The Ryan O’Reilly Discussion Quarantine Zone [All ROR Posts Here] (Mod Notes OP)

[OkimLom]

I'm just glad this board didn't exist when Hasek was traded. That thread would still be going to this day.

i've been meaning to bring this up...haha

 

[sufferer]

We should do a poll to see if the same people who are alright with the O'Reilly trade were excited to see Derek Roy take up the mantle after the co-captains left.

 

[Fearnot]

The 1st isn't conditional. Calling it conditional makes it sound like the pick can be something other than a 1st, which it cannot. The question is whether we get the pick this year or next year, not whether we get it at all.

So it's down to semantics, I phrased conditional because there is a condition on the pick that it won't be a high pick and they have the option to take it away if it's worth it to them this year. It's not a pure first there are strings attached which had value to the Blues including it in the trade.

 

[Gordo21]

So it's down to semantics, I phrased conditional because there is a condition on the pick that it won't be a high pick and they have the option to take it away if it's worth it to them this year. It's not a pure first there are strings attached which had value to the Blues including it in the trade.

If it's pick 11 they have no option. That's a high pick.

Again, glass half empty or full.

 

[Baccus]

Again, glass half empty or full.

It's almost as if life, the world and hockey have more than just those two choices.

 

[Gordo21]

It's almost as if life, the world and hockey have more than just those two choices.

Almost, except I was responding to Fearnot talking about a specific part of the O'Reilly trade whereby St Louis gave us a first round pick that's only top ten protected.

St Louis does not have the choice beyond pick 10.
.

 

[Baccus]

Almost, except I was responding to Fearnot talking about a specific part of the O'Reilly trade whereby St Louis gave us a first round pick that's only top ten protected.

St Louis does not have the choice beyond pick 10.
.

as per Capfriendly "Conditions: If St. Louis' 2019 1st round pick ends up being a top 10 pick, the Blues have the option to keep the 2019 1st round pick and send Buffalo their 2020 1st round pick instead."

As I said, things are not so binary.

 

[Gordo21]

as per Capfriendly "Conditions: If St. Louis' 2019 1st round pick ends up being a top 10 pick, the Blues have the option to keep the 2019 1st round pick and send Buffalo their 2020 1st round pick instead."

As I said, things are not so binary.

Yes, and wouldn't the 11th pick be wonderful.

Great job Botts!

 

[sabrebuild]

If we're going to dive into the what-if hole I don't think it's unreasonable to say that they look at the roster with salary considerations and decide that Skinner is a no-go. It's an unprovable assertion though so there's not a lot of ground there

Oh I totally agree it’s possible that they wouldn’t. But it’s definitely not in the land of probable.

I mean, this year they could definitely fit the contract. Next year it becomes even easier with Pominville and beaulieu gone. Then Hunwick, Sheary and Bogo.

So while it certainly is possible, it seems like an extreme stretch to think they wouldn’t have done it.

I mean after trading Kane, this was literally a no lose situation. A second and a meh prospect for a likely upgrade for Kane on a reasonable contract? Yes, please.

I’m all for questioning everything, but this reasoning in general is unbelievably tenuous.

 

[brian_griffin]

I think this is my first post in this thread because I kinda felt I moved on. Just came to note, from reading a couple of the other threads, that ROR is the Sabres board equivalent of "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon". All other Sabres board threads devolve to a ROR reference in 6 pages or less.

 

[joshjull]

The same because Berglund was never a noticeable player for us, and 28/22 are just fine without him as long as they're together. 4 point in 23 game Patrik Berglund is not the difference between how anyone is viewing this trade, and shouldn't be. It's a bizarre thing to focus on really given what he brought to the team.

Why won't the Blues keep this up? Their underlying metrics have been outstanding for over half the season now, and they've played their last ~30 games, over half the season, at a 108 point pace. Whereas in their first 12 games, for example, their goalies allowed 3 or more goals, usually 4+, 11 times. You think it's more likely that their goaltending regresses to the worst in the league than their objectively great underlying metrics continue sustainably good hockey?

Probably because its hinged largely on a rookie goalie playing out of his mind.

13 starts --> 11-1-1 /1.53 GAA/.938 SV%/ 3 shutouts

Maybe the kid keeps it up the rest of the season

 

[Aladyyn]

Probably because its hinged largely on a rookie goalie playing out of his mind.

