The Ryan O’Reilly Discussion Quarantine Zone [All ROR Posts Here] (Mod Notes OP)

[Dubi Doo]

Can we all finally admit this was an idiotic trade by Botts?

 

[Aladyyn]

Yeah really.

Allen in 6gms since the 1st of January has a 3-3-0 record with a 3.00 GAA and a 884 SV%. That's behind the same Blues team Binnington has been lights out for. You would have to be pretty delusional to think the tandem of Allen and Chad Johnson (who they had prior to the kid's call up) would have gone 11-1-1 in those 13 games. Even with the Blues playing the way they've been there is no way in hell it happens. The chart you posted does nothing to counter this.

There are degrees to goaltending between "giga atrocious" and "mega awesome"

 

[GellMann]

No matter how you try to spin things the Blues were 16-19-4 before Binnington's first start on Jan 7th. In the 15 games leading up to that game they were 7-7-1. They were no where close to being a playoff team or even in the discussion until they took off with him in net.

Do I think they will drop to a bottom 10 team? No. Do I think its realistic to expect this kid to play at a Vezina level for the rest of the season? Probably not but I have no idea. He is a rookie with no history to use as a guide.

I'm also not a fan of your math equation approach to this. As in if the system is played at a certain level it guarantees outcomes. LIke a team playing at level X will lead to goalie performance of level X. That's not how it works. There is definitely a relationship between the goalie and the team in front of him. His performance can be impacted by the team's play but goalies can always be worse or better than the circumstances around them. Its why Allen is putting up terrible numbers during the Blues surge in team play from early December on and Binnington is playing at a Vezina level. Its actually amazing to see such wide swings in performance from one team's goalies.

You're basically arguing that Binnington is somewhat along for the ride due to the Blues team play and even if he falls off it won't matter because their team play will carry the day. If that's the case then why isn't Allen along for that same ride? They've been playing this way for over 2 months (beginning of December) by your own admission. Yet Allen has a 9-8-1 record in 18 starts during that time frame with a roughly 2.80 GAA and a .899 SV%. Even if I shrink the time frame to just the 6 games Allen started in Jan/Feb he is 3-3 with a roughly 3+ GAA and a .884 SV%. ** Compared to Binnigton's 11-1-1 record in 13 starts with a 1.53 GAA and a .938 SV%. Hard to argue how the Blues are playing is a guarantee of success with such wildly different results from their goalies during that time frame. Its almost as if the goalies themselves have an impact on things. If the kid can keep it rolling the Blues should roll along. If he stumbles they are going to stubble with him.

**Ironically Allen's best month of the season was November before the team play improved. He had a 2.58 GAA and a .917 SV% but was 4-5 in his 9 starts. He has gotten worse each of the next two months as team play improved.

The original post you quoted, from days ago, was directed at someone who was, in a rather mouthy manner, convinced that the Blues were going to finish bottom-1o. I questioned why, and laid out evidence that suggests otherwise and made me raise my eyebrows at that claim, and got no response. That was all I was originally arguing.

You then responded with a post that shows how stellar Binnington has been during a stretch which is ~75% comprised of an 8-game-winning-streak (not sure if Allen has started any/how many he has), which I completely agree is completely unsustainable, as the NHL has never had anything close to an 82-0 team.

I then reiterated, from the perspective of the post I replied to when I made the first one, that it is unconvincing that just because Binnington is playing hockey right now at a level he won't be playing in March, necessarily means the Blues are due for a bottom ten finish, because there is a lot to like about every aspect of their hockey team, and they can absorb league-average goaltending and still win a lot of hockey games with the hockey they have played since early December, or for two and a half months now. This is my contention, nothing more, nothing less.

Allen sucks major donkey balls and has for a while right, and their record before the change is both indicative of his inability to stop pucks and the fact that, as I have noticed via watching ~10 blues games and their fans have been insistent about, hockey teams do not play good hockey in front of goalies they don't trust. That description of past events does nothing to convince me of the original dubious point, and if anything, the fact that Allen's bad stats during this good stretch coupled with a way-worse record than Binnington just reaffirms that the blues struggles earlier had far more to do with him than any inherent roster problems, though they are far from perfect like any non-Tampa team.

Say Binnington/their goaltending plays the rest of the year with a save percentage varying somewhere between ~12th and ~22nd in the NHL on a team-wide scale. Average, some good weeks, some bad. Would that sink them out of the playoffs in the west, and to a bottom 1o NHL finish? I don't think it would. Could he falter and have their team goaltending revert to the bottom 2 disaster it was with Ocho/Allen? It definitely could. I think it's far more likely that the former scenario plays out though, and they've basically been a machine in front of their goalies for 2 months now, so I still question any hard claim that they're a bottom 1o hockey team. And even if he's a flash in the pan, the schedule is getting short enough that in the worst case scenario (him falling apart) doesn't drag on for months and months.

TLDR I mean yeah blues goaltending could become a lot worse again, but I wouldn't throw money on a mean-regression from worst in the league as a warning sign that the goaltending will soon revert back to an equally severe outlier where it already spent months (with a goalie that isn't on their team anymore playing a part as well), especially with how good the D has been in front of the goalie and how good that goalie has looked, and would heavily question claims that it'll not only happen but in such a manner as to severely tank the team in a short time span, put forth with no evidence or explanation, certainly not one that even MENTIONS goaltending.

 

[GellMann]

There are degrees to goaltending between "giga atrocious" and "mega awesome"

Not sure why it took me so many words to just say this.

If there's tape that suggests Binnington is actually as bad as Allen but is on a lightning bolt like Hutton was in November, then the chances of sliding back are sizable. I haven't heard anything other than him being a pretty decent netminder in front of an outstanding defense though. And even if they slide back sizeably, the fact that they'll still win games and other teams will still lose them would mean inherent buffers to this even in the worst case scenario, as we can see right now as fans of a team that has played 2.5 months at a last-place-hockey pace and still sits like 2 points back of a playoff spot.

