Lupul won't get traded until next off-season. His actual dollars for his contract drop to $3.75M, where this year they're $6.75M!
Bozak seems to be well-liked, so won't see him moved as he's not the kind of player a team would over-pay to get.
Phaneuf has also regained his form from his Calgary days. He's a very solid #2 defender, and worth the contract he's getting.
So those three vets will very likely remain here next season.
Adding to that, we're very likely going to see only 2-3 rookies promoted any given year, barring exceptional circumstances (which Marner might be one of these).
Finally, there's a saying in chess that to reach the level of master, you need 10,000 hours of practice/study. (To reach grandmaster level, it's 30,000). Management keeps saying they want our prospects to "master" the AHL. To me, that seems like what was happening in Detroit, where players need roughly 150 games in the AHL (or competitive men's leagues for our foreign prospects), to gain the required experience.
So you look at the list of players we have on the Marlies, and abroad, and here are the guys primed to see the ice next season: William Nylander, Andreas Johnson, Josh Leivo, Richard Panik, Matt Frattin, Scott Harrington, and Stuart Percy. Those are the guys who've logged the minutes to make the jump. Now of those, Leivo, Panik, and Frattin are on the bubble skill-wise, so I'll take Leivo for my roster, but it could be any one of those guys.
SO, with all that in mind, here is my projection for next season's roster.
van Riemsdyk ($4.25M) - Stamkos ($???) - Komarov ($2.95M)
Holland ($???) - Kadri ($???) - Johnson ($0.751M)
Bozak ($4.2M) - Nylander ($1.744M) - Lupul ($5.25M)
Leivo ($???)- Froese ($0.575M) - Winnik ($1.8M)
Gardiner ($4.05M) - Phaneuf ($7M)
Rielly ($???) - Percy ($???)
Marincin ($???) - Hunwick ($1.2M)
Bernier ($4.15M)
Sparks ($0.77M)
Total Cap Hit (players currently under contract): $38.69M
Projected Cap Max for 2016-17: $74.5M
Cap Space Available: $35.81M
Let's assume Stamkos eats up $10M, Rielly is going to get around $6M. Kadri about $5M. Holland $3M. Leivo, Marincin, and Percy all figure about $1.5M
So that would add up to $28.5M, which leaves a nice cushion for the Leafs, and we even fit under the cap if there is NO increase to the limit. Good cap management? What is this??
There's even room to re-sign Reimer and allow Sparks to continue to develop as the Marlies starting goalie.
Also I think we will likely sign Zaitsev, but he'll need to play a year in the AHL to earn the trust of Babcock/Shanahan.
Marner will *gasp* spend another year in the OHL...
Bozak could also find his way to the 4th line and allow room for a UFA signing (that isn't Stamkos).
Stamkos could also play wing on the top line, allowing Bozak to play C, then moving Komarov to the "Leivo" position.
