had size and sandpaper. I concede the balance in today's NHL has shifted, but there still needs to be some balance incorporated, which on this team is not enough IMHO.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

or maybe not.

heh.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Oops.

 

[Drytoast]

When we played Tampa and Boston, I thought we outplayed both teams. They just both found a way to win, or more importantly we found a way to lose. We can beat these teams. We can beat these teams 4 out of 7. We just need to get past the "padding stats for better contracts" mentality and get more into the "compete to f***ing win something" mentality.

 

[SprDaVE]

Appreciate your thoughtful response, but we will probably never agree on this. Yes, the game has changed but not to the point where support players with sandpaper and grit are no longer needed. BTW, TBay hasn't won anything yet, and it would not surprise me if they do go ahead and pick up exactly this at or before the TDL.

I think people confuse and downplay Pittsburgh's last SCWT because they didn't have a goon on that roster. This is true (nobody wants these players anymore, myself included), but they had and still do have sandpaper. Their 2 best players are a good example of this. Washington's SCWT certainly had size and sandpaper. I concede the balance in today's NHL has shifted, but there still needs to be some balance incorporated, which on this team is not enough IMHO.

Gritty players and sand paper will always be part of the game. It's important not to value that over skill, speed and the ability of moving the puck though --- which is what Dubas and what a lot of people are trying to argue. I do not believe for one second that our forward group is missing a gritty player, they just need to play with more urgency and as Babcock says, more heavy. Hyman, Tavares, Kadri, Johnsson, Kapanen, etc all play pretty gritty games on the forecheck (or at least most of the time). Our biggest problem is that our RHD defenders right now are pretty bad and it isn't because they are "soft" either.

Tampa Bay hasn't won anything yet, just like the Caps didn't win anything before they actually did and it's not like they acquired a massive amount of grit and sand paper here. We didn't lose in 7 games to Boston because of grit just like Tampa Bay didn't lose to Boston last season because of their lack of grit either (they won in 5 games). Andersen had a 3.76 GAA and a sub .900% save percentage in those 7 games... if he puts up his regular season average, we're probably in the 2nd round. Tampa Bay is on pace to break the cap era in points earned in the regular season... Heck, I'm pretty sure they are on pace to break a lot of point records for the past few decades.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

The roster is good. January games dont dictate playoff success... I think with a couple of deadline deals we will still be one of the contenders

 

[18leafsfan18]

No.

In the parity salary cap era, all teams have a chance.
I'm saying, it is quite unlucky that the team we struggle against the most is our most likely first round opponent.

I think we just dont matchup well vs. Boston. Their heavy forecheck just creates havoc for our weakish D. Their ability to control the puck in our zone against our smallish non contact D is a liability. Matthews and Nylander got owned last year by Bergeron and Pastrnak. I cant see it being much different this year.

Andersen could steal the series. So could Rask. Lots of things can happen. I think Boston would get destroyed by Tampa Bay. I think the Leafs have a much better chance vs Tampa Bay. But I think the Leafs are less than 50% likely to beat Boston.

Boston vs Tampa Bay.
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I understand that there are some matchup difficulties with the Leafs vs Boston, but you were specifically saying the Marner Taveres line is not relivent to beating Boston.

Looking at last year vs this year, if Boston's top line can beat out the Matthews line in the same way, but now Leafs have another line capable of scoring as much as Boston's first line, how do the Leafs not have a better chance to win ?

Leafs top 2 lines are way better then they were last year (with adding Tavares).

This is based on Nylander and Matthews being invisible in the playoffs. Which I assume will not be the case

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I think with a couple of deadline deals we will still be one of the contenders

When was the last deadline deal the Leafs have had that was useful ?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Boston's first line, how do the Leafs not have a better chance to win ?

Of course that is true.
Matthews didnt step up last game.
Had 2 crazy good chances and didnt score.
He could have.

 

[SprDaVE]

When we played Tampa and Boston, I thought we outplayed both teams. They just both found a way to win, or more importantly we found a way to lose. We can beat these teams. We can beat these teams 4 out of 7. We just need to get past the "padding stats for better contracts" mentality and get more into the "compete to ****ing win something" mentality.

