Value of: Tkachuk long-term

[ACC1224]

There's been much discussion on here about what Nylander will sign for. AAV's from $6-8 mil have been thrown out.
I suspect that most NHL GMs would take Tkachuk over Nylander, if both were available and both had reasonable and similar contract term and AAV.

Tkachuk doesn't have the work "quit" in his vocabulary. This is the type of player that you want to go to war with come playoff time. He makes EVERYBODY on the team better. I wonder who Marner would chose as a team mate? Nylander or Tkachuk?

I would easily trade Nylander plus for Tkachuk. He is the exact player the Leafs need to round off the team.
He will be a Flame for a long time though.

 

[Potty John]

He’s easily worth 6 million but hopefully Tre will be able to get him for under 6.

 

[Rubi]

Marner would also chose Matt Martin as a teammate, that doesn't mean it's a good idea.

The choice was between Nylander and Tkachuk, not Martin. Nylander would be out the door so fast his head would spin. Marner wants to win a cup. He knows what Tkachuk brings to the table just like he knows what Nylander brings. Players like Tkachuk will always be more valuable than the Nylanders of the world.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

He seems a lot like Gabriel Landeskog.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Steinberg is speculating IMO. Tkachuk really wouldn’t have much motivation to sign today, would he? His odds are quite a bit better than not that he would sign for more if he waited.

 

[TheDoldrums]

The choice was between Nylander and Tkachuk, not Martin. Nylander would be out the door so fast his head would spin. Marner wants to win a cup. He knows what Tkachuk brings to the table just like he knows what Nylander brings. Players like Tkachuk will always be more valuable than the Nylanders of the world.

Marner has no idea how to build a hockey team. This is a really stupid argument.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Tkachuk is flirting with low end 1st line production. He's averaging 55 points per 82 games. He brings a lot more than scoring to his game. 6 x 6 give or take is sort of the ball park for a good young star with that level of production. It gets a bit more complicated when 7 or 8 year contracts start to be talked about, because then there are significant UFA years being bought up.

6 years 5.75M
7 years 6.25M
8 years 6.75M

Something along those lines give or take a little bit. Monahan's contract would be 7 years with a 6.94M AAV under today's salary cap, Gaudreau's would be about 6 years with a 7.35M AAV. That illustrates that the numbers above put him well below Gaudreau, and slightly below Monahan.

 

[puckpilot]

No a fan of his antics l, but rule of thumb I use is every 10pts is 1million. So Tkachuk is around a 50pt player. The starting point is 5million plus. Then add in the intangibles, which I'm not always a fan of, and you get somewhere between 6-7 million.

At say 6.5 Calgary gets a great deal if his offence improves. Otherwise it's a solid pay day for Tkachuk and a reasonable deal for the team.

 

[Neutral Hockey Fan]

The consensus on here is that Tkachuk>Marner>Larkin>Nylander

Larkin got 6.1

So Nylander should get about 5.8
Marner should get 6.5
Tkachuk should be 7-8

Realistic numbers

 

[Prairie Habs]

8 year deal sounds perfect for Calgary. It will be cheaper than a bridge + extension and will take him until he's 29/30 which is exactly when you will be looking to cut and run from a player of his style.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

Knowing how good of a negotiator that Treliving is, I expect he'll end up signing for Sean Monahan like numbers 7 yrs x $6.375 mil per year.

I would gladly take Tkachuk at that price but nothing he's done indicates that 6.375 would be a steal and would hardly be an example of how good a negotiator Treliving is.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

The consensus on here is that Tkachuk>Marner>Larkin>Nylander

Larkin got 6.1

So Nylander should get about 5.8
Marner should get 6.5
Tkachuk should be 7-8

Realistic numbers

I don't get your thing.

 

[780il]

Marner>Tkachuk>Larkin>=Nylander

Larkin got 6.1

So on 8 year deals:
Nylander should get about 6.5 to 7.25
Marner should get 8 +
Tkachuk should be 7-8

Fixed it for you

(Imo)

 

[780il]

I think he could make a good case for a 7x7 or maybe even a 8x8 as much of an overpay that would be. The grit and a**holeness he brings is something only him, his brother, and the rat bring to the ice. Combine that aspect with the ability to skate and score and he is a player I'd absolutely love to have on my team.

