The Ryan O’Reilly Discussion Quarantine Zone [All ROR Posts Here] (Mod Notes OP)

[OkimLom]

I disagree. There were public quotes about a roster shakeup, and ROR was at the top of the list. Additionally, most of the well known sources were reporting ROR's name (BMac, Dreger, etc.). My point is, it was well known that the Sabres were open for business and that ROR was a candidate. When someone advertises that a premiere talent is available, that should theoretically open up the market for a competitive bidding situation.

Lastly, Botts had direct working experiences with multiple gms around the league - Rutherford, Shero, Francis, Fletcher, as well as indirect experience with several others. So communications/relationships shouldn't have been a roadblock either.

The most likely answer here is that ROR just isn't as coveted around the league as many around here would believe, otherwise the market would have resulted in a better deal. The real question that no one has asked through a thousand of these ****ing threads is; why wasn't he valued higher by multiple teams (regardless of the timeline)?

Not everybody could afford his contract, not everybody was WILLING to give up pieces necessary for ROR (a 2nd line center) because of internal cap/financial issues (like teams balking at the bonus money he was owed). Other teams didn't have a NEED for him that would lead them to give up premiere pieces (some teams have the role he provides already covered). And then there's teams GM's that don't think he's good enough) There are many reasons why teams weren't in on ROR besides talent evaluation reasons. And Yes, the timeline could play into it, so don't say regardless of timeline).

Botts wanted to get rid of him. Nothing was going to stop him. The fact he took the STL package when he still had term on the contract to get a better package, tells me ROR was as good as gone without any considerable effort to try and rectify an issue on the team. It's the same mindset you see when you see posters say "Well, if he doesn't want to be here, then get rid of him", the only bad part is Botts has the power to do so. The only issue with that thinking, is that players become friends when together, they may treat it like a business, as the saying goes, but they see how management treats the players, , especially players that were important to them winning, word gets around pretty quickly. ROR is a well respected guy. We already had a management team that didn't treat players well, and we spent decades trying to fix/change that.

 

[sabrebuild]

Valid, but this analysis overlooks the possibility that the team was operating inefficiently before and should have done something much sooner. I don't think that's an unlikely scenario, but that's my own bias against this management.

Firstly, excellent shift to a new angle on this overall topic.

Second, do you mean inefficiency by Murray or Botts or both?

If by Murray, sure totally possible, particularly due to it being his trade so perhaps they pushed forward to save face.

If you mean Botts, well then that is a scary thought. Then we basically hired a rookie gm who overturned half the roster with his guys, finished dead last, and couldn’t identify a locker room problem until the season was over and the player mouthed off. Despite the coaching playing him like the most trusted guy on the team.

Which leads me to my most likely scenario based on the facts. Pegula is annoyed the team had yet to approve and wanted stuff to happen and the best target was the guy who mouthed off even tho he gets paid the most on the team at the time.

Which might be scarier. An owner who bounces between his toys and knocks over the castle when he has the time.

The fact that Botts and Housley played O’Reilly like he did, makes me think option 3 is what happened here.

 

[Panthaz89]

Sure, but that can lead to the similar extreme of a Darcy-type stakeout. You can argue (successfully!) that it was rushed, but there's no guarantee that anything better was coming down the line.

I'm sure someone would of something offered something better especially with 5 years on the contract.

 

[Tage2Tuch]

Fans only see guys produce and don’t realize the locker room chemistry is as important now as on ice chemistry.

Who’s to say the guy isn’t good in the locker room, the track record speaks for itself with teams he leaves even improving when he does although given the kind of player he is it seems far fetched to think he could be that big of a factor. It’s a bit of coincidence, witj other multiple host of other factors and maybe a bit him too.

