Player Discussion Tom Wilson - Part 1

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't think being realistic about his role and skills diminishes them in any way. It just removes some of the inflation caused by homer goggles.

He simply isn't a bona fide top-line player; he's a utility forward that adds something to our top line. His role on that line is way more about what Kuznetsov and Ovechkin lack than anything else. If the 8/92 combo wasn't such a potential defensive liability, Wilson wouldn't be there.

That in no way diminishes the singular impact of Tom Wilson. Much the opposite, in fact. That he can keep up with those guys and bring something unique despite his shortcomings is a testament to his versatility and compete level.

Contract talks are the only time these particulars even really matter or need to be quantified, and it's tricky math. A lot of what he does can't be accounted for in a box score, and fancy stats aren't all that kind to him, either. Identifying the unique things he does and placing a value on them is difficult and subjective.

I think he's a $3m guy that you pay extra for his versatility and potential upside. So I'd give him 4m for as long as possible. To be fair to both sides, something similar to Carlson's last deal, say 4x4, then see where he is at 28.

Your definition of “top line player” seems to be the issue. Wilson proved himself to be a valuable top line player. I bet MANY teams in the league would love to have him patrolling their top line wing.

Is he an all star level offensive forward? No, but that’s not the only requirement to be a bonafide top line NHL’er. And yeah...still strong upside IMO.

I’m not interested in paying Wilson more than $4.5 with a little term, but he’s hardly a $3 mil a year player now. The guy is a game changer. You can’t just plug in any old body next to 8-92 and get a game changer.

I’m also not buying that the ONLY reason he’s there is because the others can’t play D. BS.

Somehow you’ve missed the various areas of impact Wilson has in a game even after a Cup run. Ponderous.

 

[g00n]

Jags I am not reading every wall of text you write, especially when your first sentence frames your opinion as reality and opposing viewpoints as homer goggles.

 

[Calicaps]

Does any team run 2 different PP schemes for unit 1 and 2?

Never heard anyone ever suggest it honestly.

Dunno honestly. I just don't think we have the personnel to run 2 units the same way. Might as well do what works for the guys we got.

 

[Calicaps]

Good grief. I give up on this thread. Will you all pinky-swear to be nice to each other so I never have to come in here again?

 

[Devil Dancer]

PP2 is a black hole because it doesn't get to play but 20 seconds on a pp. It doesn't help that Orlov has the be the d at the top of the formation. It just doesn't work right with a left shot.

Either way, with this pp1 pp2 will never get to play

Disagree. PP2 was much more dangerous in its limited ice time before Kuzy got promoted to PP1. It's the personnel that makes the difference. Eller looks pretty good out there, but you just don't have the same top to bottom puck moving and handling skill as PP1 or even PP2 when Kuzy was running the show.

 

[artilector]

Re: Wilson, it's just a semantic issue, IMO. Wilson is a top liner in the sense that he can be an effective contributor on a top line, as he has shown during the Cup run. And he's not a top liner in the sense that if he's the best player on a line, that ain't gonna be the top line. Just call him "complementary top liner" -- you can't separate the "complementary" and the "top".

We've had versions of this debate about Laich, Brouwer, Mojo, etc, about top-6 play. Except Wilson has been an order of magnitude better in this role for the Caps, enabling Ovi & Kuz to play together much more effectively, all while spectacularly acquainting the other teams' best/shutdown players with the laws of classical mechanics.

It all comes down to... the walkaway price. As usual, that's the best way to separate out the homers from the haters. Let's say it's a 5-year deal. So the haters would walkaway at 4-4.5 per, homers -- at 5.5+ per, sounds about right?

IMO, it would suck to have to pay more than ~4.5 for Wilson. But frankly, the Caps just don't have credible alternatives in terms of putting together an ace offensive line (while solid defensively). Smth like Ovi-Kuz-Vrana is a project, and then you lose a lot bite in the middle-6... So in this sense, yeah, losing Wilson would be pretty catastrophic, esp. short-term till the end of Ovi's career, so that might be worth 5+, even if you lose depth elsewhere. That's Wilson's leverage.

Anyway, I'd consider anything better or equal to 4.5M x 4 years to be a win for the Caps in this situation. If his side wants 5+, maybe you have sign a one-year deal and then re-evaluate all options next year...

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

No Skill Willy will live on forever.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I don't think being realistic about his role and skills diminishes them in any way. It just removes some of the inflation caused by homer goggles.

He simply isn't a bona fide top-line player; he's a utility forward that adds something to our top line. His role on that line is way more about what Kuznetsov and Ovechkin lack than anything else. If the 8/92 combo wasn't such a potential defensive liability, Wilson wouldn't be there.

That in no way diminishes the singular impact of Tom Wilson. Much the opposite, in fact. That he can keep up with those guys and bring something unique despite his shortcomings is a testament to his versatility and compete level.

Contract talks are the only time these particulars even really matter or need to be quantified, and it's tricky math. A lot of what he does can't be accounted for in a box score, and fancy stats aren't all that kind to him, either. Identifying the unique things he does and placing a value on them is difficult and subjective.

