The Kessel Trade (redux)

[Lisa Needs Braces]

We got Kappy out of the trade directly.

Indirectly, the 1st got us Andersen and not having Kessel got us Matthews in the draft. Even if Kappy busted, you still make this trade 10 times out of 10. Quite often its the indirect consequences of a trade that make the most difference.

I'm also a big Kessel fan and am glad he got 2 cups out of this.

 

[Stephen]

This is the thing about these hindsight reviews.
What if the Leafs had traded Kessel away and wound up drafting 30th overall? Or 31st, whatever the situation was.
Add to that the Leafs had an 80% chance of not getting Matthews.

This is not a hindsight review or sheer luck at all because the sequence of events following the Kessel deal is exactly what a lot of us were talking needing to happen.

When the Leafs went over the cliff once again in 2015 and narrowly missed the McDavid lottery, a lot of us on these exact boards were saying we needed to try again with Matthews, to hit on the 2015 first round pick to go with Nylander, and to get rid of Kessel and Phaneuf so their Nonis approved contracts wouldn't interfere with the next era, whether that was going after Stamkos in 2016 or signing some of the young players to come.

Kessel was coming off a dreadful end of 2015 and had 7 years left on an $8 million per year contract. If the Leafs hadn't moved decisively to rid themselves of that contract and if Kessel didn't have the perfect opportunity to win 2x cups in successive years in Pittsburgh he could very well have lost more value and become an unmovable contract. Whatever he made of himself is amazing for him, but it was also extremely important for the Leafs to 1) get rid of that contract and 2) get futures to go with the rebuild.

Literally all the boxes were checked off. We got a franchise goalie and a possible 30 goal scorer who is only 22. We got everything we wanted in the tank season, the lottery and draft in 2016, we got the superstar coach.Three short years later we are sitting 2nd overall in the NHL at Christmas and poised to contend for a championship.

I'm not really sure what a lot of the naysayers are looking for. Maybe we could have not retained that dollar amount, but it all worked out according to what we needed to see happen.

 

[pcruz]

This is not a hindsight review or sheer luck at all because the sequence of events following the Kessel deal is exactly what a lot of us were talking needing to happen.

When the Leafs went over the cliff once again in 2015 and narrowly missed the McDavid lottery, a lot of us on these exact boards were saying we needed to try again with Matthews, to hit on the 2015 first round pick to go with Nylander, and to get rid of Kessel and Phaneuf so their Nonis approved contracts wouldn't interfere with the next era, whether that was going after Stamkos in 2016 or signing some of the young players to come.

Kessel was coming off a dreadful end of 2015 and had 7 years left on an $8 million per year contract. If the Leafs hadn't moved decisively to rid themselves of that contract and if Kessel didn't have the perfect opportunity to win 2x cups in successive years in Pittsburgh he could very well have lost more value and become an unmovable contract. Whatever he made of himself is amazing for him, but it was also extremely important for the Leafs to 1) get rid of that contract and 2) get futures to go with the rebuild.

Literally all the boxes were checked off. We got a franchise goalie and a possible 30 goal scorer who is only 22. We got everything we wanted in the tank season, the lottery and draft in 2016, we got the superstar coach.Three short years later we are sitting 2nd overall in the NHL at Christmas and poised to contend for a championship.

I'm not really sure what a lot of the naysayers are looking for. Maybe we could have not retained that dollar amount, but it all worked out according to what we needed to see happen.

Really?
Well, why didn't all of you just say that we needed to win the Draft Lottery the year before we did and we could have had McDavid. Did you all just not try thinking hard enough for us to win it that year?

The fact that we got Matthews is pure, unadulterated luck.
The fact that we got Tavares is coincidental with us already having Matthews and Marner and it looking like we have a very bright future.

Andersen is a very good goalie. Top 15, maybe top 10. He was a backup in LA just like Bernier was.
Imagine we had traded a 1st and a 3rd draft pick for Jonathan "Mandela" Bernier.
I wonder just how much more valuable that 30th overall pick was over the 31st overall pick. You know, the very next draft selection was also Toronto's.

