The Ryan O’Reilly Discussion Quarantine Zone [All ROR Posts Here] (Mod Notes OP)

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ZZamboni

Puttin' on the Foil
Sep 25, 2010
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I don't think it's absurd at all to say that Sobotka is a strong contender for worst player to ever put on a Sabres sweater. Oh there are tons of horrible players in our history but at least they tried. They gave an effort. I can't ever recall a guy who on a nightly basis completely plays like he could not care less than Sobotka. There is no player in team history I dislike more than him.

Your memory is quite short sadly. There are several players over the years who are worse than Sobotka. But it’s also subjective to each individual rating of a player I suppose. So if Sobotka actually without you exaggerating, tops your list of 49 years of Sabres players, so be it :dunno:
 

sabremike

Friend To All Giraffes And Lindy Ruff
Aug 30, 2010
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Your memory is quite short sadly. There are several players over the years who are worse than Sobotka. But it’s also subjective to each individual rating of a player I suppose. So if Sobotka actually without you exaggerating, tops your list of 49 years of Sabres players, so be it :dunno:
There may have been players who were worse as players but I can't recall anyone who just phoned it in on a nightly basis like Sobotka which to me makes him far worse.
 

OkimLom

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May 3, 2010
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It’s funny to me, I actually don’t think Sobotka is playing that bad nor do I think he’s phoning it in. He’s actually been pretty good getting the puck in the zone. He’s done a decent job of covering guys. He’s a decent to good 4th line player. He should be playing a little pk and 7-9 mins a game.

I think the main reason people don’t like Sobotka is because he’s used so much by our coach in ways that he shouldn’t.

He shouldn’t be counted on to create offense, that’s just not a strength of his. He’s solid in suppressing chances for the other team.

With all that said, I don’t think Buffalo gets impacted much if he is traded. I don’t want him long term. The quicker we can upgrade from him the better.

Sobotka being on the team is the farthest thing from my issue with him, it’s how he’s used.
 

MagnumForce2

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Dec 16, 2011
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It’s funny to me, I actually don’t think Sobotka is playing that bad nor do I think he’s phoning it in. He’s actually been pretty good getting the puck in the zone. He’s done a decent job of covering guys. He’s a decent to good 4th line player. He should be playing a little pk and 7-9 mins a game.

I think the main reason people don’t like Sobotka is because he’s used so much by our coach in ways that he shouldn’t.

He shouldn’t be counted on to create offense, that’s just not a strength of his. He’s solid in suppressing chances for the other team.

With all that said, I don’t think Buffalo gets impacted much if he is traded. I don’t want him long term. The quicker we can upgrade from him the better.

Sobotka being on the team is the farthest thing from my issue with him, it’s how he’s used.
I think alot of the reason for the Sobotka and Thompson dislike is our need for 2nd line center and how well O’Reilly is playing in St Louis. The return has turned out to be very underwhelming especially as the 1st round pick descends the more St Louis wins. Couple this with the Sabres collapse and it stings even more. As it stands now, Botterill got schooled on the trade.
 

GellMann

Registered User
Dec 16, 2014
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It’s funny to me, I actually don’t think Sobotka is playing that bad nor do I think he’s phoning it in. He’s actually been pretty good getting the puck in the zone. He’s done a decent job of covering guys. He’s a decent to good 4th line player. He should be playing a little pk and 7-9 mins a game.

I think the main reason people don’t like Sobotka is because he’s used so much by our coach in ways that he shouldn’t.

He shouldn’t be counted on to create offense, that’s just not a strength of his. He’s solid in suppressing chances for the other team.

With all that said, I don’t think Buffalo gets impacted much if he is traded. I don’t want him long term. The quicker we can upgrade from him the better.

Sobotka being on the team is the farthest thing from my issue with him, it’s how he’s used.
We have fourth liners that don't create tank-like hockey scenarios for the team every time they step on the ice, because they can skate and know how to play defense and to keep pucks in their possession on the cycle. With harder minutes and competition.

He's not a good 4th liner either. And gets better linemates than the fourth liners do.
 

Icicle

Think big
Oct 16, 2005
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Hilarious everyone claiming they’re right about this trade when one of the main pieces, a 1st rounder, hasn’t even been picked yet. ROR was a 2nd rounder after all.
 

wunderpanda

Registered User
Apr 9, 2012
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We didn't win with ROR as a Sabre, the roster & management aren't much better than the past 4 years.

Sobotka's 5 on 5 production can't be much lower than ROR when he was a Sabre

Jack wouldn't be getting opportunities in all situations if ROR was still a Sabre

Blues made the best offer for ROR, that says something.

I just can't copy/paste ROR this season into Sabres lineup without redistributing everyones production. No guarantee he adds to anyones points without subtracting points from someone else. Won't assume he would have altered enough goals against situations to change the Sabres standings.

