Player Discussion Tim Stützle - LW/C - Part IV
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cudi
Mojo So Dope
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Micklebot
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Big Muddy
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Yep. I was about to post the same. I was a little surprised by the xGA/60 and CA/60. Not a total shocker, but ......
Notes/caveats: Would expect any team (or "line") stats to not be particularly flattering for a Senators player.
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ReginKarlssonLehner
Let's Win It All
Fancy stats say Stutzle is bad defensively (true) and bad offensively (not true) but has gotten lucky (somewhat true).
Micklebot
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DaveMatthew
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The sample size these numbers are based on is miniscule. That an analytics website would post these, good or bad, makes me believe that they don't actually understand statistics.
When you have a couple years of data on a player, you can start identifying trends. 25 games? It's meaningless.
Liver King
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When I watch him play I see him as some combination of the Terminator, Superman, and Jesus
Just in the way he plays, I would say those are my comparables
coladin
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Timo is pretty nifty, powerful skater, same size, and has a great release. I think as a 2nd tier comparison, other than being a star with his own unique qualities, seems pretty decent. I watched some clips of Timo and there are some similarities. He is a 30 goal, 60-70 point player.
Big Muddy
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OK. My comment was more a general comment about Senator players as a whole. But, more importantly, I haven't really spent too much time looking at the advanced stats, so I guess nothing really surprises me.
My impressions of advanced stats are really kind of all over the place. I would like to see how they collect those stats from an objective, quality control type perspective.
Alf Silfversson
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To me, Timo is a much thicker player who plays a more of a north-south power game. Right now at least Stü is a much more creative and quick player (projects to be especially).
I will say this about Stützle, I think he'll end up being really good at protecting the puck in his prime. He has the edges and tecnhique to get low and explode into the player while he protects the puck. We've already seen it a couple of times where he drives the defender away while maintaining possession. Once he gets stronger I think he'll be able to do this to more and more players around the league. Reminiscent of how Forsberg used to play down low.
cudi
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Fair enough. I don't see it much but I appreciate the break down.
I think if he's a centre he's a more physical Barzal who shoots more.
Hmm basically. Stutzle is putting up the points. But lafraniere has been a little better offensively but the points just haven’t come. And a little better defensively. Actually that’s misleading. The rangers are better defensively with lafraniere on the ice than the sens are with stutzle on the ice. Which makes sense. The rangers are a better team.
The point of the post was that it’s a little premature to say stutzle should have went first or that laf is a bust. Laf has actually played fine. He’s even played well relative to how stutzle has played.
Micklebot
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It really depends on the metric how big of a sample you need before they stabilize and become somwhat predictive of future results.
A while back, i remember reading a study that found Corsi took about 20 games (depends on the players mins) while goal based stats took about a year. That was a big part of the appeal to shot based metric, because you have significantly more incidents the volatility levels off much faster.
xG stats are essentially corsi in terms of the number of events tracked so i imagine they are pretty similar in terms of the required sample.
All that is not to say these things are perfect, there are going to be exception, and areas where the stats are not really useful, and while the guy pulling stuff from evolving hockey and posting these stats on twitter might not have the best handle on what kind of sample is needed to be meaningful, i can assure you that the guys at evolving hockey themselves do.
It’s a site. They need to publish content. How rookies are doing is always a hot topic. They’re not gonna be like “sorry too early to post any stats about these guys come back in five years. Those charts aren’t predicting a trend. They’re a snapshot of what they’ve done up until now
ijif
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The data is gathered from NHL PBP data, so the input data quality is dependent on the NHL. It is commonly accepted that the data does have flaws.
DJB
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He looked comfortable out there and created things. Doesn't look out of place.
Lucky? It feels like the opposite for the past couple of weeks, he's gotten robbed on a ton of scoring chances.
Micklebot
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Glad to hear it, not that I'd make any judgement based on that tirefire of a game.
DJB
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Even when they are not miniscule you see where guys are 'way better' and they are dealing with 1 or 2 % of some nonsense.
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