Value of: Tkachuk long-term

[Wayne Primeau]

Pat Steinberg is reporting today that Matthew Tkachuk is "eager" to sign long-term in Calgary. What contract should he be able to command?

For reference, here are his career stats (two seasons):

144 GP
37 G
60 A
97 P
+6.9% CF rel

Click to read more...

 

[Rubi]

Knowing how good of a negotiator that Treliving is, I expect he'll end up signing for Sean Monahan like numbers 7 yrs x $6.375 mil per year.

 

[DJJones]

If you go 8 years with anyone it's Tkachuk. He's going to be this teams heart and soul for the next decade.

 

[Spazkat]

Knowing how good of a negotiator that Treliving is, I expect he'll end up signing for Sean Monahan like numbers 7 yrs x $6.375 mil per year.

Seems like a serious overpay for a sub 50 point winger - especially given the number of RFA years involved.

 

[JurassicTunga]

8yrs, 6-6.5m.
Such a fun player to watch. Potent in all areas of the ice.

 

[Wayne Primeau]

Seems like a serious overpay for a sub 50 point winger - especially given the number of RFA years involved.

97 points in 144 games = 55 in an 82-game season

 

[bossram]

Seems like a serious overpay for a sub 50 point winger - especially given the number of RFA years involved.

Not really. This is the landscape of the NHL.

<21 top-six RFA forwards typically go long term on a cap hit of 6+ million.

Tkachuk's value is more than offense as well. Going for the max years at around ~6.5 million would be a sensible move from Calgary.

 

[Rubi]

Seems like a serious overpay for a sub 50 point winger - especially given the number of RFA years involved.

Then you don't know very much about Tkachuk

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Between 6 and 7 mil.

 

[Spazkat]

97 points in 144 games = 55 in an 82-game season

If you want to portray it that way to make him look better sure. The fact is, hes played 2 seasons and not accumulated more than 50 points either year.

Not really. This is the landscape of the NHL.

<21 top-six RFA forwards typically go long term on a cap hit of 6+ million.

Tkachuk's value is more than offense as well. Going for the max years at around ~6.5 million would be a sensible move from Calgary.

Who are you using as comparables here? Unless you're using Pasta or centers I don't see how you're going getting 6.5 as "standard". IMO the comparables here are more along the lines of Mantha/Domi/E. Lindholm

Then you don't know very much about Tkachuk

Paying for "grit" is generally a bad plan

 

[VoluntaryDom]

6-6.5

 

[StreetHawk]

97 points in 144 games = 55 in an 82-game season

For context, saad was a 47 and 52 point player for Years 2&3 of his elc and that netted him $6 mill by 6 years and that was 3 years ago when the cap was what like $72 million? 10% increase in the cap since then.

 

[North Man]

If you want to portray it that way to make him look better sure. The fact is, hes played 2 seasons and not accumulated more than 50 points either year.





Who are you using as comparables here? Unless you're using Pasta or centers I don't see how you're going getting 6.5 as "standard". IMO the comparables here are more along the lines of Mantha/Domi/E. Lindholm



Paying for "grit" is generally a bad plan

Have you watched the kid play? doesn't seem like it. Lets not forget he's only 20.

Chucky will get paid around 6-7 Mil over 7/8 years IMO

 

[Wayne Primeau]

Lol if Elias Lindholm is a comparable for Tkachuk then we sure as hell just fleeced Carolina

 

[DJJones]

Lol if Elias Lindholm is a comparable for Tkachuk then we sure as hell just fleeced Carolina

If lindholm is 75 percent of what tkachuk is I'll be so pumped

 

[Rubi]

There's been much discussion on here about what Nylander will sign for. AAV's from $6-8 mil have been thrown out.
I suspect that most NHL GMs would take Tkachuk over Nylander, if both were available and both had reasonable and similar contract term and AAV.

Tkachuk doesn't have the work "quit" in his vocabulary. This is the type of player that you want to go to war with come playoff time. He makes EVERYBODY on the team better. I wonder who Marner would chose as a team mate? Nylander or Tkachuk?

 

[DJJones]

If our 2nd line LW is getting 70 points, I'll be planning the route of the cup parade. Most likely he hits around 55 points, but could get more if his defensive assignments are paired back.

Ya. I would be overjoyed to give him that 7 million haha.

60 points with his playing style is fantastic. But hopefully with a better bottom 6 the 2nd line can be more offensive

 

[super6646]

Ya. I would be overjoyed to give him that 7 million haha.