That's a logical way of approaching it. It's not like they played like they did against the Avs. They played hard and those games could have easily gone either way. You can play a perfect game, full of grit and scoring chances and still lose a game. That's hockey.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

When was the last deadline deal the Leafs have had that was useful ?

We also have a GM in his first year with the Leafs and are in the first year of our cup window, so maybe we should throw out the history books?

 

[18leafsfan18]

We also have a GM in his first year with the Leafs and are in the first year of our cup window, so maybe we should throw out the history books?

When talking about the Leafs if its a history book from after 1967 we should throw all of them out.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

We also have a GM in his first year with the Leafs and are in the first year of our cup window, so maybe we should throw out the history books?

You didnt answer my question.

Throw out history books ..... for ... what ... reason ????

 

[lebdafor norris]

If they beat Boston in the first round, there's almost no chance they face WSH in the second round.

Tampa-Pitt and TOR-WSH is how I see things play out if the Leafs gets past the Bruins, Murray's up and down season will likely cost Pittsburg a higher seed.

 

[coupe93]

Gritty players and sand paper will always be part of the game. It's important not to value that over skill, speed and the ability of moving the puck though --- which is what Dubas and what a lot of people are trying to argue. I do not believe for one second that our forward group is missing a gritty player, they just need to play with more urgency and as Babcock says, more heavy. Our biggest problem is that our RHD defenders right now are pretty bad and it isn't because they are "soft" either.

Tampa Bay hasn't won anything yet, just like the Caps didn't win anything before they actually did and it's not like they acquired a massive amount of grit and sand paper here. We didn't lose in 7 games to Boston because of grit just like Tampa Bay didn't lose to Boston last season because of their lack of grit either (they won in 5 games).

Philosophies will differ, we will not agree but, yes grit did play a major part in losing to Boston (still does) and I did watch the TBay vs Boston series and was surprised and thought TBay matched Boston physically throughout that series. Not going to argue our RHD issues because there is no argument, they are weak, and unable to position and clear the front effectively. No jam.

Washington had one major issue for many years, Pittsburgh. Washington's SCWT roster could not remotely be compared to what we ice in terms of grit, size and ability to win board battles. It's no secret that teams are employing a physical game while playing our team, and lately this has been very successful. It won't get easier in the playoffs when space is limited and speed easier neutralized. Board battles.

There is no definitive right or wrong in debates of this nature, there are simply different ways of looking to achieve a goal. History may prove me wrong, but as of now I'm not seeing it so.

 

[8816 others]

If the Leafs are pretenders, how do we view this season overall in relation to the long story arch of the rebuild?

Is this season a write-off? Is it a step in the right direction? A step back? Any playoff experience is good for the team no matter the outcome?

In hindsight, would you have moved JVR, Bozak, or Komarov at last season's deadline if it meant having assets which could be part of a trade fix the current problems with this team?

 

[PromisedLand]

First round exit again. Called it at the beginning of the year (we're too soft) that too many of our players disappear when we play hard-hitting, tough teams. Our team needs to start standing up for each other and if nothing changes we'll continue to be a first round exit team.

I watch Boston play and when the smallest guy on the ice (Krug) gets his ass kicked for coming to the aid of a team mate I realize how far our team has to come. Their whole team plays like this which is why our mentally weak team has so many issues with them.

I'm not saying we need meatheads but we need a couple heavy hitting grinders and a tough as nails defenseman that put the team first instead of themselves. It tends to rub off on players.

i remember pastrnak dropping gloves when bergeron was hit blindside last season; wonder if willy would ever do something like that? or at least score ppg to hurt other team(s) on the scoreboard at least

 

[egd27]

Tampa-Pitt and TOR-WSH is how I see things play out if the Leafs gets past the Bruins, Murray's up and down season will likely cost Pittsburg a higher seed.

You have 2 divisional crossovers in the 2nd round.....I'm pretty sure there can only be one, unless both wild card teams crossover and upset the Divisional winners. But since you have Tampa in the 2nd round.....that didn't happen in your scenario.