I wonder if the Leafs had offered #31 in 2016 and a 2nd round pick in 2017 would the Ducks have said no.

 

[ChickenMcNugget]

This is not a hindsight review or sheer luck at all because the sequence of events following the Kessel deal is exactly what a lot of us were talking needing to happen.

When the Leafs went over the cliff once again in 2015 and narrowly missed the McDavid lottery, a lot of us on these exact boards were saying we needed to try again with Matthews, to hit on the 2015 first round pick to go with Nylander, and to get rid of Kessel and Phaneuf so their Nonis approved contracts wouldn't interfere with the next era, whether that was going after Stamkos in 2016 or signing some of the young players to come.

Kessel was coming off a dreadful end of 2015 and had 7 years left on an $8 million per year contract. If the Leafs hadn't moved decisively to rid themselves of that contract and if Kessel didn't have the perfect opportunity to win 2x cups in successive years in Pittsburgh he could very well have lost more value and become an unmovable contract. Whatever he made of himself is amazing for him, but it was also extremely important for the Leafs to 1) get rid of that contract and 2) get futures to go with the rebuild.

Literally all the boxes were checked off. We got a franchise goalie and a possible 30 goal scorer who is only 22. We got everything we wanted in the tank season, the lottery and draft in 2016, we got the superstar coach.Three short years later we are sitting 2nd overall in the NHL at Christmas and poised to contend for a championship.

I'm not really sure what a lot of the naysayers are looking for. Maybe we could have not retained that dollar amount, but it all worked out according to what we needed to see happen.

Look, i get the idea that we needed to move on from Kessel, There was a perceived need for a culture change. a new identity as a team so we had to move on from Kessel. Thats Fine.

What I hate is the value that was obtained from trading him. Look at what Kessel comparables are since the trade:

14 Tavares	274	122	140	262
15 Mackinnon	265	98	160	258
16 Kessel	282	97	161	258
17 Seguin	273	110	145	255
18 Burns	284	72	181	253

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Do you think any of these players could be had for 6.8M/yr by trading a 1st and an A prospect. Its completely ridiculous that most people would be happy with that return.

Also for some reason people keep bringing up that trading Kessel netted Anderson which doesnt make sense at all. That's like saying we trade Marner for a 2nd and then we trade that 2nd to get McDavid. Those are 2 different trades, even though we may have improved in the end, we could have had much much more. Another 1st, a good young roster player..

Same is true for the Kessel trade, we should have been able to get much more let alone retain and give up a 2nd.

 

[TDotMassive]

This trade was win-win. Leafs got Kappy and Freddy, that alone is enough of a haul to justify Kessel. Still got Durzi and a couple lesser assets coming up. Pens got Kessel and won back-to-back cups.

This is one of the few true win-win trades in recent history.

 

[TDotMassive]

Look, i get the idea that we needed to move on from Kessel, There was a perceived need for a culture change. a new identity as a team so we had to move on from Kessel. Thats Fine.

What I hate is the value that was obtained from trading him. Look at what Kessel comparables are since the trade:

14 Tavares	274	122	140	262
15 Mackinnon	265	98	160	258
16 Kessel	282	97	161	258
17 Seguin	273	110	145	255
18 Burns	284	72	181	253

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Do you think any of these players could be had for 6.8M/yr by trading a 1st and an A prospect. Its completely ridiculous that most people would be happy with that return.

Also for some reason people keep bringing up that trading Kessel netted Anderson which doesnt make sense at all. That's like saying we trade Marner for a 2nd and then we trade that 2nd to get McDavid. Those are 2 different trades, even though we may have improved in the end, we could have had much much more. Another 1st, a good young roster player..

Same is true for the Kessel trade, we should have been able to get much more let alone retain and give up a 2nd.

That's some revisionist s@#t. Kessel was not viewed in this light at the time of the trade, he was a fat hot-dog eating loser that couldn't win and was a distraction in the dressing room. Remember?

 

[Stephen]

Look, i get the idea that we needed to move on from Kessel, There was a perceived need for a culture change. a new identity as a team so we had to move on from Kessel. Thats Fine.

