The Nylander Chronicles Part XXI - Legal Drinking Age in the US Version

[hector morrison]

No, marner is just a straight up better hockey player than nylander. And I love Willy.

Think so? They both bring different skills to the table! Each one is better at something ,over-all I like Marner and think his skill set is more effective,but not by much!

 

[gamer1035]

I'd rather give him a bridge deal than sign him for 7 million and only get 1 UFA year.

That rumored 4 years 20 million is a lower cap hit and he's still an rfa after.

 

[hector morrison]

It was a very nice gesture by him, he went out of his way to do it, I never forgot it.

Very Cool!

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

And I love Marner. I'm just saying that Marner gets preferential treatment from the fans and media for obvious reasons - and it's not because he's more talented than Nylander

It's exactly because of that. Marner is the key to our power play over this season and last. Marner will get more money because he deserves more money and will likely have a better season before RFA than Nylander did.

Your twisting yourself in circles to ignore the most obvious reason, Marner is the better player.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

4 year deal 5 AAV.
any more is overpay.

 

[613Leafer]

Nylander at age 19 = in AHL
Marner at age 19 = 61 point NHL rookie season

Nylander at age 20 = 61 point NHL rookie season
Marner at age 20 = 69 point NHL season (leading the team in points)

Nylander at age 21 = 61 point NHL season
Marner at age 21 = ??? We'll see at the end of the season. I'm quite sure it'll be solidly above 61 points.

Yes, Marner for his age is significantly more proven with a better trajectory than Nylander, deserves a bigger contract, and it has nothing to do with where he was born or bias. Pretty sure most Leaf fans are quite fond of Swedes given Sundin/Salming being two of the best players to ever play for us.

Players are also paid more for doing more at a younger age, and not just strictly based on point totals. There's a reason Arvidsson is a 4.25M player and Ehlers is a 6M player. So Marner hitting the NHL at an earlier age, and looking better than Nylander while doing it are both factors that lead to more $$.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I’ve had the chance to meet and talk to Kypreos. He really is a solid dude. Someone you’d like to have a beer with.

That said, he’s only above Dreger in terms of quality of the insider. (I don’t even consider John Shannon an insider)

3 best are McKenzie/Lebrun/Friedman.

 

[Advanced stats]

And I love Marner. I'm just saying that Marner gets preferential treatment from the fans and media for obvious reasons - and it's not because he's more talented than Nylander

But he is more talented. It's undeniable.

I don't disagree that he gets preferential treatment, however I do think it's deserved.

 

[Advanced stats]

But the savings are marginal, on the order of ~$50k per year.

Things will get tight in the future, but really that's nothing.

Don't know where you read that. Anything at this point will be savings of at least $150k per year which is notable.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

3 best are McKenzie/Lebrun/Friedman.

I personally have put Chris Johnston above Friedman but Bob and Lebrun are definitely there.

 

[Kiwi]

3 best are McKenzie/Lebrun/Friedman.

If their "speculating" I don't have a lot of faith in any of them, that includes the old "another GM told me" that gets thrown around as well like it's fact

Just tweet when it gets signed, after that no point in bothering

 

[LeafsHome]

Nylander at age 19 = in AHL
Marner at age 19 = 61 point NHL rookie season

Nylander at age 20 = 61 point NHL rookie season
Marner at age 20 = 69 point NHL season (leading the team in points)

Nylander at age 21 = 61 point NHL season
Marner at age 21 = ??? We'll see at the end of the season. I'm quite sure it'll be solidly above 61 points.

Yes, Marner for his age is significantly more proven with a better trajectory than Nylander, deserves a bigger contract, and it has nothing to do with where he was born or bias. Pretty sure most Leaf fans are quite fond of Swedes given Sundin/Salming being two of the best players to ever play for us.

Players are also paid more for doing more at a younger age, and not just strictly based on point totals. There's a reason Arvidsson is a 4.25M player and Ehlers is a 6M player. So Marner hitting the NHL at an earlier age, and looking better than Nylander while doing it are both factors that lead to more $$.

