The Prospects Thread XXV - Stats, Lists in OP

[Pip]

Many who trashed Benning for using a 7th pick on Stewart have already assured us he will be an ECHL player at best. Hearing nothing but positives about this kid, could be a classic late bloomer. I can see him making the AHL this year.

I don't doubt that he has a good chance of being in the AHL this season. The question will be if he's actually an AHL caliber player or not.

 

[arsmaster*]

You guys pumping the practice and 3 on 3 standouts is exactly how Ron Delorme scouts players.

 

[me2]

You guys pumping the practice and 3 on 3 standouts is exactly how Ron Delorme scouts players.

Player's hard work, athleticism, skating and shots all on show in practice. Things we have been targeting.

 

[Pip]

You guys pumping the practice and 3 on 3 standouts is exactly how Ron Delorme scouts players.

I'm really trying not to be a Debbie downer but agreed. Not much can be taken from prospect camps, even the Youngstars (remember the Horvat criticisms there? )

 

[arsmaster*]

I've moved on. glad he's showing well. Would love to eat crow and see him become a player. Would love it.

I hope every benning pick turns into Mario Lemieux.

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

Stewart got attention because those that watched noted he looked fast and strong. Then some people extrapolated from there that he was a surefire future 4th liner and that his signing was only being criticized because of Benning hate.

A development camp does not make an NHL career though.

Edit: this looks super out of context now.

 

[CanuckDon*]

I don't doubt that he has a good chance of being in the AHL this season. The question will be if he's actually an AHL caliber player or not.

Wow you are a cynical fellow! If you draft a 7th rounder that has a solid career in he AHL that's a win. Who knows, he is late to hockey and could fill a Dorsett type role in 4 years. That's a home run

 

[Pip]

Wow you are a cynical fellow! If you draft a 7th rounder that has a solid career in he AHL that's a win. Who knows, he is late to hockey and could fill a Dorsett type role in 4 years. That's a home run

I wouldn't say I'm cynical, Im actually quite high on many of our prospects. I just don't have faith in a player who couldn't establish himself as a decent player in the CHL.

If he does become a hard hitting fourth liner (or more) for us then I will happily eat crow.

 

[CanuckDon*]

I wouldn't say I'm cynical, Im actually quite high on many of our prospects. I just don't have faith in a player who couldn't establish himself as a decent player in the CHL.

If he does become a hard hitting fourth liner (or more) for us then I will happily eat crow.

Fair enough...and I certainly understand your pov. All I'm saying is I find it hilarious Benning gets shredded for late round pics. The chance any 7th round pic makes the NHL is what? 5%?

He is a life long scout. I trust his late round pics as he probably sees value that us fans can't as we aren't at the rink. Intangibles matter in team sports j

 

[Shareefruck]

Fair enough...and I certainly understand your pov. All I'm saying is I find it hilarious Benning gets shredded for late round pics. The chance any 7th round pic makes the NHL is what? 5%?

He is a life long scout. I trust his late round pics as he probably sees value that us fans can't as we aren't at the rink. Intangibles matter in team sports j

That sounds way too high to me.

 

[CanaFan]

That sounds way too high to me.

Depends how you define "making" the NhL. Probably 1 or 2 picks a year that play a handful of games in their career. Would be much lower for "impactful" careers I suspect.

 

[iceburg]

That sounds way too high to me.

In the 10 drafts from 2001 to 2010, 35 7th round picks went on to play more than 100 games. That's a little over 10%.

In the 10 drafts from 1999 to 2008, 27 7th round picks went on to play more than 250 games. That's a little under 10%.

 

[me2]

I wouldn't say I'm cynical, Im actually quite high on many of our prospects. I just don't have faith in a player who couldn't establish himself as a decent player in the CHL.

If he does become a hard hitting fourth liner (or more) for us then I will happily eat crow.

If he becomes an above average fourth liner, better than replacement value.

 

[DadBod]

If Stewart never plays a single NHL game in his life he would achieve about as much as 99% of most 7th round picks. If he becomes a depth AHL player, he'd over achieve for a 7th round pick. So it's not that hard to be a little excited with all of these positive reviews so far, all things considered.

