The NJ Devils Goaltender Thread

[billingtons ghost]

can we please not do the Wins for goalies thing again

I'm begging you

No, let's judge them by SV% instead of how effective they are. That's clearly the right way to do it.

 

[Smitty426]

Funny we got into the playoffs last year with a non-starter.

Why are so many people on here against him being an average starter? I don’t get it.

And those same people still hold out hope for Cory. And we’re certain we wouldn’t make the playoffs last year with Kinkaid as the starter. We’re certain that he’d be off the team this season and we’re comfortable with having schneider as our starter. Why should I listen to these people about goalies?

Yeah that's the guy I'm looking for, L ast years guy! Now you got it.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Nobody is saying Kinkaid played like an average starter the 2nd half of last season. Most people would agree he was playing like a top-10 goalie. With that being said you can't combine a hot streak from last season with numbers from this season and conclude he's an average starting goalie. You could combine those numbers with Cory's this season and make him look like an average starter.

The most important quality for goalies are consistency and durability. Having a guy like Lundqvist or Rinne basically sets you at a position for 10-15 years. You don't have to worry about acquiring top goalie talent in the draft or free agency because you have guys you can rely on. You know what you're going to get out of them year in year out. There's a ton of goalies in the NHL who have had great years and fizzled out e.g. Hammond, Talbot, Allen, etc.

One thing I'm noticing this year is there are a lot of sub .900 goalies: Schneider, Ward, Graubauer, Bernier, Talbot, Mrazek, Jones, Luongo, Reimer, Allen, Kinkaid as notable names. I wonder if the new pads rule is exposing certain goaltenders more than others.

I would expect younger goalies to adapt quicker than older goalies to the equipment reductions. Most of those on your list are older.

 

[Triumph]

look at the number of starters. look where kinkaid ranks. right in the middle. just because quality of goaltending across the league is poor does not mean that being negative in gsaa means you are below average.

There are multiple goalies listed for some teams (and none listed for others). Greiss and Lehner, Halak and Rask, Smith and Rittich, Talbot and Koskinen, Reimer and Luongo - there's 35 goalies on this list. The 0 point is average, not average for a starter. Kinkaid is under 0, thus he is below average.

 

[MadDevil]

When we traded for Cory Schneider, he had played in 80 NHL games before he became a 1B on our team with Marty - and he didn't win the 1A job that year outright as people expected.

Keith played in 94 games before being annointed the #1 goalie job this year.

I'm not sure your argument about sample sets makes any sense whatsoever -

But lets go back to the idea that a #1 goalie is the one that is able to win a SV% battle on paper.

Your argument makes just as little sense considering Cory put up way better numbers as a backup before becoming a #1 than Kinkaid did before he became the #1.

It should also be noted that in Cory's last year with Vancouver he started 30 games compared to Luongo's 18, so he was more or less their starter that season.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

When we traded for Cory Schneider, he had played in 80 NHL games before he became a 1B on our team with Marty - and he didn't win the 1A job that year outright as people expected.

Keith played in 94 games before being annointed the #1 goalie job this year.

I'm not sure your argument about sample sets makes any sense whatsoever -

But lets go back to the idea that a #1 goalie is the one that is able to win a SV% battle on paper.

When we traded for Cory Schneider, he had played in 80 NHL games before he became a 1B on our team with Marty - and he didn't win the 1A job that year outright as people expected.

Keith played in 94 games before being annointed the #1 goalie job this year.

I'm not sure your argument about sample sets makes any sense whatsoever -

But lets go back to the idea that a #1 goalie is the one that is able to win a SV% battle on paper.

We traded for Cory when he was 26/27 and he had a way better resume than Kinkaid has ever had

But yeah sure totally the same thing

 

[haak84]

Nobody is saying Kinkaid played like an average starter the 2nd half of last season. Most people would agree he was playing like a top-10 goalie. With that being said you can't combine a hot streak from last season with numbers from this season and conclude he's an average starting goalie. You could combine those numbers with Cory's this season and make him look like an average starter.

