Confirmed Trade: [TOR/CAR] Marleau, 2020 1st Rd. (Top 10 Prot.) & 2020 7th Rd. to CAR for 2020 6th Rd. [PART 2]

[Eisen]

Dubas’ best move of the summer was protecting this pick

I don't get how trades like these are made. What's the incentive for the receiving to take a crapshoot first rounder?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I don't get how trades like these are made. What's the incentive for the receiving to take a crapshoot first rounder?

1. its a really deep draft, potentially. even pick 25 is a good pick this year
2. if not, you get a chance at any pick the following year
3. The Canes arent in win at all costs mode yet so, its an okay use of cap space
4. above all else 1st rounders are good trade chips for good players
5. you build a long term winning team with good players and consistently bringing up good player through the system. 1st round picks are more likely to be those guys.

 

[Jerkob Slavin]

well we can be pretty sure he never wore a canes jersey as a kid.

Nobody dreams of growing up to be a jerk. It just happens.

 

[TBF1972]

Bud, the Leafs ain't the Lakers. They're the Knicks.

if the leafs are the knicks, what are the rangers? do they even exist?

 

[Eisen]

1. its a really deep draft, potentially. even pick 25 is a good pick this year
2. if not, you get a chance at any pick the following year
3. The Canes arent in win at all costs mode yet so, its an okay use of cap space
4. above all else 1st rounders are good trade chips for good players
5. you build a long term winning team with good players and consistently bringing up good player through the system. 1st round picks are more likely to be those guys.

That is all true. But top 10 is really a lot. I get top3 protection, but to get a sure fire player outside the top 10 already takes a little luck. Good for the Hurricanes that they were willimg to pay for a first rounder, though.

 

[Lempo]

I don't get how trades like these are made. What's the incentive for the receiving to take a crapshoot first rounder?

It's either 2020 11OA-31OA or a 2021 1st of any position, so it's not that bad. You can calculate an estimated value for the pick (and the propability of which draft it will be); if you think the value is there the trade may happen.

 

[Deen]

Marleau has been good. Not sure what "you people" think.

 

[Larry44]

It's top-10 protected. So Carolina will at best get the 11th overall pick which will be a good player, but not an immediate impact kind of guy.

Understood, but 11 or 12 is a great add to a solid roster... Leafs could use a guy like that.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

That is all true. But top 10 is really a lot. I get top3 protection, but to get a sure fire player outside the top 10 already takes a little luck. Good for the Hurricanes that they were willimg to pay for a first rounder, though.

A first round pick is a first round pick.

The Hurricanes are going to be contenders for a bit, that pick will either be a player that hopefully can contribute for them on an ELC, or trade capital for another player that they hope can put them over the top.

It's an easy decision to make in my opinion.

 

[Fourier]

11-15 still lottery, ya?

Technically yes. But the generic implication calling it a lottery pick is that it provides a chance to move to 1,2 or 3. If I hold a ticket for a lottery but if it's a winner I have to give the ticket back to its original owner calling I a lottery ticket doesn't make it more valuable.

It's a deep draft. If the Leaf's miss and it is in the 11-15 range its still a valuable pick. Though I expect they will eventually turn things around and make the playoffs. And I say this despite being far from a fan of the team.

 

[BB88]

Dubas’ best move of the summer was protecting this pick

Tells all about how garbage the summer was.

 

[oooooooooohCanada]

I'm not debating that. My debate is, if Tavares doesn't sign and Dubas doesn't overpay 3 players that contract would be fine for just 1 more year.

I'd rather pay a 1st and get Tavares than not pay a first, not have tavares, and have Marleau on the team right now.

 

[Space umpire]

I'd rather pay a 1st and get Tavares than not pay a first, not have tavares, and have Marleau on the team right now.

But if you don't pay Tavares you likely get Matthews and Marner for 1.5 million less each, kept Kadri and had money. ... Last summer you could have added Panarin AND defensemen who know how to play defense.

 

[3headeddragon]

But if you don't pay Tavares you likely get Matthews and Marner for 1.5 million less each, kept Kadri and had money. ... Last summer you could have added Panarin AND defensemen who know how to play defense.

Woah. When did Panarin say he would sign with the Leafs?

 

[Strangelove]

Woah. When did Panarin say he would sign with the Leafs?

Well he might have if the Leaves had the cap space (didn't sign Tavares + paid less to M + M)

Maybe that was what Space Umpire was getting at...

