NFL: Tom Brady Watch

[Troy McClure]

Don't talk about Sanchez like that , lol kidding ,

The sad thing is Sanchez would be very high on the list of QBs the Patriots have faced in their division.

 

[DangleCity]

But what you’re skipping is that, over the past 20 years, no other team has enjoyed having zero quality QBs to compete against in their division.

Your assumption only holds true if the Patriots had inferior records against other divisons. There is a large sample size that shows zero drop off between conferences and divisons.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I know it’s been a couple seasons but is Brady looking for a team that will allow his personal trainer in the facility? Or is he over that? No ones talking about it but it seems like it could play a role.

 

[DangleCity]

I know it’s been a couple seasons but is Brady looking for a team that will allow his personal trainer in the facility? Or is he over that? No ones talking about it but it seems like it could play a role.

Its unclear if they ever came to some sort of agreement between Guerrero and the Patriots. Brady has a TB12 facility at Gillette so it probably became a non issue because Brady could cross the street to get treatment and just fly Guerrero around on his own dime

 

[TheAngryHank]

The sad thing is Sanchez would be very high on the list of QBs the Patriots have faced in their division.

Butt fumble is the best one i could think of.

 

[pockets]

Its unclear if they ever came to some sort of agreement between Guerrero and the Patriots. Brady has a TB12 facility at Gillette so it probably became a non issue because Brady could cross the street to get treatment and just fly Guerrero around on his own dime

He's allowed at Gillette, and allowed to treat Brady from his office at Gillette whenever Brady wants it, however he's not allowed on the sideline during games.

 

[TheClap]

Brady stays. New England drafts their QB of the future this off-season and learns the ropes under Brady for at least a season.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Brady stays. New England drafts their QB of the future this off-season and learns the ropes under Brady for at least a season.

Jalen Hurts?

 

[DangleCity]

Brady stays. New England drafts their QB of the future this off-season and learns the ropes under Brady for at least a season.

I think they might draft another QB too, but I know they like Stidham and want him to sit for atleast another season, hence the reports of getting a stop gap QB for a season if Brady were to leave

 

[Bocephus86]

The Patriots winning percentage vs the AFC East is 78% since Brady. The Patriots winning percentage against the rest of the league in the same time frame is 75%. The Patriots consistently beat who they have to, and they'd have consistently beat up on any other division they may have had to play in.

 

[Troy McClure]

The Patriots winning percentage vs the AFC East is 78% since Brady. The Patriots winning percentage against the rest of the league in the same time frame is 75%. The Patriots consistently beat who they have to, and they'd have consistently beat up on any other division they may have had to play in.

While the winning percentages remain true, the Patriots having 37.5% of their schedule every season for 20 years be terrible terrible teams with often among the worst QBs in the league means the Patriots enjoyed a wonderful advantage no other team in the NFL did over that same span.

 

[Bocephus86]

While the winning percentages remain true, the Patriots having 37.5% of their schedule every season for 20 years be terrible terrible teams with often among the worst QBs in the league means the Patriots enjoyed a wonderful advantage no other team in the NFL did over that same span.

That's your assumption. All I know is they win at basically a 75% clip against the entire league so they'd likely still be the Patriots you know & love regardless of division.

 

[Hasbro]

That's your assumption. All I know is they win at basically a 75% clip against the entire league so they'd likely still be the Patriots you know & love regardless of division.

What’s their record versus winning teams and how often were those in the AFC East?

 

[DangleCity]

While the winning percentages remain true, the Patriots having 37.5% of their schedule every season for 20 years be terrible terrible teams with often among the worst QBs in the league means the Patriots enjoyed a wonderful advantage no other team in the NFL did over that same span.

We know the AFC east has been very bad at times. We have established that point. You dont need to keep repeating yourself. No one is going to argue that the AFC east is a power house divison.

The discussion is how the Patriots would have faired in another division that was better than the AFC east. And the numbers speak for themselves. They beat good teams and bad teams.

 

[DueDiligence]

While the winning percentages remain true, the Patriots having 37.5% of their schedule every season for 20 years be terrible terrible teams with often among the worst QBs in the league means the Patriots enjoyed a wonderful advantage no other team in the NFL did over that same span.

Your logic does not make sense. Basically they win 75% of their games regardless of the opposition. One could argue the division is better than it's record because each team has to play the Patriots twice a year.

 

[Troy McClure]

Your logic does not make sense. Basically they win 75% of their games regardless of the opposition. One could argue the division is better than it's record because each team has to play the Patriots twice a year.

My logic is no other team enjoyed as easy of a division as the Patriots over the past 20 years. They went into every season guaranteed 5 or 6 wins and practically guaranteed winning the division. They entered every season pretty much assured their first playoff game would be a home game and might even come after a bye week.

