The Leafs will be the team that ends Canada’s cup drought.

[Horse McHindu]

The Leafs won’t win a cup with their current core.

If you look at the past ten years, the teams that have won cups all had their top core players at relatively cap friendly deals, which then gave these teams enough freed up cap space to invest in depth.

The Leafs have too much money tied up in their 4 best forwards. The Leafs are a good team, but I still can’t see them getting past Boston or Washington. After this season, it will get worse for the Leafs. They’ll have to extend Dermott, and will also likely lose one or both of Muzzin and Barrie.

The Leafs, over these next few years, will be the Pittsburgh Penguins of 2010-2015 in my opinion. Their cap issues will be solved once Auston Matthews “leaves” for Arizona when his contracts expires (which is my prediction).

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a Leafs fan by any stretch of the imagination. I do like their team though, and despite an annoying as hell fan base online they are quite loyal and are a grade A organization. Okay, yuck, moving on.

This team is trending in the right direction, and yes they have next to no defensive depth but barring injuries this team has what it takes to go all the way in the East this year. The Jets, Flames,Oilers, Habs, Canucks and Sens are not going to do it anytime soon. And the Leafs are Canada’s best bet at ending this drought, and I wager it’ll happen either this year or next.

Let’s take a look at the key pieces on their roster:
Matthews- elite #1C
Tavares- elite #1C
Marner- elite #1RW
Reilly- Bonafide #1D
Andersen- elite #1G
Nylander- bonafide top 6 player with PPG potential.

Key depth pieces:
Kapanen, Johnsson,Barrie, Muzzin, Kerfoot are all nice complimentary pieces. IMO they need a big deadline deal if possible to solidify a deep run as a legitimate threat. Something like Gaborik to the Kings in 2014, or in the Leafs case a gritty d-man to round out their top 6.

Barring injuries, the pieces are all there for a deep cup run within the next few years during their window. I think if they get past Boston the past couple years ( AKA Kadri doesn’t self destruct) they have at least a ECF appearance by now.

That team has a hell of a core, and again, if they all stay healthy they’re probably going to be the ones to end Canada’s drought.

EDIT: I almost forgot to mention Sheldon Keene as COACH. This guy has won literally everywhere he has coached, not a guaranteed success but he’s done really well there so far.

In the cap era it is important to give the best value contracts if you want to build a top contender. With the Leafs having $40.5 million in cap hit with 4 players it is hard to keep a top contender. For example Malkin, Crosby, Letang, and Guentzel are the Pens top 4 highest paid players and they have a $31.5 million cap hit. That means they have $9 million more cap space to build around those core 4 players than the Leafs do around there 4 highest paid players. I am sure many other teams have that advantage also. The Pens top 4 are as good or better than the Leafs but maybe some of those other teams don't have that top end type players.

Bottom line is I don't think they can build the depth needed to build a top contender with paying so much in 4 players. For example the Pens are near the top of the league and number one in point differential. They are doing this without Malkin, Crosby, Letang, and many other top players out for long periods of time this season. I don't think the Leafs could handle losing that much top end players and still be near the top. Heck they are behind the Pens now even with their top players. In the cap era it is how you spend your cap space and not just the top end. The Islanders have been much better since losing Tavares even though he was their best player.

Bottom line is whoever can use the cap space the best can build the top team. Of course the top team doesn't always win so they have a chance. Just not the best chance.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Lots of value contracts right now on the leafs:

Dermott Holl Barrie Kerfoot Kapanen Nylander Rielly Andersen Hutchinson Muzzin Spezza Moore Johnsson Hyman.

Hutchinson is 3-1 .921 sv% and a 2.50 GAA since Nov 20.

 

[NoName]

Ugh... this thread is the biggest jinx possible.

They could... could. A lot has to break right for that to happen. And honestly, although they are the strongest Canadian team at the moment, I wouldn’t put it past Winnipeg or possibly Calgary to claim a Cup this season either, and I think the Canucks will be contenders as soon as next season. Edmonton is always a wildcard but... McDavid.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

#2 leafs with number 1 being the very popular "maple leafs"

Do you think I wanna type out “Maple Leafs” when I can type out “Leafs” and have people know what I’m talking about? Work smarter, not harder.

Then again you’re also a Leaf fan where if I proposed Eichel for Kapanen you’d think the Sabres need to add.

 

[ARoggy94]

honestly, i feel they have a good chance as any to win the cup this year but the problem is its hockey. they're equal to probably the best five teams in the league and the margin above that group to the next group is razor thin.

theres too many good teams and the parity in the top 10 is just too close that predicting a stanley cup winner is all but impossible

 

[ARoggy94]

The Leafs won’t win a cup with their current core.

If you look at the past ten years, the teams that have won cups all had their top core players at relatively cap friendly deals, which then gave these teams enough freed up cap space to invest in depth.

The Leafs have too much money tied up in their 4 best forwards. The Leafs are a good team, but I still can’t see them getting past Boston or Washington. After this season, it will get worse for the Leafs. They’ll have to extend Dermott, and will also likely lose one or both of Muzzin and Barrie.

The Leafs, over these next few years, will be the Pittsburgh Penguins of 2010-2015 in my opinion. Their cap issues will be solved once Auston Matthews “leaves” for Arizona when his contracts expires (which is my prediction).

what is the difference between the pens 2015 and 2016 roster? they replaced perron with kessel..

the pens have been a championship level team since 2008, so have teams like the bruins, tampa, washington. there is no one way to win a cup, it takes just as much luck as it does skill

 

[SurferBroChad]

if they can find a way to get past boston or not play them i could see it.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Nope. Jets

 

[pomx]

How about they win a playoff round first before you talk? Just a fanboy thread here.

