Eklund Rumor: TOR and VAN in a dogfight for Hanifin

[Brock Radunske]

I really like Kapanen but it looks a bit low to me. Nylander would be an overpayment for sure.

[mod] take it for what it's worth but I agree with you.
Nilendar>Hanafan>Karpenen

 

[tarheelhockey]

I kind of want to get a custom jersey with HANIFAN or HINIFIN on the back.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

[MOD] Kapanen for Hanifin? Lmfao

 

[gabeliscious]

Eklund is saying Carolina wants Kapanen for Hinifin.

As sheltered and average as Hanifins been, I'd still love to add him. The Leafs need a steady JBo-type.

leafs dont think twice about moving kapanen for hanifin imo

 

[Liferleafer]

I kind of want to get a custom jersey with HANIFAN or HINIFIN on the back.

Rolls off the tongue easier IMO.

 

[Liferleafer]

[mod] take it for what it's worth but I agree with you.
Nilendar>Hanafan>Karpenen

I'm in "tuna" with what you are saying.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

This guy lecturing Canes fans about Canes players usage. How many Canes games did you watch last year?

By your logic then the only conclusion is that Haydn Fleury was actually the top-4 D, right? Because "He spent the majority of his time on the 2nd pair" with Faulk? Hanifin only "filled in for Fleury" when he was scratched for Dahlbeck?

So is 21 year old top-4 Haydn Fleury more valuable than Hanifin? Or maybe you really don't know what you are talking about?

The real answer is that the 1st/2nd/3rd pairing played very similar minutes and were often in flux. It shifted significantly throughout the year. It is silly to try and break the Canes defense down into 1st/2nd/3rd pair. Not even Slavin-Pesce were kept together for the entire year. Peters was a line/pairings blender.

Im certain I didn't watch as many games as you but I'm using stats that aren't really subjective.

Other Canes fans have said in this thread or the other one on the trade boards that Hanifin was heavily sheltered on the third pairing with TVR...

Regarding the bolded, now I understand why your getting so defensive. I really couldn't care less about Hanifin's theoretical value in some imaginary trade.

All I said was Hanifin was largely used on the third pairing with a very high amount of offensive starts and low QoC (relative to his team too). A bunch of Carolina fans have posted charts/stats the last few days in these threads that show exactly that. I'm not trying to devalue him so I can 'win' a random trade on the internet lol, I just don't like when people make shit up about young players. Many leaf fans do it with Dermott too.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Eklund is saying Carolina wants Kapanen for Hinifin.

As sheltered and average as Hanifins been, I'd still love to add him. The Leafs need a steady JBo-type.

I would do that trade. He still has the potential to play top pairing and that is a bargain so I would just make it work. Maybe shift Dermott to the right side or something

 

[tarheelhockey]

Im certain I didn't watch as many games as you but I'm using stats that aren't really subjective.

Other Canes fans have said in this thread or the other one on the trade boards that Hanifin was heavily sheltered on the third pairing with TVR...

Regarding the bolded, now I understand why your getting so defensive. I really couldn't care less about Hanifin's theoretical value in some imaginary trade.

All I said was Hanifin was largely used on the third pairing with a very high amount of offensive starts and low QoC (relative to his team too). A bunch of Carolina fans have posted charts/stats the last few days in these threads that show exactly that. I'm not trying to devalue him so I can 'win' a random trade on the internet lol, I just don't like when people make **** up about young players. Many leaf fans do it with Dermott too.

I wouldn't say he was "heavily sheltered". He played in a context where Jaccob Slavin munches the hardest minutes every night and Haydn Fleury is offensively hopeless (0-8-8 in 67 games). So as the only LHD who has a spark of offense in his game, Hanifin is going to get a lot of offensive zone draws. That means he skated easier minutes, yes, but not because he was necessarily being sheltered. In the context of a hockey game he was called upon in the role of a middle-pair defenseman, doing middle-pair defenseman things.

In terms of who he is as a hockey player, beneath the shoulders he is visibly one of the best athletic specimens you'll find. Watch him skate and that becomes obvious very quickly. He's smooth, handles the puck well, does everything at a pretty high level. Above the shoulders, he has a lot of growing to do. We often joke that he comes off like the villain in a Mighty Ducks movie, a dumb jock type. He doesn't play a thinking game and that leads to him getting posterized on occasion. But at a young 21 (January birthday) we're talking about a guy who's still younger than a lot of rookies, and he has almost 250 games of experience already. He's looked considerably better every year. If he keeps looking considerably better, he's going to be a top-pairing guy in short order. Whether he hits that #1D potential is anyone's guess, but that ceiling is still very much a reality for him considering he only needs to stay on his current track and learn to think the game a little better. In that sense, he's like a smaller/kinder version of a young Chris Pronger.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I wouldn't say he was "heavily sheltered". He played in a context where Jaccob Slavin munches the hardest minutes every night and Haydn Fleury is offensively hopeless (0-8-8 in 67 games). So as the only LHD who has a spark of offense in his game, Hanifin is going to get a lot of offensive zone draws. That means he skated easier minutes, yes, but not because he was necessarily being sheltered. In the context of a hockey game he was called upon in the role of a middle-pair defenseman, doing middle-pair defenseman things.

He may not have needed to be sheltered but the implications on his stats by having a pairing like Slavin's eating up all the tough defensive zone stats is large.

Your shot differential, generation, suppression etc is heavily influenced by your zone starts due to the high relative probability of a shot for when starting in the offensive zone and a high relative probability of a shot against when starting in the defensive zone.

Again I'm not saying he needed the level of sheltering he got, however when you look at his advanced stats you have to use the context of his zone usage or else stats like Corsi lack any meaning.