 

[iceburg]

If Stewart never plays a single NHL game in his life he would achieve about as much as 99% of most 7th round picks. If he becomes a depth AHL player, he'd over achieve for a 7th round pick. So it's not that hard to be a little excited with all of these positive reviews so far, all things considered.

81 of approximately 300 7th round draft picks from drafts between 2001 and 2010 played at least 1 NHL game. That's 27%...just sayin'

 

[Shareefruck]

In the 10 drafts from 2001 to 2010, 35 7th round picks went on to play more than 100 games. That's a little over 10%.

In the 10 drafts from 1999 to 2008, 27 7th round picks went on to play more than 250 games. That's a little under 10%.

Color me surprised.

But if anything that makes me push back even more-- if as much as 10% make it, you REALLY shouldn't be throwing those picks away.

 

[nameless1]

In the 10 drafts from 2001 to 2010, 35 7th round picks went on to play more than 100 games. That's a little over 10%.

In the 10 drafts from 1999 to 2008, 27 7th round picks went on to play more than 250 games. That's a little under 10%.

The draft got smaller during this time though.
Perhaps that affected the numbers...
Since each pick got more value...
Even just by a tiny bit?

 

[iceburg]

Color me surprised.

But if anything that makes me push back even more-- if as much as 10% make it, you REALLY shouldn't be throwing those picks away.

Yeah, the message still holds that 7th rounders are long shots. But the percentages are high enough that they still have value.

 

[me2]

Depends how you define "making" the NhL. Probably 1 or 2 picks a year that play a handful of games in their career. Would be much lower for "impactful" careers I suspect.

Pretty much.

Given replacement level players are cheap and free you need to draft better than that to gain anything of value.

A pass would be better than replacement level.

 

[iceburg]

The draft got smaller during this time though.
Perhaps that affected the numbers...
Since each pick got more value...
Even just by a tiny bit?

Perhaps. But I don't think it would affect it that much.

Out of curiousity I looked up Canucks 7th round picks during the 2001 to 2010 period. Two made it to playing at least 1 NHL game:
Jason King (2001)
Bliznak (2005)

Neither of these players played over 100 games. (King 59, Bliznak 6)

to your point, before the draft was shortened in 2005, they had two players beyond the 7th round that played at least 1 game in the NHL....
Hansen (2004 9th round)
McIver (2003 8th round)


So, realistically the Canucks have only had one pick during this period in the 7th orund or beyond that went on to have an established NHL career. Hansen 470 games and counting.

 

[HankNDank]

In the 10 drafts from 2001 to 2010, 35 7th round picks went on to play more than 100 games. That's a little over 10%.

In the 10 drafts from 1999 to 2008, 27 7th round picks went on to play more than 250 games. That's a little under 10%.

Perhaps. But I don't think it would affect it that much.

Out of curiousity I looked up Canucks 7th round picks during the 2001 to 2010 period. Two made it to playing at least 1 NHL game:
Jason King (2001)
Bliznak (2005)

Neither of these players played over 100 games. (King 59, Bliznak 6)

to your point, before the draft was shortened in 2005, they had two players beyond the 7th round that played at least 1 game in the NHL....
Hansen (2004 9th round)
McIver (2003 8th round)


So, realistically the Canucks have only had one pick during this period in the 7th orund or beyond that went on to have an established NHL career. Hansen 470 games and counting.

So looks like we are right in the 10% pocket.

 

[iceburg]

So looks like we are right in the 10% pocket.

And 3 of 10 playing at least 1 game is pretty close to the league average of 27%.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Unless there is a really solid player that has dropped, the later rounds I love picks like Jasek, or some Russian flying under the radar. Though I understand picks like Stewart too, slow developing large D men can turn into beasts when they are 26 or 27. Far harder to predict these guys then forwards.

 

[DL44]

Asked this in another thread but it got buried...

How many of our prospects are the captain or wear a letter for their Jr squads...

I know Cassels and Brisebois are captains... anyone else?

 

[a Fool]

Asked this in another thread but it got buried...

How many of our prospects are the captain or wear a letter for their Jr squads...

I know Cassels and Brisebois are captains... anyone else?

Shink was the captain in his draft year. Gaunce was captain for 2 years after he got drafted. Subban got an "A" last year for the Bulls. Bo was an alternate for London. Look for McCann to get a big role this yr in the Soo. I think that's it since 2012.