Prospect Info: The Juvenile 2020 Draft Thread

[Zaddy]

Man, can the draft get here already. I feel like all discussions, both here and on the main boards, are just going in circles at this point.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Man, can the draft get here already. I feel like all discussions, both here and on the main boards, are just going in circles at this point.

One more week until trades and rumours begin

 

[McDoused]

Man, can the draft get here already. I feel like all discussions, both here and on the main boards, are just going in circles at this point.

I think this is a pretty fascinating draft. Most of these prospects havent played since March but have seen their stock rise or drop considerably over the past 6 months.

 

[McDNicks17]

Tampa drafted an elite player despite Russian and positional bias. He's won a Vezina and also nominated for one before the age of twenty five. The contract (signed during peak goalie bubble days of the Brobosky signing) covers peak years performance and ends at 33, built with big signing bonus that enables trade or buy-out options. Great players gonna get paid and the most important position at the game is no exception. Stability and elite performance behind an extended Cup level team has value. As does not chasing goaltending in the draft or trying to bet on the recycle goalie market year after year. The Oilers keep burning picks on the next Tyler Bunz and bet money and term on a thirty something KHLer. Imagine having your goaltending position fixed for a decade...

Back to Askarov he's got the pedigree, track record of results in high quality professional leagues and elite peer tournament play, he more than covers the bet as BPA at the 14th pick in this NHL draft. High risk, high reward. Not playing the goalie card in the first round is the right play for overwhelmingly most of the time. Until sometimes it's not.

I guess it comes down to how you view goalies.

Is Vasi elite or is he benefiting from playing behind an elite team? Statistically speaking, it's the latter. Over the past three seasons, Dubnyk and Rask are the only 100+ game goalies with an easier workload according to expected goals against.

Every team with consistent goaltending has the same thing in common. They're consistently great defensive teams. If you want to improve your goaltending, you have to become one of those teams. Trying to fix your goaltending with a goalie is how you end like Florida with Bobrovsky.

That's why I don't see a ton of value in Askarov. Ultimately, he'll only be as good as the players in front of him and unless that improves significantly(Koskinen had the second highest xGA/60 last year for guys who played 35+ games), it won't be good.

 

[McDNicks17]

Seems like Mukhamadullin is another guy who might see a bump.

Lots of question marks around his offense, but he's got 3 points in 8 games so far in the KHL.

 

[BarDownBobo]

I think this is a pretty fascinating draft. Most of these prospects havent played since March but have seen their stock rise or drop considerably over the past 6 months.

I wonder how much of a boost some of the Euro prospects might get since some of them will have another month of viewings before the draft actually happens. Definitely feels like they might be at an advantage, could find some later sleepers amongst the NA guys.

 

[PKSpecialist]

As I said, Marc-Andre Fleury's athleticism, but with a control I've never seen in a goalie with that athleticism.

 

[BarDownBobo]

As I said, Marc-Andre Fleury's athleticism, but with a control I've never seen in a goalie with that athleticism.

It’s going to be so disappointing to see another team call his name in a couple weeks. I’m still holding out hope but expecting the worst.

 

[FanOfSadTeam]

29/30 today for Askarov, and made this really nice save.

If he keeps this up, we won't even get a chance to draft him.

 

[Stud Muffin]

It’s going to be so disappointing to see another team call his name in a couple weeks. I’m still holding out hope but expecting the worst.

Ya he’s likely going to be gone unless Holland decides to trade up.

 

[PKSpecialist]

It’s going to be so disappointing to see another team call his name in a couple weeks. I’m still holding out hope but expecting the worst.

Ya he’s likely going to be gone unless Holland decides to trade up.

I'm actually ok with him going before us in the draft. I don't want us to use assets to move up for him. But if he's there at our draft spot, we best not pass. If he goes before us, there are lots of needs and lots of good players to be had.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I guess it comes down to how you view goalies.

Is Vasi elite or is he benefiting from playing behind an elite team? Statistically speaking, it's the latter. Over the past three seasons, Dubnyk and Rask are the only 100+ game goalies with an easier workload according to expected goals against.

Every team with consistent goaltending has the same thing in common. They're consistently great defensive teams. If you want to improve your goaltending, you have to become one of those teams. Trying to fix your goaltending with a goalie is how you end like Florida with Bobrovsky.

That's why I don't see a ton of value in Askarov. Ultimately, he'll only be as good as the players in front of him and unless that improves significantly(Koskinen had the second highest xGA/60 last year for guys who played 35+ games), it won't be good.

Chicken or egg ... can't it be both?

Goaltending will always go hand in glove with the quality of talent in front of them. But if you don't stop the puck goaltending is everything. Vasilevsky has been an elite goaltender at all levels of his development and continues to be on a deep, great team. Tampa is probably the model for a rebuild which includes high picks for a franchise centreman, defender and a first round pick to secure elite goaltending. Strength down the middle which they have augmented through very good drafting. Looking at the quality of teams, the top ten regular season teams have first round goaltenders among their battery mates in Boston, Tampa Bay, Washington, and Vegas. Pretty high second round picks on St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Pittsburg. Colorado, Dallas and Edmonton are the outliers (though Koskinen was an ancient early second rounder). It's not like miracle seventh round wonders have taken over the world.

Jumping to Koskinen (a $4.5 million/year salvage job), he was solid in a platoon system which is an efficient model especially for team's that lack great goaltenders. Come money time in the playoffs that still shifts somewhat to a #1 goaltender and we saw Koskinen falter. The Oilers were horribad with own zone play but Koskinen didn't elevate his game either. It's why I think Holland and Tippett have likely concluded they need to upgrade goaltender with a 1A who can ultimately take the reins come money time.

