Confirmed Trade: [TOR/LAK] Kyle Clifford (@ 50%), Jack Campbell for Trevor Moore, 2020 and cond. 2021 3rd round picks

[YP44]

I don't love it for LA. I think LA would have been better off buying out Quick this offseason and rolling with Campbell / Peterson next year. Now if they buy out Quick they need to sign a veteran, which is not a huge deal, but I thought they liked Campbell and thought he could potentially be more than a backup. He had a sv% of .928 last year which is why they gave him that deal.

A 2nd an a 3rd is nice return but LA really should get out from Quick this offseason and doesn't need more picks really.

have you done the buyout calculator on quick?

 

[RANGERS13ADL]

This is a great trade, NOT saying they got great players, but they received some of what they needed. both ways of course but Im focusing on Leafs.

Leafs received a gritty 3rd rate scorer who is wanted mostly for the gritty part of the game and any scoring is an added bonus
Leafs received a hutch like goalie with slightly more potential but you fill the void and have a slight upgrade and added term

Leafs lose next to nothing in moore
Leafs lose a 3rd or a 30% chance of having a mediocre 3rd-4th line NHL player
Leafs lose a 3rd or a 30% chance of having a mediocre 3rd-4th line NHL player
so maybe 60% chance they get another moore maybe? Scouts and development will determine this

LA is rebuilding so they need all the %%% possible

This makes perfect sense for all with very little cost

 

[Cotton]

At least show his best fight.

Polak's not a fighter though, he gets his ass kicked whenever he has to.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

and what if LA didnt want to do the trade months ago?

Thats Dubas' problem to solve. The most important part of a good GM is the ability to convince other GMs to trade you what you want.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

LA doesn't need to get out from Quick. LA is where they are in the standings largely because they traded a lot of high picks from 2011-2016 in order to win the cups and try to stay competitive, and they drafted relatively poorly with the picks kept in that time. As a result, LA's crop of 22-26 year olds is quite weak, meaning there aren't really any significant RFA raises due over the next few years. The strength of the prospect pool is from all the high picks and stockpiled draft picks from 2017-2019 (and soon to be 2020). All these 20 and under players have ELCs that keep sliding.

The point being, LA has 5 mil in cap space now, will likely shed a few more vets by the deadline, but won't have any significant need for Cap space until Turcotte, Vilardi, Kupari et. al. reach RFA. At which point Brown and Carter's contracts will have expired. Its better to keep absorbing Quick's cap hit now when we have no need for space than to buy him out and extend the liability.

have you done the buyout calculator on quick?

I linked to it. It's not that bad

Jonathan Quick Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Basically $1 million for 3 years starting the 2023-24 season is the extra cap hit. Buying him out isn't about saving money in the next three years so much as getting out from under him and moving forward, especially starting next season when you may start some guys on their ELCs and are getting ready for next iteration of the Kings.

Quick is gonna get bought out at some point most likely, doing it next year and rolling with Campbell/Peterson would have been a very reasonable time to do it.

 

[Liferleafer]

Thats Dubas' problem to solve. The most important part of a good GM is the ability to convince other GMs to trade you what you want.

I don't know if you are the guy saying Dubas failed in the offseason by not getting a backup, but Dubas traded for Hutch in 2018...and when Sparks played like shit, they called him up. In 5 starts last season he went 2 and 3 with a .904 sv%. I think Dubas thought he had a decent backup...i mean he had over 100 NHL starts with Jets/Panthers, and other than his 4 starts in Florida, he's always had a .903 or better sv%. There was no indication that he was going to be as awful as he was in the offseason.

 

[redcard]

I linked to it. It's not that bad

Jonathan Quick Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Basically $1 million for 3 years starting the 2023-24 season is the extra cap hit. Buying him out isn't about saving money in the next three years so much as getting out from under him and moving forward, especially starting next season when you may start some guys on their ELCs and are getting ready for next iteration of the Kings.

Quick is gonna get bought out at some point most likely, doing it next year and rolling with Campbell/Peterson would have been a very reasonable time to do it.