13 starts --> 11-1-1 /1.53 GAA/.938 SV%/ 3 shutouts

Maybe the kid keeps it up the rest of the season

Not really.

 

[Jim Bob]

Probably because its hinged largely on a rookie goalie playing out of his mind.

13 starts --> 11-1-1 /1.53 GAA/.938 SV%/ 3 shutouts

Maybe the kid keeps it up the rest of the season

I do have to say that I respect his twitter handle game.

 

[joshjull]

Not really.

Yeah really.

Allen in 6gms since the 1st of January has a 3-3-0 record with a 3.00 GAA and a 884 SV%. That's behind the same Blues team Binnington has been lights out for. You would have to be pretty delusional to think the tandem of Allen and Chad Johnson (who they had prior to the kid's call up) would have gone 11-1-1 in those 13 games. Even with the Blues playing the way they've been there is no way in hell it happens. The chart you posted does nothing to counter this.

 

[sabrebuild]

I think this is my first post in this thread because I kinda felt I moved on. Just came to note, from reading a couple of the other threads, that ROR is the Sabres board equivalent of "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon". All other Sabres board threads devolve to a ROR reference in 6 pages or less.

1,000 likes

 

[sabrebuild]

Yeah really.

Allen in 6gms since the 1st of January has a 3-3-0 record with a 3.00 GAA and a 884 SV%. That's behind the same Blues team Binnington has been lights out for. You would have to be pretty delusional to think the tandem of Allen and Chad Johnson (who they had prior to the kid's call up) would have gone 11-1-1 in those 13 games. Even with the Blues playing the way they've been there is no way in hell it happens. The chart you posted does nothing to counter this.

Not having watched a minute of the blues in three months, I wonder if Alladyn’s point is just that the team has been fantastic, which has given the rookie a chance to provide respectable goaltending. His numbers just being inflated by Duchene excellent play.

As I said, haven’t watched a single game since November, so the rookie could be Hasek come again. Just a possibility.

 

[joshjull]

Not having watched a minute of the blues in three months, I wonder if Alladyn’s point is just that the team has been fantastic, which has given the rookie a chance to provide respectable goaltending. His numbers just being inflated by Duchene excellent play.

As I said, haven’t watched a single game since November, so the rookie could be Hasek come again. Just a possibility.

Even if he meant what you're attributing to him it still misses the mark.


Of the 68 goalies with at least 10 starts this year Binnington is 1st in GAA (1.69) and 3rd in save% (.931). That's not "respectable" goaltending, That's Vezina caliber goaltending if maintained for a season. For comparison Allen is 51st and 54th respectively in those same categories and Johnson was even worse.

In the 6gms in Jan/Feb that Allen started while the Blues were playing "fantastic" in front of him, he still had a sub .900sv% and a 3+ GAA. To state the obvious the team play in front of him hasn't done much to get him to play better. Nor would Johnson likely do better either. Which is why there is no way in hell the Blues go 11-1-1 in the kids 13 starts if Allen/Johnson were the goalies in those games. Its why I said Binnington saved the Blues season.

The Blues situation is about as obvious as it gets of an example of a goalie saving a season. I don't to see how his posting an expected goal differential chart refutes this in any way.

Can the kid maintain this level of play? I have no idea but it will be fun to watch it play out. I'm always a sucker for story like this. I hope the kid pulls it off.

 

[TK 421]

Not having watched a minute of the blues in three months, I wonder if Alladyn’s point is just that the team has been fantastic, which has given the rookie a chance to provide respectable goaltending. His numbers just being inflated by Duchene excellent play.

As I said, haven’t watched a single game since November, so the rookie could be Hasek come again. Just a possibility.

It's both. Binnington has played extremely well and that coincides directly with strong play from the skaters. He was definitely the catalyst for bridging the gap between strong play and wins though.

 

[GellMann]

Probably because its hinged largely on a rookie goalie playing out of his mind.

13 starts --> 11-1-1 /1.53 GAA/.938 SV%/ 3 shutouts

Maybe the kid keeps it up the rest of the season

They have the fewest shots/chances allowed in the NHL over the last couple months and even when goaltending was bad had really nice xGF numbers which have stayed consistent. They have room for goaltending regression as a top defensive team in the NHL.

