OT: The Thread About Nothing CCX: Pet Emporium

[Satans Hockey]

So then, who is going to skip out on attending Friday's game? I know I am, but only because my interest level is just above zero.

I used a buyback but that's because I planned to do so all along. I wouldn't mind them doing closed door games simply because it means I'd get more money back for the remainder of the season lol

I'll be there for the next 2 home games unless I can sell them(simply because I don't care about going anymore this season) but I can't say I'm concerned. I feel like there's a greater chance of me dying on the way to and from the games with how many horrendous drivers there are nowadays.

 

[Blackjack]

This is exactly where I can understand the concern. It does seem to spread fast. But, given the death rate and symptoms, unless you are very old, you should have the same level of concern about what happens after you get it as you do the flu.

I sure wish we would sensationalize the absurdity of antivaxers and the possibility of really scary things like small pox coming back as much as we do things like West Nile, the Bird Flu and Covid 19...

If it does go full zombie apocalypse, maybe one small good thing that can come of it is to wreck the anti vax movement. I have to think that seeing hastily constructed tents full of the infirm for a few months will make the vaccine one hot item when it comes out.

 

[None Shall Pass]

I think the concern is that, even with the low mortality rate, the sheer numbers of people who may get this means a large number of critical cases which may overwhelm the hospitals.

That's my big worry. We don't have the infrastructure to handle a large amount of people who need medical help, whether they're going to die or not.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

I don't know if I'm just too laid back and passive, but the Coronavirus doesn't worry me one bit. Wash your hands, use sanitizer, cover your mouth for coughs and sneezes, etc. Way more people die from the flu than this. It's common sense. Avoid doctors and hospitals unless it's absolutely necessary. I don't know, I am just not one to get caught up in this stuff.

The who is now begging world leaders to take this more seriously, Congress has approved and the president signed off on $8.3 billion in additional spending to combat it, all 33 cases in NY have been tied to 1 dude, markets are tanking, universities are closing, quarantines are occuring nationwide, and many companies are mandating employees work from home.

Pretending this is comparable to influenza is not common sense, it's fallacy.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I think the concern is that, even with the low mortality rate, the sheer numbers of people who may get this means a large number of critical cases which may overwhelm the hospitals.

That's my big worry. We don't have the infrastructure to handle a large amount of people who need medical help, whether they're going to die or not.

I've only been reading about this hospital & ICU overload idea the last few days, so I don't know if some outlet put out an article or what, because it seems to all-of-a-sudden be a popular topic, but I dont think this will happen, again using the South Korean data. Because the "serious cases" seem to be mostly only people > 70 years old (with some > 60 years old).

If you look at census data, 16.2% of our population is >=62. If you figure 330M Americans, that's about 53.5M Americans >=62. Yes, a big number, but only a small percentage of that population will get COVID19. Let's say 1% of our population >=62 gets the virus (and that may be WAY too high), that math = 535k people spread over 50 states spread over a few months = maybe 5k cases per state per month. And remember, NOT ALL (not even close) of these cases even in the elderly population will be dire. I know I may sound too optimistic or too cavalier about this, but as serious as this all is, I mathematically cannot arrive at this not being a huge overreaction.

EDIT: Wanted to see what portion of elderly Koreans currently have COVID19, it's currently 1 in 6,247 people age 65 & older. So yeah, my 1% estimate may just be a weeeeeeeeeeeee bit too high!

 

[Billdo]

The who is now begging world leaders to take this more seriously, Congress has approved and the president signed off on $8.3 billion in additional spending to combat it, all 33 cases in NY have been tied to 1 dude, markets are tanking, universities are closing, quarantines are occuring nationwide, and many companies are mandating employees work from home.

Pretending this is comparable to influenza is not common sense, it's fallacy.

Wasn't SARS, Bird Flu, Zikka, etc all supposed to be this catastrophic thing as well? And I'm saying with no snark or anything, I'm genuinely asking.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Wasn't SARS, Bird Flu, Zikka, etc all supposed to be this catastrophic thing as well? And I'm saying with no snark or anything, I'm genuinely asking.

Sars had ~8k cases in about 2 years and was mostly isolated to China and SE Asia.

Bird flu is predominantly transmitted from birds to humans. The numbers of infected and those who perished from it since 1997 are pretty much nil. This is part of the reason so many people are not taking Corona seriously, because the media was certainly sensationalistic over that. But it was mostly a disruption in poultry production issue.

Zika is extremely rarely fatal and not transmitted human to human outside of the ways most std's are.

Long story short, no, this is unfortunately not a comparable scenario.

 

[Billdo]

Sars had ~8k cases in about 2 years and was mostly isolated to China and SE Asia.

Bird flu is predominantly transmitted from birds to humans. The numbers of infected and those who perished from it since 1997 are pretty much nil. This is part of the reason so many people are not taking Corona seriously, because the media was certainly sensationalistic over that. But it was mostly a disruption in poultry production issue.

Zika is extremely rarely fatal and not transmitted human to human outside of the ways most std's are.

Long story short, no, this is unfortunately not a comparable scenario.