We don't need to get out from under him and move forward. Petersen will back him up until he wins the role and Quick can assume the back-up spot for the duration of his contract. Why would we buy him out just to sign a different veteran back-up? There's no benefit. His salary drops significantly next season anyway, if he's unhappy collecting a paycheck as a back-up he can retire. Meanwhile, we'll gladly take the assets back from the Campbell trade and eat Quick's cap hit now rather than have a $1 mil liability on the books for an extra 3 years.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I don't know if you are the guy saying Dubas failed in the offseason by not getting a backup, but Dubas traded for Hutch in 2018...and when Sparks played like ****, they called him up. In 5 starts last season he went 2 and 3 with a .904 sv%. I think Dubas thought he had a decent backup...i mean he had over 100 NHL starts with Jets/Panthers, and other than his 4 starts in Florida, he's always had a .903 or better sv%. There was no indication that he was going to be as awful as he was in the offseason.

Its his job (with input from his pro scouts) to predict whether or not Hutchinson would be adequate or not. The fact that the player he brought in sucked is a reflection of his poor evaluation.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

We don't need to get out from under him and move forward. Petersen will back him up until he wins the role and Quick can assume the back-up spot for the duration of his contract. Why would we buy him out just to sign a different veteran back-up? There's no benefit. His salary drops significantly next season anyway, if he's unhappy collecting a paycheck as a back-up he can retire. Meanwhile, we'll gladly take the assets back from the Campbell trade and eat Quick's cap hit now rather than have a $1 mil liability on the books for an extra 3 years.

You wouldn’t at this point. I’m speaking about a hypothetical alternative plan to trading Campbell. If Quick approaches Cory Schneider territory he’ll go to the AHL and presumably be bought out though.

 

[redcard]

You wouldn’t at this point. I’m speaking about a hypothetical alternative plan to trading Campbell. If Quick approaches Cory Schneider territory he’ll go to the AHL and presumably be bought out though.

Ok, but we want the assets from trading Campbell. Whether its Campbell or Quick in the role of competition/back-up to Petersen makes little to no difference. But Campbell had trade value. Take the 3rd and keep Quick as back-up instead of Campbell is a better option than foregoing the pick and buying out Quick.

 

[crassbonanza]

Leafs lose next to nothing in moore
Leafs lose a 3rd or a 30% chance of having a mediocre 3rd-4th line NHL player
Leafs lose a 3rd or a 30% chance of having a mediocre 3rd-4th line NHL player
so maybe 60% chance they get another moore maybe?

This is such an odd way to look at picks, if 3rd round picks are only worth a 30% chance of drafting a replaceable 4th liner, why would GM's even bother keeping them? The reality is that mid round picks are worth a lot more than that, because you could very easily draft someone like a Shestyorkin in the 4th round.

 

[shortfuze]

Thats Dubas' problem to solve. The most important part of a good GM is the ability to convince other GMs to trade you what you want.

You don’t actually believe this do you?

 

[RANGERS13ADL]

This is such an odd way to look at picks, if 3rd round picks are only worth a 30% chance of drafting a replaceable 4th liner, why would GM's even bother keeping them? The reality is that mid round picks are worth a lot more than that, because you could very easily draft someone like a Shestyorkin in the 4th round.

With proper scouting and development I completely agree... plus you need the opportunity for them to success in minors and the N. But those are the stats... So if we grade active players by their stats then may as well use those principals for picks also. The actual GM's do. We look at a 3rd or 4th as a high probability of a "shetsy" or a number of others who broke outside that box. But we dont name the other 28 that never see any real time in the N...

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Ok, but we want the assets from trading Campbell. Whether its Campbell or Quick in the role of competition/back-up to Petersen makes little to no difference. But Campbell had trade value. Take the 3rd and keep Quick as back-up instead of Campbell is a better option than foregoing the pick and buying out Quick.

