Maplebeasts
I See Demons!!!!!
2021 first and Abramov sound enticing enough for Rakell? Do not want to move any of Amirov/Sandin/Liljegren/Robertson. I'd be fine adding a second rounder next year if need be.
Speculation: Top 6 Winger to the Leafs
- Thread starter Cor
- Start date
The only guy on the Canucks that might fit the bill and they might give up is Miller, but with his contract the price would be high. Probably a 1st and a high-end prospect at the min, though obviously cap would be an issue. Honestly Miller seems to fit exactly what you guys want and can shift to center for the 3rd line as well
OVO16
#WeTheNorth
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1st is much more likely. 2nd has almost no chance of happening.
Also take in the fact that we have to match Salaries as we're extremely tight against the Cap. But I would be willing to include a 1st for Greenway.
OVO16
#WeTheNorth
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Leaf Fans
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2017
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Leaf Fans
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2017
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Leaf Fans
Registered User
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Yes, they would have to. I like Stroke, and as you said he is from the area. For a 2nd round pick we would need it like a lot of it as Hyman is a pending UFA as is Andersen- we gotta keep one of them and hopefully it is the home town guy.
ottomaddox
Registered User
In my reality the cap hit is about 80% paid by the deadline and teams can retain up to 50% of the remaining salary making the remaining cap hit about 10%
In this example a guy like Tanner Pearson would cost 375K with 50% retained at the deadline.
375K is nothing you don't need to trade Nylander to make 375K work.
ottomaddox
Registered User
I see your point, but this is the most near-perfect choice to add to the top 6. The choices are so narrow as it is. These players have to be available in the first place.
I am not head strong on moving Nylander, but at the same time it does allow for a lot more flexibility. Also it allows for not just 1 or 2 players, but many. I say that because Nylander is not a bum and his contract is good. Dubas cannot not offer up Kerfoot and hope to get Krieder. If Dubas wants good quality, then some quality has to go the other way.
No chance that gets done, IMO. He's 27, with one of the best contracts in the NHL relative to value and he's two years removed from scoring 33 and 35 goals... The Leafs would probably need 50% retention from the Ducks as well...
That's going to cost at least a top 5 prospect and a 1st, with Engvall a part of the deal to make the money work heading into next year.
Our 1st round pick projects to be bottom of the barrel this year. If it were top 10-15 maybe we could get away with a "B" prospect like Abramov going back the other way, but they'll want one of Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson or Amirov and I think that's a reasonable ask.
MAYBE you could get the Ducks to bite on something like
Engvall (to make the money work)
Abramov / Hirvonen
Hallander
2021 1st round pick
2022 2nd round pick
But I hate moving that many assetts more than just parting with Liljegren and leaving Sandin and Niemela in the system to develop... We have a top 4 that is set for a while upon Reilly's extension. If there is a time you can afford to move Liljegren to get an appropriate winger for the top 6, this is it.
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TheKrebsCycle
Throwing Confetti for Perfetti
Hed be a useful add but to say he has one of the best contracts in the NHL? Yikes , maybe if his scoring rate hadnt dropped so starkly. He's not physical and average defensively. I like the fit overall but paying through the nose won't happen (1st plus Amirov). 1st plus a non blue chipper is very reasonable imo. Maybe he gets his touch back with better surrounding skill, maybe he doesn't.
I don't think that is reasonable for the Ducks. They'll be retaining about 50% in any perspective deal, meaning Toronto will be on the hook for only about 1.9 million of that cap hit in 2022. Perfect for Toronto's cap situation. That's why I suggested him having one of the league's best deals.
That kind of deal (not a rental) will require a 1st + blue chip prospect. Alternatively, if you want to give the Ducks a B prospect like Hirvonen or Hallander, they're rightfully going to want a nice package of picks... And I'm not talking 3rds and 4ths.
TheKrebsCycle
Throwing Confetti for Perfetti
I just don't see the value. 20 goal (rounded up due to shortened season) scorers at 3.8 cap hit seems like very average cap to production ratio, especially in this climate. I understand the retention aspect but can't get there . The prospects you listed , along w guys like Kuokonen, Vietti maybe Niemela (very good prospects, especially the latter 2 )might shake loose but I'd expect Amirov, Sandin, Robertson to be sticking points. They need these guys to help supplement depth w the big boyz taking such a large chuck of the pie .
