Blue Jays Discussion: The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. injury overreaction thread

[TheTotalPackage]

Why not?

I assume those who don't use Facebook like myself won't/can't watch.

 

[Garlando]

For anyone who is following MLB draft prospects trying to learn about some of the Jays potential choices with the #12 overall pick in the June Draft, Fangraphs released their updated draft rankings here: Updated 2018 MLB Draft Rankings | FanGraphs Baseball

Personal favs in the range of the Jays pick are the following:

Connor Scott
Kumar Rocker
Ryan Rolison
Brice Turang
Cole Winn
Cole Wilcox - Personal fav! Sinking Fastball that reaches 96, flashes plus slider, plus Change with solid mechanics which he repeats well

 

[Longshot]

I don't get it. Facebook is essentially stripping teams out of their regional TV deals? It's not like this game is part of a national package. Even putting aside the fact the cable company broadcasting the games owns the team.

I must be missing something.

I think that's the whole point. They taking select "regular" games from each team and selling them to Facebook as a national package.

I don't have an issue with it (and actually think it might be a cool way to see teams in other markets on occasion), other than I think the local broadcasts should remain on local TV.

 

[Discoverer]

I think that's the whole point. They taking select "regular" games from each team and selling them to Facebook as a national package.

I don't have an issue with it (and actually think it might be a cool way to see teams in other markets on occasion), other than I think the local broadcasts should remain on local TV.

And MLB TV markets themselves as allowing you to watch every game.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

I think that's the whole point. They taking select "regular" games from each team and selling them to Facebook as a national package.

That's fine. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the concept of it. MLB can just select games from each team to sell to Facebook? Are those companies who are losing these games being compensated accordingly?

 

[Longshot]

That's fine. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the concept of it. MLB can just select games from each team to sell to Facebook? Are those companies who are losing these games b
being compensated accordingly?

I don't know how it works. I can't imagine Rogers is very happy about today. The Leafs are off. The Raptors are off. It's a 4 p.m. game. The team is off to a good start, they are probably losing a huge audience this afternoon. However, I doubt the Blue Jays would have known when this was decided that the TV market in Toronto is free today.

I would guess MLB informed all the teams of this move and subsequently they sold their packages with two less games. I assume there are clauses in all team's TV contracts that say sometimes they will lose local games to national broadcasts. Facebook purchases the game and the revenue goes to MLB and is distributed equally to each team (internet revenues in baseball are equal shares).

 

[Kurtz]

It is absolutely criminal that we haven't made him a starter.

You want to see the Jays turn Osuna into a starter (which would require that he spends time in the minors and be shut down early), yet you're simultaneously disappointed that the Jays are trying to turn Biagini into a starter by having him spend time in the minors.

For this contradiction to resolve itself I think you'd need to be able to show that the delta between an ace closer vs a good starter (Osuna) is greater than the delta between a good reliever vs average starter (Biagini).

 

[Kurtz]

I don't know how it works. I can't imagine Rogers is very happy about today. The Leafs are off. The Raptors are off. It's a 4 p.m. game. The team is off to a good start, they are probably losing a huge audience this afternoon. However, I doubt the Blue Jays would have known when this was decided that the TV market in Toronto is free today.

I would guess MLB informed all the teams of this move and subsequently they sold their packages with two less games. I assume there are clauses in all team's TV contracts that say sometimes they will lose local games to national broadcasts. Facebook purchases the game and the revenue goes to MLB and is distributed equally to each team (internet revenues in baseball are equal shares).

Could be - although I'd wager that MLB asked each team to submit a couple of possible games for this, and Rogers chose weekday games that were out of prime-time (at that time, they wouldn't have known what days the Leafs/Raptors would be playing), with MLB likely offering some compensation. Win win.

 

[HockeyThoughts]

Bautista signs a minor league deal with the Braves.

 

[Morgs]

Bautista signs a minor league deal with the Braves.

Makes sense after Acuna is obviously a bust at this point.

#VGJ

 

[zeke]

You want to see the Jays turn Osuna into a starter (which would require that he spends time in the minors and be shut down early), yet you're simultaneously disappointed that the Jays are trying to turn Biagini into a starter by having him spend time in the minors.

For this contradiction to resolve itself I think you'd need to be able to show that the delta between an ace closer vs a good starter (Osuna) is greater than the delta between a good reliever vs average starter (Biagini).

Osuna is an elite arm. He was an elite prospect. He is off to a hall of fame start to his career as a reliever. He is the youngest player on the team, and younger than many of our best "prospects". He has ace stuff and upside. He had elite performance for age and level as a starter in the minors. He never failed as a starter.

Biagini is a career overaged mediocre minor league starter who was able to convert into a good middle reliever in mlb in his late 20s, like many failed SP do. He has a very mediocre arsenal of pitches. He has been exceptionally middling to poor in any attempt to start in the majors. Our apparent "development" track has him on track to possibly have his first year as an actual mlb starter at age 29.

There is no contradiction.

Your attempt to equate the two takes far more explanation on your part than me pointing out the obvious, massive difference between them.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Rule 5 - Buck/Pat (Puck) feels the need to point this out whenever Joe pitches

 

[Longshot]

Makes sense after Acuna is obviously a bust at this point.

#VGJ

According to the Braves announcement he has been signed to play third base.