I think he's a $3m guy that you pay extra for his versatility and potential upside. So I'd give him 4m for as long as possible. To be fair to both sides, something similar to Carlson's last deal, say 4x4, then see where he is at 28.

Peter Hassett, is that you?

 

[Holtbyisms]

Pay the man before some team tries to offersheet him and we have to match a stupid contract... We've got a little bit of wiggle room and I'm not against an extra mil a year if he signs something long term. Caps gonna keep going up, a mil isn't going to make or break us.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Well said Arti, but I'll say this, Laich, Brouwer, Mojo never really proved themselves effective as 1w's that worked with Ovy + whoever.....effective 2nd liners at times yes. Wilson not only fitting in, but making the top line better is a key differentiator IMO.

 

[Jags]

Wilson proved himself to be a valuable top line player.

still strong upside IMO.

The guy is a game changer.

I’m also not buying that the ONLY reason he’s there is because the others can’t play D.

Somehow you’ve missed the various areas of impact Wilson has in a game even after a Cup run. Ponderous.

Right, but these are all vague statements. You're referencing these "areas of impact" but not articulating what those things actually are. That's my point; that it's subjective and difficult to quantify and place value on.

"He's a game-changer," doesn't do it because he doesn't change the game. The team wins without him. His linemates score more without him. There are very few statistics that actually reflect this impact you describe.

I agree that it's there, and I like him in that spot and think he'll continue to improve, but there ARE other factors and alternatives to consider when you're figuring out what to pay a guy.

The argument seem to be, "We just won a Cup and Tom was on the top line, so pay him." And anyone that sees it another way is met with a resounding eye-roll or made to sound like they're hating on Tom Wilson. Like it's impossible to really like a player AND not want to pay him five million dollars.

 

[Jags]

Jags I am not reading every wall of text you write, especially when your first sentence frames your opinion as reality and opposing viewpoints as homer goggles.

Fair enough. You don't want to hear it from me. So here's an article...

What We Learned: Assessing Tom Wilson's true impact

I'm not a fan of the writer, but he makes some fair points. What do you think?

 

[g00n]

Fair enough. You don't want to hear it from me. So here's an article...

What We Learned: Assessing Tom Wilson's true impact

I'm not a fan of the writer, but he makes some fair points. What do you think?

I think you just cherrypicked a hit piece from a butthurt writer from back in May that flies in the face of what just about every other hockey media personality has said since.

I think you're both ignoring the fact that Wilson's 34 even strength points come close to Ovechkin's 32 even strength goals, even without being on the first line all year.

I think you're falling back on cheap canards to try and dismiss analysis that isn't quantitative, in a discussion that requires different but equally legitimate powers of observation and levels of expertise.

I think I've heard what you're saying and seen it bulldozed by facts and drowned in alcohol flowing from the Stanley Cup, right into Tom Wilson's mouth as it says "f*** you" to all the haters.

So I'm not really worried about what you think.

 

[Jags]

I think I've heard what you're saying and seen it bulldozed by facts and drowned in alcohol flowing from the Stanley Cup, right into Tom Wilson's mouth as it says "**** you" to all the haters.

So I'm not really worried about what you think.

What exactly is the hostility about? I'm just trying to have a conversation here, and I've made it pretty clear that I'm a big fan of Tom Wilson's. But this is what I mean about any opinion that diverges from yours being dismissed and ridiculed with empty arguments like, "He's drinking from the Cup, so suck it, haters!"

All I'm saying is that some of the numbers being suggested here seem high to me, and here's why I feel that way. And you're coming off like I just slapped your sister. What gives?

 

[RandyHolt]

Finding a top line winger has largely been a failure for Ovi's entire career. Joey Crabb. We have learned we cannot just stick any ole guy at wing. Willy gets an extra mil for that alone.

The real beauty of our top line is that it can dismantle opponents with pure skill, or by sheer force. Oh and by the way Kuznetsov was basically unstoppable facing a goalie one on one. He was damn close to winning the Conn Smythe with Willy on his wing, not so close before that.

Wilson's wasn't getting ghost points either. All the secondaries I remember seem like set / stretch plays, Ovi cherry pick to start was it, R3G6? Perfect passing off the boards to spring the Kuzmeister... he was leading our team in ESP/G well into the playoffs. Yes somehow more than the 2 Conn Smythie guys (hint: they missed him) and never looked out of place.

How do you defend that line.... try and goad willy?

5 x 4.25

RH Comp with term 3.5 + Extra Mil less .25 keep the band discount.

 

[hockeykicker]

Finding a top line winger has largely been a failure for Ovi's entire career. Joey Crabb. We have learned we cannot just stick any ole guy at wing. Willy gets an extra mil for that alone.

The real beauty of our top line is that it can dismantle opponents with pure skill, or by sheer force. Oh and by the way Kuznetsov was basically unstoppable facing a goalie one on one. He was damn close to winning the Conn Smythe with Willy on his wing, not so close before that.

