The longer this goes on, the more I start to question the bolded. They weren't a playoff team last year. They aren't a playoff team this year. What are we basing the notion on, that these are good players? (I realize its a generalization about individuals.) But my point is that maybe the talent level on this team has been overestimated.
Past performance is something that can't just be ignored.
Every single one of our D men is having their worst season in years defensively. I think some of it is a decrease in defensive play from the forwards, but our entire back end is not playing as well as they have before. The scheme might be causing it, but their actual play has also been objectively worse than they have actually played in the past.
Petro is on pace for 34 points, which would be the lowest total of his career in a season where he played 50+ games. His current lowest is 37 points and that was in 73 games (41.5 point pace). Every other year has seen him at a 45 point pace or better.
Parayko is on pace for 26 points, which is noticeably lower than the 35 points he has consistently achieved in his 3 year NHL career.
Bozak is on pace for 34 points, which is woefully behind the 43-55 point pace he has achieved in each of the last 7 seasons.
Tarasenko is on pace for 53 points and 24 goals. Those would each be dramatically lower than anything he is done in the last 4 years.
Those are 4 guys who are essentially having career-worst seasons at the moment. 3 of them are unquestionably in the 'core' and among the the most 8 important players on the roster. There is tangible evidence that Petro, Parayko and Tarasenko are better players than they have been this season. It wasn't blind optimism that led us to think they were good players. They have each demonstrated over several seasons that they are very good players who are better than their current play and that is something that people around the league would agree on. It is an insanely uphill argument to say that Petro, Parayko, and Tarasenko weren't actually that good in the past and were simply overestimated.
Schenn is playing right about at his career average this season after a career-year last season. It could be that last year was the outlier and this is who Schenn really is. But again, thinking he is better than his current level of play was not simply blind optimism and overestimation based on nothing. He was a 70 point player in the NHL last year. He demonstrated that he is absolutely good enough to be a 2C for a good NHL team (his expected role this year).
Perron is playing at a 49 point pace, which is right where people expected him to be. He is playing like a good player. Not an elite player, but 49 points out of your 3rd or 4th best winger is generally acceptable for a playoff team.
Schwartz had a slow start and the injury, but he is on a 54 point pace. Like some of the players listed above, he has absolutely demonstrated that he can be better than that (either by producing at a 60-65 point pace or being much better defensively while being a 55 point player).
Maroon is playing horrific compared to his last 2 seasons. I realize that some of that is the McDavid effect, but he also had 13 points in 17 games for the Devils by riding shotgun to a good line and damn good player. He was given that opportunity here and failed miserably. We can debate whether or not he should have been given that chance. However, whether you agreed with it or not, he had demonstrated for 2 years that he could be an adequate low-cost compliment that can bury 15 goals worth of garbage. That wasn't a hope and a prayer. He did it for 2 years and then fell miles short of being able to do it here despite having an incredibly long leash.
That's a huge chunk of our top 9 that is either greatly underperforming realistic expectations based on past play or are doing about what we thought they could/would do. That's why so many people say that we have good players who are better individually than the record.
Quick Edit: I'm not suggesting that changes don't need to be made. I'm not suggesting that we should spend assets to try to salvage this season and I'm not suggesting that a coaching change should be expected to fix everything. There are lots of problems with this team and I think a few roster moves are needed to fix things. Chemistry, buy in, style, system, locker room, work ethic,etc. However you want to define it, there is something wrong with this group well beyond the talent level. My point is simply that there is a ton of talent on this team and that the expectations weren't just based on blind optimism or overestimating the talent on the roster.