The most important quality for goalies are consistency and durability. Having a guy like Lundqvist or Rinne basically sets you at a position for 10-15 years. You don't have to worry about acquiring top goalie talent in the draft or free agency because you have guys you can rely on. You know what you're going to get out of them year in year out. There's a ton of goalies in the NHL who have had great years and fizzled out e.g. Hammond, Talbot, Allen, etc.

One thing I'm noticing this year is there are a lot of sub .900 goalies: Schneider, Ward, Graubauer, Bernier, Talbot, Mrazek, Jones, Luongo, Reimer, Allen, Kinkaid as notable names. I wonder if the new pads rule is exposing certain goaltenders more than others.

you missed my point. this whole thread has.

kinkaid has played 60+ games since the start of 2018 and has posted his career average numbers. those numbers are the equivalent to an average starting goalie. he started out well (in the second half) last season and posted above average numbers. that regressed this season but over 60+ games it has evened out to his career averages. theres nothing to suggest that kinkaid is a below average starter since he has taken over as the starting goalie.

boarders can post “he sucks” “hes a backup” all they want but the numbers dont lie.

 

[Bleedred]

Work a deal with Pitt for Tristan Jarry. It looks like Ray drafted him while in Pitt. With Pens signing Casey DeSmith and Murray as the starter it answers MadDevils questions of youngish G's

Here's what SportsForecaster had to say:
Played 26 games last year. 14-6-2 .908% 2.77GAA (9-5-2 in WBS)
Tristan Jarry • #35 • G Status:In the minors Ht/Wt:6'2", 194 lbs. Born:Apr 29, 1995 (23 yrs) in Surrey, B.C. Experience:2 years Drafted by Pittsburgh in 2013 (2/44). Catches:L

Has already proven capable of backstopping a very strong squad at the junior level. His self-confidence brings out the best in his teammates, too. Hates to lose and shows it in his demeanor. Must add more stamina and bulk to his 6-2 frame in order to prove he can play the minutes worthy of a No. 1 goalkeeper in the NHL. Needs to show he can bounce back from adversity.

I ain't into Jarry, but I have said before that Jarry could be someone that Shero is interested in because of the connection and now they've locked up DeSmith for longer than I believe he'll be waiver ineligible for.

I think he may not be all that good. He was supposed to be the goalie of the future there, but it turned out to be Murray. He's likely available but for how much? If we went with a tandem of him and Campbell for a year, then him and Blackwood, maybe it can work.

His ceiling is certainly better than a guy like Kinkaid, but I could totally see him coming here next year and barely breaking .900% in save percentage and the continuation of the talk that it's the team and the goalies aren't that bad. Because I'm not sure Jarry really is anything more than ''Not that bad''.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I’m still waiting for clarity based on this chart that Andrei Vasilevskiy stinks. Clearly that’s the only determination.

 

[haak84]

I’m still waiting for clarity based on this chart that Andrei Vasilevskiy stinks. Clearly that’s the only determination.

theres a ton of resources on advanced goalie stats. vasilevskiy doesnt stick but he is not lighting the world on fire this season either. tampa is really really good and the expectation is it makes their goalies life easier.

The Big Cat, by the numbers: Some perspective on Andrei Vasilevskiy’s season

 

[Triumph]

you missed my point. this whole thread has.

kinkaid has played 60+ games since the start of 2018 and has posted his career average numbers. those numbers are the equivalent to an average starting goalie. he started out well (in the second half) last season and posted above average numbers. that regressed this season but over 60+ games it has evened out to his career averages. theres nothing to suggest that kinkaid is a below average starter since he has taken over as the starting goalie.

boarders can post “he sucks” “hes a backup” all they want but the numbers dont lie.

Yes, when you data snoop and don't take into account his horrendous start to 2017-18, he's an average starter. Trouble is he played those games and was bad. He's been an average goalie this season (at best) and was above-average last season; his career history is being average. Average means he's right between starter and backup and that's about where he lands - if he starts 60 games you're probably in trouble and if he starts 30 games you're fine.