Wilson's wasn't getting ghost points either. All the secondaries I remember seem like stretch plays, Ovi cherry pick to start was it, R3G6? Perfect passing off the boards to spring the Kuzmeister... he was leading our team in ESP/G well into the playoffs. Yes somehow more than the 2 Conn Smythie guys (hint: they missed him) and never looked out of place.

How do you defend that line.... try and goad willy?

5 x 4.25

RH Comp with term 3.5 + Extra Mil less .25 keep the band discount.

thing is, they have tried him there before, didnt work then. it works now obviously, who knows if it works next year. then he could be back to a 5 mil 3rd liner

 

[RandyHolt]

thing is, they have tried him there before, didnt work then. it works now obviously, who knows if it works next year. then he could be back to a 5 mil 3rd liner

5 seems a bit high. If it doesn't work it wont be his fault. He works hard plays great D hits like a brick house generates fear and turnovers and gets us PPs, no matter where he plays. I think Willy has developed quickly and adding to his game more than most of our prospects. It's the late bloomer power forward we all hoped for, happening right before our eyes.

Don't forget he broke his ankle over the summer and think that set him back as much as Oates did.

The league trying to neuter him may drive to make him an even better ES player.

What I want him to do this summer? Get drunk and practice slot one timers/one time return passes.

 

[hockeykicker]

5 seems a bit high. If it doesn't work it wont be his fault. He works hard plays great D hits like a brick house generates fear and turnovers and gets us PPs, no matter where he plays. I think Willy has developed quickly and adding to his game more than most of our prospects. It's the late bloomer power forward we all hoped for, happening right before our eyes.

Don't forget he broke his ankle over the summer and think that set him back as much as Oates did.

The league trying to neuter him may drive to make him an even better ES player.

What I want him to do this summer? Get drunk and practice slot one timers/one time return passes.

well i was going off your he should get an extra mil for that alone lol

 

[artilector]

thing is, they have tried him there before, didnt work then. it works now obviously, who knows if it works next year. then he could be back to a 5 mil 3rd liner

Some regression is always possible... but Wilson is not the same player he was two years ago (or whatever). If anything, I think it's more likely that he's going to continue to improve after finally getting consistent minutes with a guy like Kuz. I mean, for the first time in what, 5 years? Pretty crazy, if you think about it.

Anyway, as far as negotiations, even the very potential of this Ovi-Kuz-Wilson line, combined with lack of alternatives, means that the Caps can't really afford to lose him. If he demands 5+, fair or not, that puts the Caps in a tough spot. All the outcomes become unpleasant then, regardless of how much one thinks he *should* cost.

 

[WanderingCapsFan]

I love Tom. Would love to see the Caps lock him up long term.

In the back of my mind I wonder if he has some desire to play for (his home town) Maple Leafs? Get to UFA and go home? Granted, they have their own cap issues.

I hope not, but I wonder.....

 

[hockeykicker]

I love Tom. Would love to see the Caps lock him up long term.

In the back of my mind I wonder if he has some desire to play for (his home town) Maple Leafs? Get to UFA and go home? Granted, they have their own cap issues.

I hope not, but I wonder.....

by the time he is able to, the leafs will have had to sign nylander, matthews, marner and kadri to deals at least

 

[EHCler]

I think a 4 year deal around 4 Mio. $ at most 4.5 Mio $ would be what the Caps should be looking for. That would make him signed for the next 4 years when we should still be in the SC window.

 

[Portable Mink]

No one knows what to do when Willy is doing his thing. He DESTROYS people. f***s em up real good. And he has fantastic hockey IQ as well as being really coachable and always improving.

He is the NA RMNB.

I’d pay up to 5 if it’s long term. Would prefer 4 obviously.

 

[maacoshark]

Fair enough. You don't want to hear it from me. So here's an article...

What We Learned: Assessing Tom Wilson's true impact

I'm not a fan of the writer, but he makes some fair points. What do you think?

Actually I completely disagree with his assessment if Wilson. Most of his argument is about offensive numbers. Anyone that judges a players ability to help a team solely on offensive stats knows absolutely nothing about the game. There is so much more to the game than offense. You have to look at everything. Even the small things.
Wilson brings something to the game that not many players do today. He plays a very physical and high energy game. He is an excellent forechecker which creates a lot of scoring chances. Quite often forcing a player to move the puck more quickly than he wants will force turnovers. Wilson does this a lot but more times than not it doesn't show up on the stats sheet. He is also by far the most defensively responsible player on his line, which I dont think he gets enough credit for. He has also turned into a very good penalty killer. He is learning to do the little things right too. Like dumping the puck in deep and get in on the forecheck. Once he gets the puck in the offensive zone he is good along the boards and is decent cycling the puck. His offensive skills are improving now that he us playing with more skilled players. His passing abilities surprised me this season. So did his skating.
It is almost impossible to judge Wilson because there is no one else to compare him too. Most of the other goons are just that. Goons. The majority of tough guys are 4th liners with absolutely no skill and no skating ability. And they dont kill penalties either.
Wilson is one of a kind. The closest player to compare him to might be Wayne Simmons. Simmons is a better goal scorer but I think Wilson is better at everything else.