No other team enjoyed that kind of advantage. It's probably a historically unique easy path to the playoffs for an NFL team.

 

[DueDiligence]

My logic is no other team enjoyed as easy of a division as the Patriots over the past 20 years. They went into every season guaranteed 5 or 6 wins and practically guaranteed winning the division. They entered every season pretty much assured their first playoff game would be a home game and might even come after a bye week.

No other team enjoyed that kind of advantage. It's probably a historically unique easy path to the playoffs for an NFL team.

You are wrong. Try looking at some facts! ( This article is a year old but look at the results)

Average Wins By Division (Without Div. Winners)

Inspired by the post earlier regarding median division wins, I was curious how good the bottom 3 teams in each division have been in the past 10 years.
Fans of other teams and media analysts alike bemoan the AFC East as "6 easy wins for the Patriots" and I've never believed that was true. So I went back and averaged the win totals of the bottom 3 teams in each division by year since 2008. The results made me laugh:

AFCE	AFCN	AFCS	AFCW	NFCE	NFCN	NFCS	NFCW
2008	9	6.33	8.33	5	8.67	5	9.33	4.33
2009	7.33	7.67	8	5.67	7.67	6.67	6.67	4.67
2010	7.33	7	6.67	7	7.33	7.33	7.67	6
2011	6.67	8.33	5.33	7.67	7	7	6.67	5.67
2012	6.33	7.67	6.33	4.33	7	8	7	7.67
2013	7.33	6.67	4.33	8	6	6.67	6.33	9.67
2014	7	9	4.67	7	6.67	7.67	5	8.33
2015	8	6	5.33	7.33	5.67	7.67	7	7.33
2016	7.33	5	6.67	8.67	8.67	6.67	7.33	4.33
2017	6.67	5.33	5.67	6.67	6.33	7	8.67	7.67
Total Avg. Wins	7.3	6.9	6.13	6.73	7.1	6.97	7.17	6.57

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In terms of the quality of teams to beat in order to win the division, the AFC East has been the BEST division in the last 10 years.

 

[Bocephus86]

What’s their record versus winning teams and how often were those in the AFC East?

Brady is 30-11 in the playoffs (73.2%). I would assume their record in the playoffs would be against winning teams.

 

[pockets]

You are wrong. Try looking at some facts! ( This article is a year old but look at the results)

Average Wins By Division (Without Div. Winners)

Inspired by the post earlier regarding median division wins, I was curious how good the bottom 3 teams in each division have been in the past 10 years.
Fans of other teams and media analysts alike bemoan the AFC East as "6 easy wins for the Patriots" and I've never believed that was true. So I went back and averaged the win totals of the bottom 3 teams in each division by year since 2008. The results made me laugh:

AFCE	AFCN	AFCS	AFCW	NFCE	NFCN	NFCS	NFCW
2008	9	6.33	8.33	5	8.67	5	9.33	4.33
2009	7.33	7.67	8	5.67	7.67	6.67	6.67	4.67
2010	7.33	7	6.67	7	7.33	7.33	7.67	6
2011	6.67	8.33	5.33	7.67	7	7	6.67	5.67
2012	6.33	7.67	6.33	4.33	7	8	7	7.67
2013	7.33	6.67	4.33	8	6	6.67	6.33	9.67
2014	7	9	4.67	7	6.67	7.67	5	8.33
2015	8	6	5.33	7.33	5.67	7.67	7	7.33
2016	7.33	5	6.67	8.67	8.67	6.67	7.33	4.33
2017	6.67	5.33	5.67	6.67	6.33	7	8.67	7.67
Total Avg. Wins	7.3	6.9	6.13	6.73	7.1	6.97	7.17	6.57

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In terms of the quality of teams to beat in order to win the division, the AFC East has been the BEST division in the last 10 years.

Brady is 30-11 in the playoffs (73.2%). I would assume their record in the playoffs would be against winning teams.

Don’t you guys know that stats and facts don’t matter when it comes to the Pats...

 

[Troy McClure]

You are wrong. Try looking at some facts! ( This article is a year old but look at the results)

Average Wins By Division (Without Div. Winners)

Inspired by the post earlier regarding median division wins, I was curious how good the bottom 3 teams in each division have been in the past 10 years.
Fans of other teams and media analysts alike bemoan the AFC East as "6 easy wins for the Patriots" and I've never believed that was true. So I went back and averaged the win totals of the bottom 3 teams in each division by year since 2008. The results made me laugh:

AFCE	AFCN	AFCS	AFCW	NFCE	NFCN	NFCS	NFCW
2008	9	6.33	8.33	5	8.67	5	9.33	4.33
2009	7.33	7.67	8	5.67	7.67	6.67	6.67	4.67
2010	7.33	7	6.67	7	7.33	7.33	7.67	6
2011	6.67	8.33	5.33	7.67	7	7	6.67	5.67
2012	6.33	7.67	6.33	4.33	7	8	7	7.67
2013	7.33	6.67	4.33	8	6	6.67	6.33	9.67
2014	7	9	4.67	7	6.67	7.67	5	8.33
2015	8	6	5.33	7.33	5.67	7.67	7	7.33
2016	7.33	5	6.67	8.67	8.67	6.67	7.33	4.33
2017	6.67	5.33	5.67	6.67	6.33	7	8.67	7.67
Total Avg. Wins	7.3	6.9	6.13	6.73	7.1	6.97	7.17	6.57

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In terms of the quality of teams to beat in order to win the division, the AFC East has been the BEST division in the last 10 years.

Again, you're missing and misunderstanding the point.

Go back and look at the teams in those divisions over time. Sure, there are a few who are always terrible like Cleveland or Oakland or Jacksonville, but for the most part, you see different teams rise in these divisions, mostly because they finally find competent QB play for a while.

Since 2002, here's the number of times each team won their division and a partial list of the good QBs to play in those divisions.

AFCE: NE 16, NYJ 1, MIA 1, BUF 0 - Brady
AFCN: PIT 8, BAL 6, CIN 4, CLE 0 - Big Ben, Flacco, Palmer, Dalton, Jackson
AFCS: IND 9, HOU 6, TEN 2, JAX 1 - McNair, Manning, Luck, Watson
AFCW: KC 6, DEN 6, SD, 5, OAK 1 - Rivers, Manning, Mahommes
NFCE: PHI 8, DAL 5, NYG 3, WAH 2 - McNabb, Romo, Prescott, Wentz
NFCN: GB 10, CHI 4, MIN 4, DET 0 - Favre (two teams), Rodgers, Stafford
NFCS: NO 6, CAR 5, TB 3, ATL 3 - Brees, Ryan, Newton
NFCW: SEA 8, SF 4, RAMS 3, ARI 3 - Warner, Hasselbeck, Wilson, Smith, Goff, Garappolo

I'm leaving off many QBs who were very good for multiple seasons because I'm not spending hours on this, so feel free to add to the list.

But one thing you won't find are any good QBs in the AFC East. The Patriots never saw other teams in their division rise up and be serious competitors because the Patriots enjoyed 20 years of their division opponents getting garbage QB play. That's what makes their path to the division win an advantage no other team in the NFL has enjoyed.

 

[Babe Ruth]

..the Patriots having 37.5% of their schedule every season for 20 years be terrible terrible teams with often among the worst QBs in the league means the Patriots enjoyed a wonderful advantage no other team in the NFL did over that same span.

I guess it's somewhat a chicken-or-egg situation tho. Outside of the Pats, AFC East teams have had a lot of collective losses. But a lot of those collective losses were at the hands of New England. Patriots' supremacy (maybe) makes it's division competitors look worse than they were.
Don't know if you're old enough to remember '80s Niners, but they had a similar set up.. In the old NFC West they got 4 seemingly easy division games every season playing Falcons & Saints.. But part of the reason ATL & New Orleans (win %) always looked bad, was their head to head losses vs. San Francisco. Division advantages are what they are, but both NE & San Francisco still had to/and did beat opposing conference champs..

 

[pockets]

Again, you're missing and misunderstanding the point.

Go back and look at the teams in those divisions over time. Sure, there are a few who are always terrible like Cleveland or Oakland or Jacksonville, but for the most part, you see different teams rise in these divisions, mostly because they finally find competent QB play for a while.

Since 2002, here's the number of times each team won their division and a partial list of the good QBs to play in those divisions.

AFCE: NE 16, NYJ 1, MIA 1, BUF 0 - Brady
AFCN: PIT 8, BAL 6, CIN 4, CLE 0 - Big Ben, Flacco, Palmer, Dalton, Jackson
AFCS: IND 9, HOU 6, TEN 2, JAX 1 - McNair, Manning, Luck, Watson
AFCW: KC 6, DEN 6, SD, 5, OAK 1 - Rivers, Manning, Mahommes
NFCE: PHI 8, DAL 5, NYG 3, WAH 2 - McNabb, Romo, Prescott, Wentz
NFCN: GB 10, CHI 4, MIN 4, DET 0 - Favre (two teams), Rodgers, Stafford
NFCS: NO 6, CAR 5, TB 3, ATL 3 - Brees, Ryan, Newton
NFCW: SEA 8, SF 4, RAMS 3, ARI 3 - Warner, Hasselbeck, Wilson, Smith, Goff, Garappolo

I'm leaving off many QBs who were very good for multiple seasons because I'm not spending hours on this, so feel free to add to the list.