 

[StvBroDan]

I was all for this until you said you can trash Marty / God if you want. CLOSE IT DOWN MODS

 

[MadDevil]

It'd kind of been a tale of two Keiths the last two seasons. He had a sub .900 through January last year, then a .920 through the end of the season, then back to sub .900 this year. Before that he was career .912, which I believe was about league average over that time span. To me that indicates he's better suited as a backup playing 20-25 games behind an established starter than to be a starter himself. Which is why I think calling him an average starter is being generous. I'd say he's more of an average backup.

 

[haak84]

It'd kind of been a tale of two Keiths the last two seasons. He had a sub .900 through January last year, then a .920 through the end of the season, then back to sub .900 this year. Before that he was career .912, which I believe was about league average over that time span. To me that indicates he's better suited as a backup playing 20-25 games behind an established starter than to be a starter himself. Which is why I think calling him an average starter is being generous. I'd say he's more of an average backup.

and i would disagree. a sub .900 through january last year? he was barely a starter. and when he was the whole board declared foul play because he was a backup. in fact since hes a starter hes had 1.5 bad months. so you are the one that is data snooping

why is he better suited as a backup when similar goalies at starting positions are underperforming?

 

[Bleedred]

Since January of last year (entire month of January 2018 up through his most recent game and regular season only) Kinkaid has a save percentage of .909%. This is his career save percentage. That’s removing his two playoff games, which flatter those numbers. Like how that playoff series flatters Cory’s numbers in the same time frame, they will make Keith’s even worse. Including that playoff series, he’s a .906% since the start of the 2018 calendar year.

Even if we forget those playoff games, he’s a .909% since then. The league average this year is a .908% currently, but last year it was .912% so I would say all things combined, he’s still slightly below average. Now if you cut out December of 2018 and January of 2019, those numbers might reflect average.

 

[MadDevil]

and i would disagree. a sub .900 through january last year? he was barely a starter. and when he was the whole board declared foul play because he was a backup. in fact since hes a starter hes had 1.5 bad months. so you are the one that is data snooping

why is he better suited as a backup when similar goalies at starting positions are underperforming?

He became a starter because Cory sucked. He performed well in that role for like 26 games. He's played 34 games this year with a sub .900 save percentage, which is well below average. You can't simply put 26 good games one season and 34 below average games the next season together and say he's an average starter. Even if you just use his 2018 numbers, they're below his own career averages as a backup (unless your argument is based solely on wins). There's more evidence, over the sample size of his career, to suggest he's a backup than a starter. I don't know why you're picking this particular hill to die on. Especially since you don't even want him back next year. We'll see how many teams line up to sign Kinkaid as a starter this summer. Hopefully we're not one of them.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Waive Cory

 

[bobilly45]

Is it bad when the Twitter guys have to do a breakdown of Cory's goals against in another loss.

 

[Bleedred]

Waive Cory

Is it bad when the Twitter guys have to do a breakdown of Cory's goals against in another loss.

That bad, huh?

I actually had things to do tonight, so I wasn't really following his game.

I'd rather sit him down and tell him we're shutting him down for the year and either buying him out or throwing him onto the LTIR at the end of the year in a closed door meeting.

Then announce that he's re-aggravated whatever it is and is back on the LTIR again. I feel like it would be less humiliating than waiving him, but tell him if he doesn't agree to it and is non-cooperative, then the only choice we have is to waive you. Let him go out without completely embarrassing himself.

 

[Bleedred]

Goal 1: Definitely a BAD goal. Went either through the arm and the body or just to the outside. It's a BAD goal and yet another opening minute goal/first few minute goal again. I bet Blandisi tried that on him in practice 20 times in 15-16 and scored on that shot and in that spot maybe once, twice tops on him back then.

Goal 2: Might have been bad, might not have been bad. Don't know. The screen didn't look like anything that definitely should have screened him. Maybe it deflected. Need more footage and looks and we don't have them.

Goal 3: Guy's ass was in his face. One of his teammates. Definitely a screen. No chance.

Goal 4: No chance.