Marner rightfully got praised for his season last year. Even though Nylander is right there with him, all he gets is put on the trade bait board. He needs to start getting the respect as a top-tier player, barely scratching the surface of his true potential.

 

[Knightnight]

let me fix this so it shows full picture

Nylander at age 19 = in AHL
Marner at age 19 = 61 point NHL rookie season plus 4 pts in playoffs

Nylander at age 20 = 61 point NHL rookie season 4 pts in playoffs
Marner at age 20 = 69 point NHL season (leading the team in points) 9 pts in playoffs (lead team in playoffs)

Nylander at age 21 = 61 point NHL season 4 pts in playoffs
Marner at age 21 = ??? We'll see at the end of the season. I'm quite sure it'll be solidly above 61 points. Playoffs above 5 for Nlaynder TBD

 

[diceman934]

Marner rightfully got praised for his season last year. Even though Nylander is right there with him, all he gets is put on the trade bait board. He needs to start getting the respect as a top-tier player, barely scratching the surface of his true potential.

Here is last years stats in perspective without context.

Last year Willy produced at .730 ppg in regular season and playoff games.

Last year Marner produced at .876 ppg in regular season and playoff games.

There is a difference as clearly seen based on production. Never mind context. As it gets worse if you look from Jan onward.

Marner will get paid more based on better production like it or not.

I want both on the Leafs period.

 

[MyBudJT]

Marner rightfully got praised for his season last year. Even though Nylander is right there with him, all he gets is put on the trade bait board. He needs to start getting the respect as a top-tier player, barely scratching the surface of his true potential.

Nylander's potential is Marian Hossa
Marner's potential is a better defensively Patrick Kane...

 

[diceman934]

let me fix this so it shows full picture

Nylander at age 19 = in AHL
Marner at age 19 = 61 point NHL rookie season plus 4 pts in playoffs

Nylander at age 20 = 61 point NHL rookie season 4 pts in playoffs
Marner at age 20 = 69 point NHL season (leading the team in points) 9 pts in playoffs (lead team in playoffs)

Nylander at age 21 = 61 point NHL season 5 pts in playoffs
Marner at age 21 = ??? We'll see at the end of the season. I'm quite sure it'll be solidly above 61 points. Playoffs above 5 for Nlaynder TBD

Nylander only had 4 points in the playoffs last year.

 

[Morgs]

Player A:

159GP, 2.06 5v5 P/60, 1.52 5v5 P1/60, 7.49 PPP/60, 5.16 PPP1/60, +0.27 rel.CF%, +0.46 rel.xGF%, 54.88 ZSR, 28.96 ToIQoC.

Player B:

163 GP, 2.04 5v5 P/60, 1.46 P1/60, 6.59 PPP/60, 5.57 PPP1/60, +1.57 rel.CF%, +1.07 rel.xGF%, 51.23 ZSR, 29.16 ToIQoC.

At 5v5 you have two nearly identical point players with A being 42nd for forwards (over 1000 minutes the last two seasons) and B being 45th. With P1/60 (the far more valuable stat for forwards) [there happens to be about 20 players in between 1.46 and 1.52, so the rankings need to be taken with a bit of a grain of salt] A is 62nd and B is 81st. B has a clear edge in possession with both harder zone starts and competition.

Two elite elite PP players, with A being the 4th best in the NHL for forwards (based on PPP/60) and B being 14th best. This right here is the differentiator between their 8 points in two seasons. When going for P1 on the poweplay (which again, is far more valuable) it actually changes and player B is 5th in the league, and A is 9th. Is A really that much better on the PP? Probably when you delve even deeper, but B is no slouch.

Now, please tell me which one is worth "potential double digits" and the other needs to be traded for a top-4 RD. What is see is two almost identical players, with one being a Canadian who tries hard and the other a cerebral Swede who makes everything look effortless.

