Player Discussion Tom Wilson - Part 2

[VaCaps Fan]

Plus A+ locker room guy in the mold of Scott Stevens....

(Why won't the Caps retire Stevens' number?)

 

[RandyHolt]

Wilson is f***ing awesome. A great entertainer. I loved his epic fight in Tampa. Don't forget goading Simmonds which helped saved us from an embarrassing loss to Philly. He knows how to play on the edge extremely well. It's not as easy as it looks, especially with basically the entire hockey world minus us always waiting to scream suspension.

If I ran NBC he would be a part of the master marketing plan.

I love lines built like his. Ovi and Willy knock the D senseless and then unleash Kuzy on them. Or they can play it finesse Ovi and Kuz with Willy doing the dirty work. That line should be a marketing slam dunk for anyone with half a brain.

 

[Silky mitts]

I have no idea what you’re saying here. It’s not hard to define his value, at least IMO. He makes guys hurt. He makes guys run away. He separates men from the puck and from their A-game. He causes turnovers all over the ice. Plus he has some hands, strong D/PK skills, and hockey sense enough to play on the top line opposite the greatest LW of all time. He’s a rare player in this league because of that combo. He’s valuable, not only to the Caps but to any team. And he should get paid in the $4-5M range if he gives up UFA years.

See? Easy.

Agree with that completely just that Caps should pay $4-$4.25M because everyone has taken a discount

 

[Hivemind]

(Why won't the Caps retire Stevens' number?)

4 CAPITALS ACCUSED OF RAPE

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Willy at anything more than 4.5 long term is a big mistake IMO, therefor I don’t see GMBM making it. One of the staunchest and earliest Willy suppporters here, but I’d rather be sure and pay a higher rate in 5 years than overcommit today.

4.5 is already taking a gamble and really betting heavy that he continues to take about 2-3 more steps forward the next few times years like the significant 1 he took this past season.

I’ll say this, unless you’re expecting a career debilitating injury for Wilson, bringing up Laich is stupid.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

4 CAPITALS ACCUSED OF RAPE

I don’t think Ted Gives a shit.


The guy wasn’t a Capital long enough IMO. Played more elsewhere by a large margin than in D.C. I loved Stevens when he was here but he means nothing really as a former Cap.

 

[Calicaps]

I don’t think Ted Gives a ****.


The guy wasn’t a Capital long enough IMO. Played more elsewhere by a large margin than in D.C. I loved Stevens when he was here but he means nothing really as a former Cap.

Yeah. It’s this. Just not a difference-maker for long enough for this franchise.

 

[Brian23]

Wilson's 35 points last year were almost all at even strength which puts him 7th on the team in the stat, right ahead of Orlov and just behind a surging Eller (and somewhat sagging, injured Oshie). If we're talking Orlov money as being crazy, and TW is outscoring Orlov despite playing 50% fewer minutes, then we're also acknowledging that defenders are valued for more than points, yes? Even an offensively talented/oriented one like Orlov? So why wouldn't that standard be applied to a forward, in particular one that the rest of the league knows is a gamechanging force on the ice, who has proven his ability to elevate the top line in the league to championship status?

Come now, I compared him to Orlov because a top line defender is in general = to a top line forward, the point comparison is meaningless but even then Orlov is still more valuable then Wilson. Orlov scored 31 points playing the toughest minutes against the toughest competition the opposing team had night in and night out. Wilson didn't show any of his offensive game, really, till he was paired with 8 and 92 who were given more favorable match-ups. The greatest goals scorer the games ever seen and one of the hottest years by a player in a long time. He rode shotgun on 1A and 1B of the Conn Smythe line in the playoffs. It's easy to make the argument he was a passenger and not a driver when they were more dynamic with Vrana riding shotgun then they were with Wilson. It's also funny to me you ignore the Oshie comparison. Oshie makes what, 5.75 a year? You're gonna say Wilson is currently only 750k away from Oshie in value? A generally 20+ goal sorcerer and 50 point proven top line forward is equal to a guy who's best year is only 35 points?

