The Vision of Kyle Dubas

[HoweHullOrr]

Ya Dubas seemed to use Malkin as the closest comparable for Matthews (term and cap hit%) while Nylander was overpaid like 300-400k considering he gave up a lot less UFA years than his comparables. Dont think he got good deals, overpayments for sure but they shouldn't be a huge hindrance in the future.

Oh his contract looks genius now but at the time the general consensus was they overpaid him. Edmonton maybe saw his true potential or got lucky, we will never know.

Yep, I agree with that (bolded part).

 

[rumman]

I say the player that the Canes/Ducks covet the most between AJ, KK, and WN goes first.

trade Nylander, keep Kappy and Johsson. Nylander gets you the best return of the bunch and Kappy/Johsson combined and signed to reasonable deals are worth more than Nylander alone.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

trade Nylander, keep Kappy and Johsson. Nylander gets you the best return of the bunch and Kappy/Johsson combined and signed to reasonable deals are worth more than Nylander alone.

 

[Al14]

 

[socko]

The first order of business this summer should be defense and goaltending.
We have a lot of the same forward types. We must address the D and upgrade zone by zone.

We do, but let's go ahead and trade away the different one that grinds and plays defense. You can't ever have enough soft playmaking right wingers. Bring on Bracco. 3 lines of it. That's the Dubas formula for Cup magic.

 

[rumman]

 

[56 Years No Cup]

 

[4thline]

@RLF, the thing is that even if you ignore the OS threshold (a mistake IMO given Matthews inevitable demand if he reached July 1) the math comes back to that same ballpark unless you put an astronomical value on his Ufa Years. That model was based on 14.75 per UFA year. Using a 12.45 x 8 benchmark
at 15 per UFA you get a 9.9 RFA and 10.92 5 year av.
at 15.5 per UFA you get a 9.4 RFA and 10.62 5 year av.

Like I've been saying all along, it's 0.5-1 million high, not some calamity. The combined overage on Nylander and Matthews = the difference between Connor Brown and an ELC player on the 4th line.

 

[Bomber0104]

@RLF, the thing is that even if you ignore the OS threshold (a mistake IMO given Matthews inevitable demand if he reached July 1) the math comes back to that same ballpark unless you put an astronomical value on his Ufa Years. That model was based on 14.75 per UFA year. Using a 12.45 x 8 benchmark
at 15 per UFA you get a 9.9 RFA and 10.92 5 year av.
at 15.5 per UFA you get a 9.4 RFA and 10.62 5 year av.

Like I've been saying all along, it's 0.5-1 million high, not some calamity. The combined overage on Nylander and Matthews = the difference between Connor Brown and an ELC player on the 4th line.

He's overpaid and was granted highway access to leave the team almost as soon as he possibly can, and with a no-movement clause in his contract year to boot.

There's no way to spin how terrible of a deal it is.

 

[RLF]

@RLF, the thing is that even if you ignore the OS threshold (a mistake IMO given Matthews inevitable demand if he reached July 1) the math comes back to that same ballpark unless you put an astronomical value on his Ufa Years. That model was based on 14.75 per UFA year. Using a 12.45 x 8 benchmark
at 15 per UFA you get a 9.9 RFA and 10.92 5 year av.
at 15.5 per UFA you get a 9.4 RFA and 10.62 5 year av.

Like I've been saying all along, it's 0.5-1 million high, not some calamity. The combined overage on Nylander and Matthews = the difference between Connor Brown and an ELC player on the 4th line.

Man, I don't know how to say this anymore clearly, I have not and did not question the value on the UFA year(s) you have showed. I questioned your value on the RFA years being over $10M per for the 4 RFA years. I would put his 4 RFA years around $9M per max if he signed a contract including all four RFA years. anymore than that would be a massive overpayment as he walks at the end of 4 years, which would be a horrible contract length for the Leafs.
Add 1 year UFA at the $14.75M to the 4 years at $9M per you and we are at
5 Years at $10.15M per
6 years at $10.91M per
7 years at $11.46M per
8 years at $11.86M per

If you add a little cap inflation per year of bought UFA years, we would end up at about 8 X $12.5M per.

To me, you overvalued the RFA years for Matthews.

Saying it is only the difference of removing Brown to give Matthews and Nylander about $1.5-$2M(in my estimation) combined extra per season is missing the big picture imo.
Dubas has set new benchmarks and every player coming up for renewal, especially the ones of any consequence is going to expect top dollar. How can Dubas say no to them without saying we don't find you as important as the other two. Marner to start with. Then you got Dermott, Kap and Johnsson. Rielly and Freddie to think about. What if Sandin and Liligren come up and look really good. What will they expect coming off their ELCs, which would be at the same time either Freddie or Morgan are due. Overpaying on his first two contracts is not a good sign for our cap future. I am just hoping that he figures the cap is going up a lot and his contracts are reflecting it. If he is wrong, we could be in cap trouble continuously or having to move key pieces because we can't pay everyone their demands that they will expect due to the contracts he already offered.

