Prediction Contest: Toronto Maple Leafs 2018-2019: Contender or Pretender?

[Nineteen67]

If this team, as currently constructed , was a true contender and actually won a Cup playing like they had in the first half, then I think we could all agree winning the Stanley Cup would no longer be considered the toughest to win in sports. I’m not saying it would be tainted but it wouldn’t be like previous winners.

In other words they’ll have to seriously up their game.

 

[wingman75]

Normally I would say this is just us being pessimistic... but you guys watch all the games, as I do, and we are all seeing the same thing it seems.

We are close, like real close. Just a few pieces away. We can debate on what those are, but we all see that there is something missing. Be it intensity, or more willingness to do whatever it takes its something...

The one thing perhaps is that this is yet another learning year, which I am okay with if the guys on the roster take away the right lessons and apply them next season. The core is really young... and the potential is still so high... so I guess I am holding out hope for that.

But for this season, I don't see us beating anyone in the first round unless Frederik stands on his head (possible).

 

[lebdafor norris]

I think they'll finally beat BOS in another hard fought 7 game series but subsequently lose to the Caps in 6 games of the 2nd round .

 

[I Believe]

Wasn't long ago Pittsburgh won with Justin Schultz as their #1D.
Also watched the Kings squeak in as a #8 seed and proceed to dominate everybody.

I doubt their fans thought they were winning the cup going into the playoffs.

I'll vote contenders cause I think we're a great team. Have to wait and see what happens

 

[HamiltonNHL]

0.5% miss playoffs

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

3.3% and rising !



We wont catch Tampa Bay so finishing first is gone.

To avoid Boston:
We'd ideally see Boston finish was a wild card team and Montreal finish 3rd (Leafs 2nd).
If we are the top Wild card team, we will likely play Columbus or Washington - Bottom Wild card team plays Tampa (which seems worse than Boston).


Best case scenario is Boston tapering off, Montreal playing well, and we meet them in the first round.
Or finish top wild card team, beat CBJ, Montreal beats Boston, and we play Montreal in the semis.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Pretender.
Odds say first round exit. But I voted with my heart.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I think they'll finally beat BOS in another hard fought 7 game series

How ?

Andersen stands on his head and Rask chokes ?
Matthews matches up against Bergeron and Tavares goes nuts on Kreiji ?

 

[Mess]

Dubas inherited a 105 point team and signed Tavares, so he didn't make it worse.

The problem is also he didn't make it a lot better either because he either refuses to, or does not recognize Leafs weaknesses in team build and player composition.

A team is only as strong as its weakest link, and if you have flaws they will be exploited.

Toronto 58 points
Boston 57 points
------ Wild Card ------
Montreal 57 points
Pittsburgh 56 points
----- Non Playoffs ----

Very little wiggle room here at present and 6 weeks to the trade deadline.

 

[ShaneFalco]

With a few minor tweaks - contender
Dubas had to see what he's got in the pipeline. This isn't a race

 

[18leafsfan18]

I was referring to their lack of toughness and some players unwillingness to compete. This will be the 3rd playoffs for these guys, so they are gaining experience, I just don't think they have the right make-up to be a true contender.

I don't think toughness is a necessity as much anymore in the playoffs. Don't get me wrong the game does change a bit in playoffs without a doubt.

I think its being overstated because Washington won last year.

Was everyone talking about toughness as much for the Penguins in their back to back cups ?

 

[18leafsfan18]

How ?

Andersen stands on his head and Rask chokes ?
Matthews matches up against Bergeron and Tavares goes nuts on Kreiji ?

Last year as most have stated on this board Matthews and Nylander were invisible and Boston's top line was lights out.

If they play better plus we added Tavares, why wouldn't they have a better chance to win ?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Last year as most have stated on this board Matthews and Nylander were invisible and Boston's top line was lights out.

If they play better plus we added Tavares, why wouldn't they have a better chance to win ?

I've never seen any Leafs line do all that well vs Bergeron's line. Tavares didnt do that well. I think I matchup Matthews vs Bergeron.

And hope Tavares + Marner score alot.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I've never seen any Leafs line do all that well vs Bergeron's line. Tavares didnt do that well. I think I matchup Matthews vs Bergeron.

And hope Tavares + Marner score alot.

Based on the season so far they should.

They are within a few points of the Bergeron line (Can't find the actual numbers, but it was a graphic on the broadcast on Saturday i think).

