Prospect Info: The Juvenile 2020 Draft Thread

[Hoparazzi]

I don't think Price goes 1OA over Crosby

Yup, my bad.

 

[Hoparazzi]

I don't think Price goes 1OA over Crosby

I guess the follow-up would be how many 1st OAs since ‘05 would a team draft over Price? A few for sure

 

[Zaddy]

If Askarov is 5-7 years out is that significant compared to the level of forward at d typically available at 14? Heck, if Pulju makes it this season it’ll be his draft +4, and he was (nearly) a consensus top 3.

Here’s the players picked at 14 dating back to ‘05 and how many years it took them to make the bigs (I used 50 games as “making it”—subjective, I know):

2005 Pokulok - bust
2006 Grabner -4 years
2007 Shattenkirk - 5 years
2008 Boychuk - bust
2009 Kulikov - draft year
2010 Schwartz -4 years
2011 Oleksiak - 7 years
2012 Girgensens - 2 years
2013 Morrisey - 4 years
2014 Honka - hasn’t made it in 6 years
2015 DeBrusk - 3 years
2016 McAvoy - 3 years
2017 Foote - hasn’t made it in first 3 post-draft seasons
2018 Farabee - 2 years

More players than not took >/= 4 years to make bigs. If Oilers draft Askarov and he takes 5 is that really a big deal?

For comparison, here’s the tendies drafted top 15 since ‘05:

2019 Knight (14th) it’s early
2012 Vasilevskiy (*19th)- 5 years
2010 Campbell (11th) - 9 years
2006 Bernier (11th) - 8 years
2005 Price (5th) - 3 years

So there is risk Askarov (should he make it) takes >5 years, but 3/5 goalies listed above are premier to franchise level talents and the early returns on Knight are promising. Both Vasilevskiy and Price would go first OA in redrafts. When a team could nab a top 5 equivalent, franchise-altering tender at 14th OA—gotta be hard to pass.

Probably moot.

Nah fam. I actually made a list like this the other day in a post but deleted it, but I'll post it here again. The point here is that you look specifically at forwards taking at #14 or the closest pick to it. Defensemen take longer, sometimes as long as goalies.

2018: Farabee, already an NHLer in draft +2
2017: No F at #14, closest is Suzuki who is a top6 forward in draft +3
2016: No F at #14, closest is Kunin who already has 131 NHL GP.
2015: DeBrusk, 43 points in his draft +3 season, and this is excluding 1st liners Barzal and Connor who was ranked ahead of DeBrusk on every list and should've been taken there.
2014: No F at #14, closest is Vrana and Larkin. Vrana took a bit of time (full-time NHLer in draft +4) but Larkin had 45 points in draft +2 season.

So realistically if you're drafting a forward you're looking at them being at least middle-six NHLers by year 3, in contrast to a goalie which takes 5-6 years to be a starter on average. Those extra couple of years are IMO too much when you have McDavid and Draisaitl in their prime on your team.

 

[Zaddy]

Maybe this is a dumb question but why does everyone care so much about projecting when a guy will make the jump to NHL?

Holland is the last guy to rush prospects to the NHL.

 

[PKSpecialist]

I get that ppl keep thinking that these two are going to leave if we don’t start winning, but just take the BPA. There will be trades, there is going to be another expansion draft. Lots of ways to reshape a roster. The best thing to do through the draft is get the most valuable asset possible. If they become a key contributor at some poi t, great. If they become trade bait for the piece we need, great. If they become so valuable that they force us to trade another piece from a team strength, great. At some point, we need a #1 goalie. At some point, we need a stud Defenceman, and at some point we are going to need scoring wingers.

let’s say 3 years down the road that both McDavid and Draisaitl want out, which I highly doubt considering the progression of this team, but let’s assume for a moment. As much as I love these players, life goes on. They don’t get to leave for nothing. We will be able to trade both of them for a kings ransom. By having the best assets in place through the draft, that’s how we put ourselves in the best position moving forward, regardless of position.