If you’ve never played hockey at a junior level and disagree with me I’m sorry but even at the junior level this happens. That’s why there is this whole “he’s a locker room cancer” thing to begin with. I’m not calling him one persay I’m just saying toxis attitudes are toxic for a reason. It’s a scientific fact that negativity in humans is contagious and spreads like a virus, especially when with those attitudes on a dail basis like nhlers are, new habits form, new pathways are created in your brain (even if your an adult) I’m not putting this all on one guy. That would be way too
Unfair not am I suggesting this is a major factor, I’m just tying to explain the science and metrics behind one guy being part of the problem, not the whole provlem, but part. We will never know how big but we do know a few things. We know that everyone in the sabres room before the season samtarted said they felt negativity was lifted and they had a new attitude (I thought at the time they were just saying that) and even though there’s been struggles recently they were still night and day better then last year so apparently it’s true. We’ve also seen a team that was good and supposed to rise shrug their shoulders and go “I don’t know” and outside that we saw his atttitide post game and come out with rather concerning public Statements. I’ve always stuck to if he’s saying that publically what was he saying privately? Anyways I don’t expect fans to agree if they’ve never been apart of junior or pro hockey, and just look at things from an on ice point of view. Especially if said fans consider our lack of depth and bring that into this scenario. Especially with Eichel being potentially hurt, mittlestadt not maturing like once expected, and ROR coming in and burning us last week while putting together s good on ice season this year.

 

[joshjull]

One of the reasons I was able to live with this trade and the hit we would take short term in talent and the overall meh nature of the return was that Sam would get a shot playing center . To me he would be a natural fit for 2nd line center and hopefully would replace ROR. That we aren’t even going to try that and instead go to Sobotka and Erod has made me quite pissed.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

From all reports, it was centered around ROR's attitude and character. Botts didn't want that in the room. So he traded him 5 years before his contract expires. It sure wasn't because he was a UFA to be, or a talent issue (if it was, Botts needs to be fired yesterday). Players traded that are talented and traded before people expect, are most likely traded because management doesn't see them fit onto the team, most likely due to the player's chemistry (tied to his character/attitude) (which is questionable since he seemed to have good/great chemistry with Eichel, Okposo, Reinhart (two of which are leaders today)), and Bott's made the decision, as most GMs do, with assumptions. I say assume because they don't have a crystal ball in their office so they can't see the future and the consequences of their decisions. I probably should've said guesstimated to soften the harshness.

But if he wasn't traded for that, please explain why he was traded, unless you believe the $7 million bonus he was promised as THE reason why he was traded, the $7 million bonus that was there in the beginning when Tim Murray signed him to the deal. And I'm sure Terry Pegula the man who likes to be behind the scenes with all the franchise's big moves knew about.

I think the other guy hit the nail on the head -- Botts wanted a big shake-up trade, and ROR was the only one who:

1) Wasn't deemed part of the very small core (of probably just Eichel and Dahlin, in Botts eyes),
2) had value, was highly desired, and
3) other teams could actually meet the trade demand (which wasn't the case w/ Reinhart/Risto, who he also peddled if you believe the reports at the time)

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Fans only see guys produce and don’t realize the locker room chemistry is as important now as on ice chemistry.

Who’s to say the guy isn’t good in the locker room, the track record speaks for itself with teams he leaves even improving when he does although given the kind of player he is it seems far fetched to think he could be that big of a factor. It’s a bit of coincidence, witj other multiple host of other factors and maybe a bit him too.

If you’ve never played hockey at a junior level and disagree with me I’m sorry but even at the junior level this happens. That’s why there is this whole “he’s a locker room cancer” thing to begin with. I’m not calling him one persay I’m just saying toxis attitudes are toxic for a reason. It’s a scientific fact that negativity in humans is contagious and spreads like a virus, especially when with those attitudes on a dail basis like nhlers are, new habits form, new pathways are created in your brain (even if your an adult) I’m not putting this all on one guy. That would be way too
Unfair not am I suggesting this is a major factor, I’m just tying to explain the science and metrics behind one guy being part of the problem, not the whole provlem, but part. We will never know how big but we do know a few things. We know that everyone in the sabres room before the season samtarted said they felt negativity was lifted and they had a new attitude (I thought at the time they were just saying that) and even though there’s been struggles recently they were still night and day better then last year so apparently it’s true. We’ve also seen a team that was good and supposed to rise shrug their shoulders and go “I don’t know” and outside that we saw his atttitide post game and come out with rather concerning public Statements. I’ve always stuck to if he’s saying that publically what was he saying privately? Anyways I don’t expect fans to agree if they’ve never been apart of junior or pro hockey, and just look at things from an on ice point of view. Especially if said fans consider our lack of depth and bring that into this scenario. Especially with Eichel being potentially hurt, mittlestadt not maturing like once expected, and ROR coming in and burning us last week while putting together s good on ice season this year.

