The Vision of Kyle Dubas

[Goleafsgo95]

I haven't been overly active on this board in recent months so I may be wrong, but from talking to other Leaf fans and observing the media's take, I feel that the vision Dubas has is going over a lot of people's heads.

He acquired Jake Muzzin without giving up any prime assets. This did help improve our weakness, but he did not overpay to acquire the perfect fit, which would have been a player similar to Muzzin but right-handed. There is no question Muzzin will help our playoff chances this year, but it is widely agreed upon that Muzzin will likely replace Gardiner in next year's lineup. Additionally, it was very wise of him to acquire Muzzin a month or so prior to the deadline as I believe this will optimize his overall value and performance for the team in the long run.

The Nylander and Matthews contracts right now can definitely be seen as overpayments, but in a year or two they will be fair value or bargains. Marner is going to also get overpaid because of this. Tavares was fair value considering he's the best UFA center ever. The way these negotiations have resulted is less than ideal but if you're going to overpay someone, you might as well overpay your top players. The saving grace is that we have a Norris contender at a $5M caphit.

As opposed to spending a 2nd rounder on a 4th line center, Dubas traded Lindholm for Nic Petan, who has potential to become a depth scorer for the team in the future and help with the cap crunch. Ennis has been a good reclamation project. We also have veterans like Marleau and Hainsey who have done their job in helping our young players develop and will be off the books soon. Gardiner, who has proven to be a big-game liability will also be off the books. I believe they are holding out hope on Zaitsev returning to form over time and being a solid top 4. We now have Tavares and Muzzin who are both younger and better than Marleau and Hainsey as veterans who will help in terms of leadership but also help get it done on the ice.

I believe that Dubas doesn't think this is the year, although his acquisitions have undoubtedly bettered our chances for this year. This might be the year we get out of the 1st round, and if we do beat Boston who knows whether that momentum can push us further. This is one of the most skilled teams in the league, but there are teams out there that are far more seasoned and have been in contention for years. We might need more experience to be able to make that deep run all of us want, and I think Dubas recognizes that and that's why he didn't go overboard in rounding out the roster with a 4th line center and players like Simmonds/Ferland which many people were calling for. This group is good enough to do better and he's putting it on them to get it done. If they do, it's one step towards winning a cup in one of the following years.

I wanted Dubas to be more aggressive at the deadline, but I am starting to see his vision. He is disciplined in a long-term approach, trying to round out the team when opportunities come forward but not rushing to do anything drastic. I believe this year is seen as somewhat of another trial year by management to determine what further additions we need going forward, and also to decide on a captain, who I believe will be Tavares.

Lou did us a lot of good and it would have been nice to have had him negotiate the contracts for our young stars, but I'm coming to appreciate the long-term vision Dubas has. I would assume we have many more draft picks than many of the top contenders, so we will continue to fill the ranks with fresh players as the cap crunch ensues.

We have been seeing our forwards develop the past few years, but our D is a little behind although Rielly and Dermott have undoubtedly been bright spots. We still have to see what becomes of Sandin and Liljegren, and now we have a veteran winner like Jake Muzzin to help all of these guys develop in addition to the leadership Rielly brings.

Dubas isn't building something to counteract Boston or anyone else. He's building something sustainable others will need to counteract.

Many of us who are worried about not having what it takes this year need to just sit back and enjoy the ride. This team has a very bright future.

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[ShaneFalco]

I think he’ll circle back with the canes in the summer. But we’re going to have to give up something good to get a decent RHD
Playoffs will be telling - we’ll see who shows up. But right now I don’t like how they’re playing and it won’t translate well to the playoffs.
I’m not going to judge him yet it’s too early.
He has his work cut out for him this offseason

 

[WTFMAN99]

I haven't been overly active on this board in recent months so I may be wrong, but from talking to other Leaf fans and observing the media's take, I feel that the vision Dubas has is going over a lot of people's heads.

He acquired Jake Muzzin without giving up any prime assets. This did help improve our weakness, but he did not overpay to acquire the perfect fit, which would have been a player similar to Muzzin but right-handed. There is no question Muzzin will help our playoff chances this year, but it is widely agreed upon that Muzzin will likely replace Gardiner in next year's lineup. Additionally, it was very wise of him to acquire Muzzin a month or so prior to the deadline as I believe this will optimize his overall value and performance for the team in the long run.