Again, I love Wilson. I actually think he's got the potential to be a top 6er with attitude, some of the passes he was making in (and just before) the Pitt series were magical in my eyes, but that went away after his suspension. There's a good chance that he just ran a hot streak a the perfect time and he'll come back to earth next year. I think it's perfectly reasonable to say if he's signed long term at more then 4 million a year it's not a "good deal", it's a gamble.

 

[g00n]

Ovechkin and Kuz faced weak competition? Hmm.

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...s-edition-pt-1.2507773/page-31#post-147717213

This was my take on his money from 20 days ago. I said it would probably be 3.75M-4M. Maybe it goes up a little over 4M after some negotiations, not sure. I never argued for 4.5-5M as some are talking about and I don't really know where that comes from, so I don't actually need to talk about Orlov or Oshie comparisons.

My issues come from a lot of the rationalizations people are making about TW's value.

 

[g00n]

Re: Laich comparisons, Laich was 28yrs old and an established 20 goal guy right up until his 6 year contract before the injuries hit. He only played 9 games the following season, then 51 and 66 his last 2 years as a Cap. His contract term was long and he got hurt. It's also not the only example in history of something like that happening.

But why focus on that, except to paint a negative picture?

Nobody in history has ever doubled goals every 2 years in his early 20s and continued to develop as a top line forward? How do people propose the Caps negotiate with the Wilson camp, by saying "we don't think he's proven anything, and we aren't going to pay for a guy we think might be the next Brooks Laich". Yeah that'll go over well.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Re: Laich comparisons, Laich was 28yrs old and an established 20 goal guy right up until his 6 year contract before the injuries hit. He only played 9 games the following season, then 51 and 66 his last 2 years as a Cap. His contract term was long and he got hurt. It's also not the only example in history of something like that happening.

But why focus on that, except to paint a negative picture?

Nobody in history has ever doubled goals every 2 years in his early 20s and continued to develop as a top line forward? How do people propose the Caps negotiate with the Wilson camp, by saying "we don't think he's proven anything, and we aren't going to pay for a guy we think might be the next Brooks Laich". Yeah that'll go over well.

I agree about the Laich comparisons, they're mostly unfounded, as Wilson is only 24 years old.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

I agree about the Laich comparisons, they're mostly unfounded, as Wilson is only 24 years old.

Not to mention that, to the degree Laich's performance was adversely affected by groin issues, his primary injury occurred during the lockout, when the owners decided to not hold the games in which players had contractually agreed to participate, so he went overseas to pursue his chosen occupation. The circumstances surrounding Laich/his contract & performance - thus far, at least - are vastly different.

 

[RandyHolt]

I have always felt Laich's power play points padded his stats WRT his big contract. It was his contract and subsequent demise, that has led me to largely prefer ESP/G as a measuring stick. Total points are heavily influenced by a teams power play prowess. Dare I think our PP was near top rated back in the Laich era.

 

[maacoshark]

First of all, Wilson's not universally well-liked or respected by players, coaches, and hockey media outside of DC. Far from it. Just as much criticism and outright hatred as there is begrudging respect and gung-ho support. And that's being generous. So I don't think that poll would turn out the way you're implying. (I think you're right, but the majority of the people you're saying we should ask are folks that think Tom should go **** himself.)

Secondly, we were 2-1 without him during the suspension. His line didn't struggle offensively or defensively without him (they were actually a little better off in both categories). Small sample, sure, but also crucial games versus top-shelf competition.

And before you throw another "You're a Wilson hater!" post at me, I'm honestly a huge fan, hope he stays forever, and wish we could clone him. All I'm saying is that this idea people seem to have about Tom Wilson being transformative on our top line just doesn't prove out. He holds his own, adds a couple worthwhile elements, and drafts well off a couple superstars. But there are no statistics that indicate that he's a boon to that line offensively or defensively. He costs them a little offensively and offsets it with his physical prowess and doggedness in both ends.

It's a wash, but one that serves a purpose. I think the team's performance in those games during the suspension probably had a "Let's win it for Tom!" vibe akin to how they played without Backstrom. And there's real value to that camaraderie in a sport whose championship is won largely via that brotherhood and bunker mentality.