 

[hotpaws]

He's overpaid and was granted highway access to leave the team almost as soon as he possibly can, and with a no-movement clause in his contract year to boot.

There's no way to spin how terrible of a deal it is.

i agree , there is no way to spin the deal but the Dubas fan club will bust there ass trying

 

[Trapper]

there is no way to spin the deal but the Dubas fan club busting there ass trying

Wait for it.
Matthews 5 years - NMC final year

Nylander 5 years (when Matthews kicks in) - limited 10 team NTC final year

Marner TBD is it going to be double digits and 5 years?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

All the analytics in the world missed one KEY thing this past week. Our depth defense is not NHL quality. Z, Marincin and Holl need to be moved out. We need 2 new vet defensive defenders next season. And one of Sandin/Lilly come up to be third offensive defenseman. They are cheaper type guys in CAP world so that is the good news. One of Johnsson or Kappy will have to go to make CAP work/ and get the vets due to the overpays by Dubas. Not a huge worry because we have depth in wingers. It can be done even with the expected Marner overpay this summer.

 

[jimmycarter]

If you can walk and talk....

 

[Metroid]

He's got great vision. Hard to get 2 teams into the playoffs

Wonder where Carolina would be if they didn't have the option of picking up McBackup.

 

[Stringer Bell]

As long as Dubas is here I don't think there is any future coach other than Keefe. I love the idea of Quenneville but unless Shanahan overrides Dubas I couldn't ever see Dubas knowingly hiring a coach who would probably disagree with almost everything he does.

 

[TheScandal89]

trade Nylander, keep Kappy and Johsson. Nylander gets you the best return of the bunch and Kappy/Johsson combined and signed to reasonable deals are worth more than Nylander alone.

I agree, but could also trade Kadri and use Willy as the 3rd centre if we wanted.

I think we could also look into trying to reclaim a 10th-15th overall pick to select winger Arthur Kaliyev. I think 2nd/3rd year of his ELC he can be a impact player for dirt cheap.

 

[killer1980]

Shots of him said it all, totally out of his league: Last-place Senators smash struggling Leafs | CBC Sports

 

[ACC1224]

He made need new glasses if his vision showed him that there was no need to add a depth defender at the deadline or that Sparks was a useful goalie.

 

[Trapper]

Shots of him said it all, totally out of his league: Last-place Senators smash struggling Leafs | CBC Sports

It was close to the Picard facepalm.

 

[Spirit of 67]

The only thing we can really conclude about him is he is still learning on the job.

So is this the only thing we can conclude?

Or, can we conclude this as well?.

Dubas seems largely clueless.

 

[rumman]

I agree, but could also trade Kadri and use Willy as the 3rd centre if we wanted.

I think we could also look into trying to reclaim a 10th-15th overall pick to select winger Arthur Kaliyev. I think 2nd/3rd year of his ELC he can be a impact player for dirt cheap.

I'm not sure Nylander would be happy being relegated to the 3rd line centre position permanently? I think he'd want a bigger role if for no other reason than financially going forward?

 

[4thline]

Man, I don't know how to say this anymore clearly, I have not and did not question the value on the UFA year(s) you have showed. I questioned your value on the RFA years being over $10M per for the 4 RFA years. I would put his 4 RFA years around $9M per max if he signed a contract including all four RFA years. anymore than that would be a massive overpayment as he walks at the end of 4 years, which would be a horrible contract length for the Leafs.
Add 1 year UFA at the $14.75M to the 4 years at $9M per you and we are at
5 Years at $10.15M per
6 years at $10.91M per
7 years at $11.46M per
8 years at $11.86M per

If you add a little cap inflation per year of bought UFA years, we would end up at about 8 X $12.5M per.

To me, you overvalued the RFA years for Matthews.

do the math of what you just suggested.

12.5 *8 = 100
9*4 + 14.75*4 = 95

Reconciling a 12.5x8 with RFA = 9 requires valuing UFA at a sky high 16 million, resulting in a 10.4 5 year deal.
It's a closed system. If you agree that ~12.5x8 is fair than any dollar removed from RFA gets added to UFA. You can't agree to 12.5 and 14.75UFA value while disagreeing with a 10.149 RFA value

 

[ACC1224]

Shots of him said it all, totally out of his league: Last-place Senators smash struggling Leafs | CBC Sports

Lol, was that picture taken when Sparkie went for a swim on the 5th goal?

 

[Trapper]

Lol, was that picture taken when Sparkie went for a swim on the 5th goal?

Took him a while to catch up.
I’ve been doing that since the Islander game.