 

[Horse McHindu]

what is the difference between the pens 2015 and 2016 roster? they replaced perron with kessel..

the pens have been a championship level team since 2008, so have teams like the bruins, tampa, washington. there is no one way to win a cup, it takes just as much luck as it does skill

Over the past 10 years (and counting) the formula has been:

Cost controlled elite talent (core players at relatively cap friendly deals) + depth = championships.

Look at the cap hits to all of those Chicago and LA teams that won cups. Boston and St. Louis are other examples. Even teams like Pittsburgh and Washington won with cost controlled elite spent once the salary cap went up and those once “inappropriately high” cap hits took up a more acceptable percentage of the cap.

As of this writing, no team has won a Stanley Cul with 10 million dollar cap hit players, and the Leafs now have three of those players. Can this trend change? Sure. I just don’t think it’s likely. I’ll happily eat crow if I’m wrong.

 

[JaegerDice]

Not even close to as good as that team. Only injuries could stop them.

They were an OT goal away from losing in the 1st round.

 

[Marshy71]

They have more elite talent at the moment, but things can change quick in this league. No gaurantees that they have the team capable of winning it all.

The east is stacked, they will have to go through some damn good teams just to make the final. And a number of those playoff teams are more rounded than the leafs

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Lots of value contracts right now on the leafs:

Dermott Holl Barrie Kerfoot Kapanen Nylander Rielly Andersen Hutchinson Muzzin Spezza Moore Johnsson Hyman.

Hutchinson is 3-1 .921 sv% and a 2.50 GAA since Nov 20.

Really??? Nylander a bargain? Hutchinson sample size.

$40.5 million cap hit for Mathews, Tavares, Marner, and Nylander. $9 million more than Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Guentzel which are the Pens highest 4 cap hits. That is a big advantage to build around and why the Pens still have the highest point differential in the league despite several top players injured for big parts of the season one after the other.

As far as pointing to your bargains, they don't look better than any other teams. Everyone has players like that. Pens have this season players like Rust, Marino, Kahun, Pettersson, Jarry, McCann, and others performing way above cap hit. That and Pens paying so much less for it's 4 highest paid players compared to Leafs allows for much better depth.

 

[foggyvisor]

They were supposed to win the cup last year, this year was supposed to be their second cup.

 

[HellebuyckOurSaviour]

Im sorry but Toronto will never win the cup for a while. The Jets had the best chance 2 years ago and we screwed that. With how much money Toronto has in their lineup from top to bottom and how much Andersen is used they wont get past the 2nd round. We as Canadians should just make a super team and have 1 elite team play in the stanley cup finals to have a shot at winning the cup.

 

[CanucksMJL]

They were an OT goal away from losing in the 1st round.

Yes, but again missing their 3rd line shutdown centre Manny Malhotra due to injury. Manny was a critical piece that allowed Kesler to play fewer hard defensive minutes (which caught up to him come the finals) and Manny was a faceoff savant, it seemed like he didn't lose.

 

[Morlu]

Canada’s second hottest team during the last seven games. They look real good.

Who is this imaginary team that is 1st in the last seven?

 

[Morlu]

Really??? Nylander a bargain? Hutchinson sample size.

$40.5 million cap hit for Mathews, Tavares, Marner, and Nylander. $9 million more than Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Guentzel which are the Pens highest 4 cap hits. That is a big advantage to build around and why the Pens still have the highest point differential in the league despite several top players injured for big parts of the season one after the other.

As far as pointing to your bargains, they don't look better than any other teams. Everyone has players like that. Pens have this season players like Rust, Marino, Kahun, Pettersson, Jarry, McCann, and others performing way above cap hit. That and Pens paying so much less for it's 4 highest paid players compared to Leafs allows for much better depth.

Nylander contract isn’t an overpay. It’s not a “bargain” but it’s a good deal.

 

[hockeyisgud]

Who is this imaginary team that is 1st in the last seven?

Van has won 7 in a row

 

[winnipegger]

It seems like Babcock really was a problem? I was skeptical but the team looks very different than it did before. Leafs play high tempo and somewhat risky hockey but it's working for them.

 

[Morlu]

Van has won 7 in a row

I stand corrected! I shouldn’t have bit on the last 7 comment >_<.

 

[bert]

Not gonna quote you because that’s too much to delete to get to your edit, but Keefe has only won on two levels. And I don’t put any stock in to junior B championships. If he’s learned anything since junior A (aka coaching the Greyhounds) then great. Leafs have a chance. However all of his teams have been uber-skilled and he hasn’t had a chance to do his coaching skills at the highest level until this year.

Also let’s all practice Santeria so the Leafs never win. This place will be insufferable then.

He never coached Jr B so its a good thing you dont put stock into it. But he is the only one to coach a Jr A national championship out of the CJHL in the history of the league. If you dont know how hard that is to do maybe spend 5 minutes reading into it.

 

[Krewe]

Do you see them winning a playoff series this year?

Not against Boston or Tampa. If they get the WC Opponent then sure

 

[Palio]

These aren’t your Babock Maple Leafs. Don’t worry, some of you will find out soon enough