I do believe ROR leaving is the best thing for the development of ERod, Larry, Mitts and Jack. Opened up a spot on a still terrible powerplay, negligible drop-off on PK.

To beat a dead horse, would rather have kept Compher & Zad in the first place.
 

OkimLom

Registered User
May 3, 2010
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We have fourth liners that don't create tank-like hockey scenarios for the team every time they step on the ice, because they can skate and know how to play defense and to keep pucks in their possession on the cycle. With harder minutes and competition.

He's not a good 4th liner either. And gets better linemates than the fourth liners do.

If you actual watch him, he does a fairly good job of keeping and working for the puck.
 

OkimLom

Registered User
May 3, 2010
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We didn't win with ROR as a Sabre, the roster & management aren't much better than the past 4 years.

Sobotka's 5 on 5 production can't be much lower than ROR when he was a Sabre

Jack wouldn't be getting opportunities in all situations if ROR was still a Sabre

Blues made the best offer for ROR, that says something.

I just can't copy/paste ROR this season into Sabres lineup without redistributing everyones production. No guarantee he adds to anyones points without subtracting points from someone else. Won't assume he would have altered enough goals against situations to change the Sabres standings.

I do believe ROR leaving is the best thing for the development of ERod, Larry, Mitts and Jack. Opened up a spot on a still terrible powerplay, negligible drop-off on PK.

To beat a dead horse, would rather have kept Compher & Zad in the first place.

Well, this is an interesting take. Probably the closest thing to being a wrong take, but an interesting take.
 

Sabresfansince1980

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Sep 29, 2011
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I see people keep obsessing on the obvious fact that the roster is worse without O'Reilly. This obsession blinds them to any decent discussion about why it happened, who "deserves" blame, or any possible value that can be salvaged down the road.

I don't like it either, but once I started thinking and digging around, I stepped away from the ledge and moved on. Some of you should try it.
 

joshjull

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
78,670
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Hamburg,NY
The original post you quoted, from days ago, was directed at someone who was, in a rather mouthy manner, convinced that the Blues were going to finish bottom-1o. I questioned why, and laid out evidence that suggests otherwise and made me raise my eyebrows at that claim, and got no response. That was all I was originally arguing.

You then responded with a post that shows how stellar Binnington has been during a stretch which is ~75% comprised of an 8-game-winning-streak (not sure if Allen has started any/how many he has), which I completely agree is completely unsustainable, as the NHL has never had anything close to an 82-0 team.

I then reiterated, from the perspective of the post I replied to when I made the first one, that it is unconvincing that just because Binnington is playing hockey right now at a level he won't be playing in March, necessarily means the Blues are due for a bottom ten finish, because there is a lot to like about every aspect of their hockey team, and they can absorb league-average goaltending and still win a lot of hockey games with the hockey they have played since early December, or for two and a half months now. This is my contention, nothing more, nothing less.

Allen sucks major donkey balls and has for a while right, and their record before the change is both indicative of his inability to stop pucks and the fact that, as I have noticed via watching ~10 blues games and their fans have been insistent about, hockey teams do not play good hockey in front of goalies they don't trust. That description of past events does nothing to convince me of the original dubious point, and if anything, the fact that Allen's bad stats during this good stretch coupled with a way-worse record than Binnington just reaffirms that the blues struggles earlier had far more to do with him than any inherent roster problems, though they are far from perfect like any non-Tampa team.

Say Binnington/their goaltending plays the rest of the year with a save percentage varying somewhere between ~12th and ~22nd in the NHL on a team-wide scale. Average, some good weeks, some bad. Would that sink them out of the playoffs in the west, and to a bottom 1o NHL finish? I don't think it would. Could he falter and have their team goaltending revert to the bottom 2 disaster it was with Ocho/Allen? It definitely could. I think it's far more likely that the former scenario plays out though, and they've basically been a machine in front of their goalies for 2 months now, so I still question any hard claim that they're a bottom 1o hockey team. And even if he's a flash in the pan, the schedule is getting short enough that in the worst case scenario (him falling apart) doesn't drag on for months and months.

TLDR I mean yeah blues goaltending could become a lot worse again, but I wouldn't throw money on a mean-regression from worst in the league as a warning sign that the goaltending will soon revert back to an equally severe outlier where it already spent months (with a goalie that isn't on their team anymore playing a part as well), especially with how good the D has been in front of the goalie and how good that goalie has looked, and would heavily question claims that it'll not only happen but in such a manner as to severely tank the team in a short time span, put forth with no evidence or explanation, certainly not one that even MENTIONS goaltending.

We are talking past each other at this point. I already agreed in my previous post that I don't see the Blues dropping into the bottom 10. So it seems like this this long rant is misguided. Maybe it needs to be directed at that other poster who seems to have you still wound up.

