Confirmed Signing with Link: Tom Wilson Part II

[Voight]

at least he's only 24 so the deal ends when he's 30. This deal at least covers only prime years.

He also had a very strong playoffs, and that has always been the problem with the Capitals, so maybe they cling to him a bit too much.

Ultimately what matters is their cap. They have to re-sign Holtby in 2 years, as well as Backstrom, and that should be a sizable raise. Ovechkin has to be re-signed in 3 years, and that will net them a bunch of cap space since he'll be around 35 years old.

So that's a tricky thing for them. If Ovechkin had 2 years left instead of 3 it would make everything easier and would forgive a few overpays. That offseason in a couple years might be tough.

Samsonov looks really good so should he continue to develop, he could replace Holtby the way Holts replaced Varlamov. That is if Holtby wants too much $$ or won't accept a shorter term deal. Caps have been pretty good at developing goalies - Kolzig, Neuvrith, Varlamov, Holtby, Grubauer.

Ovy & possibly Backstrom will both make less on their next deals so that will greatly help the Caps -- especially if they are still competitive, Ovy may say F it and take a 5 million dollar discount.

Im probably the biggest Lucic hater on HF and I would still take Lucics contract with ease. Lucic averages more goals per year than Wilson averages total points.

Barely, if you consider the last couple years.

 

[Portable Mink]

Your right, those 3 players are not the same as Wilson because those 3 players were all legitimate top 56 players.

Btw, most forward **** their statistical peak at age 24-25 and decline from there. So odds are, Wilson has actually peaked offensively, which is incredibly sad. Atleast those other players peaked at 55-60 points and declined from there

This is simply not true for bigger players.

But hes not good enough for the top line. Plenty of coaches play bad players higher than they should. Lucic played on the top line/2nd line for the past 2 seasons despite being a third line level player

That makes zero logic. A top line player is a player on a top line. If he wasn’t good enough for the top line, he wouldn’t play on it! And he did. And we won the cup...... he is not an old cooked Lucic.

He could learn to fly and become superman. I'd lean more on the history of never being able to produce, even when paired with stars. Just me though.

There's a lot of overpaid guys in the league. TB has more than a few. Doesn't mean the fans don't love the player or that he isn't a good player. Just means he's overpaid. There's some kind of weird disconnect in this thread where people are linking overpaid with garbage player. I think a player like Wilson is very replaceable and worth somewhere between 3-4. He got more. Shout out to him. I like it when players can get their share or more, especially in hockey.

None of that changes the fact that he's overpaid right now. Cap keeps going up, or he finally decides to produce after 5 years in the league, it might be ok.

He’s not. Name 3 players, heck 2 that play like Tom. There’s no one. He is in a category on his own.

Massive cope. But only time will tell I guess. I mean it took Oiler fans 2 years to realize what I was trying to tell them back in 2015, so it looks like itll take Caps fans that long too. Just how LA kings fans loved the Brown deal, Hawks fans loved the Bickell deal and Leafs fans loved the Clarkson deal, itll be a tough lesson for Caps fans

Brown was about 29 and higher % of cap
Bickell was 27ish and not like Wilson at all
Clarkson was about 29 too and also a higher % of the cap. Your logic is terrible.

You're right, we should also take into account all the seasons he wasn't playing on the first line.

You could if you want to be obtuse. It wouldn’t ever help you make a good decision about contracts and player worth however.


At the end of the day, we wanted him for term. That says a lot about what the coaches and management think about his ability and future.