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Ducks will retain 50% so that cap hit is going to be 1.9 million, which is excellent. Rackell also is 2 years removed from scoring 33 and 35 goals and playing with Tavares and Nylander would give him the best linemates of his career and he'd play on one of the two PP units that Toronto splits time between.... 25 goals should be the minimum expectation in 2022, for a player who will be 28, with a 1.9 million dollar cap hit.
That's not a cheap player to trade for, IMO. While the Leafs shouldn't be quick to move a Liljegren or Amirov quality player, they also have to be realistic what a player of Rackell's quality should cost.
HockeyVirus
Woll stan.
- Nov 15, 2020
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Are we trading for Rakell or a damn superstar? Lord have mercy, this would be one of the worst trades in the last few years. Especially seeing as he is basically a 40-50 point winger outside of that one year.
And the other thing is, just stating he scored 33 and 35 goals means nothing when it comes with 15 assists. Leafs don't NEED goals, they are weird unlike other teams. Tavares just scored 47 goals, Willy was on pace for 35+ last year, Matthews was on pace for 56 goals. Marner is on pace for 35 goals this year.
We need guys who can make space on a top 6 line and have enough skill to make some plays with these guys. They don't need to be the heavy lifter of the line by any means, but they need to fix that problem. Rakell would be a nice add don't get me wrong, but he is not a player you put a package like that out there for.
WhatTheDuck
9 - 20 - 8
Rakell has proven he's more than your average 20 goal guy. He has back to back 30 goal seasons under his belt, has produced at a 70+ point clip. You need to apply a lit bit of context when evaluating a player, he's been able to produce at a 50+ point pace on a team that was completely offensively inept the past couple years. Easily a 30 goal type guy when actually surrounded by other top line talent. 30 goal wingers (who can also play center) making under 4M with another year on their deal - good luck convincing a team to trade one of those without a great return.
TheKrebsCycle
Throwing Confetti for Perfetti
Hes 27. They are going to pay for what he is, not what he was. Retention or not I guess I just don't agree that this caliber of player Is worth the price you're outlining. Maybe they get a higher end prospect, but a worse pic: I just don't see the combined 1st plus top 5 prospect ( in a fairly strong pool ) appeal.
Rackell, at 50% retained, is 1.9 million in 2022. That's a ton of value. I appreciate that you're a Leafs fan, but you wanting to throw fringe guys, that have a 50% chance or less of making the NHL (Abramov) and who are highly unlikely to even be near what Rackell is now, as the known centerpiece of the deal.... That's insulting to the Ducks.
Take Amirov for example. If he turns into a 25+ goal scoring, bonafide top 6 winger, us Toronto fans would gladly take that given where he was drafted... That's what Rackell is right now and projects to be for a number of years to come... Why would Rackell not fetch something of that value back, especially when they're willing to retain?
Before you get into retention I think anyone would have trouble arguing that Rakell with an extra year is demonstrably more valueable than a big, two way 2-3 defenseman with cup pedigree with an extra year (Muzzin).
Price on Muzzin was 1st + two good but not great prospects, late 2nd rounders that were tracking well.
Price on Muzzin was 1st + two good but not great prospects, late 2nd rounders that were tracking well.
HockeyVirus
Woll stan.
- Nov 15, 2020
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I think you are mistaken about how trades are generally valued, or rather we disagree on the subject. This is where our issue lies. You ignore potential in your evaluation as well as their value of ELC players and their RFA status. Rakell might make 1.9 for 1.5 seasons, but then he will make much more and might not even stay. If you are getting back multiple pieces who project to be NHLers, you are getting back cheap NHL players who you own the rights of for the next half decade.
And if Amirov did become a 25+ goal top 6 winger (which I think the Leafs believe his ceiling is much higher, which you are not accounting for), you still get this piece for even cheaper than the 1.29 and for 1.5 years longer. Then you retain his rights for an addition 3-5 years. On top of this, you are also wanting an additional first round pick, a 2nd round pick, and additional pieces depending on the deal I've seen you suggest a few.
You can't just say "Well they aren't NHLers right now so we can devalue them and expect their ceiling to be my player". You need BOTH teams to agree on the projection of the player, and BOTH teams to be ok with that projection vs the value they want. Otherwise, no deal gets done involving that player.
And finally, Rakell is not the best target out there, and not the only one. They might very well end up with him, but it will be because the deal makes the most sense for the Leafs. If it doesn't, then they will move on and find another guy who averages 50 points and plays the kind of game they want and they will make the salary work.