What I hate is the value that was obtained from trading him. Look at what Kessel comparables are since the trade:

14 Tavares	274	122	140	262
15 Mackinnon	265	98	160	258
16 Kessel	282	97	161	258
17 Seguin	273	110	145	255
18 Burns	284	72	181	253

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Do you think any of these players could be had for 6.8M/yr by trading a 1st and an A prospect. Its completely ridiculous that most people would be happy with that return.

Also for some reason people keep bringing up that trading Kessel netted Anderson which doesnt make sense at all. That's like saying we trade Marner for a 2nd and then we trade that 2nd to get McDavid. Those are 2 different trades, even though we may have improved in the end, we could have had much much more. Another 1st, a good young roster player..

Same is true for the Kessel trade, we should have been able to get much more let alone retain and give up a 2nd.

Again, what did you think we would get back? Just seems like an open ended nitpick.

 

[pcruz]

That's some revisionist s@#t. Kessel was not viewed in this light at the time of the trade, he was a fat hot-dog eating loser that couldn't win and was a distraction in the dressing room. Remember?

He was viewed as such by the uninformed masses who believe professionals like Dave Feschuck, Damien Cox and Steve Simmons.

We've had so many of these kinds of players over the years that don't align with Cox and Simmons' views on the game and they do nothing but bash them.
Occasionally, these guys harp on such useless bum players like Mats Sundin (Franchise leader in goals and points), Larry Murphy (4 total Stanley Cups including 2 after being run out of Toronto), etc.
Phil Kessel was just yet another name to add to that list.

Make no mistake, Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares are not immune from this treatment as we got a glimpse of with Nylander towards the end of his stalemate with the club.

 

[lebdafor norris]

You can be happy with the outcome but the trade was still underwhelming. We also should be judging the trade on its merits, what we did with the assets in the future aren’t really relevant. If you trade a third round pick that becomes a great player, that doesn’t suddenly make the third round pick more valuable in the past.

That being said the trade was the right move.

I believe at the time of the trade Pens made it clear that Maaata and Pouliot were off the table so the Leafs had to settle with Kapanen and Harrington instead. Funny thing is, Dumoulin ended up being the best out of the Pens highly touted young Dmen at the time and from what I remember he was also the less hyped of the 4. Can you imagine how great it would have been if the Leafs snatched him off the Pens instead of Harrington, still I cant complain with the overall result.

 

[pcruz]

Look, i get the idea that we needed to move on from Kessel, There was a perceived need for a culture change. a new identity as a team so we had to move on from Kessel. Thats Fine.

What I hate is the value that was obtained from trading him. Look at what Kessel comparables are since the trade:

14 Tavares	274	122	140	262
15 Mackinnon	265	98	160	258
16 Kessel	282	97	161	258
17 Seguin	273	110	145	255
18 Burns	284	72	181	253

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Do you think any of these players could be had for 6.8M/yr by trading a 1st and an A prospect. Its completely ridiculous that most people would be happy with that return.

Also for some reason people keep bringing up that trading Kessel netted Anderson which doesnt make sense at all. That's like saying we trade Marner for a 2nd and then we trade that 2nd to get McDavid. Those are 2 different trades, even though we may have improved in the end, we could have had much much more. Another 1st, a good young roster player..

Same is true for the Kessel trade, we should have been able to get much more let alone retain and give up a 2nd.

To add to this, since the acquisition of Phil Kessel by the Maple Leafs until today's date, this is the overall NHL player's statistics leaders:

Pos	Name	GP	G	A	Pts
1	Crosby	607	295	465	760
2	Ovechkin	714	417	329	746
3	Kane	698	283	447	730
4	Giroux	729	217	475	692
5	Backstrom	686	183	500	683
6	Tavares	706	296	367	663
7	Malkin	578	278	374	652
8	Stamkos	622	345	316	661
9	Kessel	728	278	374	652

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In fact, since coming into the league and playing 3rd and 4th line minutes in his first 2 seasons, Kessel sits 13th in total league scoring from game #1 of 2006/2007 season until Boxing Day 2018.
He sits comfortably behind Daniel Sedin, Eric Staal and Henrik Zetterberg and ahead of Corey Perry, Jason Spezza, and Patrick Marleau.

