OT: The Thread About Nothing CCX: Pet Emporium

[Jack Be Quick]

they don't know whether i have coronavirus or not though - what i'm getting at is that there's so much unreported, that a stating a 3% mortality rate just seems so high

i still don't see how this is any different from any bug that goes around, other than it's a trackable strain that has stats on it

Except they all have stats on them. And these are more dire.

That 3% does seem high. You know why? Because that's what we can gauge it is right now. If anything the cases are being over reported compared to other illnesses due to the fear.

 

[OmNomNom]

Except they all have stats on them. And these are more dire.

That 3% does seem high. You know why? Because that's what we can gauge it is right now. If anything the cases are being over reported compared to other illnesses due to the fear.

they literally cannot have stats on things that are unreported

what if i had coronavirus and got over it as if it was just a regular cold/flu? they don't know i had it, and neither did i

it's dire for those with preexisting conditions, as well as children, the elderly, and pregnant women, but i'd be worried for those people if they had the symptoms that came with coronavirus, even if it didn't come from this specific bug.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Here's an example of what I'd call sheer panic selling.

Am I to believe people are NEVER going to go back to a theme park ever again in their life? Six Flags' value literally got cut in half.

I just tossed $5k at it at $21 an hour ago. It'll probably go down to $15 upon more panic and I should have waited, but I dont care. I fully expect this to be back to at least $30 in a year or 1.5 years for a 50% return.

 

[NJDevs26]

Without touching the third rail (now seems a good time to remind people NO POLITICS here), our testing for the virus is lagging - for all we know there could be significantly more cases in the US than are currently being reported. Plus people get scared when there's anything new and we don't completely know who's at risk and how high the risk is, it's no longer a media-driven overreaction since as was pointed out health organizations all over the world are the ones sounding the alarms.

Does that mean I'm going into a bubble and refusing to shake hands or touch anyone, no but I'm not in a high risk area (yet). Tonight might be different, since I'm actually bothering to go to the game but until the powers that be start canceling stuff - and there's already been plenty of that in businesses and air travel - you gotta live your live and just take precautions the way you do with other viruses.

 

[OmNomNom]

if new yorkers (residents and commuters) aren't falling grossly ill within the next 3 weeks, then i will double down on the virus being largely innocuous. i'm trying to avoid touching my face, but i'm willing to still hold onto a subway rail to support myself and go about without a mask, as are a large majority of people - the # of facemasks i've seen pretty small

so with the density of the city, if there isn't a significant change to all of our health, then things should be good. and i'd definitely like to be right, as would most of us

i wouldn't be surprised if a few more detected cases, though, pop up (asymptomatic or not), and everyone is forced to WFH for the next month or so

 

[BenedictGomez]

they don't know whether i have coronavirus or not though - what i'm getting at is that there's so much unreported, that a stating a 3% mortality rate just seems so high

So about that 3.4% death rate you keep hearing & for which people are taking "Super Cereal" because it came directly from the World Health Organization (WHO).

WHO reported a number based on CONFIRMED cases, which wildly overestimates the death rate because the denominator in the calculation is massively under-counted due to people with coronavirus with no symptoms or mild to medium symptoms who may not even seek treatment.

This was IMO absolutely irresponsible on WHO's part without clarifying that for people. They're scaring the **** out of people, and I have to believe it's intentional & they're attempting to scare the **** out of people into compliance, because these are medical experts who obviously know what's up.

 

[OmNomNom]

So about that 3.4% death rate you keep hearing & for which people are taking "Super Cerial" because it came directly from the World Health Organization (WHO).

WHO reported a number based on CONFIRMED cases, which wildly overestimates the death rate because the denominator in the calculation is massively under-counted due to people with coronavirus with no symptoms or mild to medium symptoms who may not even seek treatment.

