Speculation: Top 6 Winger to the Leafs

[IrishInOntario]

Hes 27. They are going to pay for what he is, not what he was. Retention or not I guess I just don't agree that this caliber of player Is worth the price you're outlining. Maybe they get a higher end prospect, but a worse pic: I just don't see the combined 1st plus top 5 prospect ( in a fairly strong pool ) appeal.

Ok then, what is he?

Over his 5 years in the NHL, Rackell has averaged..

24 goals
26 assists

That's what the numbers tell you. He's been a 50 point player, on a bad team, where he has little help. Toronto would likely be getting him for 1.9 million for the rest of this year and into next year.

What's 1.5 years of a career 50 point player, in his prime, at a 1.9 million dollar cap hit worth?

I think it's more than some of you have been proposing. I definitely think it involves Toronto's late 1st round draft pick, and like it, or not, it's going to involve a prospect that Toronto HOPES is as good as Rackell is, some day.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Rakell has proven he's more than your average 20 goal guy. He has back to back 30 goal seasons under his belt, has produced at a 70+ point clip. You need to apply a lit bit of context when evaluating a player, he's been able to produce at a 50+ point pace on a team that was completely offensively inept the past couple years. Easily a 30 goal type guy when actually surrounded by other top line talent. 30 goal wingers (who can also play center) making under 4M with another year on their deal - good luck convincing a team to trade one of those without a great return.

Hes scored less than 20 in back to back years and tracking to do so once again. So he's fairly far removed from being a 30 goal guy . We live in a what have you done for me lately world and the NHL is no different. As mentioned before he doesn't bring a ton of intangibles/defensive ability so I don't believe he's a guy that pushes the needle significantly. He'd be a good add id just be very careful with the price given decline in perceived play. A nice compliment to a top 6. Additionally the extra year isn't all that helpful given he'd potentially be an expansion draft casualty.

 

[IrishInOntario]

I think you are mistaken about how trades are generally valued, or rather we disagree on the subject. This is where our issue lies. You ignore potential in your evaluation as well as their value of ELC players and their RFA status. Rakell might make 1.9 for 1.5 seasons, but then he will make much more and might not even stay. If you are getting back multiple pieces who project to be NHLers, you are getting back cheap NHL players who you own the rights of for the next half decade.

And if Amirov did become a 25+ goal top 6 winger (which I think the Leafs believe his ceiling is much higher, which you are not accounting for), you still get this piece for even cheaper than the .129 and for 1.5 years longer. Then you retain his rights for an addition 3-5 years. On top of this, you are also wanting an additional first round pick, a 2nd round pick, and additional pieces depending on the deal I've seen you suggest a few.

You can't just say "Well they aren't NHLers right now so we can devalue them and expect their ceiling to be my player". You need BOTH teams to agree on the projection of the player, and BOTH teams to be ok with that projection vs the value they want. Otherwise, no deal gets done involving that player.

And finally, Rakell is not the best target out there, and not the only one. They might very well end up with him, but it will be because the deal makes the most sense for the Leafs. If it doesn't, then they will move on and find another guy who averages 50 points and plays the kind of game they want and they will make the salary work.

I never suggested a deal that involves Amirov, multiple other prospects and a 1st and 2nd... I said that if you don't want to give up a top 5 prospect, and instead want to give up a guy like Abramov (significantly lower ceiling) as the known quantity in the trade, you're going to have to add some other prospects.

I think the Ducks would entertain a package of...

Liljegren
Engvall
1st round pick

Or

Amirov
Engvall
1st round pick

I've said that all along.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I never suggested a deal that involves Amirov, multiple other prospects and a 1st and 2nd... I said that if you don't want to give up a top 5 prospect, and instead want to give up a guy like Abramov (significantly lower ceiling) as the known quantity in the trade, you're going to have to add some other prospects.

I think the Ducks would entertain a package of...

Liljegren
Engvall
1st round pick

Or

Amirov
Engvall
1st round pick

I've said that all along.

In reality is is probably more in between what we are saying. I could see

1st
Engvall
Ambramov

That would about be on par with what they paid for Muzzin, if not a bit more (depending on where the first is). They'd be willing to miss out on a potential top 9 winger who could score 60 points because he is 3-4 years away. Amirov I think they believe he can be a 70-80 point winger, maybe more. They can wait 3-4 years for that kind of player as it is not an immediate need but will be later.

But I don't think they will include much more than that. Liljegren / Sandin / Amirov / Neimela types are likely off limits. I could see them offering up

Abramov
Hallander
Hirvonen

These types of prospects who all are not C prospects, but guys around the same potential and value as Grundstrom was.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Hes scored less than 20 in back to back years and tracking to do so once again. So he's fairly far removed from being a 30 goal guy . We live in a what have you done for me lately world and the NHL is no different. As mentioned before he doesn't bring a ton of intangibles/defensive ability so I don't believe he's a guy that pushes the needle significantly. He'd be a good add id just be very careful with the price given decline in perceived play. A nice compliment to a top 6. Additionally the extra year isn't all that helpful given he'd potentially be an expansion draft casualty.