Yeah, the 31 year old, is about to hit 800 career points sometime this season. Basically, if he plays out his contract, he's all but guaranteed to hit 1000 points with 2 Stanley Cups.
Those are indeed run of the mill numbers for the NHL. Not even worth mentioning right?

Also, for those mentioning Andersen, yes the 1st round pick was used, but that was draft selection #30 in the draft, the Leafs also owned draft selection #31. I'd venture a wild guess and say that Anaheim would be just as amenable to drafting 31st as they were to drafting 30th. That's an absolutely moot point.....or as Joey would say "moo point".

 

[Ash35]

Everyone knew we needed to tank. I would have literally traded Kessel for nothing at the time. Kapanen and Anderson are a massive win for us. If we kept Kessel we wouldn't have had Matthews and if we kept him and still finished last he would have proved himself as having zero value. Having Kessel as your centerpiece is Like having Nylander as your Main guy. You are going to be a bad team. He is and always was a complimentary piece. One that had to go as we turned that page. Sure we got lucky but every building team needs luck. We are way better of now and I would do that trade over and over again.

 

[Antropovsky]

Landed a #1 goalie and Kapanen.... great deal, considering the baggage that kessel was accumulating in Toronto.

Pretty bad that people are complaining about this deal.

Its a great package for a unstable asset that just signed a long term deal.

Key points of Pittsburgh being his perfect destination:

• Pittsburgh has reportedly shopped kessel on more than one occasion since acquiring him. Pretty telling considering his success he’s had offensively in Pittsburgh.

• Malkin is always ragging on kessel for lazy plays. Watched a clip where Colors guys showed Malkin being visibly angry with kessel on the bench, after lazy shifts. Apparently this is a common theme. Shows you that kessel needs a player with star power to motivate him to work hard. This isn’t something a lot of teams could offer. Kessel is a loose cannon when he considers himself the top dog.

We traded him while his value was at an all time low, but it was necessary and the value we got in return is an unexpected surprise. Overjoyed with the return.

 

[Morbo]

The real winner was Kessel. Went from a (at the time) loser organization to a contender, won 2 Cups and humiliated his critics completely.

 

[Tmart335]

The fellow who mentioned that Babcock didn't want Kessel didn't quote a source and I hope he doesn't get into any board trouble for saying that.

But I will say this. I will not name my source, but I was told the exact same thing. . My story is slightly different. Kessel and Babcock according to my raven parchment, did have a quick interface, and lets just say, both parties sorta laughed and agreed that it would not be a good marriage.

So yeah, its worked out nicely for both teams. Kessel is an amazing player, but he is not a guy who likes being driven by coaches. Apparently. And his present coach and Babcock, like to drive .

So, its amazing Kessel has survived as well as he has, so far in the Burg. Great for him.

You're calling out a poster for not quoting a source, while you make a similar statement without a source lol

 

[pcruz]

Landed a #1 goalie and Kapanen.... great deal, considering the baggage that kessel was accumulating in Toronto.

Pretty bad that people are complaining about this deal.

Its a great package for a unstable asset that just signed a long term deal.

Key points of Pittsburgh being his perfect destination:

• Pittsburgh has reportedly shopped kessel on more than one occasion since acquiring him. Pretty telling considering his success he’s had offensively in Pittsburgh.

• Malkin is always ragging on kessel for lazy plays. Watched a clip where Colors guys showed Malkin being visibly angry with kessel on the bench, after lazy shifts. Apparently this is a common theme. Shows you that kessel needs a player with star power to motivate him to work hard. This isn’t something a lot of teams could offer. Kessel is a loose cannon when he considers himself the top dog.

We traded him while his value was at an all time low, but it was necessary and the value we got in return is an unexpected surprise. Overjoyed with the return.

