Thoughts on a postseason run?

[salbutera]

In 13-14 the forwards were close. Knock on Weise all you want but the guy was money in the POs.
Him and Briere on the bottom line, Eller-Bourque-Gionta was a great third line after we acquired Vanek.
So it's debatable if we're deeper today, but let's say we are. On defense, it ain't the case.

13-14 team had nowhere close to the talent on 4th line or 3rd pairing D - unless Briere by himself is considered a line.

This is the deepest Habs team since the 1986 Cup team, because truth be told the 93 team does nothing in the playoffs without that Cinderella run by DiPietro - whose NHL career was toast within a couple of years thereafter

 

[Kriss E]

What about 2011 Bruins? 1c was 55pts Bergeron. In hindsight we treat them as a

2011 Bruins were very similar to the Habs. Every line was a scoring threat. I remember the 4th line was dominant every shift in the playoff...the best possession team in the league.

This year, every Habs line dominate possession, we have a top 15 goalscorer/60 min on our first 3 lines...the team plays a pretty consistent 5v5 game, good system not allowing a lot of quality chances...best 5v5 goal differential.

If it was any other team posting those stats, we would treat them as contenders.

Bergeron is a HoF player and look up Krejci, he put up a ppg pace basically in the POs. Not to mention, again, their defense.

For us, we have two young kids still trying to establish their game at the NHL level, and our defense is actually our weakness.

Like. .legit nothing is similar.

 

[Kriss E]

13-14 team had nowhere close to the talent on 4th line or 3rd pairing D - unless Briere by himself is considered a line.

This is the deepest Habs team since the 1986 Cup team, because truth be told the 93 team does nothing in the playoffs without that Cinderella run by DiPietro - whose NHL career was toast within a couple of years thereafter

Meh...the 4th line isn't going to be what gets you the Cup.

 

[salbutera]

Bergeron is a HoF player and look up Krejci, he put up a ppg pace basically in the POs. Not to mention, again, their defense.

For us, we have two young kids still trying to establish their game at the NHL level, and our defense is actually our weakness.

Like. .legit nothing is similar.

2011 Bruins D is very similar to Habs:

At 34 Chara was less mobile than Weber today, his partner was Seidenberg who wasn’t much more mobile than Chiarot

They had no Petry on 2nd pair and as I stated earlier Romanov & Kulak are far superior to Ference who was their only other mobile Dman

It’s this Habs D group which is superior

In 2011 no one was mentioning HOF w Bergeron, and Plekanec owned Krejci every playoffs, just sayin...

 

[salbutera]

Meh...the 4th line isn't going to be what gets you the Cup.

It’s always the 3rd & 4th line players who are the differentiators w focus on shutting down top-6.

TBay last year: Coleman et al..
Hawks Cups: Ladd, Brouwer, Bickell, Shaw

Just look at Habs 86 Cup and the key role of Skrudland-McPhee-Lemieux line

 

[DAChampion]

It’s always the 3rd & 4th line players who are the differentiators w focus on shutting down top-6.

TBay last year: Coleman et al..
Hawks Cups: Ladd, Brouwer, Bickell, Shaw

Hawks won their Cups due to Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Seabrook, Keith, Hossa, etc.

The focus on Ladd and Shaw was media narrative, but not reality.

Also, the Habs have a rotation of Perry, Armia, Lehkonen, Staal?, Evans on their 4th line. It's not the teams weak link.

 

[salbutera]

Hawks won their Cups due to Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Seabrook, Keith, Hossa, etc.

The focus on Ladd and Shaw was media narrative, but not reality.

Agree top-6 needs to contribute or there’s zero chance of winning but the margin difference has always been the depth and clutch performance of 3rd & 4th lines

How many game winner & OT winners did the Shaw, Ladds etc score?

 

[WeThreeKings]

They could get out fo the Canadian division, but that's no real feat.

They'd get smashed against the contenders from the other divisions, though.

To be a true contender -
We needed a steep progression from Suzuki & KK - while still progressing, it hasn't been steep enough to contend this year.
We needed Weber to not break down - while not useless, he's breaking down and is no longer a top pairing D.
Price to be otherworldly - he's coming back to that level now, but it won't make a difference with A & B.

 

[Sorinth]

It’s always the 3rd & 4th line players who are the differentiators w focus on shutting down top-6.

TBay last year: Coleman et al..
Hawks Cups: Ladd, Brouwer, Bickell, Shaw

Just look at Habs 86 Cup and the key role of Skrudland-McPhee-Lemieux line

The 3rd/4th line are differentiators when your top lines have elite players that can match the elite players on the opposing team. Unless you have to elite players (Really elite performances such as Cammalleri in our run) then the 3rd/4th line isn't going to matter.

 

[Kriss E]

It’s always the 3rd & 4th line players who are the differentiators w focus on shutting down top-6.

TBay last year: Coleman et al..
Hawks Cups: Ladd, Brouwer, Bickell, Shaw

Just look at Habs 86 Cup and the key role of Skrudland-McPhee-Lemieux line

Not exactly no. You need your top guys to lead otherwise you ain't going nowhere.
The depth helps give you crucial goals but theyre useless without the top guys.
We ain't doing crap even if Evans and Perry do well but Suzuki KK Price and Weber aren't sharp AF.

Our issue is whether or not our top guys can compete with the Matthews/Marner, Scheiffler/Wheeler, McDavid/Draisalt of this NHL world.

 

[Mrb1p]

Best tandem goal-tending,best goalie? obviously debatable but there is handful I'd take ahead of Montreal's anointed #1

He has been the best PO goalie stats wise since like 2014 now. Last year he was by far the most dominant goalie, on play alone.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Not saying I disagree w sentiment, but a couple of data points to keep in mind;

- 2011 era Bergeron was a 50-55 point C....very Danault-esque

- Chara turned 34 during that regular season

- Seidenberg & Ference were the only Dman to be considered PMD category, are Kulak & Romanov really that inferior in comparison?