Campbell has upside that Quick doesn't have though, which is why the Kings gave him that extension, and Dubas went after him instead of a one year backup to fill in his goaltending hole. Right now I'd guess Dubas isn't going to extend Andersen for what he'd get on the open market at least so Campbell could very well be a crucial Leaf for that transition.

It's not a huge deal, don't mean to overstate my point, but there was some chance Campbell was gonna be a key player of the Kings when they became competitive again, and keeping him / buying out Quick would have been a fine way to deal with the logjam.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Have you been seeing the headlines on tsn.ca Nd sportsnet?

Yes

 

[crassbonanza]

With proper scouting and development I completely agree... plus you need the opportunity for them to success in minors and the N. But those are the stats... So if we grade active players by their stats then may as well use those principals for picks also. The actual GM's do. We look at a 3rd or 4th as a high probability of a "shetsy" or a number of others who broke outside that box. But we dont name the other 28 that never see any real time in the N...

Those aren't the stats though. A 3rd rounder is not just a 30% chance at drafting a replaceable 4th liner. You may not have great odds in acquiring a high end player, but artificially limiting the ceiling to show how low the value is is asinine. In your world, the Rangers trade away the 4th that became Shesty, because that 4th round pick has no value.

 

[Choralone]

This is my favorite Clifford fight, though it's ages ago....

 

[Leaf Fans]

Tsn.cs current headline

'C0

Leafs sit 2 pts out of a playoff spot.

Riddle me this batman. Why is tsn now spinning the playoffs are slam dunk?

You are spinning it that way. What is wrong with the headline?

 

[Nithoniniel]

This is such an odd way to look at picks, if 3rd round picks are only worth a 30% chance of drafting a replaceable 4th liner, why would GM's even bother keeping them? The reality is that mid round picks are worth a lot more than that, because you could very easily draft someone like a Shestyorkin in the 4th round.

Easily? The chance that you draft a Shestyorkin with a late round pick is what, 1 in 50? Each draft pick in itself is not worth a lot, but you want as many lottery tickets as possible because if you do cash in on one, that can be huge for building a contender.

 

[Blowfish]

Can’t wait for the leaf “he’s a turtle” comments for Clifford. Backes may be the better skater.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Its his job (with input from his pro scouts) to predict whether or not Hutchinson would be adequate or not. The fact that the player he brought in sucked is a reflection of his poor evaluation.

Hutch was fine when he got here. I don't think anyone expected him to exclusively play the 2nd half of back-to-backs under Babcock.

 

[RANGERS13ADL]

Those aren't the stats though. A 3rd rounder is not just a 30% chance at drafting a replaceable 4th liner. You may not have great odds in acquiring a high end player, but artificially limiting the ceiling to show how low the value is is asinine. In your world, the Rangers trade away the 4th that became Shesty, because that 4th round pick has no value.

You keep saying 4th line, I, and you can reread the quote, stated 3rd or 4th line.. And yes, 2% chance of a superstar. Now do this math.. Every team drafts 7 players every year(in theory as they may have traded picks). So 217 players drafted into the system, maybe a few undrafted sign into the system.. 220 players in, I don't think 220 retire from the NHL every year so most prospect won't really get much chance unless they can supersede an NHL player. I like the idea that shesty is a superstar but 5 games into his NHL career is premature although he looks great and I'm excited for him..

 

[Leaf Fans]

Hutch was fine when he got here. I don't think anyone expected him to exclusively play the 2nd half of back-to-backs under Babcock.

Hutch was brought in for the AHL when Andersson went down with a n injury and Kaskisuo was called up to back up Sparks.

 

[crassbonanza]

Easily? The chance that you draft a Shestyorkin with a late round pick is what, 1 in 50? Each draft pick in itself is not worth a lot, but you want as many lottery tickets as possible because if you do cash in on one, that can be huge for building a contender.

I understand the success rate of later round picks. My argument was over the artificial ceiling of replaceable 4th liner.

 

[Reaper45]

Can’t wait for the leaf “he’s a turtle” comments for Clifford. Backes may be the better skater.

Honestly dont think I've seen a worse hot take on here in some time.