Player Discussion Tom Wilson - Part 1

[third man in]

A long term deal for Willy at, say, 5m per, has the potential to be the best or worst contract on the team in a couple of years. Power forwards are SO hard to project. Especially for a guy like Wilson, whose breakout happened playing with Ovie and Kuzy. Would he be the same player at 3RW? Probably not. And he's not replacing anyone on the PP. His PK is certainly appreciated, but if he doesn't continue to gel with the first or second line, he's could turn into a liability quickly.

Or he could continue to grow as a player for a couple of seasons and put up 50+ points regularly while keeping his edge. Who knows? Power forwards are impossible to predict.

Yeah it's definitely a gamble. I think I would try to get a 5 or 6 year deal between 4.5M - 5M. Fair all around.

 

[RandyHolt]

PP2 has been a black hole forever. I wouldn’t mind seeing them stop trying to create a mimic of PP1 and instead out together a formation that works for the guys who actually play it. That could open a spot for Willy in front of the net.

Great post. PP2 is more like PP WHO? It will be nice to have a 2 in case a team figures out how to shut PP1 down.

Unless we can figure out a 2nd formation, I want to see guys like Willy, Bura, Vrana get a little PP1 throughout the year. Say 1 PP1 a month. 90 seconds a month. Toss em a bone every now and then.

It should help the young guys stay positive, avoid slumps etc. It pumps up their value should we find the sudden need to trade anyone.

 

[Hivemind]

PP2 was great until this last season. It also spent decent chunks of the season in alternative formations, but it always looked bad when doing so.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Ovie usually spends the entire 2min out on PP. I wouldn't mind if we put out Nisky and Orlov to play PP2 and shift into 5on5 D after pp is over. I guess the forwards would be Vrana/bura Eller Wilson

 

[Empty Goal Net]

With the coaching changes, I assume Forsythe is still their pp coach. We'll see if he changes anything this coming season.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[RandyHolt]

I had a vision George tenders an offer to Willy.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I hope that's the case. Wilson gets to play with Ovie and Kuz in DC and they just won the cup. It's pretty impossible to imagine him working his way into a better situation.

 

[Corby78]

I think its a good offseason when my biggest concern on 6 July is re-signing Tom Wilson....

 

[VaCaps Fan]

I had a vision George tenders an offer to Willy.

RandyHolt is GMGM d-bag moves whisperer!

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Have we talked about the Boone Jenner comp? Let's talk about the Boone Jenner comp.

Similar types of players. 13-19-32 (11-18-29 ES) for Jenner last season (Wilson 14-21-35), not playing on a line with Ovechkin/Kuznetsov, but with 1:19 PPTOI/G.

Jenner has three 15G+ seasons in the league, including a 30-19-49 season. Signed yesterday for 4 years @ $3.75M AAV, half of which would have been UFA years.

GMBM is so signing Tom to the Eller deal.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

The Eller deal seems fair for Wilson

 

[895]

Have we talked about the Boone Jenner comp? Let's talk about the Boone Jenner comp.

Similar types of players. 13-19-32 (11-18-29 ES) for Jenner last season (Wilson 14-21-35), not playing on a line with Ovechkin/Kuznetsov, but with 1:19 PPTOI/G.

Jenner has three 15G+ seasons in the league, including a 30-19-49 season. Signed yesterday for 4 years @ $3.75M AAV, half of which would have been UFA years.

GMBM is so signing Tom to the Eller deal.

I would love that but I think it's going to come in higher, unfortunately.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

PP2 has been a black hole forever. I wouldn’t mind seeing them stop trying to create a mimic of PP1 and instead out together a formation that works for the guys who actually play it. That could open a spot for Willy in front of the net.

Does any team run 2 different PP schemes for unit 1 and 2?

Never heard anyone ever suggest it honestly.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

I would love that but I think it's going to come in higher, unfortunately.

Eller is 29, five years older than Willie, so while it'd be nice if Willie comes in at $3.5 aav for 5 yrs, I think we're looking at shorter term and slightly higher amount. Agree that the Jenner is close, but expect 43 to be closer to 4 if two years, and above 4 if >2 yrs.

 

[strungout]

I mentioned it a few pages back (Jenner).

I think Willy falls in between him and the JT Miller contract.

 

[Jags]

These two things are mutually exclusive.

How? Based on his actual individual merit, Tom Wilson is a 3W. He adds very little to our top line in the offensive zone. Ovechkin and Kuznetsov's production decreases when he's on the ice. He makes up for that by being Tom Wilson -- doing the dirty work in deep and along the boards, forecheck/backcheck, best on the line in our own zone, etc.

He's great at those things, which is why every team would kill to have a Tom Wilson -- and the majority of them would play him on their third line. He's on our top line because...