 

[SprDaVE]

It would be great if he can sign in the next 24h, get some practice time and be ready for Saturday night.

 

[Morgs]

Nylander's potential is Marian Hossa
Marner's potential is a better defensively Patrick Kane...

Nylander's is Tyler Seguin, tbh.

 

[Cor]

Friedman on Prime Time Sports:

- Said Kypreos isn't wrong that a 6 year deal is on the table.
- People aren't talking much about the situation. Both sides are trying to keep it as lowkey as possible.
- Meetings have been optimistic and both sides want to get something done
- Said he's also heard 6 years around 6.5-7M as Kyper, but doesn't know how much of an actual possibility it is
- Prior to the meeting in Switzerland, Leafs were offering 4 years, worth 19-20M.
- Both sides want to do 6 years, but not sure if the Leafs will go up to 7M
- Believes Toronto has offered 7 year deals as well.
- Said Nylander's camp wants to sign a long-term deal under the current CBA, rather than risking a short term deal and having to sign under whatever the next CBA is.
- Friedman said if he were Nylander he'd take a 2-3 year deal, and bet on himself, but an agent told him yesterday that no one knows what contracts will look like in the next CBA, so players want to sign long-term now.
- Said he believes if the deal is a 4 year deal, the caphit will be around 5M which will be the deal the Leafs have had on the table for a couple weeks


So, based on what he said, it's possible the Leafs/Nylander have a 4 year deal they are willing to do, but are still trying to get a 6 year deal done.

 

[Auston Powers]

But the savings are marginal, on the order of ~$50k per year.

Things will get tight in the future, but really that's nothing.

I don't think its nothing...

Let's take a $49,000,000 (I think most on both sides would be happy with 7 x 7M) contract and front load it...

2018-2019 - $11,000,000
2019-2020 - $8,000,000
2020-2021 - $6,000,000
2021-2022 - $6,000,000
2022-2023 - $6,000,000
2023-2024 - $6,000,000
2024-2025 - $6,000,000
Total = 49,000,000

(3 days ago) Cap Hit (2019-2020 to 2024-2025) = ($11,000,000 * 163/180 + $38,000,000) / 7 = 6,851,587
(2 days ago) Cap Hit (2019-2020 to 2024-2025) = ($11,000,000 * 162/180 + $38,000,000) / 7 = 6,842,857
(yesterday) Cap Hit (2019-2020 to 2024-2025) = ($11,000,000 * 161/180 + $38,000,000) / 7 = 6,834,126
(today) Cap Hit (2019-2020 to 2024-2025) = ($11,000,000 * 160/180 + $38,000,000) / 7 = 6,825,396
(today) Cap hit (2018-19) = $6,825,396 * 180 / 160 = $7,678,570
...
(December 1st) Cap Hit (2019-2020 to 2024-2025) = ($11,000,000 * 122/180 + $38,000,000) / 7 = 6,493,650


Based on today:
2018-2019 cap hit – $7,678,570
2019-2025 cap hit – $6,825,396


We have already saved ourselves almost $175K off of Nylander per year for the years 2019 until 2025 ($175K cap savings for 6 years)


For each passing day that Nylander remains unsigned we are saving almost 9K per year off of our cap hit . OR it is 9K more per year we can add on to his contract to make him happy. Depending on which way you want to look at it. It could be a savings of a 1/2 mil per year if we wait till Dec. 1st. That is significant. Heck 175K currently per year is significant.


Please if anyone finds something wrong here I will not be offended and please point it out as I would like to learn more.
I did the math myself so I might be off here or there but I believe this is legit.

