Thoughts on a postseason run?

[Mrb1p]

Esp considering how weak out PK has been.

If we even had an average PK, Price's numbers would be looking so much better this season.

Ya, Price has a .923 ES save percentage, good for 10th in the league.

His PK save % is good for 7th in the league, but its 7th worse. The PK really has been horrible for his stats.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Ya, Price has a .923 ES save percentage, good for 10th in the league.

His PK save % is good for 7th in the league, but its 7th worse. The PK really has been horrible for his stats.

As LSHAP pointed out, it's not just that our PK is bad it's the sheer volume of penalties. And how many times were we down and then would put the puck over the glass? Just a terrible start to the year penalty wise. I don't know if it was just a fluke or what but it was horrible. We lost two games to the Leafs alone based on penalties.

 

[Mrb1p]

As LSHAP pointed out, it's not just that our PK is bad it's the sheer volume of penalties. And how many times were we down and then would put the puck over the glass? Just a terrible start to the year penalty wise. I don't know if it was just a fluke or what but it was horrible. We lost two games to the Leafs alone based on penalties.

Its what happens when you rely on grenade launchers instead of defensemen.

 

[ZUKI]

We probably will get ousted in the first round or 2nd at best, which would spell the end of Bergevin.

i disagree about Bergevin being fired if we make the POs .we finished 24th last season and if we make a round or two, it's a big progression. I think that Molson doesn't look at the season the way fans do; he looks more at the progression, the players that will come soon , and at the long run

 

[Archijerej]

I think there are lots of question marks about this group, which makes it very unpredictable. This alone prevents this team from being classified as a genuine contender that can take on Tampa, Vegas or Colorado. On the other hand, I think this group has the potential to come out of division and reach the final four.

Rested Price is certainly capable of a world class performance. Allen allows to manage his workload in the regular season.

Everyone and their mother agrees that we could use a top-4 LD who complements Weber better than Chiarot or Edmundson. The thing is, I think the management decided that it's just a reality of a salary cap league and Weber is a player of sufficient quality to make his paring on his own, the way, say, Hedman does. I think they were not entirely wrong in that assumption, as the examples of Emelin, Mete and Chiarot have shown. The question is, is Weber still that kind of player? It could go either way in the playoffs, maybe he'll find a second gear, but the crazy workload this year has me pessimistic.

Petrys' pairing, whether he plays with Edmundson or Kulak, should be ok.

I think the most realistic low-key move before the deadline could be to provide Romanov with a steady RD partner. Let's make it a comitee on defence as well. You can survive icing an iffy 3rd pairing, but if it adds to other existing problems, it might be a straw that breaks the camels' back.

The center position is the most volatile, given the age of the players concerned. They can explode like last year, or they can just as easily collapse under the grueling schedule and we will flop in the first round. Staal was likely a necessary addition here.

At the wings we are fine, although lacking a star forward. Toffoli and Anderson could prove to be key additions for the playoffs. Anderson repeating his playoff exploits from Columbus could alone be a crucial factor.

All in all, I have no idea how far we can go, but it sure should be entertaining.

 

[ZUKI]

Silver lining.

I don't see him doing anything at the deadline. The man likes cheap deals and won't pony up. Too bad too because we've had our chances over the years.

cheap deals like the ones of Weber, Anderson and Staal, or cheap contracts for the Toffoli or Perry.. all bottom lines players

 

[yianik]

Edmunson and Chiarot are no.4 D, we don't need anymore so called No.4 Ds , what we need is a no.2 D. And a PMD no.2 D. Yeah, like Ekholm.

Come playoff time especially, having a couple of guys at least to carry the puck up ice will keep another team from completely hemming us in if we can only quick pass it up the boards.

At centre we have two real good kids with a lot of promise who are still on that learning curve. Danault and Staal are important here clearly, but there are big questions marks.

At wing and goal we are real good.

So if Suzuki and KK along with Danault can produce at 50 plus point rates in the post season, I could see us winning a couple of rounds, maybe even with the D as is. With an Ekholm, good chance of winning two rounds if no important roster piece leaves.

A few IFs there, but its how it is.

 

[abo9]

Can having four 2nd lines make up for not having elite talent?
Can having Price back on track make up for a pretty weak defence corps?

Hard to say. I like our chances coming out of the North division, but I'm not sold on how we'll look against other teams.

Would any playoff team play a trio of Armia - Staal - Perry on the second line? We have 3 "second lines".

I believe the biggest issue is that contender teams like Tampa and Washington have it "all". They have elite talent scattered on the first 2 lines, but they also have a solid 3rd and a 4th that doesn't actively hurt them. Even a team like Carolina has 3 solid lines with some elite talent scattered. And they all have good defenses. Teams like the Pens or Edmonton are surviving the regular season because of their... extraordinary superstars, but it shows in the playoffs that they lack support.