 

[Zaddy]

I get that ppl keep thinking that these two are going to leave if we don’t start winning, but just take the BPA. There will be trades, there is going to be another expansion draft. Lots of ways to reshape a roster. The best thing to do through the draft is get the most valuable asset possible. If they become a key contributor at some poi t, great. If they become trade bait for the piece we need, great. If they become so valuable that they force us to trade another piece from a team strength, great. At some point, we need a #1 goalie. At some point, we need a stud Defenceman, and at some point we are going to need scoring wingers.

let’s say 3 years down the road that both McDavid and Draisaitl want out, which I highly doubt considering the progression of this team, but let’s assume for a moment. As much as I love these players, life goes on. They don’t get to leave for nothing. We will be able to trade both of them for a kings ransom. By having the best assets in place through the draft, that’s how we put ourselves in the best position moving forward, regardless of position.

I'm not saying they will want out, I'm saying you want to get a player that can contribute sooner rather than later. We're not a rebuilding team. And personally I'm not a fan of using a 1st round pick on a goalie anyway when you can get them for cheap more or less every year.

Anton Khudobin has put up two terrific seasons for Dallas and is in the Stanley Cup final this year. He was signed for free on a two year deal worth $2.5M per. Isles goalie Varlamov was signed as a free agent. Vegas goalie Lehner was signed as a free agent. Vasilevski is the only goalie of the final four this season that was drafted by his own team. Blues had Binnington last year come out of nowhere (a 3rd round pick way back in 2011). Pens had Murray come out of nowhere (a 3rd round pick in 2012).

It's just pointless to waste a pick on a goalie in the 1st round when you can get a forward coming in and making an impact within 3 years. How valuable hasn't Yamamoto's contribution been to the Oilers? He actually made our top6 somewhat legit and allowed us to separate McDavid and Draisaitl.

Imagine getting another Yamamoto-level player this year. Then suddenly our top6 is pretty decent. And a forward is generally going to give you a lot more value on an ELC than a goalie or defenseman, so it really helps with the cap situation too.

 

[Stud Muffin]

I'm not saying they will want out, I'm saying you want to get a player that can contribute sooner rather than later. We're not a rebuilding team. And personally I'm not a fan of using a 1st round pick on a goalie anyway when you can get them for cheap more or less every year.

Anton Khudobin has put up two terrific seasons for Dallas and is in the Stanley Cup final this year. He was signed for free on a two year deal worth $2.5M per. Isles goalie Varlamov was signed as a free agent. Vegas goalie Lehner was signed as a free agent. Vasilevski is the only goalie of the final four this season that was drafted by his own team. Blues had Binnington last year come out of nowhere (a 3rd round pick way back in 2011). Pens had Murray come out of nowhere (a 3rd round pick in 2012).

It's just pointless to waste a pick on a goalie in the 1st round when you can get a forward coming in and making an impact within 3 years. How valuable hasn't Yamamoto's contribution been to the Oilers? He actually made our top6 somewhat legit and allowed us to separate McDavid and Draisaitl.

If you look at all the those guys other than Vasilevsky, they are all missing one key thing that people look for in a goalie. Longevity if they are hot for a season that’s cool but what be are projecting Askarov to be is a .920 or better year after year which is extremely valuable. I have no issue waiting for Askarov because at some point he’s going to back bone a team to multiple long playoff runs and if that’s with us than I’m happy McDavid and Draisaitl could be gone and if we have that success than It’ll be a worthwhile pick.

 

[Stud Muffin]

If you look at all the those guys other than Vasilevsky, they are all missing one key thing that people look for in a goalie. Longevity if they are hot for a season that’s cool but what be are projecting Askarov to be is a .920 or better year after year which is extremely valuable. I have no issue waiting for Askarov because at some point he’s going to back bone a team to multiple long playoff runs and if that’s with us than I’m happy McDavid and Draisaitl could be gone and if we have that success than It’ll be a worthwhile pick.

Also it was Nuge’s play that allowed us to split up Draisaitl and McDavid not Yamomoto’s.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Lucas Raymond scores in Frolunda's season opener. Laser of a shot.



Imagine drafting both Stutzle and Raymond.

 

[Aerchon]

Maybe this is a dumb question but why does everyone care so much about projecting when a guy will make the jump to NHL?

Holland is the last guy to rush prospects to the NHL.

Nah fam. I actually made a list like this the other day in a post but deleted it, but I'll post it here again. The point here is that you look specifically at forwards taking at #14 or the closest pick to it. Defensemen take longer, sometimes as long as goalies.

