The "I guess we're tanking" thread--Projections

carter333167

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Apr 24, 2013
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Here's what I've come up with in a search that takes me well past the point I intended to go to bed, because ... I guess because of dedication to all of you. It's actually happened 3 times: Los Angeles (1970-1973), Oakland / California [1971-1973], and Philadelphia [1993-1994].

How Los Angeles did it: they actually didn't have a 1st-round pick in 6 consecutive years. They made the playoffs in the first and last years of that stretch.

1969 - in the expansion draft of 1968, the Kings traded this pick and their 1st in 1972 to Montreal for Gerry Desjardins. The Kings would end up 24-42-10, 58 points but knocked off Oakland in 7 before falling to the Blues in 4. Desjardins would play 104 games in goal for the Kings before getting dealt to Chicago; Montreal later dealt this pick to Minnesota to protect Dick Duff from being taken in the '69 Intra-League draft; the North Stars would take Dick Redmond.

1970 - before the expansion draft of 1968, the Kings needed Skip Krake from Boston and traded this pick to the Bruins for him. The Kings would end this season 14-52-10 and 38 points and be nowhere near the playoffs. Krake would play 88 games with the Kings as part of a serviceable but unspectacular NHL career. [He'd have better luck over in the WHA.] The Bruins would use the pick to take future Conn Smythe trophy winner Reggie Leach.

1971 - a year after shipping the '70 1st away, the Kings dealt this pick to Boston for Ross Lonsberry and Eddie Shack. Oh, and the Kings also gifted the Bruins their 1st in '73. They proceeded to go 25-40-13, 63 points and miss the playoffs a 2nd straight year. Lonsberry would play 2 1/2 decent seasons with the Kings, then go to Philadelphia and win the Cup twice with the Flyers. Shack was late in his career and would play 84 games with the Kings before getting moved to Buffalo as the Sabres stocked their NHL roster. Boston would waste this pick on Ron Jones.

1972 - see 1969. The Kings still weren't close at 20-49-9, 49 points. The Canadiens used this pick to take future HOFer Steve Shutt.

1973 - see 1971. It was the best point total in a season to date for Los Angeles at 31-36-11, 73 points, but still 3 points shy of a playoff spot to miss for the 4th consecutive year. The Bruins would take Andre Savard, who would go on to have a serviceable career most notably with Buffalo.

1974 - after having dealt away 5 1st-round picks before the franchise had played its 2nd full season, the Kings waited all the way until May, 1973 to deal this pick away. This time, it was for Bob Murdoch [who would play 414 games for the Kings!] and Randy Rota [who would play ... 58]. The Kings got into the playoffs this year, going 33-33-12 for 78 points. Montreal would take future HOFer Mario Tremblay.

Oakland missed the 3 years it didn't have a 1st-round pick. [And, it missed the playoffs from 1970 until the franchise technically dead-ends in Cleveland.] The story of how they traded those picks away is ... kind of similar to what Los Angeles did. Maybe, slightly worse.

1971 - the Seals, having come off a 22-40-14 season in 1969-70, were approach by Montreal with a fantastic offer: take Montreal's 1st-round pick in 1970 and Ernie Hicke, and send back Francois Lacombe. Oh, and also send back Oakland's 1st-round pick in 1971. Oakland used the 1st on Chris Oddleifson [who would never wear an Oakland/California jersey as he got dealt to Boston for Ivan Boldirev]. Hicke would go 22-25-47 in his rookie season, but the Seals were a league-worst 20-53-5 for 45 points, meaning their 1st-round pick was #1 overall. Well, not their 1st-round pick any more; it was Montreal's 1st-round pick at #1 overall - and the Canadiens gleefully used it to take future HOFer Guy Lafleur.

1972 - the Seals traded this pick to Montreal for Bryan "Bugsy" Watson ... in 1968. Watson would play 50 games for Oakland before getting dealt to Pittsburgh in January, 1969. California went 21-39-18 for 60 points in '71-72. The Canadiens used the pick on future backup Michel "Bunny" Larocque.