Are you, as what I'm assuming to be an American, genuinely concerned for your health or your families health moreso than the flu though?

 

[OmNomNom]

isn't the 3% mortality rate a bit dramatic? a lot of people are getting sick every day and getting over it as if it was just another cold/flu - this isn't something that NEEDS a vaccine. you can't have an accurate statistic if not everyone is reporting it.

it's kind of like the flu (which has a "1%" mortality rate) - not everyone reports it. if you were to track a certain strain of the flu in a given year and give it a name, would it be spreading as much as coronavirus is?

granted, if you get the serious symptoms (breathing like you're underwater/pneumonia), you should probably see a doctor, but you should see a doctor with those symptoms anyway.

i think a lot of this is general panic

 

[OmNomNom]

Shortage of face masks? No problem.

View attachment 330961 View attachment 330963

looks like bane

 

[None Shall Pass]

If you look at census data, 16.2% of our population is >=62. If you figure 330M Americans, that's about 53.5M Americans >=62. Yes, a big number, but only a small percentage of that population will get COVID19. Let's say 1% of our population >=62 gets the virus (and that may be WAY too high), that math = 535k people spread over 50 states spread over a few months = maybe 5k cases per state per month. And remember, NOT ALL (not even close) of these cases even in the elderly population will be dire. I know I may sound too optimistic or too cavalier about this, but as serious as this all is, I mathematically cannot arrive at this not being a huge overreaction.

The problem with this is that you're assuming all the >=62 population is spread geographically evenly. It isn't.

So there's 16% of our population that is >=62. I live in NYC, a population of roughly 8 million. That's 1.28 million >=62 folks in 10 miles. If half a percent (0.5%) get ill that's...

64,000 people. That's a really big number!!!!!

That's also not counting people who are younger than 62 but are immunocompromised. It's also not counting the people who commute in and out of NYC daily.

There will be huge issues if that happens. A quick Google search told me that NYC has about 27,000 hospital beds.

The guy from Grand Central earlier this week is responsible for 17 cases by himself: Coronavirus in New York: One case spiraled into a community quarantine. Here's what's next

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Are you, as what I'm assuming to be an American, genuinely concerned for your health or your families health moreso than the flu though?

Mine? No. Never.

Others? Absolutely.

My parents are in their sixties, my girl's in their seventies, and my grandmother in her eighties where a strong gust of wind could take her out at this point.

 

[billingtons ghost]

isn't the 3% mortality rate a bit dramatic? a lot of people are getting sick every day and getting over it as if it was just another cold/flu - this isn't something that NEEDS a vaccine. you can't have an accurate statistic if not everyone is reporting it.

it's kind of like the flu (which has a "1%" mortality rate) - not everyone reports it. if you were to track a certain strain of the flu in a given year and give it a name, would it be spreading as much as coronavirus is?

granted, if you get the serious symptoms (breathing like you're underwater/pneumonia), you should probably see a doctor, but you should see a doctor with those symptoms anyway.

i think a lot of this is general panic

I agree with this - I think it's tough to gauge the mortality rate because the symptoms are so mild for a vast majority of the population. The reality is that we could all be infected already, but only 2% of the folks seek medical care. If 50% of those die, we'd all freak out with the news reports.

I can't imagine NOT vaccinating your kids for something. That said, viruses mutate so fast and have so many different strains, that it's just a crapshoot. I think the flu shot is 'getting better' - but the 15% success rate really sucked for a while there - and that # is also dicey because my first paragraph above.

The anti-vaxxers seem like nutjobs ...and yet 'my body my choice' seems directly at odds with forcing other people to have the government stick a needle in your arm. Combine that with the fact we have a death penalty in this country and it is tough to come up with a coherent stance that actually makes sense in all cases. Lots of gray areas.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

isn't the 3% mortality rate a bit dramatic? a lot of people are getting sick every day and getting over it as if it was just another cold/flu - this isn't something that NEEDS a vaccine. you can't have an accurate statistic if not everyone is reporting it.

it's kind of like the flu (which has a "1%" mortality rate) - not everyone reports it. if you were to track a certain strain of the flu in a given year and give it a name, would it be spreading as much as coronavirus is?

granted, if you get the serious symptoms (breathing like you're underwater/pneumonia), you should probably see a doctor, but you should see a doctor with those symptoms anyway.

i think a lot of this is general panic

The flu has <0.1% rate.

C'mon guys, all of this information is readily available.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

I agree with this - I think it's tough to gauge the mortality rate because the symptoms are so mild for a vast majority of the population. The reality is that we could all be infected already, but only 2% of the folks seek medical care. If 50% of those die, we'd all freak out with the news reports.

I can't imagine NOT vaccinating your kids for something. That said, viruses mutate so fast and have so many different strains, that it's just a crapshoot. I think the flu shot is 'getting better' - but the 15% success rate really sucked for a while there - and that # is also dicey because my first paragraph above.

The anti-vaxxers seem like nutjobs ...and yet 'my body my choice' seems directly at odds with forcing other people to have the government stick a needle in your arm. Combine that with the fact we have a death penalty in this country and it is tough to come up with a coherent stance that actually makes sense in all cases. Lots of gray areas.