This was IMO absolutely irresponsible on WHO's part without clarifying that for people. They're scaring the **** out of people, and I have to believe it's intentional & they're attempting to scare the **** out of people into compliance, because these are medical experts who obviously know what's up.

is it fully WHOs fault, or is it the media that distributes the information? there's always fine print in reports, and for the average joe who's prepping a news report, idk if they're going to include all the context. if WHO is including that on their reports, which should be made available online, then i'd absolve them

 

[BenedictGomez]

Oh, once we start testing (which has already begun) the cases in the US area going to skyrocket from what they are now. It's inevitable. If the market goes gown another 20% or 30% when that happens then I'll really toss bags of cash at the NYSE & NASDAQ.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

they literally cannot have stats on things that are unreported

what if i had coronavirus and got over it as if it was just a regular cold/flu? they don't know i had it, and neither did i

it's dire for those with preexisting conditions, as well as children, the elderly, and pregnant women, but i'd be worried for those people if they had the symptoms that came with coronavirus, even if it didn't come from this specific bug.

So all stats on all illnesses are bunk because of unreported cases?

I have no idea what you're trying to say here.

 

[OmNomNom]

So all stats on all illnesses are bunk because of unreported cases?

I have no idea what you're trying to say here.

i'm saying the #s should always be taken with a grain of salt, and there should be an asterisk, like what @BenedictGomez said

like, my statement of it being no different from the regular flu isn't an inaccurate statement -- this COULD just end up being on the level of a regular flu, in terms of mortality rates. but reporting mortality rates at all, using a typical flu as a point of reference, and showing (strictly on #s) that it's 30x more deadly than the flu is really alarmist

 

[Devils731]

Oh, once we start testing (which has already begun) the cases in the US area going to skyrocket from what they are now. It's inevitable. If the market goes gown another 20% or 30% when that happens then I'll really toss bags of cash at the NYSE & NASDAQ.

My dry powder is ready. I put some in already but I’ll be whole hog if the market gets crushed. I used December 2022 SPY calls to leverage my first dip last Friday but I’ll be a little more conservative if I toss a big percentage in.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Fine guys, let's say the mortality rate for this thing is actually 1.7% instead of 3.4%. But the argument you're presenting is that this is due to unreported cases.

Does it not stand to reason then that if influenza is reportedly fatal in <0.1% of cases that that number should be closer to <0.05%?

That is a disturbingly significant difference no matter how you wish to slice it.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Without touching the third rail (now seems a good time to remind people NO POLITICS here)

That's the thing though.

This may be the only issue I've seen in the last 3+ years that both parties top to bottom have not hesitated to recognize and move together on.

That alone makes it frightening to me.

 

[Devils731]

Fine guys, let's say the mortality rate for this thing is actually 1.7% instead of 3.4%. But the argument you're presenting is that this is due to unreported cases.

Does it not stand to reason then that if influenza is reportedly fatal in <0.1% of cases that that number should be closer to <0.05%?

That is a disturbingly significant difference no matter how you wish to slice it.

Does the flu use confirmed cases or estimated number of cases to calculate mortality rate? I believe they use estimated for cases and deaths.

 

[OmNomNom]

Fine guys, let's say the mortality rate for this thing is actually 1.7% instead of 3.4%. But the argument you're presenting is that this is due to unreported cases.

Does it not stand to reason then that if influenza is reportedly fatal in <0.1% of cases that that number should be closer to <0.05%?

That is a disturbingly significant difference no matter how you wish to slice it.

this still assumes that the WHO knows when every single person in the world has influenza and who dies of it or not. and the "stats" on the flu are a lot larger and cover more years than coronavirus.

also, lets say WHO uses people who check into the hospital or go to their doctor for #s on who has the flu. my theory is that right now, a lot of people are PROBABLY not going to go to the doctor if they have symptoms of anything, since everyone likes to assume they don't have any issues. hell, if i started feeling sick, i'm not gonna run to the doctor or my company (unless it's really bad) to report it - why would i want to risk shutting me, my family, and my coworkers into isolation?

 

[BenedictGomez]

Without touching the third rail (now seems a good time to remind people NO POLITICS here), our testing for the virus is lagging

Without touching the third rail ( NO POLITICS here), our testing for the virus is lagging in no small part due to excessive government regulation (which was just changed last week). Not that you'll ever hear or read that part in the news for some really odd reason.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Issues New Policy to Help Expedite Availability of Diagnostics

 

[Jack Be Quick]

i'm saying the #s should always be taken with a grain of salt, and there should be an asterisk, like what @BenedictGomez said

like, my statement of it being no different from the regular flu isn't an inaccurate statement

It's a wildly inaccurate statement given all of the currently available data.