Goal 5: Looked pretty stoppable to me.

 

[NJDevs26]

Needless to say this didn't get reponded to well based on his next three posts justifying it and he'd clearly been reading Cory bashing enough to feel compelled to do this in the first place.

 

[Fourier]

As an Oiler fan I am looking for reasonable ways for the Oilers to shed cap space that could also make sense for other teams. If Schenider is really done his buyout would be $12M. Would this make sense:

To NJ: Spooner, Manning

To Edmonton: Schneider 50% retained, 2019 4th

The Oilers agree to buyout Schneider.

Manning is at $2.25M for one year, Spooner is at $3.1M for 1 year. The buyout on Schneider would cost the Devils $1M per year for 6 years. This saves the Devils $650K in real money plus what ever would have been spent on their replacements if they keep either Manning or Spooner as depth guys. If they decide to buyout either or both players there is additional saving.

 

[Devils Dominion]

As an Oiler fan I am looking for reasonable ways for the Oilers to shed cap space that could also make sense for other teams. If Schenider is really done his buyout would be $12M. Would this make sense:

To NJ: Spooner, Manning

To Edmonton: Schneider 50% retained, 2019 4th

The Oilers agree to buyout Schneider.

Manning is at $2.25M for one year, Spooner is at $3.1M for 1 year. The buyout on Schneider would cost the Devils $1M per year for 6 years. This saves the Devils $650K in real money plus what ever would have been spent on their replacements if they keep either Manning or Spooner as depth guys. If they decide to buyout either or both players there is additional saving.

I'll keep the 4th and offer you Lovejoy

 

[Triumph]

As an Oiler fan I am looking for reasonable ways for the Oilers to shed cap space that could also make sense for other teams. If Schenider is really done his buyout would be $12M. Would this make sense:

To NJ: Spooner, Manning

To Edmonton: Schneider 50% retained, 2019 4th

The Oilers agree to buyout Schneider.

Manning is at $2.25M for one year, Spooner is at $3.1M for 1 year. The buyout on Schneider would cost the Devils $1M per year for 6 years. This saves the Devils $650K in real money plus what ever would have been spent on their replacements if they keep either Manning or Spooner as depth guys. If they decide to buyout either or both players there is additional saving.

I would do this in a second, but the problem is that Schneider has an NTC and I'd be surprised if he waived it go to Edmonton to be bought out. Frankly, I don't see the angle from Edmonton's POV - I guess they save a lot of money in year 2? But then in years 3-6 they're paying out $1M that never would've been on their books.

Here's how it breaks down for Edmonton -

Manning buyout: 916k, 667k
Spooner buyout: 1.023m, 1.023m

Buying out Schneider at 50% retained is $1m, so they save $1M in year 1, 700k in year 2, and then put $1M on their books for 4 seasons to do that?

I think they've got to get more than a 4th round pick back.

 

[haak84]

He became a starter because Cory sucked. He performed well in that role for like 26 games. He's played 34 games this year with a sub .900 save percentage, which is well below average. You can't simply put 26 good games one season and 34 below average games the next season together and say he's an average starter. Even if you just use his 2018 numbers, they're below his own career averages as a backup (unless your argument is based solely on wins). There's more evidence, over the sample size of his career, to suggest he's a backup than a starter. I don't know why you're picking this particular hill to die on. Especially since you don't even want him back next year. We'll see how many teams line up to sign Kinkaid as a starter this summer. Hopefully we're not one of them.

you simply can combine the 60 games hes had as a starter and come to the conclusion that hes average. especially when they are the same as his career averages. why is that so hard to understand? id say 20% of his starts have been awful. 50-60% average and 20% above average to very good. hes been fine and not worth some of the venom this board spits out. also thanks for your concern but im not dying on this hill because im in the right and time will show that. i like debating goalies.

you also say sub .900 which is a joke because hes 10 saves from being a .900 goalie.

my prediction is if hes the starter for the second half and the devils play decently than kinkaid will have a strong showing and be at his averages.

you never answered my question either. i am sure he will have teams interested in the offseason.