Regardless, you don't remove your most effective, minute-munching 2C -- and not replace him -- just because of locker room chemistry. If he replaced ROR with a roughly equivalent player who didn't have attitude issues, that would be a different conversation.

Botts blew a hole in the roster and had no plans for replacing the hole that made sense. If this was one of several moves that revamped the roster in a complete way (e.g. another defensively-sound center was brought in), he would be given much more leeway, I suspect.

So even if you're right about culture, Botts still dropped the ball...big time.

 

[Panthaz89]

the locker room chemistry talk is kind of annoying we wouldn't rely so much on Eichel dominating on the first line in order to outscore opponents if team chemistry was "fixed" that requires a team that actually produces not one line and defenseman and all of the guys that are producing are generally new or were already producing well with O'Reily on the team.

 

[enthusiast]

I'm sure someone would of something offered something better especially with 5 years on the contract.

We can choose to believe this, but it doesn't make it a concrete possibility.

@sabrebuild I tend to think, rightly or wrongly, that this is the end result of a situation that could have been handled previously, but *because* of the quality of the player, caused hesitation on the part of relevant parties. It's at the point that it became obvious to those outside the franchise that something was amiss that I believe Botts felt his hand forced. I wouldn't be surprised if Pegs stuck his nose in at that point as well.

 

[sabrebuild]

We can choose to believe this, but it doesn't make it a concrete possibility.

@sabrebuild I tend to think, rightly or wrongly, that this is the end result of a situation that could have been handled previously, but *because* of the quality of the player, caused hesitation on the part of relevant parties. It's at the point that it became obvious to those outside the franchise that something was amiss that I believe Botts felt his hand forced. I wouldn't be surprised if Pegs stuck his nose in at that point as well.

I agree with you, as we shoot blindly to some degree.

My only real problem at this point is that there is no hockey reason to do this when they did and how they did it. They could have easily ate the signing bonus and dragged it thru the summer and early season if necessary to get a legitimate return, not even a stupendous one. I mean this was a dead last place team, is there really a credible leg to stand on that the future would be ruined by O’Reilly staying on the team into November? Or just after the bonus to get cheap teams back in the market?

In the end, for my thoughts towards the team, I leave it there. They consciously made a choice to get a bad return for one of their best players. I’m sure they had reasons. Maybe those internal reasons were totally worth it long term, as in trading him at all.

But there is nothing but ego behind not paying the bonus and waiting for a better return. And to that I give Pegula a middle finger. While still loving them. Cuz if you can’t call bullshit when it’s clear, then what’s the point.

 

[ZZamboni]

Not replacing ROR with a good equivalent is probably the largest blunder he's done to the roster since he's been the GM. I hope he knows this and is actively attempting to fix it.

 

[Fezzy126]

Yeah, this doesn't hold water to me...

Not everybody could afford his contract, not everybody was WILLING to give up pieces necessary for ROR (a 2nd line center) because of internal cap/financial issues (like teams balking at the bonus money he was owed). Other teams didn't have a NEED for him that would lead them to give up premiere pieces (some teams have the role he provides already covered). And then there's teams GM's that don't think he's good enough) There are many reasons why teams weren't in on ROR besides talent evaluation reasons. And Yes, the timeline could play into it, so don't say regardless of timeline).

This deal has been ridiculed Ad nauseam, basically classified as 2x cap dumps, a b-level prospect, and two lottery tickets. Now your arguing that no one was willing to beat that price?

As for the cap hit or the need arguments, if he's seen as the elite piece that puts you over the top, teams find a way to fit him in. Chicago didn't need Hossa, Pittsburgh didn't need Kessel, San Jose/Karlsson, Tampa/McDonough, or perhaps the most obvious example - Mike Richards...