 

[HamiltonNHL]

They are within a few points of the Bergeron line (Can't find the actual numbers, but it was a graphic on the broadcast on Saturday i think).

Not relevant.

The matchup is what matters. The Leafs dont matchup well vs the Bruins. Their top line has performed very well for them vs. Leafs.

 

[Advanced stats]

Undetermined if we're contenders or pretenders.

If this team plays like they give a shit, than yes, we can best any team on any night.

If we get this half ass brand of hockey that we've seen for stretch's this year, than no, we're a pretender who can beat most teams still, but still a pretender

 

[hoglund]

They'll make the playoffs, but because of the playoff loss format, a first round exit is possible.

 

[Duffman955]

Glaring weaknesses are more obvious in this season than last.

Lack of intensity, unwillingness to play a heavy game, not willing to sacrifice the body.

After Komarov left, the PK has been shit. Lost some glue guys this offseason and it shows.

 

[coupe93]

First round exit if they make the post season, unless more balanced changes are made and soon (which I've developed serious doubts will happen).

Can't expect lamb to turn into lions, some things just cannot be taught. If Dubas is unwilling to acknowledge that this team isn't constructed for any playoff run as is, Shanahan should be stepping in. This team has contender level high end skill players that are surrounded by porous soft defensemen and even softer secondary role players.

Dubas presser where he states; (I paraphrase) "I look at the game sheet and see our team being larger than our opponents on most nights, and think the notion of needing sandpaper is over stated. What we need is skill and quick puck movement" (or words to that effect). A statement like this should provoke questions from upper management.

 

[SprDaVE]

First round exit if they make the post season, unless more balanced changes are made and soon (which I've developed serious doubts will happen).

Can't expect lamb to turn into lions, some things just cannot be taught. If Dubas is unwilling to acknowledge that this team isn't constructed for any playoff run as is, Shanahan should be stepping in. This team has contender level high end skill players that are surrounded by porous soft defensemen and even softer secondary role players.

Dubas presser where he states; (I paraphrase) "I look at the game sheet and see our team being larger than our opponents on most nights, and think the notion of needing sandpaper is over stated. What we need is skill and quick puck movement" (or words to that effect). A statement like this should provoke questions from upper management.

That's quite the paraphrasing. What presser are you alluding to where he said this?

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

Midseason slump, no big deal.

Does nobody remember that we started out basically the exact same way last season? We burst out of the gate and were trouncing teams at an unsustainable rate, then we had a midseason slump and things started to normalize. We still finished with a great season overall.

If you'll remember Tampa also ran white hot the first half of last season, pacing for the record point totals that's they're pacing for right now, then after the All Star break cooled off considerably. Vasilevskiy got overworked and tired, Kucherov went from a similarly torrid pace to 43 pts in his last 42 games or something like that.

This season so far is almost a carbon copy of last year for both teams. In other words we'll be just fine, and Tampa is human too. They will bank points now and slow down second half same as they did last year.

No reason to panic. At all

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Montreal is +4 but somehow has 57 points. 3 games ahead of Toronto and 2 ahead of Boston and Pittsburgh ... but still .... they must be winning alot of one goal games.

 

[18leafsfan18]

View attachment 176359

Montreal is +4 but somehow has 57 points. 3 games ahead of Toronto and 2 ahead of Boston and Pittsburgh ... but still .... they must be winning alot of one goal games.

Or just when they lose they get blown out. I haven't looked at their box scores though.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Not relevant.

The matchup is what matters. The Leafs dont matchup well vs the Bruins. Their top line has performed very well for them vs. Leafs.

How is that not relevant ?

If that line can play as well as the Boston top line, Leafs have the edge with depth of forwards by quite a bit.

 

[coupe93]

That's quite the paraphrasing. What presser are you alluding to where he said this?

7 mins in

 

[ChurchOfMatthews]

First round exit again. Called it at the beginning of the year (we're too soft) that too many of our players disappear when we play hard-hitting, tough teams. Our team needs to start standing up for each other and if nothing changes we'll continue to be a first round exit team.

I watch Boston play and when the smallest guy on the ice (Krug) gets his ass kicked for coming to the aid of a team mate I realize how far our team has to come. Their whole team plays like this which is why our mentally weak team has so many issues with them.

I'm not saying we need meatheads but we need a couple heavy hitting grinders and a tough as nails defenseman that put the team first instead of themselves. It tends to rub off on players.