I don't doubt that goaltending regression will happen, and will take a hit in that they won't win the rest of their games this year. I am not convinced that it will regress to worst-in-the-league to fall back six points to, and then be passed by, teams that play awful hockey like the Avalanche and Canucks. The current goaltending that's unsustainable is correlating to an unsustainable banked-points percentage in the form of an 8 game streak. I'm unconvinced that the regression pulls them to the level of a terrible team when everything about their game suggests that they're a very good one. People tend to equate regression from a win streak to being a bad team for a long time, which only happens if your team is actually bad at hockey like the Sabres were for a long time there (they've been playing good hockey lately)

Further, there are fewer and fewer games remaining with which to string together harmful hockey results. The team is playing at a 109+ pace since early December. The poster says, without providing any evidence for how this will happen or why it's more likely than any other alternative, and then refusing to acknowledge it when prodded twice, that he thinks they'll be bottom-10 in the league when all is said and done, not just not-winning-every-game. This is the sentiment from which I asked my question that you answered today.

Is the regression really going to be the Blues returning to the worst goaltending in the league outside of pre-Hart Philly, or this great goaltending actually regression from two months of garbage in the net (their goalies allowed more than 3 GPG in 11 of their first 12 starts, and it was usually 4+). I just don't see why we should view an expected goalie regression as going back to where they're ACTUALLY regressing from right now, rather than somewhere in the middle 10 goalies in the league, unless someone could show me that Binnington is an actual-bad goalie getting lucky.

And then I need to be convinced there's enough time left in the standings for it to devastate them, and that it will be so bad that the objectively great hockey they've played for 2 months can't help it.

 

[Willgamesh]

The 1st isn't conditional. Calling it conditional makes it sound like the pick can be something other than a 1st, which it cannot. The question is whether we get the pick this year or next year, not whether we get it at all.

The 1st has a condition on it that it is top 10 protected this year therefor conditional.

con·di·tion·al

1. 1.
   subject to one or more conditions or requirements being met; made or granted on certain terms.
   
   Condition being if its top 10 we dont get it this year, come on its not that hard. The pick clearly has a condition on it.

 

[sabrebuild]

Even if he meant what you're attributing to him it still misses the mark.


Of the 68 goalies with at least 10 starts this year Binnington is 1st in GAA (1.69) and 3rd in save% (.931). That's not "respectable" goaltending, That's Vezina caliber goaltending if maintained for a season. For comparison Allen is 51st and 54th respectively in those same categories and Johnson was even worse.

In the 6gms in Jan/Feb that Allen started while the Blues were playing "fantastic" in front of him, he still had a sub .900sv% and a 3+ GAA. To state the obvious the team play in front of him hasn't done much to get him to play better. Nor would Johnson likely do better either. Which is why there is no way in hell the Blues go 11-1-1 in the kids 13 starts if Allen/Johnson were the goalies in those games. Its why I said Binnington saved the Blues season.

The Blues situation is about as obvious as it gets of an example of a goalie saving a season. I don't to see how his posting an expected goal differential chart refutes this in any way.

Can the kid maintain this level of play? I have no idea but it will be fun to watch it play out. I'm always a sucker for story like this. I hope the kid pulls it off.

It's both. Binnington has played extremely well and that coincides directly with strong play from the skaters. He was definitely the catalyst for bridging the gap between strong play and wins though.

Agreed that it’s most likely a combination of both.

My thoughts on Binnington’s numbers are simply that a tremendous performance by your skaters can give a goalie Vezina level stats, without that goalie actually performing at a Vezina level.

Pominville, for example, scoring like a first liner, despite not actually playing like one as Eichel and Skinner set him up.

We have all seen goalies get shutouts they did very little in and great performances that gave 3-4 goals.

It sounds like Bennington has played well, I just suspect he has provided them average to above average play, versus super human tending.

Ocho and Allen have been unbelievably bad in a league that has good goaltending on like 85% of the league.

 

[GellMann]

It sucks that we took this potential and shoved it into the most defensive role in history, measured by raw number of d-zone starts with 4th line trash, to artificially suppress its trade value, and then filled the vacuum of the 2C left behind with a guy who now has 42 straight games without a goal, is on pace for 15 points, and is dreadful at every facet of the game that isn't left-dot-faceoffs according to Phil.