Personally though, I'm excited for the playoffs, as opposed to last year's gimmicky ones. I don't think we're as easy a target.

 

[salbutera]

Esp considering how weak out PK has been.

If we even had an average PK, Price's numbers would be looking so much better this season.

Why is it a weak Habs PK, and not 4-of the elite PPs of the league being in this so called weak division?

 

[smirob]

Honestly....I want the leafs first round.

Not the smartest move I know, but the chance of eliminating them is too good to give up.

Between them and the Jets, both are tough opponents.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Why is it a weak Habs PK, and not 4-of the elite PPs of the league being in this so called weak division?

Our PK has been weak since we started putting scrubs on our left side. It's not just this year.

But at least now we've cut way down on the volume of penalties so that helps.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

Edmundson - Weber

Great post, the contract is so obvious it's entirely reassuring.

However, I really feel that Weber will once again "fall off a cliff" and not because he will be terrible in the playoffs, but because he will be tired from all the games that will have to be played before we are even in the playoffs. His playoff pedigree has never lived up to his regular season pedigree. Watching him the playoffs has always left me with a lot more to be desired. Pairing him with Edmundson is setting him up to fail. He really needs to have a D who can transition the puck and get it off his stick. I also believe he needs to be a top4 guy, not a top2 guy. Give Petry Edmundson back and have them be the top pair and shelter Weber. I really had hoped that Romanov could have been that pair for Weber but after losing back to backs against Calgary, in what may have been their most frustrated games, they never entertained that pair again.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

cheap deals like the ones of Weber, Anderson and Staal, or cheap contracts for the Toffoli or Perry.. all bottom lines players

What has MB done at the deadline to acquire help for his playoff push (top6 F, top4 D). Both were in the same off season with Vanek and Weaver and even then Vanek was the scape goat. @Lafleurs Guy isn't exaggerating when saying that MB will only make cheap deals. It's not a bad strategy, however it is a terrible strategy when you have glaring needs and you go into the playoffs with the "anything can happen" mentality.

 

[Kriss E]

He’s a HOF in hindsight. Based on both analytics and point production he wasn’t that player yet in 2011 (although he was very good)

As for Krejci, 50-70 points player can be a PPG in the playoff over 20-25 games, especially on a winning stretch. Again, you’re using hindsight. Cammalleri was a PPG player, 50+ goal pace in 2010 PO for example.

I don’t think we’re as good as they were, but we have the same strength they had (an elite shutdown line, 5v5 scoring from every line, good team defense, good possession game)

The biggest difference for me is that 2011 Thomas had probably the best post-lockout season (with 2014-2015 Price not far). I don’t think 2021 Price is at that level but he very well could be on a shorter stretch.

You're nitpicking to bolster your belief.
Bergeron was already considered to be one of, if not the, best two way center in the game.
At the end of the day, Krejci was a ppg player in the PO, Bergy close to it. So if you're gonna point at them it's important to note how you need players to raise their game, and again, you're completely ignoring how strong they were defensively. Also, the Bruins perfected their bullying ways during that PO. They were nasty, big, and tough to play against.

So when you start to actually analyze, even for a team without a Crosby type top center, you still need your centers to produce as if they are elite, and you need a lot of skills elsewhere and an edge in your game.

Saying the Bruins didn't have a top center therefore you never know is very shortsighted in terms of analysis.

 

[CHwest]

You guys are being lulled into a false sense of greatness. We are nowhere near a run, it is the division we play in that has you fooled.

 

[Draft]

Would any playoff team play a trio of Armia - Staal - Perry on the second line? We have 3 "second lines".

I believe the biggest issue is that contender teams like Tampa and Washington have it "all". They have elite talent scattered on the first 2 lines, but they also have a solid 3rd and a 4th that doesn't actively hurt them. Even a team like Carolina has 3 solid lines with some elite talent scattered. And they all have good defenses. Teams like the Pens or Edmonton are surviving the regular season because of their... extraordinary superstars, but it shows in the playoffs that they lack support.

Personally though, I'm excited for the playoffs, as opposed to last year's gimmicky ones. I don't think we're as easy a target.

Drouin-Suzuki-Anderson
Tatar-Danault-Gallagher
Toffoli-Kotkaniemi-Armia

Lehkonen-Staal-Perry

I'm 100% exaggerating. The high-quality depth is just getting a bit out of hand - we definitely have four guys that can play 2C and absolutely no forward that could be considered elite.