Botts wanted to get rid of him. Nothing was going to stop him. The fact he took the STL package when he still had term on the contract to get a better package, tells me ROR was as good as gone without any considerable effort to try and rectify an issue on the team. It's the same mindset you see when you see posters say "Well, if he doesn't want to be here, then get rid of him", the only bad part is Botts has the power to do so. The only issue with that thinking, is that players become friends when together, they may treat it like a business, as the saying goes, but they see how management treats the players, especially players that were important to them winning, word gets around pretty quickly. ROR is a well respected guy. We already had a management team that didn't treat players well, and we spent decades trying to fix/change that.

There's a whole lot of leaps in here without any substance to back it up. As a counterargument I could easily say that ROR demanded a trade and tied Bott's hands, but it serves no purpose, no one really knows what happened behind closed doors. This is the opposite of the "he's a cancer in the room" argument, which I also have no interest in acknowledging.

So far from my initial question of why weren't there better offers I have:
"NHL GMs are idiots"
"Not everyone could afford it"

On July 1st no one has issues with the cap...

My theory - I think the guy has developed a reputation and it affected his value.

 

[sabremike]

Isn't it widely believed Carolina was very interested but it fell apart when Dundon balked at paying the $7 million?

 

[Icicle]

The problem is that we were hellbent on trading him and didn't care about the return at all. The Blues GM took complete advantage of being handed every last bit of leverage in this situation. We played our hand in the worst possible manner and this was the unfortunate result. The lesson to be learned here is to never force a trade, be patient and only do a deal when you get the price you want.

ROR forced the trade with his comments. He setup mid-summer interviews to try to back-track, but some comments, as true as they may be, you can NEVER step back from. And his were exactly that. I suggest you shift some of the blame to the player himself who made comments that have no place in a pro team's locker room under a GM who said on day 1 his biggest priority is culture.

 

[Icicle]

the locker room chemistry talk is kind of annoying we wouldn't rely so much on Eichel dominating on the first line in order to outscore opponents if team chemistry was "fixed" that requires a team that actually produces not one line and defenseman and all of the guys that are producing are generally new or were already producing well with O'Reily on the team.

We relied exclusively on Eichel's line last season with ROR to do all the 5-on-5 scoring. Almost all of ROR's points were from the PP. ROR's line had nearly no production despite all the minutes he had. You can say he faced tough competition, but his most common linemate was Sam Reinhart, and we had a 4th line of Berglund-Larsson-Girgensons that did the same role just as effectively for half of this season, without the high paying salaries you expect to score goals from.

 

[GellMann]

ROR forced the trade with his comments. He setup mid-summer interviews to try to back-track, but some comments, as true as they may be, you can NEVER step back from. And his were exactly that. I suggest you shift some of the blame to the player himself who made comments that have no place in a pro team's locker room under a GM who said on day 1 his biggest priority is culture.

Cam Atkinson on last season "For whatever reason it was like I didn't like playing hockey anymore."

Cam Atkinson this season, on same team: All Star

lol

 

[slip]

ROR forced the trade with his comments. He setup mid-summer interviews to try to back-track, but some comments, as true as they may be, you can NEVER step back from. And his were exactly that. I suggest you shift some of the blame to the player himself who made comments that have no place in a pro team's locker room under a GM who said on day 1 his biggest priority is culture.

You know what builds a winning culture? Winning games. You know how you win games? With guys like ROR centering your second line, not Vladamir Sobotka.

 

[sabrebuild]

Yeah, this doesn't hold water to me...



This deal has been ridiculed Ad nauseam, basically classified as 2x cap dumps, a b-level prospect, and two lottery tickets. Now your arguing that no one was willing to beat that price?

As for the cap hit or the need arguments, if he's seen as the elite piece that puts you over the top, teams find a way to fit him in. Chicago didn't need Hossa, Pittsburgh didn't need Kessel, San Jose/Karlsson, Tampa/McDonough, or perhaps the most obvious example - Mike Richards...



There's a whole lot of leaps in here without any substance to back it up. As a counterargument I could easily say that ROR demanded a trade and tied Bott's hands, but it serves no purpose, no one really knows what happened behind closed doors. This is the opposite of the "he's a cancer in the room" argument, which I also have no interest in acknowledging.