1973 - the Seals sent this pick [and their 2nd round pick in this draft] to Montreal for a 2nd-round pick in '72 and the opportunity to take Carol Vadnais in the Intra-League Draft .... in 1968. [Which should tell you about when it was traded.] Vadnais would play a couple years with Oakland, then get traded to Boston where he'd be a part of the Bruins' Cup-winning team in 1972. The Golden Seals would miss the playoffs a 3rd straight year, going 16-46-16, 48 points. Montreal later flipped this pick to Atlanta, who took Tom Lysiak.

Philadelphia's explanation is much more simple: the Flyers traded away their 1st-round picks in 1993 and 1994 in the deal to get Eric Lindros [trade completed 6-30-1992]; the Flyers missed the playoffs both years, both times trailing the Islanders by 4 points.


Honorable mention:

NY Rangers - traded away their 1st-round picks for 2000 and 2002, didn't make the playoffs in either year. [They also didn't make the playoffs in 2001.] The 2000 pick went to Tampa at the 1999 draft to get the #4 overall pick to use on Pavel Brendl; the 2002 pick went to Florida at the trade deadline to get Pavel Bure.

Pittsburgh - traded away their 1st-round picks in 1971 and 1972; they missed the playoffs in '71, and only got into the playoffs in '72 on some tiebreak over the Flyers. The '71 pick was traded to St. Louis in 1969 in a deal that sent Ron Schock, Craig Cameron and a 2nd in '72 go to the Pens for Lou Angiotti and that '71 1st. [Don't ask what we did with that pick; you'll cry.] The '72 pick went to Minnesota for Bob Woytowich in ... October, 1968.

Now that is some research! Thanks, IB!
 

ScratchCatFever

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Oct 14, 2018
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Finishing around 11-15 will be the worse case scenario. I’m sure that’s how it will play out. Crappy year and missing out on a top 10 pick.
I would say it is likely as well. I can see this team catching lightning in a bottle in late February. Youngsters start clicking, Schwartz and Schenn start clicking like last season, and Petro finally starts getting more than 3 hours of sleep a night. Suddenly we're smack dab in the middle of the pack with no high first rounder to look forward to. Hopefully DA can move some pieces to get us into the first round, albeit it won't be high enough to grab a player that is ready to play next year or likely the year after.
Ehhh Blues
 
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Halak Ness Monster

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Nov 11, 2010
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Prediction:
They're terrible until mid January when all of the sudden the talented roster starts to click and they play halfway decent hockey.
Not good enough to make the playoffs. Just good enough to lose our #12 overall pick to Buffalo!

We're not blessed enough to get Hughes or Kakko. Sorry guys.
 

Ted Hoffman

The other Rick Zombo
Dec 15, 2002
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What we did that pick? Idk :dunno:
Well, after we picked there was

1st Round
#5 - Rick Martin (to Buffalo)
#10 - Steve Vickers (to NY Rangers)
#14 - Terry O'Reilly (to Boston)

2nd Round
#19 - Craig Ramsay (to Buffalo)
#20 - Larry Robinson (to Montreal)
#22 - Rick Kehoe (to Toronto)

And at some point down the road, we would have 1st-round picks Pierre Plante (#9, Philadelphia) and Steve Durbano (#13, NY Rangers). But until then, our guy would ...

Play his junior hockey in Flin Flon in the WHL
Wear #15 with the Blues
Play 14 games with the Blues before being traded to the Rangers on November 15, 1971
Go on to have a serviceable but unspectacular career[/quote]
Be regarded by many Blues fans as a colossal disappointment and example of how a 1st round pick can be wasted
That guy, .... Gene Carr
 

Mike Liut

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Prediction:
They're terrible until mid January when all of the sudden the talented roster starts to click and they play halfway decent hockey.
Not good enough to make the playoffs. Just good enough to lose our #12 overall pick to Buffalo!

We're not blessed enough to get Hughes or Kakko. Sorry guys.


Last year it took 83 points to finish outside the top 10. We would need 61 points in our final 56 games to reach that. That’s roughly 31-25. I guess it will come down to how deep a hole we dig in these next few weeks with Petro and Fabbri out.
 

Bluesguru

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Aug 10, 2014
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Prediction:
They're terrible until mid January when all of the sudden the talented roster starts to click and they play halfway decent hockey.
Not good enough to make the playoffs. Just good enough to lose our #12 overall pick to Buffalo!

We're not blessed enough to get Hughes or Kakko. Sorry guys.