I'd agree that we're better off this year than last - having Staal as an option if Suzuki/Kotkaniemi /Danault falter is big. If Chiarot can come back and be somewhere between the solid second pairing guy he was last year and the tire-fire he was to start the season.... Habs are in good shape.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

You guys are being lulled into a false sense of greatness. We are nowhere near a run, it is the division we play in that has you fooled.

It'll still be fun to exit the Canadian division as champions. Agreed this team is far from being a top contender, but not as far if they can fix the major issue on D.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

Drouin-Suzuki-Anderson
Tatar-Danault-Gallagher
Toffoli-Kotkaniemi-Armia

Lehkonen-Staal-Perry

I'm 100% exaggerating. The high-quality depth is just getting a bit out of hand - we definitely have four guys that can play 2C and absolutely no forward that could be considered elite.

I'd agree that we're better off this year than last - having Staal as an option if Suzuki/Kotkaniemi /Danault falter is big. If Chiarot can come back and be somewhere between the solid second pairing guy he was last year and the tire-fire he was to start the season.... Habs are in good shape.

Given the uncertainty of this season, this team might be good enough to surprise. Albeit I am extremely skeptical given the number of games played before the playoffs and if I know the NHL that playoffs will be accelerated to try and get to a "normal" june draft, july offseason.

 

[abo9]

You guys are being lulled into a false sense of greatness. We are nowhere near a run, it is the division we play in that has you fooled.

They would be a wildcard in the Atlantic imo. I don't see a problem in discussing a playoff run.

If you asked me last season, absolutely it was ridiculous to think about it. But we added 2 top 6 wingers, 2 NHL-quality defensemen (to oust guys like Mete and Rielly from regular spots). We even added Perry who's a quality depth player better than a Jordan Weal type.

It's small things, it doesn't make us contenders but it's something.

 

[CHfan1]

I think they can get through the Canadian division, although it’ll be tough. Price will have to be at the top of his game. After that it depends on who they face and if there are upsets in the other divisions.

The way it’s looking now (in the overall standings) if both TB and Colorado get through Montreal would most likely face one of them in the semi-finals. I can’t see the Habs beating either of those two teams in a 7 game series.

 

[Habs]

You guys are being lulled into a false sense of greatness. We are nowhere near a run, it is the division we play in that has you fooled.

All the divisions have their flaws, the CDN division is a grind like any other and there are no easy games.

 

[Essenege]

You're nitpicking to bolster your belief.
Bergeron was already considered to be one of, if not the, best two way center in the game.
At the end of the day, Krejci was a ppg player in the PO, Bergy close to it. So if you're gonna point at them it's important to note how you need players to raise their game, and again, you're completely ignoring how strong they were defensively. Also, the Bruins perfected their bullying ways during that PO. They were nasty, big, and tough to play against.

So when you start to actually analyze, even for a team without a Crosby type top center, you still need your centers to produce as if they are elite, and you need a lot of skills elsewhere and an edge in your game.

Saying the Bruins didn't have a top center therefore you never know is very shortsighted in terms of analysis.

Let’s not over emphasize their defence. They had 35 less goal against then expected goal against. Basically means Thomas was a beast all season long.

At the end of the day, there’s multiple ways to win, I think the Habs have a potent recipe with team defence + offence depth.

 

[Kriss E]

Let’s not over emphasize their defence. They had 35 less goal against then expected goal against. Basically means Thomas was a beast all season long.

At the end of the day, there’s multiple ways to win, I think the Habs have a potent recipe with team defence + offence depth.

You have no basis to go on to suggest Habs could win with two young decent centers leading the way and an immobile defense. The saving grace is our division.

 

[Essenege]

You have no basis to go on to suggest Habs could win with two young decent centers leading the way and an immobile defense. The saving grace is our division.

What’s your basis?

My basis is we are top 5 in xGF% for the third season in a row, this time with more potent finishers and an improved defence....Resulting in the best 5v5 differential in the division (in the league for that matter but this has less value this year)

Agree with this basis or not, it’s still a pretty good basis.

 

[Archijerej]

We needed Weber to not break down - while not useless, he's breaking down and is no longer a top pairing D.

Compare Webers' EV GA/60 with last season and with some of the household names around the league. I think you may find your opinion that he's not a top pairing D a bit premature. Also, factor in the schedule this season, which is bound to affect a 35-years old player more severely, but which is basically an anomaly.

I'm deliberately not using the PK stats, as there is no logical explanation why an aspect of Webers' play, which should be least affected by age, shouldn't be attributed to systematical problems with our penalty killing and Prices' crappy form.

Weber might very well no longer be a defenceman who can carry the first pairing on his own, but I think the narrative sorrounding him this season is just that, a narrative. Like Gallaghers' perennial decline, Danault being the third-best center on the team and Edmundson being the worst defenceman in the NHL.