Value of: Tkachuk long-term

[DFF]

Players like landeskog and Tkachuk are physically mature to play in the NHL at a younger age. It doesn't mean that just because they scored 50 at 18 that they are going to score 80 at 23. It's likely tkschuk hovers around Landeskogs production going forward. There nothin wrong with that.

Landeskog just had a 62 point season. He's fine.

The majority of players improve their production over time. Yes, it's not a guaranty but it's more likely. It's ridiculous to say they cant at 20.

 

[Volica]

Players like landeskog and Tkachuk are physically mature to play in the NHL at a younger age. It doesn't mean that just because they scored 50 at 18 that they are going to score 80 at 23. It's likely tkschuk hovers around Landeskogs production going forward. There nothin wrong with that.

Landeskog just had a 62 point season. He's fine.

While being physically mature, there are still gaps in the 19/20 year olds game. Like his skating was bad in year one, and improved in year two; but still has room to grow.

The IQ and skill set is why people think the guy is going to keep improving. He was pacing 60 points while taking his teams’ hardest matchups, getting 2nd PP minutes until past mid season and having linemates with (I believe) the worst year over year PDO drop.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Players like landeskog and Tkachuk are physically mature to play in the NHL at a younger age. It doesn't mean that just because they scored 50 at 18 that they are going to score 80 at 23. It's likely tkschuk hovers around Landeskogs production going forward. There nothin wrong with that.

Landeskog just had a 62 point season. He's fine.

I’d actually argue that Tkachuk’s physical game is the area he can grow the most. He actually lost weight last off-season to improve his skating. His passing game is just ridiculous, as his quickness and shot improves, there’s every reason to think his totals will continue to jump. He’s not done developing.

 

[Canucks1096]

The majority of players improve their production over time. Yes, it's not a guaranty but it's more likely. It's ridiculous to say they cant at 20.

True but that's not the case for a lot of times with high draft picks. A lot of high draft picks you peaked early because you have the skill and the hockey sense or/and your physically mature at a young age already. So because they peaked at such a young age. There is really not many major improvements that they can make that will result in a high point increase.

So I looked at some forwards that was drafted high from 2005 to 2013. These are the players that peaked within the first 3 seasons. Staal Toews Backstrom Crosby Ryan Ovechkin Malkin Stamkos Duchene Skinner RNH Landeskog Lindholm Monahan. It's actually not that ridiculous saying Tkachuk Peaked already since so many high draft pick peaked at such a young age.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Monahan hasn’t peaked yet, his improvements have been subtle but last season when he was healthy he was just on another level and looked scary.

Tkachuk has definitely not peaked yet, his game is mature but he’s only going to keep getting better. I think he will be pretty much a finished product as early as next season.

 

[super6646]

I'm gonna guess 5.5/7years if he signed this summer. Under 6 is fine, but signing him for Gaudreau money is stupid.

 

[Rubi]

I'm gonna guess 5.5/7years if he signed this summer. Under 6 is fine, but signing him for Gaudreau money is stupid.

Looking at it from Tkachuk's point of view, why would he consider signing this summer? Next year he'll have another years experience, his numbers are projected to improve (particularly if he gets to play with either Neal or Lindholm) and next year he'll be a RFA with arbitration rights.
If he waits next year and his season goes as well as expected, he'll get $6+ mil per year in a long term contract.

 

[super6646]

Looking at it from Tkachuk's point of view, why would he consider signing this summer? Next year he'll have another years experience, his numbers are projected to improve (particularly if he gets to play with either Neal or Lindholm) and next year he'll be a RFA with arbitration rights.
If he waits next year and his season goes as well as expected, he'll get $6+ mil per year in a long term contract.

If he puts up close to 60 points, absolutely. But right now, he isn't significantly better than Backlund offensively; and yes while he does add intangibles, he is also an RFA.

 

[Rubi]

If he puts up close to 60 points, absolutely. But right now, he isn't significantly better than Backlund offensively; and yes while he does add intangibles, he is also an RFA.

Yes he is an RFA but he's an RFA with arbitration rights. You have to admit that an RFA with arbitration rights has more leverage than one without.
The Flames do not want to roll the dice in an arbitration hearing and will make a $6+ mil offer to avoid that.


Edit: Disregard what I said above as its complete nonsense. I mistakenly believed that Tkatchuk was a RFA with arbitration rights at the end of his current contract. He isn't so I'm an idiot. Sorry.