 

[Volica]

Once again a thread demonstrates how little knowledge there is about the Flames in general and Matty Tkachuk.

 

[Rubi]

Marner has no idea how to build a hockey team. This is a really stupid argument.

That's not what I said. Marner knows both players and I guarantee he would prefer Tkachuk as his line mate over Nylander. He's won before with Tkachuk and having him on the team would help a lot in the Leafs quest for the Cup.
Wouldn't at all be surprise if most Leaf fans would trade Nylander for Tkachuk, straight up, in a New York minute, if they were being honest with themselves..

Anyways, this is all moot. Calgary will not be trading Tkachuk and certainly not for Nylander. I fully expect Tkachuk to re-sign with the Flames next summer as opposed to this summer... A new contract won't take affect until next year so he doesn't gain anything by signing a year early. In fact he loses by doing so.

 

[Flyerfan52]

Due to the Flames rule that nobody is paid more than the captain I see him re-signed @ 6.75 x 6. That's the same as Gaudreau but comes in as a bit smaller % of cap. That makes up for Tkachuk being #2LW vs #1.

 

[StreetHawk]

He seems a lot like Gabriel Landeskog.

Close comparison. I think Landy has higher offensive skills. So I don’t think Matt will match his offensive output on a year by year basis at the same age.

Matt is more of an on your face player. Landy throws his fair share of checks but Matt has that nasty side to him.

Who would I pick would depend on whether I have high end offensive talent on the roster ahead of these guys. The more I have then I go tkachuk. If I don’t have more than 1 guy who can score 70 points then I want Landys offense more.

 

[FerklundCGY]

Honestly, if Tkachuk comes in at 8x6.75 (Flames internal cap), I would be beyond ecstatic. Anything less and it's an immediate steal of a deal.

 

[StreetHawk]

Due to the Flames rule that nobody is paid more than the captain I see him re-signed @ 6.75 x 6. That's the same as Gaudreau but comes in as a bit smaller % of cap. That makes up for Tkachuk being #2LW vs #1.

Those rules don't make sense given the rising salary cap and the amount of time that has passed his he signed.

I would expect agents to consider what the cap was when comparable players signed their deals. A bunch of the 2016 RFA signings scored in the $6 million range. Factor in the increase in the cap, I would expect similar players today to get a bump of around 9% to account for the cap going from $73 million to $79.5 million. So, you're looking at $6.5 million for the same player today.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Close comparison. I think Landy has higher offensive skills. So I don’t think Matt will match his offensive output on a year by year basis at the same age.

Matt is more of an on your face player. Landy throws his fair share of checks but Matt has that nasty side to him.

Who would I pick would depend on whether I have high end offensive talent on the roster ahead of these guys. The more I have then I go tkachuk. If I don’t have more than 1 guy who can score 70 points then I want Landys offense more.

Tkachuk has quite a bit more offensive upside than Landy, tbh. I don’t really think it’s close.

 

[DFF]

Tkachuk has quite a bit more offensive upside than Landy, tbh. I don’t really think it’s close.

Tkachuk offense is underrated

He is already on the similar pace as Landeskog and he is 5 yrs younger....unless he starts going backward like Landeskog did

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Tkachuk offense is underrated

He is already on the similar pace as Landeskog and he is 5 yrs younger....unless he starts going backward like Landeskog did

Exactly. And there’s really no reason to think Tkachuk will stop trending upward, he has room for so much more growth in his game. He should be a perennial 65-80 forward each year.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Tkachuk is good

 

[Icebreakers]

Tkachuk offense is underrated

He is already on the similar pace as Landeskog and he is 5 yrs younger....unless he starts going backward like Landeskog did

Players like landeskog and Tkachuk are physically mature to play in the NHL at a younger age. It doesn't mean that just because they scored 50 at 18 that they are going to score 80 at 23. It's likely tkschuk hovers around Landeskogs production going forward. There nothin wrong with that.

Landeskog just had a 62 point season. He's fine.