The Nylander and Matthews contracts right now can definitely be seen as overpayments, but in a year or two they will be fair value or bargains. Marner is going to also get overpaid because of this. Tavares was fair value considering he's the best UFA center ever. The way these negotiations have resulted is less than ideal but if you're going to overpay someone, you might as well overpay your top players. The saving grace is that we have a Norris contender at a $5M caphit.

As opposed to spending a 2nd rounder on a 4th line center, Dubas traded Lindholm for Nic Petan, who has potential to become a depth scorer for the team in the future and help with the cap crunch. Ennis has been a good reclamation project. We also have veterans like Marleau and Hainsey who have done their job in helping our young players develop and will be off the books soon. Gardiner, who has proven to be a big-game liability will also be off the books. I believe they are holding out hope on Zaitsev returning to form over time and being a solid top 4. We now have Tavares and Muzzin who are both younger and better than Marleau and Hainsey as veterans who will help in terms of leadership but also help get it done on the ice.

I believe that Dubas doesn't think this is the year, although his acquisitions have undoubtedly bettered our chances for this year. This might be the year we get out of the 1st round, and if we do beat Boston who knows whether that momentum can push us further. This is one of the most skilled teams in the league, but there are teams out there that are far more seasoned and have been in contention for years. We might need more experience to be able to make that deep run all of us want, and I think Dubas recognizes that and that's why he didn't go overboard in rounding out the roster with a 4th line center and players like Simmonds/Ferland which many people were calling for. This group is good enough to do better and he's putting it on them to get it done. If they do, it's one step towards winning a cup in one of the following years.

I wanted Dubas to be more aggressive at the deadline, but I am starting to see his vision. He is disciplined in a long-term approach, trying to round out the team when opportunities come forward but not rushing to do anything drastic. I believe this year is seen as somewhat of another trial year by management to determine what further additions we need going forward, and also to decide on a captain, who I believe will be Tavares.

Lou did us a lot of good and it would have been nice to have had him negotiate the contracts for our young stars, but I'm coming to appreciate the long-term vision Dubas has. I would assume we have many more draft picks than many of the top contenders, so we will continue to fill the ranks with fresh players as the cap crunch ensues.

We have been seeing our forwards develop the past few years, but our D is a little behind although Rielly and Dermott have undoubtedly been bright spots. We still have to see what becomes of Sandin and Liljegren, and now we have a veteran winner like Jake Muzzin to help all of these guys develop in addition to the leadership Rielly brings.

Dubas isn't building something to counteract Boston or anyone else. He's building something sustainable others will need to counteract.

Many of us who are worried about not having what it takes this year need to just sit back and enjoy the ride. This team has a very bright future.

I don't think a lot of people are upset at the cap hit for Matthews, they're disappointed that we gave out the 2nd highest AAV in the league and only got 5 years for term.

The "oh 8 years would have cost XXXX" doesn't make sense to me because anything that results in something higher then 12.5M is using stupid math that doesn't add up.

 

[Trapper]

I don't think a lot of people are upset at the cap hit for Matthews, they're disappointed that we gave out the 2nd highest AAV in the league and only got 5 years for term.

The "oh 8 years would have cost XXXX" doesn't make sense to me because anything that results in something higher then 12.5M is using stupid math that doesn't add up.

I think Matthews is much more overpaid than Nylander.

You can argue the 900K difference between Nylander/Ehlers but I don’t see Matthews 3 million more than Draisaitl.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think Matthews is much more overpaid than Nylander.

You can argue the 900K difference between Nylander/Ehlers but I don’t see Matthews 3 million more than Draisaitl.

Matthews is certainly more overpaid due to how short his contract is.

Both could be total steals soon but the trend of playing out the ass for RFA years was helped along by Dubas for sure.

 

[IPS]

I think Matthews is much more overpaid than Nylander.

You can argue the 900K difference between Nylander/Ehlers but I don’t see Matthews 3 million more than Draisaitl.