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

View attachment 187151

It sucks that we took this potential and shoved it into the most defensive role in history, measured by raw number of d-zone starts with 4th line trash, to artificially suppress its trade value, and then filled the vacuum of the 2C left behind with a guy who now has 42 straight games without a goal, is on pace for 15 points, and is dreadful at every facet of the game that isn't left-dot-faceoffs according to Phil.

View attachment 187153

This gets matched up against Evgeni Malkin, John Tavares, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Steven Stamkos, Vincent Trocheck, Sean Couturier(sometimes?) as we carom through the eastern conference.

Whether or not you buy into culture issues, or like the trade, focusing only on AFTER, what the actual **** were we thinking when we decided our centers behind Jack were acceptable for a non-tank NHL season.

The rookie high school head coach that deemed it strategically beneficial to deploy ROR like that should've been fired or at the very least convinced of his folly and forced to change it, rather than trading the guy.

Unless the trade was forced by ownership, the GM who scapegoated and rushed to sell low on a prime asset like that should be gone as well.

 

[Zip15]

We pissed away another year of Eichel’s career with this trade. That’s really the long and short of it. And it probably wouldn’t have hurt to get Dahlin some playoff experience in his rookie season.

But, hey, the locker room is happy again. (Presses fingers to earpiece) Wait, I’m getting a report that it’s becoming the same depressing place that it was the last few seasons. Nevermind.

 

[sabrebuild]

We pissed away another year of Eichel’s career with this trade. That’s really the long and short of it. And it probably wouldn’t have hurt to get Dahlin some playoff experience in his rookie season.

But, hey, the locker room is happy again. (Presses fingers to earpiece) Wait, I’m getting a report that it’s becoming the same depressing place that it was the last few seasons. Nevermind.

Botts is playing the long game, just be patient.

O’Reilly was a cancer, who drank too much.

Mitts is a savior.

Sobotka is not a cap dump.

Be patient.

Thompson was the top prospect we were looking for...

Be patient, it’s about development....

 

[Chainshot]

So is this deal worse than, similarly bad as, slightly less bad or not as bad as the Hasek deal?

 

[sabrebuild]

So is this deal worse than, similarly bad as, slightly less bad or not as bad as the Hasek deal?

I’m going with worse. At least with Hasek you had a broke team in an era of huge financial discrepancy.

This was just....

 

[sabremike]

So is this deal worse than, similarly bad as, slightly less bad or not as bad as the Hasek deal?

This was way worse because with Hasek we basically had no choice but to trade him, and everyone knew it.

 

[Dubi Doo]

So is this deal worse than, similarly bad as, slightly less bad or not as bad as the Hasek deal?

The real question is- how do we all move on? 5 stages of grief and all that...I do not know what stage I'm at, but I'm a long ways from acceptance.

 

[Chainshot]

The real question is- how do we all move on? 5 stages of grief and all that...I do not know what stage I'm at, but I'm a long ways from acceptance.

Fire the nitwit who did nothing to build a team to bouy anyone's spirits last year and then made this terrible trade? That would help me move on.

 

[sabremike]

Fire the nitwit who did nothing to build a team to bouy anyone's spirits last year and then made this terrible trade? That would help me move on.

STRAIGHT. INTO. THE. GODDAMNED. SUN.

 

[Aladyyn]

I don't think I've ever been this angry at being 100% right about something.

 

[kirby11]

It's truly incredible that, in exchange for eating 2 cap dumps, shipping out the best player in the deal, and getting no real immediate salary relief, all we got was a protected 1st and STL's 4th or 5th best prospect.

This is Botts' equivalent of a 1st for lehner and legwand

 

[Howie Hodge]

What's the HF expression; "trading a useful player for magic beans?"

Looking more and more that way.

 

[sabresandcanucks]

One aspect of the lead up to the deal that really depresses me in regards to JB's evaluation skills....even if we pulled off the deal with Montreal we were going to draft Brady Tkachuk...nothing against Tkachuk but this means JB actually thought our center depth wasn't a concern with ROR out of the picture. Or, perhaps he was so down on this roster he didn't care as it would be years before we would compete for a playoff spot even with Dahlin.

I have always been of the belief ownership forced JB's hand to move ROR before the bonus was due...but some of these rumoured deals seem to confirm that he poorly evaluated what center depth he had/underestimated the hole ROR would leave on this roster. If he is a humble/smart manager he will attempt to learn from this and perhaps bring in a contrarian voice to challenge the room when such critical moves to the future of this franchise are being debated.

 

[Duddy]

We will be over it when we win a playoff round or two and have center depth again

 

[OkimLom]

What scares me the most is where would we be if Skinner declined the trade...what was Botts plan at that point?

 

[OkimLom]

We will be over it when we win a playoff round or two and have center depth again

Depends how long that takes.

 

[Duddy]

Depends how long that takes.

We got over losing the co captains. We will do fine. It will always be stupid.

 

[debaser66]

Has any of the media ever asked any critical questions about the trade or its backlash?

 

[Aladyyn]

We got over losing the co captains. We will do fine. It will always be stupid.

We did?

 

[OkimLom]

We got over losing the co captains. We will do fine. It will always be stupid.

We got over it when we had new management put in place.

 

[sabremike]

I don't think it's absurd at all to say that Sobotka is a strong contender for worst player to ever put on a Sabres sweater. Oh there are tons of horrible players in our history but at least they tried. They gave an effort. I can't ever recall a guy who on a nightly basis completely plays like he could not care less than Sobotka. There is no player in team history I dislike more than him.