I am using the following rules.
For RFA that has held out past the start of the season but before Dec 1:
NHL CBA FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

For NHL contract rules and their variance (regarding front loading and how much you can go up or down year by year):
So you want to sign an SPC

PS. It might be cap circumvention of some sort but I don't think it is intentional because ask any leaf fan how they are feeling about this situation. It can leave negative impressions with fans, team and management. It can easily change people's views.
Heck we care more about Nylander contract status than our GDT's and that is depressing.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Friedman on Prime Time Sports:

- Said Kypreos isn't wrong that a 6 year deal is on the table.
- People aren't talking much about the situation. Both sides are trying to keep it as lowkey as possible.
- Meetings have been optimistic and both sides want to get something done
- Said he's also heard 6 years around 6.5-7M as Kyper, but doesn't know how much of an actual possibility it is
- Prior to the meeting in Switzerland, Leafs were offering 4 years, worth 19-20M.
- Both sides want to do 6 years, but not sure if the Leafs will go up to 7M
- Believes Toronto has offered 7 year deals as well.
- Said Nylander's camp wants to sign a long-term deal under the current CBA, rather than risking a short term deal and having to sign under whatever the next CBA is.
- Friedman said if he were Nylander he'd take a 2-3 year deal, and bet on himself, but an agent told him yesterday that no one knows what contracts will look like in the next CBA, so players want to sign long-term now.
- Said he believes if the deal is a 4 year deal, the caphit will be around 5M which will be the deal the Leafs have had on the table for a couple weeks


So, based on what he said, it's possible the Leafs/Nylander have a 4 year deal they are willing to do, but are still trying to get a 6 year deal done.

Thanks for the summary Cor! This all sounds quite plausible. I hope it's all true, if it is then we're likely to celebrate his signing soon, possibly even long-term and then hopefully these trade Melander posts will slowly fade into nothingness.

 

[GoonieFace]

Pastrnak was a 34 goal 70 point winger before signing long term.

Nylander had 2 straight 60 point seasons.

For the simple sake of finding age/statistical comparables Pastrnak is in the conversation. He's my upper limit, but you're not talking long term deal without that contract being a comparable.

Which is all the more reason that $6 mill is the limit. Pastrnak will continue to produce at a 80pt and up level, I doubt Nylander will. This is the beauty of these comparison contracts, and you can forget about cap inflation, that is nonsense and should only apply to your top 1 or 2 guys, or 60 pt guys will be making $9 mil/ year in a few years.

The cap increasing should be to the benefit of the team so they can keep a core group of guys together and 4th best forwards are paid accordingly and not like top tier players.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Friedman on Prime Time Sports:

- Said Kypreos isn't wrong that a 6 year deal is on the table.
- People aren't talking much about the situation. Both sides are trying to keep it as lowkey as possible.
- Meetings have been optimistic and both sides want to get something done
- Said he's also heard 6 years around 6.5-7M as Kyper, but doesn't know how much of an actual possibility it is
- Prior to the meeting in Switzerland, Leafs were offering 4 years, worth 19-20M.
- Both sides want to do 6 years, but not sure if the Leafs will go up to 7M
- Believes Toronto has offered 7 year deals as well.
- Said Nylander's camp wants to sign a long-term deal under the current CBA, rather than risking a short term deal and having to sign under whatever the next CBA is.
- Friedman said if he were Nylander he'd take a 2-3 year deal, and bet on himself, but an agent told him yesterday that no one knows what contracts will look like in the next CBA, so players want to sign long-term now.
- Said he believes if the deal is a 4 year deal, the caphit will be around 5M which will be the deal the Leafs have had on the table for a couple weeks


So, based on what he said, it's possible the Leafs/Nylander have a 4 year deal they are willing to do, but are still trying to get a 6 year deal done.

Great summary.

If after all this time he signs Pasta's contract I will laugh so hard.

 

[KidLine93]

Elhers opted to take the safe bet rather than gamble. Pasta’s agent probably should have been fired for that contract, Boston got very lucky there.

Pasternak also plays with Bergeron and Marchand 99% of the time. That inflates his stats. Also there isn’t a guy making 11 million on the bruins roster for Pasternak to look at at say “yeah I’m worth about half as much as that guy”