Luckily Matthews is much, much better than Draisaitl but I understand where you're coming from.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Because the cap has gone up every season since it was introduced, and the cap hit of a contract stays the same every season... yes, long term contracts take up a smaller cap percentage as the seasons go by.

Everybody knows this.

But it does not mean that bad contracts just "don't exist".

A horrible contract that gives a horrible cap hit today becomes "not bad I guess" 5 years from now. Yes, we all know that. And that's what Matthews signed.
As opposed to McDavid... whose contract THIS season already seems pretty fair. Now imagine when it's the precise same cap hit 7 seasons from now.
See... that's the difference between handing out a GOOD contract, compared to a horrible contract. Claiming "it won't be so bad a few years from now" means nothing.

 

[hullsy47]

I don't think a lot of people are upset at the cap hit for Matthews, they're disappointed that we gave out the 2nd highest AAV in the league and only got 5 years for term.

The "oh 8 years would have cost XXXX" doesn't make sense to me because anything that results in something higher then 12.5M is using stupid math that doesn't add up.

 

[hullsy47]

unless connor McDavid wants out of Edmonton in 5 years
he's a life long leaf fan I hear too

 

[4thline]

The "oh 8 years would have cost XXXX" doesn't make sense to me because anything that results in something higher then 12.5M is using stupid math that doesn't add up.

The thing is that using a say 12.45 8 year rate yields a 5 of 11.07.

 

[AreBe]

Too much intellectualism. Too much skill. Too few penalty minutes, Not enough toughness

We are Leafs Nation and we hate analytics, professional scouting, keeping young kids, skating, skills, passing

Team improperly put together, far too much reason and statistical modeling. We need to trade away our youth to acquire aging veterans with a hope that a change in scenery will revitalize them and will repair their torn ACLs and they will be the player they were 5 years ago. Just too much speed, passing and skating, an overabundance

We need to try to score from the penalty box, get some more Side Show Bob type players, as Kyle Dubas bringing together the most impressive skill team in Leafs history is something we here at Leafs Nation think is nothing more than trespassing.

 

[thewave]

I think Matthews is much more overpaid than Nylander.

You can argue the 900K difference between Nylander/Ehlers but I don’t see Matthews 3 million more than Draisaitl.

100% spot on. 3m more than Drai but Drai also gave 8 years as well. It's a bad one for sure. I love how Dubas also slips in things like, it's a fair contract and such from time to time. You know, just trying to impregnate the viewers minds that it's a good deal when it's totally not.

 

[Mess]

I don't think a lot of people are upset at the cap hit for Matthews, they're disappointed that we gave out the 2nd highest AAV in the league and only got 5 years for term.

The "oh 8 years would have cost XXXX" doesn't make sense to me because anything that results in something higher then 12.5M is using stupid math that doesn't add up.

Exactly, if McDavid is the ceiling as 100+ point player and award winner and comparable using 8 X $12.5 mil then Matthews at $11.634 X 8 years makes logical sense..

The minute Dubas left 3 UFA years on the cutting room floor he got taken to the cleaners on that contract, and what makes that worse is now he will be forced to overpay Marner on a shorter term also because he already set a bad precedence with Matthews.

Here is my prediction .. Kucherov the league's leading scorer and also a RW will begin his 8 year $9.5mil contract next year.. Dubas will pay Marner more $$$/AAV and get less years., even considering the first 4 years of Mitch deal will be RFA years while Kuch is all 8 as UFA status.

Dubas vision seems to be getting players signed is his top priority the cost to do so seems to be a secondary concern, because in 5 years if the Leafs haven't won a Cup yet he will be fired and it will be the new GMs headache that all these top players will be UFAs.

 

[Trapper]

Exactly, if McDavid is the ceiling as 100+ point player and award winner and comparable using 8 X $12.5 mil then Matthews at $11.634 X 8 years makes logical sense..

The minute Dubas left 3 UFA years on the cutting room floor he got taken to the cleaners on that contract, and what makes that worse is now he will be forced to overpay Marner on a shorter term also because he already set a bad precedence with Matthews.

Here is my prediction .. Kucherov the league's leading scorer and also a RW will begin his 8 year $9.5mil contract next year.. Dubas will pay Marner more $$$/AAV and get less years., even considering the first 4 years of Mitch deal will be RFA years while Kuch is all 8 as UFA status.

