Blue Jays Discussion: The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. injury overreaction thread

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one77

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Dec 22, 2013
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This team/roster looks so deep and solid. Kind of like the Raptors depth and how it has performed.

JD coming back healthy will be huge. I also see Vlad/Bo getting called up at some point, IF they continue impressing (which they have been doing for a long time now).
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Finally gibby pinch hits grandy for hernandez and not pearce. Good. Pearce is not a platoon hitter. He shouldn't be treated like one.

I loved the Pearce signing from the minute it happened, and outside of April last year, he's been excellent (and a slow start last year shouldn't have been entirely unexpected since he was coming back from surgery).

Since May 1, he has a 126 wRC+ in 332 plate appearances. 149 wRC+ vs. lefties, 116 vs. righties.

He's a really, really good hitter, and he should be in the lineup every day.
 
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zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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He also hit .210 in 2015 in low A, .218 in 2016 in A and then .323 in 2017 in AA/AAA (and so far .387 this year in AAA), which he partially attributes to "improved vision" from the new pair of glasses he started wearing. That progression looks a bit spectacular, don't you think?

eh, not really. you're looking at some tiny samples there.

Overall, before last year his line over his first 4 years was:

712pa, 11.4bb%, 13.2k%, .259babip, .236avg, .104iso, 104wrc+


So we see a few things before last year's breakout year:

1) those 4 years add up to barely more than one total season, due to all the injuries.
2) he has elite bb/k numbers. That elite strike zone control has always been there.
3) his low average is accompanied by a low babip - which is probably due somewhat to weak contact but also to some bad luck. we can see the babip effect if we split that total back into years:

Yr1: .262babip, .246avg
Yr2: .294babip, .282avg
Yr3: .213babip, .206avg
Yr4: .268babip, .218avg

So even there we see that when his babip was decent his average was also good. Overall, his average tracks slightly behind his babip (~20pt or so).

4) we see that despite him being a big boy who had good raw power when drafted, he hadn't produced much game power at all before last year.

Overall his line was fundamentally solid, especially for a catching prospect - he was already an average hitter as is (which is great for a catcher), but the only thing holding him back from being a well above average hitter was babip and power - both things which his tools profile suggested he had in there somewhere.

and then we look at his numbers in the 1.1yrs since the breakout:

447pa, 10.1b%, 9.6k%, .342babip, .326avg, .166iso, 155wrc+

So we see:

1) The "breakout" performance is already creeping up to be almost as big as the previous 4 years combined.
2) the elite zone control numbers are still there - and even slightly better.
3) his average is still tracking around 20pts behing his babip - but his babip has improved hugely.
4) he has been able to turn his raw power into game power, which is common for prospects as they mature.

So while it is clear that he is just simply making better contact than he used to, which is boosting both his babip and power numbers, the improvement actually isn't anything too surprising, especially given his injury situation during those first four yers. There's actually nothing super dramatic about the improvement - neither the .342babip or the .166iso are crazy unsustainable levels for a prospect making good contact. In fact, those levels seem more sustainable than the .259babip and .104iso he was posting before last year, imo.
 
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zeke

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I loved the Pearce signing from the minute it happened, and outside of April last year, he's been excellent (and a slow start last year shouldn't have been entirely unexpected since he was coming back from surgery).

Since May 1, he has a 126 wRC+ in 332 plate appearances. 149 wRC+ vs. lefties, 116 vs. righties.

He's a really, really good hitter, and he should be in the lineup every day.

no question.

I expected the injuries last year but him not hitting was one of the bigger dissappointments of last year for me. He was the one pickup last year I was genuinely excited about.
 

nilan30

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Jan 14, 2004
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Donaldson coming back and replacing Ngoepe would makes the roster pretty much perfect. Unfortunately, Morales will come back and replace Teoscar and make it a little worse.

Could Mayza be sent down instead? I know it creates a logjam in both the infield and outfield but I think having many, healthy, able bodies is not a bad thing
 

zeke

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Zeuch has got off to a very good start. Should get the promotion to AA soon if he continues



he should be in AA already. I can only guess they wanted to keep him in the warmer weather to start the year.
 

zeke

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Donaldson coming back and replacing Ngoepe would makes the roster pretty much perfect. Unfortunately, Morales will come back and replace Teoscar and make it a little worse.

I was wondering whether Ngoepe would actually be the guy sent down but then I noticed that Gift actually only has 2 starts at SS and Solarte 1. And one of those starts for Gift game in the first series when gibby was just trying to get everyone in for a game, and when Diaz was coming off a poor spring and didn't look like a go-to option.

But with the way Diaz has played on both sides of the ball, now I'm starting to think Gift actually might get sent down, with Solarte the emergency SS.
 

dangomon

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Nov 4, 2017
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Anyone else really excited about what Zach Jackson may be able to bring to our bullpen? I see him coming up late this year and making an impact, guy has always been a stellar reliever in the minors.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Anyone else really excited about what Zach Jackson may be able to bring to our bullpen? I see him coming up late this year and making an impact, guy has always been a stellar reliever in the minors.

It would be really nice to see him cut down on the walks, but I think he'll be in the majors at some point this year.
 

horner

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May 22, 2007
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Nice
Rogers owns the team
Has a hot team
$$$$$$$$ out the window
And they bitch about money
Wow
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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Nice
Rogers owns the team
Has a hot team
$$$$$$$$ out the window
And they ***** about money
Wow

A) Not a Rogers decision.
B) Facebook is paying a bunch of money to show a bunch of games this year for all teams.
 

Longshot

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Jul 2, 2008
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They need to find a way to move on from Morales

I think they will eat the remainder on his contract sometime this season.

It's a sunk cost. They're not going to be able to move him to another team. There's a good chance Donaldson will need to be a DH regularly when he comes off the DL. And it's obvious the team is deeper and more talented with Teoscar present.
 

TootooTrain

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Jun 12, 2010
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I've never watched a sporting event off facebook. Do they have a cast function as part of their video player?
 
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TheTotalPackage

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Sep 14, 2006
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You can only watch it on Facebook. And no, that's not a joke. I mean... yeah, it's a joke. But I'm serious.

I don't get it. Facebook is essentially stripping teams out of their regional TV deals? It's not like this game is part of a national package. Even putting aside the fact the cable company broadcasting the games owns the team.

I must be missing something.
 
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