But the "he creates space" and "he's worth 5m all day long and more soon" stuff is overstated. He's certainly not a passenger on our top line, but his contributions there aren't all that mind-blowing, either.

Are you a politician? You could have easily said that in a quarter of the space you used up. You pretty much rip Wilson and say you arent a hater. It doesnt look like you are a fan.
Wilson isn't as disrespected as you say by the media, players and coaches. Infact a lot if players, coaches and media defended Wilson when he was suspended. With the rule changes to the game he will have tone down his playing style.
Bottom line is he is valuable to this team. I'm not sure how valuable management thinks he is. I hope they dont overpay him. I was thinking 4 mil per season would the max.

 

[maacoshark]

4 CAPITALS ACCUSED OF RAPE

I never did hear what the final verdict was on this matter. Incidents like this are tough. Did it really happen? Or is it someone trying to get money out if high profile athletes. It wouldn't be the first time it happened.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Jags never met a wall of text he disliked writing lol!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I never did hear what the final verdict was on this matter. Incidents like this are tough. Did it really happen? Or is it someone trying to get money out if high profile athletes. It wouldn't be the first time it happened.

No idea but it always seemed like a “where there’s smoke” situation to me....

Rather artfully swept under a rug maybe.

 

[maacoshark]

Jags never met a wall of text he disliked writing lol!

I noticed. I have to stop for a coffee break halfway through every time I read one of his posts.

 

[Jags]

I said it would probably be 3.75M-4M.

My issues come from a lot of the rationalizations people are making about TW's value.

And those people agree with the pricetag you're putting on him. There are people in the thread saying things like "5m all day long" and "he'll be worth 7 in a couple years." And a couple people are responding with, "That's a little much. Here are some reasons I lean more toward 4m than 5+." And those are critical things because that's how you justify paying a guy less.

Then it's, "Those are NEGATIVE things! Tom is awesome! You're a hater! Your reasons to pay him 4m are dumb. Only MY reasons to pay him 4m make any sense!" It's a lot of quibbling over nothing.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There are typically extremists on both sides. The trick to mastering HF is tuning most of them out and reading the pulse of the majority of the non-extremists.

 

[VaCaps Fan]

Jags is one of my favorite posters!

 

[maacoshark]

And those people agree with the pricetag you're putting on him. There are people in the thread saying things like "5m all day long" and "he'll be worth 7 in a couple years." And a couple people are responding with, "That's a little much. Here are some reasons I lean more toward 4m than 5+." And those are critical things because that's how you justify paying a guy less.

Then it's, "Those are NEGATIVE things! Tom is awesome! You're a hater! Your reasons to pay him 4m are dumb. Only MY reasons to pay him 4m make any sense!" It's a lot of quibbling over nothing.

I think Wilson is only worth 4 mil per season. I love his game. Love what he brings to the team but I just dont see him being a 5 mil player. Not yet anyway.
Jags, you have to remember these are just opinions. Not everyone's opinion is going to be the same. Opinions aren't factual so no opinion is right or wrong.
Once Wilson signs then we will know which opinions are close to being accurate. I think both sides want long term but I'm not sure they are so on the dollar value. I think they will end up meeting in the middle with the length and dollar amount.
I'm guessing 2 or 3 years and the dollar amount 4 to 4.25 mil per season. A longer deal for more money is too high if a risk for the Caps.

 

[Jags]

Jags never met a wall of text he disliked writing lol!

I post about once every other day, only when I feel strongly about something. Replies get wordy when I feel misunderstood or compelled to defend a point. I apologize if that bugs you. I'll work on it.

 

[VaCaps Fan]

It’s all good, HFCaps board rules with everyone’s input!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I post about once every other day, only when I feel strongly about something. Replies get wordy when I feel misunderstood or compelled to defend a point. I apologize if that bugs you. I'll work on it.

No need to apologize (for this).

Gotta have a thick skin around here, but I bust chops in jest. You’re extremely verbose. I know I’ve mentioned it before. If you’re in a debate it just becomes exhausting to observe or participate in. I guess I pride myself in being susinct among others things. . It’s all good.