If teams were this simple minded they wouldn't bother enjoying pro scouts. Rakell is very much still the same player based on the eye test and underlying numbers. His production is severely hindered by his surroundings and that's painfully obvious to anyone paying attention. The two 30 goal years represent the last time he had another top line player on the team. Take any current 30 goal guy and plunk them in Anaheim's lineup, and their production immediately will take a hit.

That aside, even 50 point winger has a fair bit of value. Rakell in a down year produces more than guys like Coleman and Kapanen at their best. No reason to think he wouldn't fetch as much or more.

 

[IrishInOntario]

In reality is is probably more in between what we are saying. I could see

1st
Engvall
Ambramov

That would about be on par with what they paid for Muzzin, if not a bit more (depending on where the first is). They'd be willing to miss out on a potential top 9 winger who could score 60 points because he is 3-4 years away. Amirov I think they believe he can be a 70-80 point winger, maybe more. They can wait 3-4 years for that kind of player as it is not an immediate need but will be later.

But I don't think they will include much more than that. Liljegren / Sandin / Amirov / Neimela types are likely off limits. I could see them offering up

Abramov
Hallander
Hirvonen

These types of prospects who all are not C prospects, but guys around the same potential and value as Grundstrom was.

Given how low our 1st is expected to be this year I could see them valuing thr known quantity and asking for...

Amirov
Engvall
2nd round pick
Depth pick

I think they're probably smart enough to know that an Amirov type talent likely won't be there at 26th+

 

[HockeyVirus]

Given how low our 1st is expected to be this year I could see them valuing thr known quantity and asking for...

Amirov
Engvall
2nd round pick

I think they're probably smart enough to know that an Amirov type talent likely won't be there at 26th+

And they will hear the sound of the phone clicking. Amirov won't be moved unless for some reason the Leafs are making a block buster trade for a foundational piece.

 

[IrishInOntario]

And they will hear the sound of the phone clicking. Amirov won't be moved unless for some reason the Leafs are making a block buster trade for a foundational piece.

If you feel that way, then great. You're entitled to your opinion. I feel that Rackell is a 25+ goal, 55+ point guy playing in Toronto, rather than for a Ducks team that is abysmal offensively. To me that is a core piece, especially when you're getting short term retention.

Toronto is trying to win now... I don't see Amirov factoring into their top 6 in the next 3 years... Each of those years would be one of Rackell's prime.

 

[HockeyVirus]

If you feel that way, then great. You're entitled to your opinion. I feel that Rackell is a 25+ goal, 55+ point guy playing in Toronto, rather than for a Ducks team that is abysmal offensively. To me that is a core piece, especially when you're getting short term retention.

Toronto is trying to win now... I don't see Amirov factoring into their top 6 in the next 3 years... Each of those years would be one of Rackell's prime.

Correction. Dubas has said the goal is to have sustainable success like many teams have had.

Matthews 23
Marner 23
Nylander 24
Rielly 26
Sandin 21

This group has a long run ahead of them still. No reason they can't be the Sharks, Blues, etc and have competitive teams for the next decade. But you don't do that by trading away assets like Amirov. Rakell is a great player but not so great as to command that.

 

[4thline]

I know the hype is swirling around a big name top 6 forward, but I think there would be better bang for the buck in one of

Ryan, Iaffalo, Haula, or Namestnikov.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Correction. Dubas has said the goal is to have sustainable success like many teams have had.

Matthews 23
Marner 23
Nylander 24
Rielly 26
Sandin 21

This group has a long run ahead of them still. No reason they can't be the Sharks, Blues, etc and have competitive teams for the next decade. But you don't do that by trading away assets like Amirov. Rakell is a great player but not so great as to command that.

And trading one prospect, who is far from a top 6 lock, does nothing to change long term plans... I think you have a better chance of Rackell scoring 25+ goals and 55+ points, 5 times between ages 27 and 32, than you do of Amirov doing the same. I'm not saying Amirov won't, only that he's nowhere near the proven commodity that Rackell is... Now, I understand the numbers. Toronto needs cheap, skilled, complimentary pieces. I'm not denying that. But 1.5 years of Rackell at 1.9 allows you to make a decision down the road. Maybe he's killing it in Toronto, Sandin and Liljegren are more than ready and you move out a player like Muzzin to free up cap space that way. Alexander Kerfoot seems like a player they'll want to get off the cap in coming years. Maybe you move on from Anderson and get cheaper there. Kessel's retention will finally be coming off the cap soon, and of course, the pandemic will end, and, eventually, the cap will increase. It's a dynamic environment, and one player doesn't change anything, unless you're talking about moving Matthews or Marner (which we aren't).

 

[IrishInOntario]

I know the hype is swirling around a big name top 6 forward, but I think there would be better bang for the buck in one of

Ryan, Iaffalo, Haula, or Namestnikov.

Don't disagree. I'm highly interested in players like that as well. If we can get another Hyman, essentially, for a cheaper price than a bigger name, I'm all for it. I just want a regular 45+ point, two way player to fill out the top 6 and make it formidable. If you can get Bobby Ryan for cheap'ish off the Red Wings, and extend him for two more years at a cheap price... Sign me up.