But I suppose there's no purpose in belaboring the point. You've made up your mind that the very people whose livelihoods rely on things such as this on are obfuscating the numbers.

But BG has a feeling about the WHO, so there's always that.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I'm not an Elon Musk fan, but he's on-board.

 

[OmNomNom]

It's a wildly inaccurate statement given all of the currently available data.

But I suppose there's no purpose in belaboring the point. You've made up your mind that the very people whose livelihoods rely on things such as this on are obfuscating the numbers.

But BG has a feeling about the WHO, so there's always that.

i won't budge on the panic re: death, but i do agree with this article from Medium

The main risk of the coronavirus outbreak isn’t that you’re going to get sick and die, it’s that so many people are going to get sick so quickly that our healthcare services and infrastructure are going to be completely overwhelmed.

you're right, we prob won't agree about the death #s fear (time will tell), but we can prob agree with the above

 

[Jack Be Quick]

this still assumes that the WHO knows when every single person in the world has influenza and who dies of it or not. and the "stats" on the flu are a lot larger and cover more years than coronavirus.

also, lets say WHO uses people who check into the hospital or go to their doctor for #s on who has the flu. my theory is that right now, a lot of people are PROBABLY not going to go to the doctor if they have symptoms of anything, since everyone likes to assume they don't have any issues. hell, if i started feeling sick, i'm not gonna run to the doctor or my company (unless it's really bad) to report it - why would i want to risk shutting me, my family, and my coworkers into isolation?

So stats and therefore these professionals and organizations in general are pointless.

Gotcha.

You know, there's a country out there, one who just so happens to be a major world player, and also the one where this disease seems to have originated. They also ignored or repressed stats and data. And here we are.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

i won't budge on the panic re: death, but i do agree with this article from Medium


you're right, we prob won't agree about the death #s fear (time will tell), but we can prob agree with the above

Cheers.

 

[Satans Hockey]

Here's an example of what I'd call sheer panic selling.

Am I to believe people are NEVER going to go back to a theme park ever again in their life? Six Flags' value literally got cut in half.

I just tossed $5k at it at $21 an hour ago. It'll probably go down to $15 upon more panic and I should have waited, but I dont care. I fully expect this to be back to at least $30 in a year or 1.5 years for a 50% return.

Actually I believe that has nothing really to do with the coronavirus and just sorta happens to really be the same time period. Six Flags bought a ton of new properties last year. They are also a company that has gone into bankruptcy in the past after acquiring a bunch of new parks which they then had to sell off a bunch of them. Cedar Fair their largest competitor (dorney park, cedar point etc etc) also did way better than them last year and at one point were in talks to purchasing six flags. They also just had their China deals fall through which would have brought them in a ton of money.

I'm not saying the stock won't bounce back at some point or that the coronavirus might have had a small effect on it but they have had a lot of issues going on that would cause their stock to go down and for people not to believe in them as a company...

This is why Six Flags’ stock is having its worst day ever

Six Flags stock hammered after surprise loss, downbeat guidance and dividend cut

 

[OmNomNom]

So stats and therefore these professionals and organizations in general are pointless.

Gotcha.

You know, there's a country out there, one who just so happens to be a major world player, and also the one where this disease seems to have originated. They also ignored or repressed stats and data. And here we are.

just an fyi (and not saying you are) but my arguments against you are not personal, but your tone makes me feel like poop. and don't get me wrong! stats are useful. but they're never 100%. correlation does not always mean causation. ESPECIALLY with something that's been tracked for only 2 months

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Does the flu use confirmed cases or estimated number of cases to calculate mortality rate? I believe they use estimated for cases and deaths.

It would strike me as odd if anyone used a different methodology to study comparable viruses.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

just an fyi (and not saying you are) but my arguments against you are not personal, but your tone makes me feel like poop. and don't get me wrong! stats are useful.

My bad.

It's certainly not personal.