It's not that I don't like Schmidt, I just think others have more long-term potential. Schmidt could clearly go skyrocketing up the list this year, too. For what it's worth, ISS had him at No. 50 overall (20th among blueliners) in their latest rankings.
As WashJeff mentioned, the projectibles matter more than the numbers ... but the numbers are still important, too.
Schmidt -- 6-1, 200, 4 G, 15 A, +15, 72 PIM in 47 games for a second-place (in a tough division) Tri-City team
Mestery -- 6-5, 190, 1 G, 6 A, -1, 20 PIM in 43 games also for Tri-City
Gaulton -- 6-0, 184, 5 G, 11 A, -35, 53 PIM in 54 games for a beyond terrible Erie team
Lalonde -- 6-1, 175, 6 G, 20 A, +6, 71 PIM in 58 games for Belleville, which won its division
Cuma -- 6-2, 175, 3 G, 16 A, -8, 55 PIM in 63 games for a sub-.500 Ottawa team
Schmidt vs. Mestery -- Schmidt obviously has better numbers, but they play very different roles and styles. Mestery needs to put on some weight, but you can't coach size, and at 6-5, he has a pro blueliner body already. If you're picking from a fantasy perspective, clearly it's Schmidt. But from a real-life perspective 10 years from now in the NHL, I think Mestery will be a better player.
Schmidt vs. Gaulton -- Schmidt put up .404 points per game as the No. 4 dman on a strong team in the WHL (240 goals); Gaulton put up .296 ppg as the No. 3 dman on the worst team in the OHL (Erie scored just 209 goals in the highest-scoring of the three CHL leagues). I expect Gaulton to really emerge offensive this season with Erie likely to be greatly improved with the additions of Ryan O'Reilly, Jaroslav Janus, etc. Schmidt will surely develop his offensive game, too, but Gaulton has the look of an elite offensive blueliner in the OHL.
Schmidt vs. Lalonde -- They are very comparable players and put up similar numbers on quality teams. Proabably a toss-up between these two. Lalonde is only a month older than Schmidt, so they are at similar development stages.
Schmidt vs. Cuma -- Also a toss-up -- similar numbers and size as well.
For what it's worth, Lalonde and Cuma were selected to Team Canada for the Hlinka tourney while Mestery, Gaulton and Schmidt didn't even make the initial group of 12 at the selection camp.
So don't feel insulted just because one person ranked him behind the others. Their play next year will sort all of this out.
I am not insulted, I am just not sure if people pick names out of a hat and decide to rank them based on hearsay and stats rather than what they have seen.
Numbers do not mean much in a pre-draft year season. Honestly, the only thing I take away from a player's statistical season, is whether he showed early dominance and should be labeled a top 10, 20, 30 talent. We've seen this with guys like Rick Nash and Nathan Horton who produced extremely well the year before their draft and went on to be top 5 picks the next. Everyone else IMO, whether they produced marginal numbers or decent numbers are all lumped in the same bracket. They must produce better than last year, but then again with more experience and time in the league they are expected to better their stats.
I can't believe there are still people out there who go by the age old philosophy of bigger is better. You saying Mestery will be better than Schmidt because of those reasons outlined is like saying Ben Blood should have been chosen ahead of Thomas Hickey. Mestery could certainly come around, fill into his frame and be a force. But you're projecting ALOT more with him than Schmidt.
Gaulton does not show any indications of being an elite offensive force, but more like a steady top 4 pairing guy like Michal Roszival who you can depend on.
One last thing is don't put too much stock into who was selected and who was not for tournaments like this. Take a look at the 2006 roster:
30 Cann, Trevor L/G 5'11" 184 03/30/89 Oakville, ON Peterborough (OHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
31 Leclerc, Justin L/G 6'0" 182 01/26/89 Saskatoon, SK Lethbridge (WHL) 2007 Dft/Rep. Defence/Défense
20 Doughty, Drew R/D 5'11.5" 190 12/08/89 London, ON Guelph (OHL) 2008 Dft/Rep.
14 Grant, Alex R/D 6'1.5" 185 01/20/89 Antigonish, NS Saint John (QMJHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
4 Hickey, Thomas R/D 5'10.5" 183 02/08/89 Calgary, AB Seattle (WHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
17 Katic, Mark L/G 5'9.5" 179 05/09/89 Porcupine, ON Sarnia (OHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
6 Negrin, John L/G 6'2" 185 03/25/89 West Vancouver, BC Kootenay (WHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
29 Ross, Nick L/G 6'0" 182 02/10/89 Lethbridge, AB Regina (WHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
5 Schenn, Luke R/D 6'2" 210 11/02/89 Saskatoon, SK Kelowna (WHL) 2008 Dft/Rep.
Forwards/Avants
18 Bastien, Yves L/G 5'9.5" 165 08/02/89 Dowling, ON Kitchener (OHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
11 Boychuk, Zach L/G 5'9" 160 10/04/89 Airdrie, AB Lethbridge (WHL) 2008 Dft/Rep.
23 Cameron, Bryan R/D 5'9.5" 180 02/25/89 Brampton, ON Belleville (OHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
22 Ennis, Tyler L/G 5'8" 147 10/06/89 Edmonton, AB Medicine Hat (WHL) 2008 Dft/Rep.
7 Esposito, Angelo L/G 6'1" 170 02/20/89 Montreal, QC Quebec (QMJHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
28 Fortier, Olivier L/G 5'11.5" 160 05/02/89 Quebec City, QC Rimouski (QMJHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
15 Gillies, Colton L/G 6'4.5" 195 02/12/89 Surrey, BC Saskatoon (WHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
8 King, Dwight L/G 6'3" 208 07/05/89 Meadow Lake, SK Lethbridge (WHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
26 MacMillan, Logan L/G 6'1" 184 07/05/89 Winsloe, PEI Halifax (QMJHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
16 Sonne, Brett L/G 5'11" 182 03/16/89 Maple Ridge, BC Calgary (WHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
12 Sutter, Brandon R/D 6'2" 171 02/14/89 Red Deer, AB Red Deer (WHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
10 Turris, Kyle R/D 6'0" 167 08/14/89 New Westminster, BC Burnaby (BCHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
25 Torquato, Zack R/D 5’11.5†202 06/08/89 Sault Ste. Marie, ON Saginaw (OHL) 2007 Dft/Rep.
Would you take Yves Bastien, Bryan Cameron, Brett Sonne, or Dwight King over Sam Gagner just because you got an early glimpse of them on the U18 team in August?