Quite honestly shows just how much you pay attention.
During his tenure in Toronto, Phil was paired with Bozak and one of Lupul or JvR. Which of those 3 were star power players that turned this lazy Kessel into a 35+ goal - 80+ point guy?
During his first season in Pittsburgh, Kessel played with Bonino and Hagelin. That's where the 3rd line dominated the playoffs and was known as the HBK line. Any idea what team Bonino is even playing for today? I haven't a clue.

 

[Ash35]

Quite honestly shows just how much you pay attention.
During his tenure in Toronto, Phil was paired with Bozak and one of Lupul or JvR. Which of those 3 were star power players that turned this lazy Kessel into a 35+ goal - 80+ point guy?
During his first season in Pittsburgh, Kessel played with Bonino and Hagelin. That's where the 3rd line dominated the playoffs and was known as the HBK line. Any idea what team Bonino is even playing for today? I haven't a clue.

Yes he did great against 3rd line competition. Lupul was also a point a game player that season. He was actually good with us Just got hurt all the time. Both were terrible defensively. Fact is if we don't trade Kessel this team looks a lot different now.

 

[TDotMassive]

He was viewed as such by the uninformed masses who believe professionals like Dave Feschuck, Damien Cox and Steve Simmons.

We've had so many of these kinds of players over the years that don't align with Cox and Simmons' views on the game and they do nothing but bash them.
Occasionally, these guys harp on such useless bum players like Mats Sundin (Franchise leader in goals and points), Larry Murphy (4 total Stanley Cups including 2 after being run out of Toronto), etc.
Phil Kessel was just yet another name to add to that list.

Make no mistake, Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares are not immune from this treatment as we got a glimpse of with Nylander towards the end of his stalemate with the club.

I agree, I was being semi-sarcastic. There was some legitimate view that Kessel wasn't a winner though, certainly few thought of him as worth an $8m contract or play such a huge role in a cup run.

 

[Its not your fault]

I agree with your general point. I think however, if you're over the cap for every game, that game counts as an automatic forfeit and a loss. I may be wrong though. I thought the NBA was the only league where you can go over the cap and pay a penalty to get past it.

I believe Chicago had a hard time iceing 18 players a game for a bit a few years ago.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I like. what written in post 52. It's difficult to go back in time, but the fact is Kessel has morphed into poor to average NHLer for the Leafs. Don't look exclusively at his points...since he seemed to play ALL PP minutes. His play and effort was absent., so in effect his trade was 8m cap dump. (with retention a 6.8m cap dump).
I'm happy for Phil that he landed in the perfect scenario for him in Pittsburg. He certainly became a much better hockey player with the Pens compare to what he doing for the Leafs (I don't really blame him for his indifferent play for the Leafs).
Pens did well....won Cups with a very good Kessel.
Leafs had to get rid of the discouraged Kessel, and to create future cap space. It's hard to measure what the Leafs actually got in the deal due to all the intangibles., but with Kessel...the Leafs may have been a few point ahead in the standing and that might have meant no Matthews or Marner, no Kapanen maybe no Andersen.

 

[ottomaddox]

So given that we’re all jubilant over Kapanen at the moment, let’s take a look at the trade that brung ‘im. Just to see where we stand.

As a preface, I’ve been a fan of Kapanen from day one based on what Shanahan said of him, and reading about Shanahan consulting with Kapanen’s father prior to the draft where he ultimately took Nylander (he also consulted with Michael prior to that selection).

I was also not a fan of the Kessel trade at the time because I felt we sold low. It was Kessel’s worst statistical year and we were bringing in Babcock who could’ve gotten Kessel to perform and likely secured us a better package.

So I’ll try and be impartial but that’s where I’m at personally as I start this review.


July 1, 2015

RW Phil Kessel (27), 6-years $6.8M AAV (after $1.2M retained by Toronto), UFA
RW Tyler Biggs (22), 1-year $1.1M AAV, RFA (technically no cap hit as he was waiver eligible)
LHD Tim Erixon (24), 2-years $0.6M AAV, UFA
PIT 2nd round pick 2016


RW Kasperi Kapanen (18), 5-years* $0.894M AAV, RFA (*entry level contract)
LHD Scott Harrington (22), 1-year $0.896M AAV, RFA
Nick Spaling (26), 1-year $3.264M AAV, UFA
PIT 1st round pick 2016
NJD 3rd round pick 2016



The draft picks were converted as above.
Toronto would go on to trade the Pens 1st along with SJS’s 2nd 2017 (Maxime Comtois) for Frederik Andersen.