The issue and matter at hand is Akarov whose pedigree and development path closely follows Russian goaltenders that are NHL starters including one, Vasilevsky, who the league has placed in rare company with two Vezina nominations (one win) before 25 years old. It is difficult to imagine the draft has ten or fifteen best players available who can match the quality of competition faced including rare company playing in the second best professional league in the world. Following trends, Russia has been a goaltender factory with pipeline producing quality NHL tenders. Askarov ranks with all of them and fits among the best players available in this draft despite bias.

Little likelihood he'll become an Oiler - there's too many holes.

 

[McDoused]

I'm still not sure someone "falls" to us.

It's very realistic that we have to choose between guys like Mercer, Holloway, Zary, Lapierre, Gunler, Guhle and Schneider.

I'd love to see a poll for who Oiler fans would pick out of those guys.

 

[nafrelio]

I'm still not sure someone "falls" to us.

It's very realistic that we have to choose between guys like Mercer, Holloway, Zary and Schneider.

I'd love to see a poll for who Oiler fans would pick out of those guys.

I know. Perhaps it's just wishful thinking.

I have also been considering if the Oilers will draft different "kinds" of players, even if a Quinn or a Jarvis fall. We don't have a player like Holloway, or Zary, for example. You need a variety of players to win - we have a lot of relatively soft, offense-first/pass first players in our top 6. We don't have a defensive specialist, a bulldog, a pest, or a face off master. We don't have a one-shot sniper apart from Drai. We need more complimentary players for what we have.

I like Quinn because of his shot, but maybe Seth Jarvis is too much like Yamamoto for Holland. We've seen rumours that the Oilers like Holloway, but maybe that was before we dropped to #14. Nevertheless, we could use a player like him. We missed out on Tkachuk, for example, because we were going for more skill/speed.

I really want a player to compliment McDavid - management needs to decide what that type of player looks like. I'd like someone who was smart in the defensive end (I think 97 is weaker there), good in the corners (97 is weak there too), and a wicked release/one-timer. I like Quinn, but even if a player like Foerster keeps working on his skating (I wouldn't bet against this guy), he could be the perfect player.

 

[Llamamoto]

Seems like Mukhamadullin is another guy who might see a bump.

Lots of question marks around his offense, but he's got 3 points in 8 games so far in the KHL.

My main concern with Mukhmadulin is his defensive play and hockey IQ, not so much his offensive ability.

I'm still not sure someone "falls" to us.

It's very realistic that we have to choose between guys like Mercer, Holloway, Zary, Lapierre, Gunler, Guhle and Schneider.

I'd love to see a poll for who Oiler fans would pick out of those guys.

Out of those guys I'd pick Zary.

 

[BarDownBobo]

I'm actually ok with him going before us in the draft. I don't want us to use assets to move up for him. But if he's there at our draft spot, we best not pass. If he goes before us, there are lots of needs and lots of good players to be had.

If he goes top 10 then it is what it is, but if it gets to 11 or especially Florida at 12 I’d be really interested in seeing what they would want to flip picks.

 

[Hynh]

I know. Perhaps it's just wishful thinking.

I have also been considering if the Oilers will draft different "kinds" of players, even if a Quinn or a Jarvis fall. We don't have a player like Holloway, or Zary, for example. You need a variety of players to win - we have a lot of relatively soft, offense-first/pass first players in our top 6. We don't have a defensive specialist, a bulldog, a pest, or a face off master. We don't have a one-shot sniper apart from Drai. We need more complimentary players for what we have.

I like Quinn because of his shot, but maybe Seth Jarvis is too much like Yamamoto for Holland. We've seen rumours that the Oilers like Holloway, but maybe that was before we dropped to #14. Nevertheless, we could use a player like him. We missed out on Tkachuk, for example, because we were going for more skill/speed.

I really want a player to compliment McDavid - management needs to decide what that type of player looks like. I'd like someone who was smart in the defensive end (I think 97 is weaker there), good in the corners (97 is weak there too), and a wicked release/one-timer. I like Quinn, but even if a player like Foerster keeps working on his skating (I wouldn't bet against this guy), he could be the perfect player.

I think the type of player that complements McDavid best is smart and talented. The draft isn't where you go shopping for specific player types.

 

[oil Leaks]

 

[Paralyzer008]

For The Athletic staff mock draft today, Lowetide took Dylan Holloway for us.

I'm not big on that.

 

[oil Leaks]

For The Athletic staff mock draft today, Lowetide took Dylan Holloway for us.

I'm not big on that.

Who did he pass on?

 

[McTonyBrar]

If Askarov is available, i don't see how we pass on him. Would be huge If we could fix the goaltending for a long time. Askarov and Konovalov would be really nice to have coming in.

I'd be very happy with Jarvis/Quinn but i don't think they will be around

There is a higher chance Jarvis, Quinn and Holloway are around than Askarov. I think Canes will take him

 

[LMFAO]

Soooo what's the consensus player HFOilers wanna pick at 14th?

 

[Paralyzer008]

Who did he pass on?

Passed on Mercer, Reichel & Zary.

Askarov, Jarvis, Quinn were all gone.

 

[McTonyBrar]

I'm still not sure someone "falls" to us.

It's very realistic that we have to choose between guys like Mercer, Holloway, Zary, Lapierre, Gunler, Guhle and Schneider.

I'd love to see a poll for who Oiler fans would pick out of those guys.

Gunler Zary or Holloway all day every out of that group. We don't need more Dmen. Only Schneider is interesting and Lapierre we can trade down for. Mercer... is I don't know. There's just something about him that's not appealing. Maybe its because he's good at everything in the game but not great at any parts of the game

 

[McTonyBrar]

For The Athletic staff mock draft today, Lowetide took Dylan Holloway for us.

I'm not big on that.

I love Holloway but Lowetide is also not connected lol