2018: Farabee, already an NHLer in draft +2
2017: No F at #14, closest is Suzuki who is a top6 forward in draft +3
2016: No F at #14, closest is Kunin who already has 131 NHL GP.
2015: DeBrusk, 43 points in his draft +3 season, and this is excluding 1st liners Barzal and Connor who was ranked ahead of DeBrusk on every list and should've been taken there.
2014: No F at #14, closest is Vrana and Larkin. Vrana took a bit of time (full-time NHLer in draft +4) but Larkin had 45 points in draft +2 season.

So realistically if you're drafting a forward you're looking at them being at least middle-six NHLers by year 3, in contrast to a goalie which takes 5-6 years to be a starter on average. Those extra couple of years are IMO too much when you have McDavid and Draisaitl in their prime on your team.

There is hypothetical window in the last couple years of McDrai contracts where the Oilers "should" have a tier 1 true cup contender.

After deals like Neal expire and various buyouts/retention. Plus where relative cap hits of 12.5 million are far less destructive to making a competitive team in a cap world.

Really puts how absolutely terrible Holland was for drafting a long term project defenseman like Broberg is into perspective. Last year and this year should have been high talent low risk forward picks to maximize the chance those picks could aid a cap strapped team going into a contender phase.

 

[Hoparazzi]

Nah fam. I actually made a list like this the other day in a post but deleted it, but I'll post it here again. The point here is that you look specifically at forwards taking at #14 or the closest pick to it. Defensemen take longer, sometimes as long as goalies.

2018: Farabee, already an NHLer in draft +2
2017: No F at #14, closest is Suzuki who is a top6 forward in draft +3
2016: No F at #14, closest is Kunin who already has 131 NHL GP.
2015: DeBrusk, 43 points in his draft +3 season, and this is excluding 1st liners Barzal and Connor who was ranked ahead of DeBrusk on every list and should've been taken there.
2014: No F at #14, closest is Vrana and Larkin. Vrana took a bit of time (full-time NHLer in draft +4) but Larkin had 45 points in draft +2 season.

So realistically if you're drafting a forward you're looking at them being at least middle-six NHLers by year 3, in contrast to a goalie which takes 5-6 years to be a starter on average. Those extra couple of years are IMO too much when you have McDavid and Draisaitl in their prime on your team.

I think all things being equal you’re right. Except the difference is in quality. Grabner, Schwartz took 4 years. Boychuk was a bust. So at 14 you’re getting a very good (but not elite-level) forward prospect that’s going to take 3-5 years or an elite goalie that’s going to take 3-5 years. I think all of Lundell, Quinn, Jarvis are gone by 14. So you’re looking at Mercer, Zary, Holloway. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to project, say Zary, taking 3-5 years and Askarov taking the same.

 

[McDoused]

McDavid is signed for 6 years and Draisaitl for 5. Unless they are demanding a trade that's plenty of time to develop a guy.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The template Vasilevski was in North America at 20 and NHL games under his belt at that age. Samsonov in a deep Washington prospect pipeline was an AHL 1A with 37 games at 21 and an emerging NHL backup the following year and posed to take over top goaltending spot on a Cup contending team. The Russian fear factor is overstated and the development track of his peer level predecessors peaks out early as number one goalies including one at Vezina level ability. Some reports have Askarov as the best of the Russian (and general) goalie pipeline in the past fifteen years.

Now a franchise can opt to continually crack fill recycling goalies throughout the league. You can also throw multiple late round lottery tickets over multiple draft years hoping for magic ... picks that might be better directed at later round positional selections which have at least equal or better chances of striking gold. This latter crapshoot just burns picks on more inefficient draft hoping.

The development path of an elite tender as we've seen with high end Russians can be realistic and shorter as their talent dictates. From the Oilers backyard Carter Hart is already a #1 goaltender while the organization waits on a tweener project Tyler Benson to prove himself as a depth NHL player. In this case, who would you rather have - a young, emergent #1 goalie or a depth AHL/NHL forward whose impact is likely going to be significantly less than a 43 game starting goaltender. The Flyers happen to also be a model franchise that spun around for years and years with revolving goalies.

 

[McDoused]

You would hope that Askarov at 14 would be ahead of the average development curve.

I think hes here in 3 years pushing for a starting job. Just in time for some bad contracts to expire.