 

[LordNeverLose]

not to mention there's not another player in the league who everyone fears

I'm pretty confident Ross Johnston is not afraid of him

 

[txpd]

This guy could collect a hockey puck for every point hes scored in his NHL career and not even fill up a shoebox

The guy was 5th in even strenth points last season playing a partial season on the 1st line. He was 3rd in evp and 2nd even strenth points per game in the playoffs. He improves every season. What he did 2 seasons ago as a 4th line only player isn't relevant

 

[BeaverTail]

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As always though, people behind their computers know more than hockey experts. Never change HFBoards, never change

 

[TheAngryHank]

When was the last time 5m generated 8000 pages

 

[GoCaps2004]

Martin Biron on Twitter

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As always though, people behind their computers know more than hockey experts. Never change HFBoards, never change

And as always, hockey ‘experts’ know more than hockey GMs. Never change hockey experts, never change.

 

[BeaverTail]

The guy was 5th in even strenth points last season playing a partial season on the 1st line. He was 3rd in evp and 2nd even strenth points per game in the playoffs. He improves every season. What he did 2 seasons ago as a 4th line only player isn't relevant

I love how people use him playing on the first line and putting up less than 0.5 points/game as a positive thing. When Connor Sheary was on the first line in Pittsburgh he put up 53 points in 61 games which was top 30 in the league in points per game. That doesn't mean he is a top 30 forward in the league it just means that he was benefiting from playing on the first line. Anybody on Washington's starting roster would probably put up .5 point/game on the top line.

 

[BeaverTail]

And as always, hockey ‘experts’ know more than hockey GMs. Never change hockey experts, never change.

So every contract given out by a GM is good then? I would trust the opinion of 50 hockey experts over 1 GM any day of the year.

 

[Anomie2029]

Like most things that get argued on here - it's not as bad as it seems, and it isn't as good as others will have you think.

It's a big overpayment, but he's hardly a useless player.

 

[GoCaps2004]

So every contract given out by a GM is good then? I would trust the opinion of 50 hockey experts over 1 GM any day of the year.

nope. but just because people say things doesn’t mean it’s true! This contract isn’t as horrendous as people make it out to be, but it’s not an incredible contract either.

 

[TheAngryHank]

And as always, hockey ‘experts’ know more than hockey GMs. Never change hockey experts, never change.

Not a Caps fan but Wilsons game is strong.His numbers are not huge but he does a lot to create space for his linemates.Dude was a wrecking ball in the playoffs.
If there is a stoppage maybe he gets bought out,if not in four years this contract might not be bad.
Letang gets 7.25 for four more seasons and is garbage everywhere on the ice. There are worse contracts out there at least the Caps know exactly what they are getting and he will perform.I can't see him slacking off , dude plays like he loves hockey and hitting people.
I can think of 4-5 players on the wings I'd be rid of for wilson on that exact same deal just so I could watch him play hockey.

 

[BeaverTail]

nope. but just because people say things doesn’t mean it’s true! This contract isn’t as horrendous as people make it out to be, but it’s not an incredible contract either.

Agreed. Props to you for being able to look at both sides of things and not being blinded by bias like a lot of people on here.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Obviously not well if hes allowing them to hand out stupid ass contracts like this lol

So...GM just wins a Cup...less than 6 weeks ago.

But let’s all focus on the one contract that might be an overpayment (as we don’t know yet, hasn’t played ONE single game on the new contract)...and ignore the extremely fresh Cup win, and all the winning moves he’s made since then (look at everything else, it’s impressive). But yeah.

Your arguments are getting farther and farther from reality. Feels like I’m dealing w a Troll.

Cheers bud, we can end this discussion. You are talking out your ass now.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Well ours has yet to make one other than trading for some deadline duds here and there. Even Orpik turned out to be enough of a major cup contributor that we brought him back after being in a position to move on. Wilson's contract is in line with what he brings to the team and ends by the time he's 30. It's about the best move we could make to ensure we have a couple more shots at the cup before the core players are over the hill

In your eagerness to defend and praise all things "home team" you are missing the point.

Chiarelli actually BUILT a Stanley Cup winning team that also went to another final. He took over a bad team and added all but 1 of the main pieces himself. He didn't inherit a Vezina caliber goalie. He didn't inherit a generational HOF winger, a #1, a 1b C, a #1 D, and a bunch of other pieces that he just had to add a couple little role players to. He BUILT it.