 

[Pyrophorus]

I personally think it is Rakell

He is the number 1 name, so far, Arvidsson #2

 

[GBLeaf]

The biggest consideration around a change is, is what you're giving up, worth the player you're getting back with the added consideration of who you will then lose in the expansion draft.

We could give up Amirov + for Rakell, but as a result, then lose someone else we want to keep

So Rakell costs Amirov + and say, Dermott.

Wouldn't do it personally.

 

[IrishInOntario]

The biggest consideration around a change is, is what you're giving up, worth the player you're getting back with the added consideration of who you will then lose in the expansion draft.

We could give up Amirov + for Rakell, but as a result, then lose someone else we want to keep

So Rakell costs Amirov + and say, Dermott.

Wouldn't do it personally.

You can give up futures to protect a player you want in expansion, or to get a team to take someone else. Happens all the time. It's definitely a consideration though, I agree.

 

[Soundgarden]

What kind of prospect would you give up if Arvidsson were made available from Nashville?

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Anyway you cut it, the Leafs are going to be losing a good player (Kerfoot, Dermott) so I’m sure it won’t stifle their plans.

If Seattle takes Kerfoot they'd be doing the Leafs a favor.

Dermott also wouldn't be a big loss - he has failed to take the next step and is vastly overrated. With vets like Bogosian & Lehtonen willing to take short term deals to be a Leaf and high potential prospects in Sandin and Liljegren close to NHL ready Leafs won't miss him.

But f the Leafs bring in a forward with term that means exposing that player or exposing one of Brodie, Muzzin or Holl which would be a huge loss. This is why bringing in a pending UFA is the route that makes the most sense. Lower acquisition cost for a pending UFA + better for expansion draft = obvious better fit.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Our powerplay is near the top of the league and can't find enough minutes for guys. Meanwhile our PK is bottom 10 and having Kerfoot, Vesey, Speeza as the #4-6 PK forwards in minutes is a major reason why.

Adding a guy who can be trusted to be among our top 4 PK forwards should be a must (in addition to adding some 5 on 5 offence). Added bonus if the guy is also a C to shift Kerfoot to the wing and not having Speeza having to take as many key PK faceoffs.

Some guys who are trusted to be among the top 4 PK forwards on their team and can also bring some offence that are pending UFAs this year:

Nick Bonino 4.1 cap hit
Travis Zajac 5.75 cap hit
Kyle Palmieri 4.65 cap hit
Mikael Granlund 3,75 cap hit
Alex Iafallo 2.45 cap hit

 

[The Grim Reaper]

Kasperi Kapanen?

 

[jaric1862]

If Seattle takes Kerfoot they'd be doing the Leafs a favor.

Dermott also wouldn't be a big loss - he has failed to take the next step and is vastly overrated. With vets like Bogosian & Lehtonen willing to take short term deals to be a Leaf and high potential prospects in Sandin and Liljegren close to NHL ready Leafs won't miss him.

But f the Leafs bring in a forward with term that means exposing that player or exposing one of Brodie, Muzzin or Holl which would be a huge loss. This is why bringing in a pending UFA is the route that makes the most sense. Lower acquisition cost for a pending UFA + better for expansion draft = obvious better fit.

uhhhh no, both guys are legit NHL players. Leafs have no Center depth AKA no one to replace Kerfoot at 3c ....also Dermott is a guy who still hasn’t reached his potential yet. He still has more to give.

Also I think you’re overrating the quality of player they are going to bring in. Don’t think it’s going to be a guy who they have to protect over Muzzin, Brodie or Holl. It’s likely someone in the same tier as Kerfoot/Mikheyev. A guy who can play up and down the lineup.

 

[Critical13]

I just realized Rakell wears 67....fate?

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

The biggest consideration around a change is, is what you're giving up, worth the player you're getting back with the added consideration of who you will then lose in the expansion draft.

We could give up Amirov + for Rakell, but as a result, then lose someone else we want to keep

So Rakell costs Amirov + and say, Dermott.

Wouldn't do it personally.

For the record i think most duck fans have said
Liljegren + 1st

Im not sure why leaf fans keep going off about amirov.

As for the dilemma... most leaf fans are acting like Seattle is going to be all over Holl if he is exposed... when the reality is Dermott would prob be the better option for seattle. and even if they had to pay them to take dermott, wouldnt likely cost much

 

[Adele Dazeem]

How about a Connor Brown reunion; if you're willing to part with your 1st round pick

 

[IrishInOntario]

How about a Connor Brown reunion; if you're willing to part with your 1st round pick

For a career average 33 point player, overpaid at 3.6 million per year? I'll give you a 2nd if Ottawa retains 50% for the length of the contract?

 

[Adele Dazeem]

For a career average 33 point player, overpaid at 3.6 million per year? I'll give you a 2nd if Ottawa retains 50% for the length of the contract?

Connor Brown playing with Matthews or Johnny easily puts up 50. That's worth a late 1st, especially at the deadline when prices become steeper.