The Leafs selected James Greenway with the NJD’s 3rd round pick. Here’s a write-up from August 2017. It’s older but it’s a pretty complete analysis.

Pittsburgh selected Kasper Bjorkqvist with their 2nd round pick. Here’s a recent write-up about him. Seems like a good prospect.

So the jury is still out on the draft picks, and we don’t need to care much about Sam Steel, the Ducks’ selection with the 1st, since the Kapanen trade proper was between Pittsburgh and the Leafs.

So, Harrington played a grand total of 15 games for the Leafs before being overtaken by other prospects. Injuries were a factor. He was traded along with future considerations in June 2016 for Kerby Rychel.

• Rychel in turn was dealt to Montreal in February 2018 along with Rinat Valiev and the Leafs’ 2nd 2018 (Jacob Olofsson, centre) for Tomas Plekanec and Kyle Baun. Plekanec was mercurial and while he was a help in the playoffs especially during Kadri’s suspension, failed to help the Leafs past the Bruins. He re-signed with Montreal as a UFA before retiring this season. Kyle Baun was not re-signed by the Leafs and currently plays for Belfast in the UK.

Nick Spaling played only 35 games for us in 2015-16, before being packaged at the trade deadline with Roman Polak for Raffi Torres, SJS 2nd 2017 and SJS 2nd 2018 picks.

• Torres is relatively meaningless. He never was meant to play for Toronto and didn’t. The 2017 2nd was used to complete the Andersen trade from the Ducks, while the 2018 2nd was used to select Sean Durzi. Durzi was injured early on this year but looks to be a significant prospect if he continues to improve on a tremendous D+1 season.

So, based on solid asset management, the Leafs turned Kessel, Polak, Erixon, Biggs, and a 2nd round pick into a $1.2M cap penalty, Kapanen, Andersen, Durzi, and Greenway.

Not a bad haul!

So what are everyone’s thoughts right now?

Would you do it again?

Does Pittsburgh winning back-to-back Stanley Cups (with Kessel almost winning the Conn Smythe in the 2nd year) make a difference in how you evaluate this deal?

I appreciate all your hard work, but this notion that Kessel almost won the Conn Smythe is a Leaf Bashing narrative created by fans of other teams. He played well in the playoffs for PIT, but he was never going to knock Crosby out of the running. Kessel was acceptional, but Crosby was dominant.

 

[ottomaddox]

Like others have said it was essentially Phil Kessel for Kapanen & Andersen.

Leafs came out very well.

This is completely false though. Andersen didn't play for PIT. We have no idea we were going to land Andersen with that pick.

 

[indigobuffalo]

This is completely false though. Andersen didn't play for PIT. We have no idea we were going to land Andersen with that pick.

It’s not false though. When evaluating a trade you can look at the entire trade “tree” and evaluate it that way.

 

[ottomaddox]

It’s not false though. When evaluating a trade you can look at the entire trade “tree” and evaluate it that way.

No.

Because this just turns into a hindsight discussion more than anything.

We knew that Kessel was good and a good playoff performer at the time of the trade.

We didn't know we were going to get Andersen at all.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Now is when the trade really matters. When we are now finally contending. Even if it’s just between Kessel vs Kapanen, Kapanen at age 22 onward is probably more valuable than Kessel in his 30s if Kessel starts to slow down any year now.

At the time, I thought the return was underwhelming. But the trade worked out for us fantastically. We got Matthews as a result of trading away Kessel, and now Kapanen is a key contributor on our team. The potential for Kapanen was always there, but now he’s actually hitting it.

 

[LeafFever]

People always want to know "Who Won", but this is truly a trade where it worked out great for both sides.