 

[Zaddy]

McDavid is signed for 6 years and Draisaitl for 5. Unless they are demanding a trade that's plenty of time to develop a guy.

Again I'm not saying they're gonna leave. I'm saying you don't want to waste some of their best years by waiting for a goalie. We need forward help now, and preferably a young guy on an ELC. A goalie that's good enough to win a Cup can be found in free agency or through trade.

 

[Zaddy]

The template Vasilevski was in North America at 20 and NHL games under his belt at that age. Samsonov in a deep Washington prospect pipeline was an AHL 1A with 37 games at 21 and an emerging NHL backup the following year and posed to take over top goaltending spot on a Cup contending team. The Russian fear factor is overstated and the development track of his peer level predecessors peaks out early as number one goalies including one at Vezina level ability. Some reports have Askarov as the best of the Russian (and general) goalie pipeline in the past fifteen years.

Now a franchise can opt to continually crack fill recycling goalies throughout the league. You can also throw multiple late round lottery tickets over multiple draft years hoping for magic ... picks that might be better directed at later round positional selections which have at least equal or better chances of striking gold. This latter crapshoot just burns picks on more inefficient draft hoping.

The development path of an elite tender as we've seen with high end Russians can be realistic and shorter as their talent dictates. From the Oilers backyard Carter Hart is already a #1 goaltender while the organization waits on a tweener project Tyler Benson to prove himself as a depth NHL player. In this case, who would you rather have - a young, emergent #1 goalie or a depth AHL/NHL forward whose impact is likely going to be significantly less than a 43 game starting goaltender. The Flyers happen to also be a model franchise that spun around for years and years with revolving goalies.

a) Carter Hart is an exception
b) These guys were picked in the 2nd round

At #14 you can get a forward who can have an impact in 2-3 years.

 

[Zaddy]

Anyway I don't hate Askarov, I just don't think it's a good value pick for the Oilers to make at this stage. We still only have four top6 forwards and there's not much in the pipeline that could alleviate that. Signing forwards in free agency is really expensive and a poor strategy most of the time, so where is the help going to come from? Trading a defenseman? Which one and for whom? What trade could you pull off that strengthens the forwards but doesn't weaken the already poor blueline? It's so much easier to find a good starting goaltender through trade or FA (that doesn't cost an arm and a leg) than the equivalent for a forward. That's why I'm against taking him.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

a) Carter Hart is an exception
b) These guys were picked in the 2nd round

At #14 you can get a forward who can have an impact in 2-3 years.

Maybe...

Both Russian goalies mentioned were first rounders that have easily covered their draft positions despite Russian and positional bias. They covered the development path as mentioned. Askarov is viewed to be on their level and for some trained, professional scouting eyes better.

Hart is an example of the Oilers draft philosophy missing as they still wait for a fallen first round projected forward to make the NHL club. Meanwhile Philadelphia, a team noted for a turnstile goaltending approach, has a secured #1 tender. Holding to rigid practices and beliefs doesn't necessarily work out.

 

[Zaddy]

Maybe...

Both Russian goalies mentioned were first rounders that have easily covered their draft positions despite Russian and positional bias. They covered the development path as mentioned. Askarov is viewed to be on their level and for some trained, professional scouting eyes better.

Hart is an example of the Oilers draft philosophy missing as they still wait for a fallen first round projected forward to make the NHL club. Meanwhile Philadelphia, a team noted for a turnstile goaltending approach, has a secured #1 tender. Holding to rigid practices and beliefs doesn't necessarily work out.

And yet they didn't use a high 1st round pick to get him. In fact Hart was not even their 1st or 2nd pick in that draft, it was their 3rd pick.

At #14 you can get an impact player. At #48 (where Hart was drafted) it's a lot more uncertain what type of player you'll get. If you feel a goalie is the BPA there then you can take him. Whoever is drafted in the 2nd round generally takes a long time to become an NHLer so it doesn't really matter what position the player you pick play. That's the difference.

 

[Zaddy]

But for argument's sake. If Jarvis and Quinn are gone, Askarov at #14 wouldn't be the worst choice in the world. I'd rather have him than Mercer or Amirov because I think he's in another tier from those guys, but I'd also probably pick both Zary and Gunler ahead of Askarov, although Askarov has definitely a higher ceiling than those two, so you can at least make an argument for taking him there if that's the case.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

And yet they didn't use a high 1st round pick to get him. In fact Hart was not even their 1st or 2nd pick in that draft, it was their 3rd pick.