I can and do easily and logically stand with or against all the positions you proposed. But I believe these matters are not allowed to be discussed in depth around these parts.

But yeah, vaccinate your kid or quarantine them. It's pretty simple.

 

[OmNomNom]

The flu has <0.1% rate.

C'mon guys, all of this information is readily available.

maybe i had misheard 1% instead of 0.1%

but that still doesn't address my larger point of samples sizes and a media that loves to hype things up, since it gets them ratings. we as humans LOVE dramatic shit bc it'd be boring without it

what's the 3% sample size? there are so many unknowns, even in china

this is like the "38%" survey that came out about people who were phone interviewed about how the virus affected their perception of corona beer



i'm also on the side that antivaxxers are nuts fyi

 

[Jack Be Quick]

maybe i had misheard 1% instead of 0.1%

but that still doesn't address my larger point of samples sizes and a media that loves to hype things up, since it gets them ratings. we as humans LOVE dramatic shit bc it'd be boring without it

what's the 3% sample size? there are so many unknowns, even in china

this is like the "38%" survey that came out about people who were phone interviewed about how the virus affected their perception of corona beer



i'm also on the side that antivaxxers are nuts fyi

My man, this isn't the media.

This is the WHO, the CDC, etc etc. They have mechanisms in place to gauge for the discrepancies you're concerned about.

When a nation such as China who will guard their image at all costs is sounding the alarm bells, that's much of what I need to know.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Are you, as what I'm assuming to be an American, genuinely concerned for your health or your families health moreso than the flu though?

No. I mean, dont get me wrong, I dont want it. I'm not going to start licking handrails, but.....

My wife & I are both healthy (i.e. no comorbidities) and in the age-range for which death is about the same as flu.

We have an infant daughter though, so we should be terrified for her, right? Wrong. For reasons that doctors currently do not understand, COVID19 isn't fatal to children. There are a few theories as to why, but as of now, they're just theories.

 

[BenedictGomez]

So there's 16% of our population that is >=62. I live in NYC, a population of roughly 8 million. That's 1.28 million >=62 folks in 10 miles. If half a percent (0.5%) get ill that's... 64,000 people. That's a really big number!!!!!

So, using real numbers (2016 data) there are 1,155,075 people in NYC >= 65.

Keep in mind, from my post above only ONE in 6,247 people in South Korea age 65 & older currently have the virus (South Korean CDC data below), but the death rate in this age group is high.

Now granted, this number will increase as Korea's testing a ton of people (best on planet in testing) and their cases are increasing about 9% per day. But still, 1 in 6,250 is crazy low. Even if we assume in America it gets worse for some reason & it's 1 in 2000 elderly, that's only ~600 "elderly" cases in NYC, which is very manageable. And we are not proximal to China, so I cant imagine we end up worse off than Korea.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

No. I mean, dont get me wrong, I dont want it. I'm not going to start licking handrails, but.....

My wife & I are both healthy (i.e. no comorbidities) and in the age-range for which death is about the same as flu.

We have an infant daughter though, so we should be terrified for her, right? Wrong. For reasons that doctors currently do not understand, COVID19 isn't fatal to children. There are a few theories as to why, but as of now, they're just theories.

You don't have parents or concern for your fellow countrymen who happen to be 60+?

I know that's not what you meant, but that's what it is.

 

[Billdo]

You don't have parents or concern for your fellow countrymen who happen to be 60+?

I know that's not what you meant, but that's what it is.

Honestly? Not any more than pneumonia or the flu.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

So, using real numbers (2016 data) there are 1,155,075 people in NYC >= 65.

Keep in mind, from my post above only ONE in 6,247 people in South Korea age 65 & older currently have the virus (South Korean CDC data below), but the death rate in this age group is high.

Now granted, this number will increase as Korea's testing a ton of people (best on planet in testing) and their cases are increasing about 9% per day. But still, 1 in 6,250 is crazy low. Even if we assume in America it gets worse for some reason & it's 1 in 2000 elderly, that's only ~600 "elderly" cases in NYC, which is very manageable.

If Korea is that good at testing then it stands to reason they're just as good at isolating.

 

[OmNomNom]

My man, this isn't the media.

This is the WHO, the CDC, etc etc. They have mechanisms in place to gauge for the discrepancies you're concerned about.

When a nation such as China who will guard their image at all costs is sounding the alarm bells, that's much of what I need to know.

they don't know whether i have coronavirus or not though - what i'm getting at is that there's so much unreported, that a stating a 3% mortality rate just seems so high

i still don't see how this is any different from any bug that goes around, other than it's a trackable strain that has stats on it

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Honestly? Not any more than pneumonia or the flu.

Then why ask me the question?

 

[Devils731]

I worry for my parents and my wife who has severe asthma. I’m only concerned about passing it onto others if I catch it, I know the personal risk to myself is low.

Since the incubation rate is so long and it seems fairly easy to transmit I don’t think you can prevent catching it long term unless you’re going to live in a bubble for months.