So far from my initial question of why weren't there better offers I have:
"NHL GMs are idiots"
"Not everyone could afford it"

On July 1st no one has issues with the cap...

My theory - I think the guy has developed a reputation and it affected his value.

I think you just don’t care for his answer and ignored mine.

Go thru the teams in the league and consider, how much cash do they have? What is the direction of the team? What are their needs.

In short I think at best you had these teams as real options.

Likely
Montreal
Islanders
St. Louis

Possible
New Jersey
Dallas

There might be a couple other arguables, but that’s pretty much it.

I base that on who has the actual cash and revenues to have to eat a huge bonus, as well as the cap number and is in a position to send back a good return.

And to be honest I think New Jersey is unlikely, their cash history is not great and they have solid center depth already and they tend towards steady development over flashy moves.

If the bonus was paid and negotiations went on after, I think you can immediately add Carolina, Arizona, Columbus and Ottawa to that list.

I don’t think your theory has to be wrong for both points to be valid. O’Reilly might have hurt his value league wide with his comments. But that in and of itself by no means absolves management of getting a trash return for him.

It’s not that GM’s league wide are dumb, it’s that our management was dumb for publicly saying he would be traded before the signing bonus, or not just paying the bonus and then making a better trade.

It’s not that the cap is impossible, it’s that the best teams are locked into deals that don’t make it easy to take on a long term deal for a relatively minor upgrade. And rebuilding teams don’t pay huge for veterans.

So then your stuck with the roughly ten teams who are roster wise in the position to add a veteran top 6 and have assets to trade without gutting their team. And then with the cash issues and conference stupidity, not trading in conference, you lose some more options.

It’s the problem with rushing a trade on a player with a lot of term. It’s why Colorado got a pile for Duchene with just as bad “issues”.

I’m not sure how Hossa makes sense in this, he signed as a free agent and circumvented the cap outrageously.

Karlsson proves the point, San Jose got him for a song, partly because of his ufa status, but heavily because Ottawa had decided they had to move him. If anything bringing up Karlsson should jar your brain into realizing how things work.

Erik Karlsson is a superior player to O’Reilly, a premier superstar at his position. Nobody thinks he was a problem in Ottawa, Ottawa was it’s own problem. And then they traded him like buffoons for basically a similar return as O’Reilly. Why couldn’t they do better? Was it the player or the circumstance of trading a guy when you are not in a position of strength.

McDonagh is the same deal, the Rangers are in rebuild mode, and they got back about the same return as O’Reilly, for a similar player.

So ya, those teams that you said made it happen, did it by taking advantage of those teams. Kessel for a late first, a third and prospect Kapanen, with cap retention and a 2nd, is a crap deal, unless you plan on tanking.

Long story short, sure O’Reilly may have “hurt” his value in some way. No saying how badly he did. On the other hand the history of the league, including your examples, is a history of bad deals happening when a team rushes or forces a trade of a star player.

 

[Fezzy126]

I think you just don’t care for his answer and ignored mine.

Go thru the teams in the league and consider, how much cash do they have? What is the direction of the team? What are their needs.

In short I think at best you had these teams as real options.

Likely
Montreal
Islanders
St. Louis

Possible
New Jersey
Dallas

There might be a couple other arguables, but that’s pretty much it.

I base that on who has the actual cash and revenues to have to eat a huge bonus, as well as the cap number and is in a position to send back a good return.

And to be honest I think New Jersey is unlikely, their cash history is not great and they have solid center depth already and they tend towards steady development over flashy moves.

If the bonus was paid and negotiations went on after, I think you can immediately add Carolina, Arizona, Columbus and Ottawa to that list.

I don’t think your theory has to be wrong for both points to be valid. O’Reilly might have hurt his value league wide with his comments. But that in and of itself by no means absolves management of getting a trash return for him.

It’s not that GM’s league wide are dumb, it’s that our management was dumb for publicly saying he would be traded before the signing bonus, or not just paying the bonus and then making a better trade.

It’s not that the cap is impossible, it’s that the best teams are locked into deals that don’t make it easy to take on a long term deal for a relatively minor upgrade. And rebuilding teams don’t pay huge for veterans.