At #14 you can get an impact player. At #48 (where Hart was drafted) it's a lot more uncertain what type of player you'll get. If you feel a goalie is the BPA there then you can take him. Whoever is drafted in the 2nd round generally takes a long time to become an NHLer so it doesn't really matter what position the player you pick play. That's the difference.

At 14 you can get an impact goaltender whose solves a chronic issue for a decade. He can likely follow the same development path as his peers playing NHL games as early as draft plus 3 and posed to take over for an costly thirtysomething free agent signing because this bad franchise has tried to nibble around goaltending solutions. Askarov is already playing 'development' games in the second best professional league in the world. Projecting impact - this is very hard to beat.

The example of the Oilers picking a falling positional player in hometown Benson over a hometown, quality goaltending just shows there is no such thing as guarantees regardless of positional bias. Hart is a bonafide NHLer while the Oil wait on a first round rated positional player. In the case of two better organizations, Tampa Bay and Washington, both went against Russian and positional bias to secure long-term solutions in net. One just might win the Vezina and Conn Smythe this year. Washington invested quality picks in goaltending which they spun off for more assets to keep their pipeline stocked.

Askarov is rated within the top fifteen by professional scouts... despite the noted bias'. You want a potential franchise altering pick at 14, it would be Askarov.

 

[BarDownBobo]

a) Carter Hart is an exception
b) These guys were picked in the 2nd round

At #14 you can get a forward who can have an impact in 2-3 years.

The problem is you seem to be so convinced on these forward prospects that you won’t acknowledge that there’s risk with them as well. We’re three years out from the 2017 draft where there was a run of forwards from picks 5-13, and the only guy who I’d say is a full on impact forward at this point is Elias Petterson who went 5. Martin Necas and Nick Suzuki started to show it this year but I’d say the jury is still out to some degree. But none of Cody Glass, Lias Andersson, Casey Mittlestadt, Michael Rasmussen, Owen Tippett or Gabe Vilardi are what I would call impact players at this point. Same thing with 2016, which we’re four years out from. I don’t think any of Alex Nylander, Tyson Jost, Logan Brown or Michael McCleod are impact forwards right now. There’s no guarantee any of Quinn, Jarvis, Zary, Mercer and Gunler will be impact players in 2-3 years either.

 

[Zaddy]

The problem is you seem to be so convinced on these forward prospects that you won’t acknowledge that there’s risk with them as well. We’re three years out from the 2017 draft where there was a run of forwards from picks 5-13, and the only guy who I’d say is a full on impact forward at this point is Elias Petterson who went 5. Martin Necas and Nick Suzuki started to show it this year but I’d say the jury is still out to some degree. But none of Cody Glass, Lias Andersson, Casey Mittlestadt, Michael Rasmussen, Owen Tippett or Gabe Vilardi are what I would call impact players at this point. Same thing with 2016, which we’re four years out from. I don’t think any of Alex Nylander, Tyson Jost, Logan Brown or Michael McCleod are impact forwards right now. There’s no guarantee any of Quinn, Jarvis, Zary, Mercer and Gunler will be impact players in 2-3 years either.

I'm talking in a general sense, what tends to happen. Jarvis and Quinn could bust, Askarov could bust, Byfield could bust, Stützle could bust. What's your point? Because my point is that if all things are equal, forwards tend to have an impact much sooner than goalies (and defensemen).

Also not sure what your point with the 2017 draft is. A lot of that 1st round is pretty underwhelming outside the top5. Not just the forwards. The defensemen too. Especially the defensemen actually. Foote, Brännström, Välimäki, Liljegren and Vaakanainen went 14-18 and none of them are even established NHLers at this point.

Glass spent almost the entire season with the NHL squad. Vilardi would've been a regular by now if not for his injuries and even then he had 7 points in 10 games. Suzuki was the Habs #1C this year. So there are some good players in that range anyway and obviously the Blues got Thomas at #20 who was a regular in his draft +2 season, and we got Yamamoto a top6 forward in his draft +3 season.