And yet, he still made mistakes.

So if a guy who does that can make a mistake, then why in the world would you ever think that your GM is going to go through his career without a bad decision?

And if it's possible he can make a bad signing, then it's possible signing Wilson to a large $ deal despite not putting up traditional numbers may be a mistake.

You can say you like the deal and still admit that there is some real risk here and it could be a mistake. Nobody will make you turn in your Caps pillowcase and footie pjs.

 

[GoCaps2004]

Agreed. Props to you for being able to look at both sides of things and not being blinded by bias like a lot of people on here.

The capitals know they’re getting a player that has improved every single year he’s played, while being (wrongly, I think) forced to develop in the NHL during his early years instead of the AHL, which stunted his growth early on. This contract is probably a bit of an overpayment, reasonably he should have gotten between 4-4.5, But the caps wanted long-term, and Wilson didn’t. It was the opposite as compared to many teams who want short term, while the player wants long term. It was a slight overpayment that really doesn’t matter for the caps as their core is pretty squarely locked up for many years, with just about everyone at reasonable prices.

And, for what it’s worth, I think Oshie’s contract is worse.

This thread, and literally everyone is over-reacting so hard.

 

[Portable Mink]

definite troll.

 

[BeaverTail]

The capitals know they’re getting a player that has improved every single year he’s played, while being (wrongly, I think) forced to develop in the NHL during his early years instead of the AHL, which stunted his growth early on. This contract is probably a bit of an overpayment, reasonably he should have gotten between 4-4.5, But the caps wanted long-term, and Wilson didn’t. It was the opposite as compared to many teams who want short term, while the player wants long term. It was a slight overpayment that really doesn’t matter for the caps as their core is pretty squarely locked up for many years, with just about everyone at reasonable prices.

And, for what it’s worth, I think Oshie’s contract is worse.

This thread, and literally everyone is over-reacting so hard.

I personally would've thought that the Caps pushed for shorter term while Wilson wanted longer. Caps would want shorter term because they know that Wilson might be overvalued now because of 20 good playoff games where he benefited from playing with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov who wanted it more than I've ever seen anybody want the cup and put up ridiculous numbers. Caps would've wanted Wilson to prove himself on a shorter contract. But then again he could've become a UFA so it's a tricky situation because they're also buying UFA years. I would've thought Wilson would want long term to cash in after a solid playoffs.

 

[Dr Quincy]

nevermind

 

[Langway]

As always though, people behind their computers know more than hockey experts. Never change HFBoards, never change

https://nypost.com/2018/07/28/range...medium=site buttons&utm_campaign=site buttons

Yes, a threshold has most certainly been established when a 24-year-old forward who has averaged seven goals a season for his first five years in the league gets a six-year contract worth $5.17 million a year, as did Tom Wilson.

But pretty much every team in the league would have gone even higher than that to sign the dastardly menace had Washington allowed the impactful No. 43 to hit free agency two years from now, and that isn’t even up for debate.

Shrug.

 

[GoCaps2004]

I personally would've thought that the Caps pushed for shorter term while Wilson wanted longer. Caps would want shorter term because they know that Wilson might be overvalued now because of 20 good playoff games where he benefited from playing with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov who wanted it more than I've ever seen anybody want the cup and put up ridiculous numbers. Caps would've wanted Wilson to prove himself on a shorter contract. But then again he could've become a UFA so it's a tricky situation because they're also buying UFA years. I would've thought Wilson would want long term to cash in after a solid playoffs.

You can think whatever you want. But the Capitals, quite publicly, made it clear that they wanted a longer term contract. It seems that they think that Wilson is only trending up. And having seen his progression over the years, I can understand why they see that. He didn’t look out of place on the first line, and the Caps have struggled for EVER to find a winger to go on Ovi’s line. They think they’ve found it in Wilson, and it seems they don’t want to risk having to pay him more by offering a bridge deal in the short term. And they have made it clear they don’t want to lose him.

