Goalies just worry me because a guy like Vasilevsky is looked at as basically the best case scenario.
No NHL games until his D+3 year. Not a starter until his D+5 year and final year of his ELC. Tampa was super lucky they signed him to a three year bridge instead of two since I think it's fair to say most bridges are just two years and they would have ended up with just three years of him as a starter until he got an absolute albatross of a contract.
Sure, you're getting a good goalie, but you won't come close to seeing the same value as a contributing forward on an ELC.
Vasilevsky is the base case scenario which is why it's useful to benchmark Askarov to him (the NHL elite of a strong Russian pipeline of NHL goalies over the past decade). First a correction, Vasilevsky played both NHL regular season and playoff games at his 20 year age, not draft+3.
Askarov's development success is along the same trajectory playing well above his age including professional games against men in the VHL and KHL one-year before being NHL draft eligible.
At age 16, Askarov was the only starter under the age of 17 in the MHL with a .921 sv%. In the MHL’s 11-year existence Askarov was the only goalie to start 30+ games in a season at under 17.
Professional League Competition:
At 17-year-old Askarov was the youngest goalie in VHL history to appear in more than nine games and also finished with a 12-3-3 mark. He posed a .920 save percentage and let in 2.45 GAA per game. Askarov was named VHL Prospect of the Week for the month of November. He is the only goalie under the age of 18 in the leagues history to play more than 10 games at that level.
In Askarov’s one KHL start, he only allowed two goals against and .920 save percentage becoming the youngest overall of four 17 year old goalies to suit up in the KHL (notable others: Ilya Sorokin and Ilya Samsonov). Of note this is the second best professional league in the world which Askarov has now graduated to in his NHL draft eligible year.
International Tournament Play:
Askarov played at a high level in 4/6 of the international tournaments he has taken part in over the last two years including best goalie in the WHC-17, the WJC-18, the WJAC-19 and the 2019 Hlinka. In the 2018 Hlinka he also played well. The outlier was a below expectation 2020 World Juniors where he was the youngest goaltender in the tournament.
Now if you can get a player with this level of elite potential and a track record of success in professional leagues and in world peer competition in mid first round, it is a qualified risk well worth taking. And no, I don't expect the Oilers to take him - this franchise has sewered the best drafting position of the past decade so there are many holes that need to be filled in a pretty mediocre pipeline. But Askarov has the pedigree and body of work to overcome the Russian and positional bias that knock him to likely be available pick 10-14. His results compare favourable to Vasilevsky who faced down the doubters previously.
General rule, don't take goalies in the first round. There are exceptions and this tender is one of them. A team with a better prospect pipelines and possibly more than one first round pick will likely pick this player thereby hedging some of the risk. Too bad, pick right and prospectively solve a long standing positional issue for a decade.