60 points with his playing style is fantastic. But hopefully with a better bottom 6 the 2nd line can be more offensive

I'm fine with anything under 6, but I don't think our 2nd line LW should be getting Gaudreau like money, especially with Backlund getting 5.35 and Neal getting 5.75. It sets a bad precedent were RFA's are gonna get overpaid for "intangibles". I like Chucky, but I don't like him that much. Anyway, I think Backlund's AAV would be fair, but I guess most other fans think otherwise.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

Seems like a serious overpay for a sub 50 point winger - especially given the number of RFA years involved.

Talk about splitting hairs.

48 points in 76 as a rookie.
49 in 68 as a sophomore.

Despite being used on a shutdown line and 2nd PP time.

He’s easily a perennial 50+ point guy.

 

[Snakepit]

Seems like a serious overpay for a sub 50 point winger - especially given the number of RFA years involved.

He's so much more than offense though. That's sub 50 points in a shutdown role, will definitely be interesting to see what he does with Backlund and Neal this year

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Knowing how good of a negotiator that Treliving is, I expect he'll end up signing for Sean Monahan like numbers 7 yrs x $6.375 mil per year.

Agreed. This seems close. Player gets long term security. So does the team. At a fair price for both sides.

 

[bossram]

If you want to portray it that way to make him look better sure. The fact is, hes played 2 seasons and not accumulated more than 50 points either year.

Who are you using as comparables here? Unless you're using Pasta or centers I don't see how you're going getting 6.5 as "standard". IMO the comparables here are more along the lines of Mantha/Domi/E. Lindholm

1. The other guy you quoted is still correct. He's more like a 55 points per 82 games player right now, and can improve.

2. Yes, Pastrnak is one. But the likes of Hall, Eberle, Duchene, Monahan, Ehlers, Skinner, Scheifele are all around that 6 million mark. Most of them signed in their 2nd season, meaning they still had one more ELC year remaining before their 2nd contracts kicked in. Brandon Saad is probably the closest comparable in terms of the combination of production + shot metrics/defensive play, and he is still at 6 million. You also have to note all these were signed some time ago, when the cap was lower. If you take cap inflation into account, Tkachuk will easily clear 6 million long-term. Which is perfectly fair.

I'm a Canucks fan. I have no skin in the game here. But Tkachuk is a very good player, and will be paid fairly handsomely for it. He is far, far better than Mantha/Domi/Lindholm. That's just my honest assessment.

 

[Spazkat]

2. Yes, Pastrnak is one. But the likes of Hall, Eberle, Duchene, Monahan, Ehlers, Skinner, Scheifele are all around that 6 million mark. Most of them signed in their 2nd season, meaning they still had one more ELC year remaining before their 2nd contracts kicked in. Brandon Saad is probably the closest comparable in terms of the combination of production + shot metrics/defensive play, and he is still at 6 million. You also have to note all these were signed some time ago, when the cap was lower. If you take cap inflation into account, Tkachuk will easily clear 6 million long-term. Which is perfectly fair.

Of your list, Duchene, Monahan and Scheifele are all 1C's, not 2nd line wingers. Pasta and Hall signed those contracts after having 70 point seasons, Skinner after winning the Calder, Ehlers after back to back 60+ point seasons and Eberle was considered a mistake by almost everyone not from Edmonton (and was 1 of the first contracts they tried to dump once they got new management). Sadd's contract was, in large part, based on him being part of 2 Stanley cup wins, not strictly his regular season play/on ice production.

Those are bad examples

 

[TheDoldrums]

Tkachuk doesn't have the work "quit" in his vocabulary. This is the type of player that you want to go to war with come playoff time. He makes EVERYBODY on the team better. I wonder who Marner would chose as a team mate? Nylander or Tkachuk?

Marner would also chose Matt Martin as a teammate, that doesn't mean it's a good idea.

 

[DFF]

Of your list, Duchene, Monahan and Scheifele are all 1C's, not 2nd line wingers. Pasta and Hall signed those contracts after having 70 point seasons, Skinner after winning the Calder, Ehlers after back to back 60+ point seasons and Eberle was considered a mistake by almost everyone not from Edmonton (and was 1 of the first contracts they tried to dump once they got new management). Sadd's contract was, in large part, based on him being part of 2 Stanley cup wins, not strictly his regular season play/on ice production.

Those are bad examples

Maybe but he is closer to those guys than your examples of Mantha/Domi/Lindholm