 

[Spazkat]

Yes he is an RFA but he's an RFA with arbitration rights. You have to admit that an RFA with arbitration rights has more leverage than one without.
The Flames do not want to roll the dice in an arbitration hearing and will make a $6+ mil offer to avoid that.

what? Players don't get arbitration rights until they've been in the NHL 4 years unless they sign their 1st contract after 20. Tkachuk will not be arbitration eligible until after the 19-20 season.

 

[JPeeper]

If he puts up close to 60 points, absolutely. But right now, he isn't significantly better than Backlund offensively; and yes while he does add intangibles, he is also an RFA.

wot?

Tkachuk is massively better than Backlund offensively. Put Matt with Monahan and he hits 80 points.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

wot?

Tkachuk is massively better than Backlund offensively. Put Matt with Monahan and he hits 80 points.

I doubt he hits 80 with Monahan, but he is definitely better than Backlund, theres a reason Backlund had his best offensive year next to tkachuk.

 

[Rubi]

what? Players don't get arbitration rights until they've been in the NHL 4 years unless they sign their 1st contract after 20. Tkachuk will not be arbitration eligible until after the 19-20 season.

Oops... my mistake. You're right I'm wrong. Before posting I looked it up on Capfriendly and obviously misread the chart.


Fixed my above post. I'm an idiot.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I doubt he hits 80 with Monahan, but he is definitely better than Backlund, theres a reason Backlund had his best offensive year next to tkachuk.

Tkachuk is closer to Gaudreau skill wise than to Monahan. It’s not unreasonable to suggest he would get 80 playing on the topline.

 

[super6646]

wot?

Tkachuk is massively better than Backlund offensively. Put Matt with Monahan and he hits 80 points.

Yeah... no. Both played the same minutes and matchups and had similar point totals, so putting tkachuk with Gaudreau and Monahan wouldn't magically make him a ppg...

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

8 years $6M AAV

 

[Wayne Primeau]

Yeah... no. Both played the same minutes and matchups and had similar point totals, so putting tkachuk with Gaudreau and Monahan wouldn't magically make him a ppg...

Tell me what about this is "similar."

Backlund: 1.73 P/60
Tkachuk: 2.51 P/60

FYI -- here are a couple other numbers.

Monahan: 2.65 P/60
Gaudreau: 3.09 P/60

 

[Tavares to Marner]

5.5M would be a steal

 

[Lemontree]

Tkachuk has quite a bit more offensive upside than Landy, tbh. I don’t really think it’s close.

What is that based on? They are very similar players with similar skillsets.

 

[super6646]

Tell me what about this is "similar."

Backlund: 1.73 P/60
Tkachuk: 2.51 P/60

FYI -- here are a couple other numbers.

Monahan: 2.65 P/60
Gaudreau: 3.09 P/60

Can't argue too much with that, but there is a pretty significant gap between Tkachuk and Gaudreau. The intangibles for me don't make up for that. Still think 5-6 million seems like the price range, but whatever.

 

[StreetHawk]

What is that based on? They are very similar players with similar skillsets.

I also don’t view tkachuk as a consistent 75 point player. Likely will be a consistent guy in the high 50’s to low 60’s. Maybe a career year close to 70.

 

[DJJones]

I also don’t view tkachuk as a consistent 75 point player. Likely will be a consistent guy in the high 50’s to low 60’s. Maybe a career year close to 70.

With Gaudreau on the team he's unlikely to hit 70. Especially when he's good defensively and gets treated as such.

Unless of course, Calgary just went full Bruins and went Gaudreau - Monahan - Tkachuk. Stylistically not sure if that would work though

 

[Rubi]

I also don’t view tkachuk as a consistent 75 point player. Likely will be a consistent guy in the high 50’s to low 60’s. Maybe a career year close to 70.

Too early to make that type of prediction. Sample size is too small especially considering his young age and the fact that he hasn't even reached the 250 game mark in his career.

 

[Wayne Primeau]

Too early to make that type of prediction. Sample size is too small especially considering his young age and the fact that he hasn't even reached the 250 game mark in his career.

He hasn't even reached 150 games.

 

[Volica]

He hasn't even reached 150 games.

Sub 150 games, not legal to drink on US road trips.
This kid's maxed out man. Not sure what else you're going to get from him.