What I did take issue with is your seeming reliance on xG projections to argue that the Blues are playing some sort of goalie proof hockey. As in they will win regardless of who is in net. That's what the part of my previous post you bolded was about. They can certainly fall off if Binnington stumbles. But they've built up enough of a cushion that it would take quite a collapse for Binnington for them to drop into the bottom 10. Part of that is the weak division and conference they are in.

Binnington has played at a Vezina type level in his 13 starts. That level of goaltending combined with the Blues strong team were both needed for their run of success into a playoff spot. He doesn't need to maintain that level for them to stay there. Frankly I have no idea what to expect from the kid since he is a rookie. He may keep it up the rest of the way or suddenly realize the pressure situation he is in and start struggling. Neither would shock me but I'm hoping he keeps it up. As I said previously, I love these types of stories where a rookie goalie comes in and saves the day.
 
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joshjull

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
78,670
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Hamburg,NY
There are degrees to goaltending between "giga atrocious" and "mega awesome"

There are also degrees to understanding a point being made. While I talk about the very real goalies who played for the Blues you post charts that don't dispute anything and hypotheticals about goalie degrees of performance. The simple fact is Binnington saved the Blues season. He was lights out to get them on the run they made to get them in a playoff spot. Putting up crazy Vezina level numbers while going 11-1-1. He doesn't need to maintain that level of play to keep them there. But he sure needed to play that way to get them there in the first place while also installing the confidence the team now has in him.
 

Gordo21

Registered User
Feb 9, 2017
978
193
We are talking past each other at this point. I already agreed in my previous post that I don't see the Blues dropping into the bottom 10. So it seems like this this long rant is misguided. Maybe it needs to be directed at that other poster who seems to have you still wound up.

What I did take issue with is your seeming reliance on xG projections to argue that the Blues are playing some sort of goalie proof hockey. As in they will win regardless of who is in net. That's what the part of my previous post you bolded was about. They can certainly fall off if Binnington stumbles. But they've built up enough of a cushion that it would take quite a collapse for Binnington for them to miss the playoffs.
But do the Blues even need to make the playoffs for us to get our pick?
 

sabrebuild

Registered User
Apr 21, 2014
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Pittsburgh
I see people keep obsessing on the obvious fact that the roster is worse without O'Reilly. This obsession blinds them to any decent discussion about why it happened, who "deserves" blame, or any possible value that can be salvaged down the road.

I don't like it either, but once I started thinking and digging around, I stepped away from the ledge and moved on. Some of you should try it.

Everyone has talked about those surrounding issues. Trading him in general is not the issue. It was trading him in the manner they did and for what that is the issue.

Assuming every rumor you ever heard and saw was true about O’Reilly, this was an organization that was fine with having him play tons of minutes to the bitter end, be available for the media and in general over three years not see to have any problem with his behavior or at least any outwardly visible sign both public relations and how he was actually used on the ice.

Given those facts, it is impossible for me to believe that it was sound logic and professionalism that caused them to trade him at a time when he has the least amount of influence or contact with your team, at literally the worst time to trade him in literally every context of a negotiation.

Which leads to thinking it was a poor decision.

Which makes me not care about O’Reilly, but rather that the people running things are not good at it.

I thought the same when Murray traded a first for a goalie, or traded for Kane.

These are just pieces of the puzzle. And the pieces taken together are not great.
 

sabrebuild

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Apr 21, 2014
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In all honesty. When people look at the improvement this year, include the streak because it obviously happened, and let’s say they come in 9th.... how is our management any different than the Oilers after getting McDavid?

If the lotto goes anyway other than how it did, where do they land in the standings? Svechnikov pushes Thompson, Elie to the press box. Best case scenario he fits with Reinhart and Mitts to create a decent 2nd line, whenever Phil tries that out, so maybe December.

And who gets Dahlin’s minutes? And does anybody produce in them at all?

I couldn’t be happier to have the guy. He will be the dominant defensive player in the league.

But man, I can’t imagine the plan was that Skinner will play out of his mind and Dahlin will be the 2nd best 18 year old defender in league history. So I wonder if that means the plan was to tank and they just didn’t tell anybody.

If so, as poorly executed as everything else.
 

Aladyyn

they praying for the death of a rockstar
Apr 6, 2015
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sabrebuild

Registered User
Apr 21, 2014
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Skinner Eichel Rodrigues
Sheary OReilly Reinhart
Olofsson/Nylander Mittelstadt Okposo
Girgensons Larsson Pommer


It could have been this.....Game 1....

To be a negative Nancy that third line still probably sucks, unless Mitts and Oloffson develop chemistry.

But even still....

Three good lines for their roles and one that can be sheltered. That would have been cool
 
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