 

[3headeddragon]

Well he might have if the Leaves had the cap space (didn't sign Tavares + paid less to M + M)

Maybe that was what Space Umpire was getting at...

So you've got an elite player that is a center willing to sign but you want to go for the mystery box of an elite player that may or may not sign but is also not a center.

This isn't even close to logical for a team that is short centers.

 

[Strangelove]

So you've got an elite player that is a center willing to sign but you want to go for the mystery box of an elite player that may or may not sign but is also not a center.

This isn't even close to logical for a team that is short centers.

Again, I was just guessing what Space Umpire was getting at.

But now you've gone and said "a team that is short centers".

They had Matthews and Kadri as their top 2 centres.

One could argue they needed a (cheaper) 3rd line centre, not an (expensive) "elite" centre.

 

[Reality Check]

if the leafs are the knicks, what are the rangers? do they even exist?

Rangers won the cup in '94 and have made the SCF in the past decade. Advantage Rangers.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Woah. When did Panarin say he would sign with the Leafs?

He didn't. We are not on an ocean. Besides, the Leafs signed their FA the year before. Anyway, hopefully we will trend upwards and the Canes will get our pick this year.

 

[Space umpire]

He didn't. We are not on an ocean. Besides, the Leafs signed their FA the year before. Anyway, hopefully we will trend upwards and the Canes will get our pick this year.

I think we all want the Leafs to trend upwards. With the leaf cap situation next year well known it is crucial the Leafs don't walk away with a cost controlled solid defender with a top 10 pick.
Plus, we all can't watch them lose in the 1st round if they don't make the playoffs.

 

[The Podium]

But if you don't pay Tavares you likely get Matthews and Marner for 1.5 million less each, kept Kadri and had money. ... Last summer you could have added Panarin AND defensemen who know how to play defense.

So let me see if I understand you.... If the Leafs didnt sign Tavares for $11 mill, they couldve kept Marleau and have the cap space to sign Panarin at 11.6 mill and add a D?

Wow... With that alternative Dubas really frigged up

 

[KevinRedkey]

I'd rather pay a 1st and get Tavares than not pay a first, not have tavares, and have Marleau on the team right now.

Alternate history:
Keep Kadri, Gardiner, Marleau, and the 1st instead of Tavares (Barrie and Kerfoot would be gone too). Save some cap by signing Marner and Matthews to smaller deals. Have even more cap space next year once Marleau is gone.

It's not definitely better, but it's at least arguable.

 

[Space umpire]

So let me see if I understand you.... If the Leafs didnt sign Tavares for $11 mill, they couldve kept Marleau and have the cap space to sign Panarin at 11.6 mill and add a D?

Wow... With that alternative Dubas really frigged up

You don't understand me. Try harder. Sure you move Marleau but face the facts, the only reason Matthews got AS MUCH as he did was Tavares got it 1st. Then Marner, whose value is a bit less than Matthews had to get a bit less.
All summer Leaf fans laughed claiming other teams also would be in cap hell because (this phrase was used here a lot) THE RFA LANDSCAPE HAD CHANGED ... Some tried to tell you all that it really only changed in Toronto.
So now you have your big 3, an awful defense and a bunch of guys who will expect raises over the next year or 2.
The few good ones you can't really afford to pay what they are worth nor can you afford to bring in qualified help.

 

[themelkman]

You don't understand me. Try harder. Sure you move Marleau but face the facts, the only reason Matthews got AS MUCH as he did was Tavares got it 1st. Then Marner, whose value is a bit less than Matthews had to get a bit less.
All summer Leaf fans laughed claiming other teams also would be in cap hell because (this phrase was used here a lot) THE RFA LANDSCAPE HAD CHANGED ... Some tried to tell you all that it really only changed in Toronto.
So now you have your big 3, an awful defense and a bunch of guys who will expect raises over the next year or 2.
The few good ones you can't really afford to pay what they are worth nor can you afford to bring in qualified help.

I dont really agree that they wouldve been better off not signing tavares. He would have got 13 mil in SJ and Matthews would probably still want his 11

 

[Menzinger]

I dont really agree that they wouldve been better off not signing tavares. He would have got 13 mil in SJ and Matthews would probably still want his 11

The suggestion that Tavares impacted any rfa negotiations is 100% completely unsubstantiated.

The Leafs added a top 10 centre in the league, and at worst it cpst them a 1st round oick to dump Marleau.

If folks started threads asking if Marleau + 1st round pick is worth a 1C. Theyd be laughed out of the forum...