This all started because a poster said Hanifin would easily push Gardiner down a pairing next year and I was crazy to think other wise.

Edit: to me it is strange to basically say that a player didn't need sheltering so I'm going to ignore it's effects on his stats.

 

[Stormcrow]

Hanifin is not what the Leafs need

 

[tarheelhockey]

He may not have needed to be sheltered but the implications on his stats by having a pairing like Slavin's eating up all the tough defensive zone stats is large.

Your shot differential, generation, suppression etc is heavily influenced by your zone starts due to the high relative probability of a shot for when starting in the offensive zone and a high relative probability of a shot against when starting in the defensive zone.

Again I'm not saying he needed the level of sheltering he got, however when you look at his advanced stats you have to use the context of his zone usage or else stats like Corsi lack any meaning.

This all started because a poster said Hanifin would easily push Gardiner down a pairing next year and I was crazy to think other wise.

Edit: to me it is strange to basically say that a player didn't need sheltering so I'm going to ignore it's effects on his stats.

I don't think you ignore the effects on his stats (or his non-statistical performance in general) but I do think the word "sheltered" carries a connotation that doesn't quite apply here.

 

[ToneDog]

Hanifin is not what the Leafs need

Perhaps today, but if you think the kid has a chance to be a stud and you are buying low, why not ?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I don't think you ignore the effects on his stats (or his non-statistical performance in general) but I do think the word "sheltered" carries a connotation that doesn't quite apply here.

Fair enough, I don't like the word sheltered as it has a subjective definition.

I was just trying to explain why high offensive zone usage influences advanced stats and why it doesn't make sense to say things along the lines of, a player has great shot suppression stats but you see they start 60+% of their zone starts in the offensive zone.

 

[thepuckmonster]

Assuming the logical Horvat, Pettersson + Boeser are off the table, what actual assets do we even have to get close to Hanifin value?

I highly doubt Carolina is super interested in foundational Sutter the redux + a bunch of ehhhh players

 

[Joe McGrath]

I don't think you ignore the effects on his stats (or his non-statistical performance in general) but I do think the word "sheltered" carries a connotation that doesn't quite apply here.

When Skinner and Ryan are your most common forward linemates, you were not “sheltered”. You were screwed.

 

[Liferleafer]

When Skinner and Ryan are your most common forward linemates, you were not “sheltered”. You were screwed.

I counter with JVR/Bozak....(Didn't look it up, they just super-suck at defense)

 

[Joe McGrath]

I counter with JVR/Bozak....(Didn't look it up, they just super-suck at defense)

I’m not sure what you are countering but ok

 

[slimbob8]

No I don't. Larsson returned Hall. Marner or Nylander is beyond reasonable given past trades.

And Erat returned Forsberg. What's your point? Teams sometimes make bad trades.

 

[slimbob8]

Do any Canes fans even think a deal could be worked around Kapanen+ for Hanifin or is that a non-starter as a base? I see a lot of chatter about it and it seems way too low from my view unless the plus was significant. I'm very high on Hanifin.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

All I said was Hanifin was largely used on the third pairing with a very high amount of offensive starts and low QoC

He wasn't the 3rd pairing lhd. That was either Fleury or Dahlbeck. Hanifin was the #4.

Hanifin got a bunch of ozone starts because Slavin Pesce with Jordan Staal was thrown to the wolves, and Fleury sucks offensively. If anyone was being sheltered on Hanifin 's unit, it was Jeff Skinner and Derek Ryan.

Again I'm not saying he needed the level of sheltering he got, however when you look at his advanced stats you have to use the context of his zone usage or else stats like Corsi lack any meaning.

That's a pretty big leap, no?

 

[spockBokk]

Do any Canes fans even think a deal could be worked around Kapanen+ for Hanifin or is that a non-starter as a base? I see a lot of chatter about it and it seems way too low from my view unless the plus was significant. I'm very high on Hanifin.

Sure Kapanen plus Reilly works.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

He wasn't the 3rd pairing lhd. That was either Fleury or Dahlbeck. Hanifin was the #4.

Hanifin got a bunch of ozone starts because Slavin Pesce with Jordan Staal was thrown to the wolves, and Fleury sucks offensively. If anyone was being sheltered on Hanifin 's unit, it was Jeff Skinner and Derek Ryan.



That's a pretty big leap, no?

How can that be true when Faulk, the 2nd pairing RHD played primarily with Fluery and TVR the 3rd pairing RHD played primarily with Hanifin. Those sets of players have similar zone usage and QoC which further points to them playing as a pairing together for the majority of the season.

I'm not saying Hanifin needed that level of zone usuage and I get why it happened (I.e. Slavin pairing being a very good shutdown pairing). However you need to look at his zone usage when looking at his stats.

No I don't think it is a big leap. I will give you an example. One player gets 65% offensive zone use and gets really good shot suppression stats another player gets 40% offensive zone use and gets moderate but worse shot suppression stats. If you look at it at face value you would think that the first player is a better shot suppressing defenseman. However, that is likely not the case as the first player is being used in a siutation that has a lot lower expected shots against due to the lower probability of a shot against when starting in the offensive zone.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

No I don't think it is a big leap.

You went from "skewed zone starts affect corsi numbers", which is fine, to "skewed zone starts make corsi worthless", which is a gigantic leap.

Your example, really a justification, is good for the former, but not the latter.

I'll go into detail later, but the short answer is: labeling Hanifin the 3rd ld requires context because of his usage on the canes, hence why some fans have a problem with it.

 

[bluedevil58]

Do any Canes fans even think a deal could be worked around Kapanen+ for Hanifin or is that a non-starter as a base? I see a lot of chatter about it and it seems way too low from my view unless the plus was significant. I'm very high on Hanifin.

No.