But one thing you won't find are any good QBs in the AFC East. The Patriots never saw other teams in their division rise up and be serious competitors because the Patriots enjoyed 20 years of their division opponents getting garbage QB play. That's what makes their path to the division win an advantage no other team in the NFL has enjoyed.

You are right, no one can argue that the AFCE has had as many upper tier quarterbacks as other divisions. Unfortunately that argument literally stops right there when you factor in everything else. Really, the whole AFCE QB argument is weak at best.

Never mind that football is a team sport and QBs make up 1/22 of the players on the field, it doesn't account for the fact that from 2000-2019 the Pats actually have a better win percentage against 4 other divisions (AFCS - .774, NFCS - .773, NFCE - .750, NFCW - .750) than they do the AFCE (.746).

As for the other 3 divisions, they are only .001 worse vs. the AFCN (.745), .006 worse vs. the NFCN (.739). Their worst division record is vs. the AFCW (.660, 33-17) and 9 of those 17 losses are vs. the Broncos, which leaves a .742 win percentage vs. the remaining 3 AFCW teams.

If division QBs really made that much of an impact on the Pats success then their win percentage vs. the AFCE should be much higher than every other division and that's simply not true.

A couple other things the entire AFCE sucks argument completely misses is that the AFCE teams (minus the Pats and other annual division winners) actually have a) the highest avg annual wins, b) the highest win percentage vs. non-division opponents, and c) since 2000 the AFCE has more seasons with multiple 10+ win teams than any other division.

Here are a couple other facts/stats, not related to the QB thing, but also puts a dent into the whole division nonsense. From 2001-2018 the Pats had:
1) 25 more non-division wins than any other team
2) Only team with a winning record vs. teams that won their division (in the same year)
3) Only team with a winning record vs. teams that made the playoffs (in the same year)
4) Only team with a winning record vs. teams with a winning record (in the same year)

Everyone likes to say the Pats success was the product of a shitty division when in actuality the lack of success from the remaining 3 AFCE teams was a product of the Patriots...

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

They only play their division 6 times per year and usually lost to the Dolphins at least once. But even if you want to go ahead and say "guaranteed 6 wins" they still had to win another 5 out 10 games somewhere at least. I don't think they ever won the division with less than 11 wins. They even won 11 the year without Brady and only missed the playoffs/division on tiebreakers. And they were still good the two years over that span that the Jets were good too.

Also even if you buy into the division sucked stuff, they still won SIX superbowls and went to nine. You're not playing the the bad division in the playoffs.

Yes the other 3 teams suck and yes the Patriots are/were good, both can be true.

 

[DangleCity]

You are right, no one can argue that the AFCE has had as many upper tier quarterbacks as other divisions. Unfortunately that argument literally stops right there when you factor in everything else. Really, the whole AFCE QB argument is weak at best.

Never mind that football is a team sport and QBs make up 1/22 of the players on the field, it doesn't account for the fact that from 2000-2019 the Pats actually have a better win percentage against 4 other divisions (AFCS - .774, NFCS - .773, NFCE - .750, NFCW - .750) than they do the AFCE (.746).

As for the other 3 divisions, they are only .001 worse vs. the AFCN (.745), .006 worse vs. the NFCN (.739). Their worst division record is vs. the AFCW (.660, 33-17) and 9 of those 17 losses are vs. the Broncos, which leaves a .742 win percentage vs. the remaining 3 AFCW teams.

If division QBs really made that much of an impact on the Pats success then their win percentage vs. the AFCE should be much higher than every other division and that's simply not true.

A couple other things the entire AFCE sucks argument completely misses is that the AFCE teams (minus the Pats and other annual division winners) actually have a) the highest avg annual wins, b) the highest win percentage vs. non-division opponents, and c) since 2000 the AFCE has more seasons with multiple 10+ win teams than any other division.

Here are a couple other facts/stats, not related to the QB thing, but also puts a dent into the whole division nonsense. From 2001-2018 the Pats had:
1) 25 more non-division wins than any other team
2) Only team with a winning record vs. teams that won their division (in the same year)
3) Only team with a winning record vs. teams that made the playoffs (in the same year)
4) Only team with a winning record vs. teams with a winning record (in the same year)

Everyone likes to say the Pats success was the product of a ****ty division when in actuality the lack of success from the remaining 3 AFCE teams was a product of the Patriots...

Well put, he is basically trying to argue that bad QB = Bad team and good QB = good team, which is far from the truth. See the Bills this season.

 

[Troy McClure]

Yes the other 3 teams suck and yes the Patriots are/were good, both can be true.

That's all I've been trying to say, yet Pats fans get super duper defensive about this.

It can both be true that the Patriots are handed an annual advantage and also that the Patriots were good enough to take advantage of that advantage to vault themselves deep into the playoffs over and over.