Kulak is a scrub. Romanov has potential to be a really good blueliner but he’s green.

What about 2011 Bruins? 1c was 55pts Bergeron. In hindsight we treat them as a

2011 Bruins were very similar to the Habs. Every line was a scoring threat. I remember the 4th line was dominant every shift in the playoff...the best possession team in the league.

This year, every Habs line dominate possession, we have a top 15 goalscorer/60 min on our first 3 lines...the team plays a pretty consistent 5v5 game, good system not allowing a lot of quality chances...best 5v5 goal differential.

If it was any other team posting those stats, we would treat them as contenders.

The 2011 Bruins were among the weakest cup winners of all time. We were an OT goal away from eliminating them in the 1st round.

He has been the best PO goalie stats wise since like 2014 now. Last year he was by far the most dominant goalie, on play alone.

Only bad year was 2013 and we were ahead in game six when Price got hurt late in the game against the Sens. Our backup took over and we lost the game and the series.

 

[Mrb1p]

Agree top-6 needs to contribute or there’s zero chance of winning but the margin difference has always been the depth and clutch performance of 3rd & 4th lines

How many game winner & OT winners did the Shaw, Ladds etc score?

Game winners dont happen without the offensive production from stars.

You were fed this myth by the media and you ate it up. Depth players are almost inconsequential to cup runs.

 

[Essenege]

Bergeron is a HoF player and look up Krejci, he put up a ppg pace basically in the POs. Not to mention, again, their defense.

For us, we have two young kids still trying to establish their game at the NHL level, and our defense is actually our weakness.

Like. .legit nothing is similar.

He’s a HOF in hindsight. Based on both analytics and point production he wasn’t that player yet in 2011 (although he was very good)

As for Krejci, 50-70 points player can be a PPG in the playoff over 20-25 games, especially on a winning stretch. Again, you’re using hindsight. Cammalleri was a PPG player, 50+ goal pace in 2010 PO for example.

I don’t think we’re as good as they were, but we have the same strength they had (an elite shutdown line, 5v5 scoring from every line, good team defense, good possession game)

The biggest difference for me is that 2011 Thomas had probably the best post-lockout season (with 2014-2015 Price not far). I don’t think 2021 Price is at that level but he very well could be on a shorter stretch.

 

[Lshap]

Habs avg 3.5PIM less under Dom Dom, which also becomes a key factor if trend holds over larger sample set & continuing into playoffs - with their North Division competition boasting 3-Eite PPs (Edm, Leafs, Jets)

That's a huge stat I never even noticed (although Chiarot's absence accounts for a good chunk of it). Avoiding penalties definitely tilts the odds in Montreal's favour.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

That's a huge stat I never even noticed (although Chiarot's absence accounts for a good chunk of it). Avoiding penalties definitely tilts the odds in Montreal's favour.

Esp considering how weak out PK has been.

If we even had an average PK, Price's numbers would be looking so much better this season.

 

[IdontSpitOnTheIce]

They could win the division and ideally Price would make us contenders then.

 

[Lshap]

Ranking teams on their playoff strengths is tough, but a good start is eliminating the 'gimmick' points in OT and SO. The gimmick in this case is the extra winner point, not the loser point. Score in a 3-on-3 or shootout format and you get a bonus point – an added-on gimmick – which has nothing to do winning a normal hockey game and has no relevance to the playoffs.

What about the 'loser point'? There's no such thing – teams have always earned a point for finishing in a tie after 60 minutes. Always. Losing in a 3-on-3 OT isn't a loss, it's a failure to earn the extra gimmick point. That's not semantics; it's how hockey has worked from day-one. Tied after 60 minutes, get a point.

So let's look at the adjusted standings without the 'gimmick' points:

Toronto: 45 pts. (37 GP)
Edmonton: 45 pts. (38 GP)
Winnipeg: 41 pts. (38 GP)
Montreal: 40 pts. (33 GP)
Calgary: 33 pts. (38 GP)
Vancouver: 30 pts. (37 GP)

Looking only at regulation/playoff format hockey, Montreal is doing very well.

 

[Lshap]

Esp considering how weak out PK has been.

If we even had an average PK, Price's numbers would be looking so much better this season.

I agree with you about the D. It drives me crazy watching us struggle to win battles in our zone and move the puck out cleanly. Imagine Markov on this team....

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I agree with you about the D. It drives me crazy watching us struggle to win battles in our zone and move the puck out cleanly. Imagine Markov on this team....

I just made a crazy post on how I'd go after OEL in the trade thread. My God if we could get him we'd be a legit contender for the next couple of years.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Esp considering how weak out PK has been.

If we even had an average PK, Price's numbers would be looking so much better this season.

If he stopped more pucks and didn’t let softies in every game for a 2 month stretch he would probably have better numbers too.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

If he stopped more pucks and didn’t let softies in every game for a 2 month stretch he would probably have better numbers too.

That is true.

But consider this, with even average PK numbers his save percentage would have been .917 going into the last game. And that's including the softies.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

That is true.

But consider this, with even average PK numbers his save percentage would have been .917 going into the last game. And that's including the softies.

See, I don’t think you can separate Price from the awful PK numbers. He has contributed to them, so this is pretty meaningless.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

See, I don’t think you can separate Price from the awful PK numbers. He has contributed to them, so this is pretty meaningless.

Our PK has been terrible the moment we gave away Markov. They are related.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Our PK has been terrible the moment we gave away Markov. They are related.

Ok.