But sure, Askarov could buck that trend. This season is essentially his draft +1 season and he's showing promise. He's signed for another year though and if he comes over the following year he'll likely be a backup, so if he's able to take the reins the following year he'd be a starter by his draft +4 season. If he turns out to be a good one then sure, waiting that extra year is fine I guess, but there's also zero guarantee that he won't need a full season in AHL before being an NHL backup, which in that case would likely make him a starter by his draft +5 season.

But even disregarding the time, I still think it's way easier to find a goalie through FA or trade than to find an affordable top6 forward outside the draft. Or do you believe our forward group is good enough to win a Cup? Or do you have a realistic solution on how to fill those gaps?

 

[BarDownBobo]

I'm talking in a general sense, what tends to happen. Jarvis and Quinn could bust, Askarov could bust, Byfield could bust, Stützle could bust. What's your point? Because my point is that if all things are equal, forwards tend to have an impact much sooner than goalies (and defensemen).

Also not sure what your point with the 2017 draft is. A lot of that 1st round is pretty underwhelming outside the top5. Not just the forwards. The defensemen too. Especially the defensemen actually. Foote, Brännström, Välimäki, Liljegren and Vaakanainen went 14-18 and none of them are even established NHLers at this point.

Glass spent almost the entire season with the NHL squad. Vilardi would've been a regular by now if not for his injuries and even then he had 7 points in 10 games. Suzuki was the Habs #1C this year. So there are some good players in that range anyway and obviously the Blues got Thomas at #20 who was a regular in his draft +2 season, and we got Yamamoto a top6 forward in his draft +3 season.

But sure, Askarov could buck that trend. This season is essentially his draft +1 season and he's showing promise. He's signed for another year though and if he comes over the following year he'll likely be a backup, so if he's able to take the reins the following year he'd be a starter by his draft +4 season. If he turns out to be a good one then sure, waiting that extra year is fine I guess, but there's also zero guarantee that he won't need a full season in AHL before being an NHL backup, which in that case would likely make him a starter by his draft +5 season.

But even disregarding the time, I still think it's way easier to find a goalie through FA or trade than to find an affordable top6 forward outside the draft. Or do you believe our forward group is good enough to win a Cup? Or do you have a realistic solution on how to fill those gaps?

My point with the 2017 draft is that you keep saying that we’ll have an impact forward in 2-3 years with the guy picked at 14. We’re three years out from that draft and the results say otherwise. Same thing with 2016, so now we’re suddenly at the 5 year window that you’re saying it’ll take for Askarov to be ready. Saying he would be less than ideal to pick because of how long it’ll take for him to make an impact just isn’t true when you look back at the results.

People say it’s easier to find a goalie through trades/free agency/later in the draft but we’ve been trying that for 15 years and arguably the biggest success came from a guy who was ironically drafted 14th overall.

 

[Zaddy]

My point with the 2017 draft is that you keep saying that we’ll have an impact forward in 2-3 years with the guy picked at 14. We’re three years out from that draft and the results say otherwise. Same thing with 2016, so now we’re suddenly at the 5 year window that you’re saying it’ll take for Askarov to be ready. Saying he would be less than ideal to pick because of how long it’ll take for him to make an impact just isn’t true when you look back at the results.

I literally already showed forwards picked in the #13-15 range from 2018 and back to 2014. You can include 2013 and 2012 there too if you want with Wennberg in 2013 who played 68 games in his draft +2 year and Girgenson in 2012 who played 70 games in his draft +2 year too. That's 7 years in a row where you got an NHLer at #14 or the surrounding two picks if a forward was not selected at #14. It's not a guarantee that it will happen again this year, but it's a pretty decent track record at this point showing that you're fairly likely to get a good player there who plays within 2-3 years.

People say it’s easier to find a goalie through trades/free agency/later in the draft but we’ve been trying that for 15 years and arguably the biggest success came from a guy who was ironically drafted 14th overall.

You didn't answer my question. What do you suggest the Oilers do to complement their forward group? You have to pay a premium if you're gonna complement it through free agency, and few teams are willing to part with their top6 forwards through trade. So what's your solution? I'll take my chances of finding a goalie in free agency. Dallas tandem Bishop and Khudobin were both FA's. Isles tandem Greiss and Varlamov were both FA's. Vegas starter Lehner was an FA signing. 3 out of the 4 final teams in the playoffs this season had FA signings as their #1 goalie. None of them cost that much either.