So then your stuck with the roughly ten teams who are roster wise in the position to add a veteran top 6 and have assets to trade without gutting their team. And then with the cash issues and conference stupidity, not trading in conference, you lose some more options.

It’s the problem with rushing a trade on a player with a lot of term. It’s why Colorado got a pile for Duchene with just as bad “issues”.

I’m not sure how Hossa makes sense in this, he signed as a free agent and circumvented the cap outrageously.

Karlsson proves the point, San Jose got him for a song, partly because of his ufa status, but heavily because Ottawa had decided they had to move him. If anything bringing up Karlsson should jar your brain into realizing how things work.

Erik Karlsson is a superior player to O’Reilly, a premier superstar at his position. Nobody thinks he was a problem in Ottawa, Ottawa was it’s own problem. And then they traded him like buffoons for basically a similar return as O’Reilly. Why couldn’t they do better? Was it the player or the circumstance of trading a guy when you are not in a position of strength.

McDonagh is the same deal, the Rangers are in rebuild mode, and they got back about the same return as O’Reilly, for a similar player.

So ya, those teams that you said made it happen, did it by taking advantage of those teams. Kessel for a late first, a third and prospect Kapanen, with cap retention and a 2nd, is a crap deal, unless you plan on tanking.

Long story short, sure O’Reilly may have “hurt” his value in some way. No saying how badly he did. On the other hand the history of the league, including your examples, is a history of bad deals happening when a team rushes or forces a trade of a star player.

so many words...

I don't think the list should have been that short. Now, I'm not comparing ROR to John Tavares, but they are both top line centers with a strong two-way game. Tavares is certainly considered a tier above offensively, but their overall impact on team performance from the center position should be similarly coveted. If you remember correctly, Tavares had to narrow his list down to six teams:



That would seem to imply that more than six were interested. If those teams could fit a $10M+ free agent, then they could certainly afford a trade for ROR where salary could also be moved out, and they would all have been looking for improvement at the center position.

As for my examples, they weren't examples of trade value or returns, they were examples of teams that seemingly didn't have cap or the positional need. For example, no one thought the bolts needed McDonagh, they had a #1 dman/Norris contender in Hedman, as well as solid depth, but they traded for him anyway.

I definitely agree with the last part though, when a player or team forces a trade the value is often not the best.

 

[OkimLom]

so many words...

I don't think the list should have been that short. Now, I'm not comparing ROR to John Tavares, but they are both top line centers with a strong two-way game. Tavares is certainly considered a tier above offensively, but their overall impact on team performance from the center position should be similarly coveted. If you remember correctly, Tavares had to narrow his list down to six teams:



That would seem to imply that more than six were interested. If those teams could fit a $10M+ free agent, then they could certainly afford a trade for ROR where salary could also be moved out, and they would all have been looking for improvement at the center position.

As for my examples, they weren't examples of trade value or returns, they were examples of teams that seemingly didn't have cap or the positional need. For example, no one thought the bolts needed McDonagh, they had a #1 dman/Norris contender in Hedman, as well as solid depth, but they traded for him anyway.

I definitely agree with the last part though, when a player or team forces a trade the value is often not the best.

One player costs MONEY, PROSPECTS, and other ASSETS, that might help them out financially down the road when they need cheap contracts, the other just costs money and you could get for longer...

 

[stokes84]

 

[sabrebuild]

so many words...

I don't think the list should have been that short. Now, I'm not comparing ROR to John Tavares, but they are both top line centers with a strong two-way game. Tavares is certainly considered a tier above offensively, but their overall impact on team performance from the center position should be similarly coveted. If you remember correctly, Tavares had to narrow his list down to six teams:



That would seem to imply that more than six were interested. If those teams could fit a $10M+ free agent, then they could certainly afford a trade for ROR where salary could also be moved out, and they would all have been looking for improvement at the center position.

As for my examples, they weren't examples of trade value or returns, they were examples of teams that seemingly didn't have cap or the positional need. For example, no one thought the bolts needed McDonagh, they had a #1 dman/Norris contender in Hedman, as well as solid depth, but they traded for him anyway.

I definitely agree with the last part though, when a player or team forces a trade the value is often not the best.