 

[BeaverTail]

You can think whatever you want. But the Capitals, quite publicly, made it clear that they wanted a longer term contract. It seems that they think that Wilson is only trending up. And having seen his progression over the years, I can understand why they see that. He didn’t look out of place on the first line, and the Caps have struggled for EVER to find a winger to go on Ovi’s line. They think they’ve found it in Wilson, and it seems they don’t want to risk having to pay him more by offering a bridge deal in the short term. And they have made it clear they don’t want to lose him.

I'm interested do you have a link or source saying they wanted longer term?

Also I don't really see progression, I see one year where he put up 35 points which could easily be an outlier. Usually when I think of progression it is a gradual improvement over a few years. This is his last 4 years:

82 games, 10 points
67 games, 17 points
82 games, 23 points
82 games, 19 points

His point per game values actually got lower and lower for three years before the last. I don't see that as progression. I see this last year as benefiting from playing on the top line.

 

[StephenPeat]

Martin Biron on Twitter

James Mirtle on Twitter

Eric Engels on Twitter


As always though, people behind their computers know more than hockey experts. Never change HFBoards, never change

Wait, wait. Which of the referenced sources is being claimed as an expert? I see a bunch of commentators who are paid for reporting throwing out their own jaded nonsense. I wonder exactly how many of those same “experts” have written at least one, if not more, pieces begging for Wilson to be suspended or suggesting he’s a goon. How many of those “experts” are really qualified to make any comments on this deal in relation to others that are likely to be signed moving forward given the new Salary Cap dynamic we’re currently transitioning to? If my professional reputation was being staked I’d at least let the guy play a single game under said contract before proclaiming the contract a pending buyout but who am I. Oh wait, I post on an internet message board do you wanna go ahead and proclaim me an expert too?

 

[GoCaps2004]

I'm interested do you have a link or source saying they wanted longer term?

Also I don't really see progression, I see one year where he put up 35 points which could easily be an outlier. Usually when I think of progression it is a gradual improvement over a few years. This is his last 4 years:

82 games, 10 points
67 games, 17 points
82 games, 23 points
82 games, 19 points

His point per game values actually got lower and lower for three years before the last. I don't see that as progression. I see this last year as benefiting from playing on the top line.

Tom Wilson and the Capitals will reach a deal. The questions: When, and for how much?

“MacLellan’s preference is a long-term deal, and Guy said discussions so far have explored “something north of four years.” Wilson, 24, has already played five full NHL seasons, making that potential term at least two years beyond when he is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2019-2020 season.”

“We’ll see what his representatives want to do,” MacLellan said two weeks ago. “I’d prefer to keep him around for as long as we can.”

———-
Developmental progression is not always realized in statistics. Stat watching does not do him justice. His game is much stronger on both sides of the puck, and he has become an incredibly responsible player who has now shown that he can put up points while being strong defensively. Again, as people noted, he gets no power play time at all. His points are all even strength, or some shorthanded.

 

[BeaverTail]

Tom Wilson and the Capitals will reach a deal. The questions: When, and for how much?

“MacLellan’s preference is a long-term deal, and Guy said discussions so far have explored “something north of four years.” Wilson, 24, has already played five full NHL seasons, making that potential term at least two years beyond when he is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2019-2020 season.”

“We’ll see what his representatives want to do,” MacLellan said two weeks ago. “I’d prefer to keep him around for as long as we can.”

———-
Developmental progression is not always realized in statistics. Stat watching does not do him justice. His game is much stronger on both sides of the puck, and he has become an incredibly responsible player who has now shown that he can put up points while being strong defensively. Again, as people noted, he gets no power play time at all. His points are all even strength, or some shorthanded.

There are other players who are responsible on both sides of the puck, get no powerplay time, are good on the PK, and put up similar offensive numbers to him. I would also not make the argument that " he can put up points"