Dubas vision seems to be getting players signed is his top priority the cost to do so seems to be a secondary concern, because in 5 years if the Leafs haven't won a Cup yet he will be fired and it will be the new GMs headache that all these top players will be UFAs.

If Marner only takes 5 years as well we will be in real tough when all 3 contracts expire.
Doubtful all 3 make it past 5 years.

 

[zeke]

the vision:

 

[WTFMAN99]

The thing is that using a say 12.45 8 year rate yields a 5 of 11.07.

Exactly, if McDavid is the ceiling as 100+ point player and award winner and comparable using 8 X $12.5 mil then Matthews at $11.634 X 8 years makes logical sense..

The minute Dubas left 3 UFA years on the cutting room floor he got taken to the cleaners on that contract, and what makes that worse is now he will be forced to overpay Marner on a shorter term also because he already set a bad precedence with Matthews.

Here is my prediction .. Kucherov the league's leading scorer and also a RW will begin his 8 year $9.5mil contract next year.. Dubas will pay Marner more $$$/AAV and get less years., even considering the first 4 years of Mitch deal will be RFA years while Kuch is all 8 as UFA status.

Dubas vision seems to be getting players signed is his top priority the cost to do so seems to be a secondary concern, because in 5 years if the Leafs haven't won a Cup yet he will be fired and it will be the new GMs headache that all these top players will be UFAs.

I am hoping Dubas loses the show down with Babcock this off-season. I also imagine the year following Babcock might be out anyway if the team doesn't improve in carrying the play or play defense OR having success in the playoffs.

 

[Mess]

If Marner only takes 5 years as well we will be in real tough when all 3 contracts expire.
Doubtful all 3 make it past 5 years.

Dubas will likely try for 6 years with Marner then Matthews and Nylander hit UFA status in 5 years and Marner and Tavares his UFA status in 6 years.

That makes this year and the next 5 essentially this window and cycle for the Leafs to try and win Cup(s).

 

[PromisedLand]

dave bolland was clearly a scrub on hawks' multiple cup runs

or shaw for that matter...



dustin brown clearly sucked ass with the Kings

and the HBK like for the pens clearly was a seive because kessel didn't play with another elite talent

and vgk full of scrubs didn't do anything in their first season ever.... were sitting last in teh standings filled with "scrubs"

 

[Mess]

I am hoping Dubas loses the show down with Babcock this off-season. I also imagine the year following Babcock might be out anyway if the team doesn't improve in carrying the play or play defense OR having success in the playoffs.

Dubas on the surface looking in seems to be sabotaging Babcock his own coach.

Babcock constantly comments on needing size and wanting to play a heavier game, with an ability to be stronger on the puck, and pleads for a RHD top 4 guy to help the defense out on the right side.

Dubas seems to ignore all that and best he comes up with is 5-9 Nic Petan to sit in the pressbox, intentionally doing the exact opposite to Babs as if there is already some power struggle going on. .

If the Leafs lose Babcock will take the blame but Dubas set the stage if they get into a physical series with the Bruins and bow out early again. Dubas hands Babcock a knife and sends him into a gun fight and then if he doesn't win will attempt to make him the fall guy. Then Dubas will promote his boy Keefe from the Marlies as his next coach, should Babcock be removed,

Once all the big contracts kick in Leafs will have 3 of the highest AAV players in the league including #2 and #3 AAV highest, that will severely hurt Leafs depth and all the money on expensive forwards the DCore personnel will get even weaker making it more difficult for Leafs to win going forward.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

Dubas on the surface looking in seems to be sabotaging Babcock his own coach.

Babcock constantly comments on needing size and wanting to play a heavier game, with an ability to be stronger on the puck, and pleads for a RHD top 4 guy to help the defense out on the right side.

Dubas seems to ignore all that and best he comes up with is 5-9 Nic Petan to sit in the pressbox, intentionally doing the exact opposite to Babs as if their is already some power struggle going on. .

If the Leafs lose Babcock will take the blame but Dubas set the stage if they get into a physical series with the Bruins and bow out early again. Dubas hands Babcock a knife and sends him into a gun fight and then if he doesn't win will attempt to make him the fall guy.