 

[doorman]

Osuna is an elite arm. He was an elite prospect. He is off to a hall of fame start to his career as a reliever. He is the youngest player on the team, and younger than many of our best "prospects". He has ace stuff and upside. He had elite performance for age and level as a starter in the minors. He never failed as a starter.

Biagini is a career overaged mediocre minor league starter who was able to convert into a good middle reliever in mlb in his late 20s, like many failed SP do. He has a very mediocre arsenal of pitches. He has been exceptionally middling to poor in any attempt to start in the majors. Our apparent "development" track has him on track to possibly have his first year as an actual mlb starter at age 29.

There is no contradiction.

Your attempt to equate the two takes far more explanation on your part than me pointing out the obvious, massive difference between them.

Turning him into a starter, if it even works would also increase the likely hood of him needing another Tommy John surgery or developing shoulder problems. Osuna seems to relish the roll of being the closer, so you go with it.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[Nineteen67]

I found the game on FB and I don’t care if it’s on FB or the at bat app, but MLB and Facebook , can you not use the current Jays logo and not the JP era thing in your link.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[Nineteen67]

Fingers crossed emoji

 

[robertmac43]

Bautista signs a minor league deal with the Braves.

LOL poor guy, wish he ended up somewhere nicer than the Gwinnett Stripers

 

[Kurtz]

Your attempt to equate the two takes far more explanation on your part than me pointing out the obvious, massive difference between them.

Fair enough.

As a prospect, Osuna was rated in the ballpark of Syndergaard, Sanchez, Stroman, Norris, Nolin, Hoffman, Greene.

Some of those guys have turned into aces, some are bottom rotation guys, and some won't make it as starters at all.

So if were to make a fair projection on Osuna...let's be somewhat optimistic and say he'd be a #2 guy. So we're trading an ace closer for a #2 guy. How much value are we getting?

Well, the most recently valued ace closer was Wade Davis - he signed for $17.5 mil/season. The most recent #2 guy was Yu Darvish - he signed for $21 mil/season.

So converting Osuna to a starter with the assumption that he'll be as good as Yu or another #2 guy would give us a surplus value of $3.5 mil/season.

Now look at Biagini. Let's say a fair/slightly optimistic projection on him is a #5 guy. Based on the recent free agent market, a #5 guy is worth $8-10 mil. What about a good but not great reliever? Without doing to0 much research, let's put that value at $5-7 mil.

So converting Joe into a #5 guy gives us a surplus value of $3 mil/season...in other words, nearly identical to converting Osuna to a #2 guy.


Off course we haven't factored in that Osuna would need to be shut down due to an innings increase in his first year, whereas Biagini would not. That would erode much, perhaps most, of Osuna's surplus value, making Biagini's conversion an equally smart, and perhaps smarter move.

 

[zeke]

Fair enough.

As a prospect, Osuna was rated in the ballpark of Syndergaard, Sanchez, Stroman, Norris, Nolin, Hoffman, Greene.

Some of those guys have turned into aces, some are bottom rotation guys, and some won't make it as starters at all.

So if were to make a fair projection on Osuna...let's be somewhat optimistic and say he'd be a #2 guy. So we're trading an ace closer for a #2 guy. How much value are we getting?

Well, the most recently valued ace closer was Wade Davis - he signed for $17.5 mil/season. The most recent #2 guy was Yu Darvish - he signed for $21 mil/season.

So converting Osuna to a starter with the assumption that he'll be as good as Yu or another #2 guy would give us a surplus value of $3.5 mil/season.

Now look at Biagini. Let's say a fair/slightly optimistic projection on him is a #5 guy. Based on the recent free agent market, a #5 guy is worth $8-10 mil. What about a good but not great reliever? Without doing to0 much research, let's put that value at $5-7 mil.

So converting Joe into a #5 guy gives us a surplus value of $3 mil/season...in other words, nearly identical to converting Osuna to a #2 guy.


Off course we haven't factored in that Osuna would need to be shut down due to an innings increase in his first year, whereas Biagini would not. That would erode much, perhaps most, of Osuna's surplus value, making Biagini's conversion an equally smart, and perhaps smarter move.

I don't think there's any way to work the valuations to make it a better bet to turn an top prospect into a closer rather than a top of the rotation starter.

And hey, if he did fail as a starter, he could always go back to closing.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Dang.

Double dang.

 

[TF97]

LOL poor guy, wish he ended up somewhere nicer than the Gwinnett Stripers

He is likely just going to the minor leagues to get in game shape and get some at bats. I have no doubt in my mind that we will see him as the Braves 3B sooner rather than later.

How long of a leash will he have? Well that is a different question.

 

[Discoverer]

He had elite performance for age and level as a starter in the minors.

I always liked Osuna as a prospect... but you are wildly misremembering Osuna's minor league career. He was always young for his level, and there were signs of dominance, but I wouldn't call his full season numbers "elite" by any stretch.

It was impressive enough that he played at those levels at 18-19 years old, of course, but he wasn't remotely close to dominating compared to the other handful of pitchers who did the same. He also threw 65 innings those two seasons combined.

 

[Nineteen67]

I tuned into the FB live and they’re showing Texas TB right now and the video quality is horrible and there are user comments taking up half the picture.