This gets matched up against Evgeni Malkin, John Tavares, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Steven Stamkos, Vincent Trocheck, Sean Couturier(sometimes?) as we carom through the eastern conference.

Whether or not you buy into culture issues, or like the trade, focusing only on AFTER, what the actual f*** were we thinking when we decided our centers behind Jack were acceptable for a non-tank NHL season.

 

[sufferer]

VoRtEx oF sAdNeSs

 

[Havok89]

Some fans seriously thought it was addition by subtraction.

 

[joshjull]

They have the fewest shots/chances allowed in the NHL over the last couple months and even when goaltending was bad had really nice xGF numbers which have stayed consistent. They have room for goaltending regression as a top defensive team in the NHL.

I don't doubt that goaltending regression will happen, and will take a hit in that they won't win the rest of their games this year. I am not convinced that it will regress to worst-in-the-league to fall back six points to, and then be passed by, teams that play awful hockey like the Avalanche and Canucks. The current goaltending that's unsustainable is correlating to an unsustainable banked-points percentage in the form of an 8 game streak. I'm unconvinced that the regression pulls them to the level of a terrible team when everything about their game suggests that they're a very good one. People tend to equate regression from a win streak to being a bad team for a long time, which only happens if your team is actually bad at hockey like the Sabres were for a long time there (they've been playing good hockey lately)

Further, there are fewer and fewer games remaining with which to string together harmful hockey results. The team is playing at a 109+ pace since early December. The poster says, without providing any evidence for how this will happen or why it's more likely than any other alternative, and then refusing to acknowledge it when prodded twice, that he thinks they'll be bottom-10 in the league when all is said and done, not just not-winning-every-game. This is the sentiment from which I asked my question that you answered today.

Is the regression really going to be the Blues returning to the worst goaltending in the league outside of pre-Hart Philly, or this great goaltending actually regression from two months of garbage in the net (their goalies allowed more than 3 GPG in 11 of their first 12 starts, and it was usually 4+). I just don't see why we should view an expected goalie regression as going back to where they're ACTUALLY regressing from right now, rather than somewhere in the middle 10 goalies in the league, unless someone could show me that Binnington is an actual-bad goalie getting lucky.

And then I need to be convinced there's enough time left in the standings for it to devastate them, and that it will be so bad that the objectively great hockey they've played for 2 months can't help it.

No matter how you try to spin things the Blues were 16-19-4 before Binnington's first start on Jan 7th. In the 15 games leading up to that game they were 7-7-1. They were no where close to being a playoff team or even in the discussion until they took off with him in net.

Do I think they will drop to a bottom 10 team? No. Do I think its realistic to expect this kid to play at a Vezina level for the rest of the season? Probably not but I have no idea. He is a rookie with no history to use as a guide.

I'm also not a fan of your math equation approach to this. As in if the system is played at a certain level it guarantees outcomes. LIke a team playing at level X will lead to goalie performance of level X. That's not how it works. There is definitely a relationship between the goalie and the team in front of him. His performance can be impacted by the team's play but goalies can always be worse or better than the circumstances around them. Its why Allen is putting up terrible numbers during the Blues surge in team play from early December on and Binnington is playing at a Vezina level. Its actually amazing to see such wide swings in performance from one team's goalies.

You're basically arguing that Binnington is somewhat along for the ride due to the Blues team play and even if he falls off it won't matter because their team play will carry the day. If that's the case then why isn't Allen along for that same ride? They've been playing this way for over 2 months (beginning of December) by your own admission. Yet Allen has a 9-8-1 record in 18 starts during that time frame with a roughly 2.80 GAA and a .899 SV%. Even if I shrink the time frame to just the 6 games Allen started in Jan/Feb he is 3-3 with a roughly 3+ GAA and a .884 SV%. ** Compared to Binnigton's 11-1-1 record in 13 starts with a 1.53 GAA and a .938 SV%. Hard to argue how the Blues are playing is a guarantee of success with such wildly different results from their goalies during that time frame. Its almost as if the goalies themselves have an impact on things. If the kid can keep it rolling the Blues should roll along. If he stumbles they are going to stubble with him.

**Ironically Allen's best month of the season was November before the team play improved. He had a 2.58 GAA and a .917 SV% but was 4-5 in his 9 starts. He has gotten worse each of the next two months as team play improved.