Once all the big contracts kick in Leafs will have 3 of the highest AAV players in the league including #2 and #3 AAV highest, that will severely hurt Leafs depth and all the money on expensive forwards the DCore personnel will get even weaker making it more difficult for Leafs to win going forward.

Then I say....GREAT JOB DUBAS!

 

[AllDay28]

preach

 

[Menzinger]

Dubas on the surface looking in seems to be sabotaging Babcock his own coach.

Babcock constantly comments on needing size and wanting to play a heavier game, with an ability to be stronger on the puck, and pleads for a RHD top 4 guy to help the defense out on the right side.

Dubas seems to ignore all that and best he comes up with is 5-9 Nic Petan to sit in the pressbox, intentionally doing the exact opposite to Babs as if their is already some power struggle going on. .

If the Leafs lose Babcock will take the blame but Dubas set the stage if they get into a physical series with the Bruins and bow out early again. Dubas hands Babcock a knife and sends him into a gun fight and then if he doesn't win will attempt to make him the fall guy.

Once all the big contracts kick in Leafs will have 3 of the highest AAV players in the league including #2 and #3 AAV highest, that will severely hurt Leafs depth and all the money on expensive forwards the DCore personnel will get even weaker making it more difficult for Leafs to win going forward.

Forgotting that Muzzin exists?

Dubas biggest trade as GM was literally for a player to improve the team’s defenseive core and a guy who also happens has size and grit .

 

[Mickey Marner]

He inherited a strong team and his only significant moves have been adding the best forward and second best defenseman moved since July 1st 2018 until now. There was a 0% chance of the best defenseman coming here, so he added to two biggest pieces of 2018/19 available to him.

I don't really have a problem with the the Tavares, Matthews, Nylander and soon to be Marner contracts. Sure, I'd be happy if they all made one million less, but distributing the majority of your cap space into great players is hardly worth the vitriol it gets around here. Nor will their be any league-wide cap restructuring based on these contracts like the proles believe. As if I should care anyways.

Insofar, none of this has been brain surgery. The real test will be to continuously surround the established core with cheap foot-soldiers. Why people were clamouring to pay premium for deadline acquisitions like Simmonds and Gudas is beyond me. That's textbook stupidity. The goal should be to maximize the term of which you can compete for the cup by having a steady stream of Johnssons, Kapanens, Hymans, Browns, Moores etc. Not to trade the next one (draft pick) for 2-3 months of Wayne Simmonds.

 

[Menzinger]

Imo one of the biggest myth on these boards is equating the quality of a team’s depth with salary.

The worst contracts on the team - Zaitsev, Marleau, Brown - are all depth players.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Dubas on the surface looking in seems to be sabotaging Babcock his own coach.

Babcock constantly comments on needing size and wanting to play a heavier game, with an ability to be stronger on the puck, and pleads for a RHD top 4 guy to help the defense out on the right side.

Dubas seems to ignore all that and best he comes up with is 5-9 Nic Petan to sit in the pressbox, intentionally doing the exact opposite to Babs as if there is already some power struggle going on. .

If the Leafs lose Babcock will take the blame but Dubas set the stage if they get into a physical series with the Bruins and bow out early again. Dubas hands Babcock a knife and sends him into a gun fight and then if he doesn't win will attempt to make him the fall guy. Then Dubas will promote his boy Keefe from the Marlies as his next coach, should Babcock be removed,

Once all the big contracts kick in Leafs will have 3 of the highest AAV players in the league including #2 and #3 AAV highest, that will severely hurt Leafs depth and all the money on expensive forwards the DCore personnel will get even weaker making it more difficult for Leafs to win going forward.

Lou wasn't perfect, consecutive 2nd round picks for Boyle and Plekanec and the Zaitsev contract was not good. That being said, it was extremely dangerous to hand over this job to a rookie GM. We had 3 massive contracts to negotiate and Dubas has zero experience in negotiating contracts of this magnitude.

I like Muzzin as a player, I questioned the fit as bringing in another LHD on team that is stacked at the NHL and prospect level. The obvious need was at RD.

We'll see where this goes. If Dubas goes 0-3 on these contract negotiations, it is gonna suck.