So you're saying the Blues can't have their Kakko and eat it too? :)
 
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Brian39

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Apr 24, 2014
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Last year it took 83 points to finish outside the top 10. We would need 61 points in our final 56 games to reach that. That’s roughly 31-25. I guess it will come down to how deep a hole we dig in these next few weeks with Petro and Fabbri out.

And the team who finished 10th picked 11th due to the lottery. It took 78 points to actually pick 10th last year. Where we finish in the standings isn't all that relevant. Where you finish after the lottery is what's important. There's about a 30% chance that a team outside the top 10 wins a top 3 pick, so it's not like it would take a huge stroke of bad luck to go from 10th to 11th.

That means 56 points in 56 games, which is entirely realistic for a mediocre to bad team. With OT losses being a thing, that probably means playing around 5-8 games below actual .500 from today forward.
 
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Ted Hoffman

The other Rick Zombo
Dec 15, 2002
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Good news? Bad news? We moved farther away from our goal of picking top-10, and pulled to within 9 10 points of Dallas and Vegas. And, we've clearly pulled ahead of Chicago now - meaning all things being equal, they're more likely to pick ahead of us at the draft.

Probably pick the guy we would really want, too. Bastards.
 

carter333167

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Apr 24, 2013
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Slot 11-15...... here we come. Leave it to this team to f*** up this season in literally every possible manner.
 

Mike Liut

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If we lose to Florida on Tuesday, things will get ugly fast. Lots of tough teams coming up. And the second half schedule is brutal.
 

TruBlu

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Feb 7, 2016
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If we lose to Florida on Tuesday, things will get ugly fast. Lots of tough teams coming up. And the second half schedule is brutal.
I've been saying this for a while. The team can't win more than one game before a loss. We are more than 1/3 of the way through the season and we have a 10-14-4 record. I'm surprised at the number of guys on here that keep thinking we are going to go on a run at some point. This is the type of team that is going to get a top five pick.
 
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TK 421

Barbashev eats babies pass it on
Sep 12, 2007
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Blues have 9 remaining B2B games and 7 of them are the 3rd game in 4 days. Not an easy remaining schedule

That means lots of The Chad which is good tank fuel.

Edit: Forgot we called Binnington up, now I may not have an excuse to say The Chad. That saddens me in a way I didn't expect. Damn you evil 2018-2019 season.
 
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Vladdy the Impaler

Moar Sobotka
Feb 20, 2015
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The Lou
Blues have 9 remaining B2B games and 7 of them are the 3rd game in 4 days. Not an easy remaining schedule

giphy.gif
 

Bluenatic

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Aug 13, 2010
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EJ trade. The included 1st rounder was top 10 protected. We ended up giving Colorado the 11th pick. Best they could receive that season, or worst possible outcome for the Blues if losing their selection. I would love a top 3-5 pick, franchise player after this crapfest of a season, but I'm not banking on it. It's not going to happen cause......well Blues. You all know this though
 

Pizza!Pizza!

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Sep 25, 2018
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I would like to see Armstrong try and get Ottawa's first from Colorado. Colorado might want to try and get more forward depth going into the playoffs behind there big line, if Ottawa is where they are right now they might trade it.
I think that would be a very wise move.
 
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542365

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Damn the Hawks are going to be tough to catch. They're terrible in new and interesting ways every night. 7 straight losses. They're even better than us at tanking. That Winnipeg game is going to come back to bite us by season's end.
 

Celtic Note

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Dec 22, 2006
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That Schmaltz trade didn’t help us. The Hawks actually got worse. I haven’t looked at the cap swap, but I wonder if it is a move to go after Panarin
 

Mike Liut

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Damn the Hawks are going to be tough to catch. They're terrible in new and interesting ways every night. 7 straight losses. They're even better than us at tanking. That Winnipeg game is going to come back to bite us by season's end.


No way Ottawa finishes ahead of us either. Hawks and Sens are guaranteed to finish 1-2
 

Ted Hoffman

The other Rick Zombo
Dec 15, 2002
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I would like to see Armstrong try and get Ottawa's first from Colorado. Colorado might want to try and get more forward depth going into the playoffs behind there big line, if Ottawa is where they are right now they might trade it.
They will sit on it and see what the Sens do. Only way they move it to us is if we're dealing a premier player over - which longer term probably is not what we want to do with a division rival.
 

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