I think the actual cap number, is the easiest part of these trades. Particularly for what RoR gets. It’s a nice number as contracts continue to payout. But it’s a factor that plays into how hard the the transaction is for any player.

Again, the ufa comparison doesn’t work because as we both agree, teams have plenty of cap at that point and the assets they have to give up in a trade significantly differs from the teams that have cap space.

For instance, the Penguins could find the space to bring on O’Reilly. But what do they have that you want, that they would reasonably give up? They are winning now, so take away any good roster player.

That package is like Brassard, Sprong, 2019 first and minor additions. They don’t have any blue chippers or expected good picks.

And that goes for a half a dozen of the contending rich teams. And that signing bonus is a real factor for a lot of cash strapped teams. I’m sure they still made offers, but a lesser value and they probably hoped the Sabres would blink at the poor offers and pay the bonus and then deal. Who knows for sure.

Lots of words because some topics are complex and interesting enough to fully explore.

I score this one we agree on cap space and timing, and I’ll continue to convince you that the bonus is a big factor in value as well.

 

[Montag DP]

Linesman trying to give the other team a chance to win a faceoff?

 

[Tage2Tuch]

We still could make out with a superstar from all this. I elaborate below and I’m not talking about a pick from this year that’s protected.

Regardless, you don't remove your most effective, minute-munching 2C -- and not replace him -- just because of locker room chemistry. If he replaced ROR with a roughly equivalent player who didn't have attitude issues, that would be a different conversation.

Botts blew a hole in the roster and had no plans for replacing the hole that made sense. If this was one of several moves that revamped the roster in a complete way (e.g. another defensively-sound center was brought in), he would be given much more leeway, I suspect.

So even if you're right about culture, Botts still dropped the ball...big time.

Oh I’m not saying it was a brilliant or even great move Here, I was just talking about the attitudes spreading and how it translates to culture and on ice stuff as well. It’s not the issue just like he’s not the whole problem but it’s all apart of something. I agree that we should of got more.

We still could make out good here, if Thompson ever becomes a secondary scoring guy or if the blues end up getting a top pick and say they land a chance to get Hughes or Kakko or a top three pick they will opt to keep it and guess what happens then? We get there 2020 by default and that isn’t protected like the 2019 one was, and if they suck again, guess who gets there top pick no matter what? (Assuming they suck again when they made this deal they didn’t figure that one of these first round picks would be high in 2020 or even 2019 as they obviously figured they would be in playoffs) So yeah we still will end up with another good prospect regardless (so at least there’s that) but if the blues do keep this years protected (from us) puck then we get there’s next year that won’t be so either way, but I agree botts should of done better. Even sundqvist or Thomas/Klostin rather then one of berglund sobotka would be way better but I guess he was going for depth. Anyway he did hit a homer with skinner.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Is Ryan O'Reilly a 1C? Yes, he is in the ~22-35 range among all centers. Is he a 1C on a contender? Hell no. RoR is the ultimate supporting center. But you cannot be considered a premier high end 1C when you have never reacher 30 goals, 40 assists, 65 points or made it past round 1 in the first 9 seasons of your career.

RoR will likely finish with career highs across the board. 30-35 goals, 40-45 assists and ~75 points is a reasonable estimate based on current pace. Unfortunately he turns 28 in a month and was never a good skater to begin with. Sooner rather then later his skating will deteriorate, and when he reaches 30/31 he is likely a ~55 point player at that point since his skating will not hold up enough to allow him to continue receiving 20+ mins a night.

If RoR never held out inflating his salary and he was signed to a deal closer to 6,6.5 mil instead of 7.5 mil then he would likely be here. But at his current pay, Botts knew he could not allocate 23.5 mil on Eichel, RoR and Okposo for the next 4 coming into this season. Not with Reinhart, Dahlin, Mitts, and McCabe among others who would need new deals prior to the big 3s deals expiring.

At some point though you need to question why a supposed franchise shutdown center has made the playoffs twice in 10 seasons with minimal production and no games past the first round.

It is because RoR is a supporting piece, not a foundational one. A cup contender can not have RoR as one of its top 2 forwards. He is best suited as a 2C being the 4th or 5th best option. Unfortunately he was paid as a superstar when he signed his deal.