1) It lets us spread our top-6 talent around to create 2 solid scoring lines.

2) It's a clever way to deploy him more often versus our opponents' best players, maximizing the Tom Wilson Effect, so to speak.
​

And my point is that, while both of those things are important, neither are carved in stone. Vrana, Burakovsky, Connolly, and maybe even Stephenson could all play that spot and provide more offensive punch and synergy with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov. And while maximizing the Tom Wilson Effect is certainly fun to watch, it's not always necessary and rarely game-breaking.

So again, I don't think he's got a stranglehold on the 1RW spot, and him being in that spot is 100% responsible for the uptick in his production this year. If he loses that spot, yes, he'll turn back into a 3rd-liner, and he'll be great at it.

It's his spot to lose and I like the fit as much as you guys do, but I'd rather not pay him 25% more based on points he drafted off two superstar linemates.

 

[Silky mitts]

I'd be scared to put Willie on PP2 because he could turn it into a 4 on 4. He and Eller were a very effective PK forward pairing last year though.

 

[Jags]

PP2 has been a black hole forever. I wouldn’t mind seeing them stop trying to create a mimic of PP1 and instead out together a formation that works for the guys who actually play it. That could open a spot for Willy in front of the net.

Net-front play is different on the man advantage than it is at even strength. If PP2 were designed around heavy shots from the point, Wilson would be as good an option as anyone because he's a big body on the screen and his deflection game is solid.

But the inside game requires a high offensive IQ (when/how to make shifty positional adjustments, when to let passes through, seeing two steps ahead to *help* passes get through) and a quick, accurate release. In this capacity Wilson would be low on the list of options because he doesn't excel in those areas and we have a few guys that do.

 

[g00n]

Caps finally get the perfect RW for the top line and win the Cup with the most dangerous combo of speed, skill, and toughness in the league, and we still have people diminishing Tom Wilson's role and skills. Amazing.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Caps finally get the perfect RW for the top line and win the Cup with the most dangerous combo of speed, skill, and toughness in the league, and we still have people diminishing Tom Wilson's role and skills. Amazing.

I don’t think it’s that but would you pay him 6+

 

[g00n]

I don’t think it’s that but would you pay him 6+

Where is 6+ coming from in any serious conversation about this contract?

 

[txpd]

A long term deal for Willy at, say, 5m per, has the potential to be the best or worst contract on the team in a couple of years. Power forwards are SO hard to project. Especially for a guy like Wilson, whose breakout happened playing with Ovie and Kuzy. Would he be the same player at 3RW? Probably not. And he's not replacing anyone on the PP. His PK is certainly appreciated, but if he doesn't continue to gel with the first or second line, he's could turn into a liability quickly..

Lets remember that this past season Wilson was used as the player that was able to get the struggling line going. He did that for each of the top 3 lines. He was productive and a catalyst away from Ov and Kuzy all season. In my view he was also a primary contributor to Kuznetsov's stepping his game up.

I would not be surprised to find Wilson getting pp2 ice time this season whenever Connolly goes cold. I would imagine the plan going forward is to give him that slot when Connolly's deal expires.

And, yea. I think he is the same player with Burakovsky and Eller.

 

[txpd]

PP2 has been a black hole forever. I wouldn’t mind seeing them stop trying to create a mimic of PP1 and instead out together a formation that works for the guys who actually play it. That could open a spot for Willy in front of the net.

PP2 is a black hole because it doesn't get to play but 20 seconds on a pp. It doesn't help that Orlov has the be the d at the top of the formation. It just doesn't work right with a left shot.

Either way, with this pp1 pp2 will never get to play

 

[Jags]

Caps finally get the perfect RW for the top line and win the Cup with the most dangerous combo of speed, skill, and toughness in the league, and we still have people diminishing Tom Wilson's role and skills. Amazing.

I don't think being realistic about his role and skills diminishes them in any way. It just removes some of the inflation caused by homer goggles.

He simply isn't a bona fide top-line player; he's a utility forward that adds something to our top line. His role on that line is way more about what Kuznetsov and Ovechkin lack than anything else. If the 8/92 combo wasn't such a potential defensive liability, Wilson wouldn't be there.

That in no way diminishes the singular impact of Tom Wilson. Much the opposite, in fact. That he can keep up with those guys and bring something unique despite his shortcomings is a testament to his versatility and compete level.

Contract talks are the only time these particulars even really matter or need to be quantified, and it's tricky math. A lot of what he does can't be accounted for in a box score, and fancy stats aren't all that kind to him, either. Identifying the unique things he does and placing a value on them is difficult and subjective.

I think he's a $3m guy that you pay extra for his versatility and potential upside. So I'd give him 4m for as long as possible. To be fair to both sides, something similar to Carlson's last deal, say 4x4, then see where he is at 28.