The "I guess we're tanking" thread--Projections

[carter333167]

Well, since Easton has lol'ed the playoffs thread, I thought I'd create a placeholder for Irish Blues' official tankathon thread. I'll nix this thread when IB has fully computed all scenarios and starts his own thread.

NOTE:
1. We need to play .644 points percentage the rest of the way to hit 95 points
2. We are at at .467 points percentage.
2. We are tied for third worst in points percentage with 4 teams.
3. There are 11 teams at points percentage of .500 or lower.

Click to read more...

 

[AjaxManifesto]

68 points

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

We’re gonna go for it, go on a roll for a bit, and come two points short again because Blues. 92 pts.

 

[i aint Dunn yet]

The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls ... no wammys , no wammys .... and im sad again

 

[HighNote]

Not jumping on the tank train just yet, but how good is this upcoming draft? Besides Hughes, which guys are NHL ready and who would we be shooting for?

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Not jumping on the tank train just yet, but how good is this upcoming draft? Besides Hughes, which guys are NHL ready and who would we be shooting for?

Kaapo Kakko

 

[GoldenSeal]

With the team spent to the Cap, my money is on Stillman forcing an attempt to make the playoffs through trade, which I'm actually against as long as Armstrong is GM.

 

[TruBlu]

78 points

 

[Ranksu]

Not jumping on the tank train just yet, but how good is this upcoming draft? Besides Hughes, which guys are NHL ready and who would we be shooting for?

Kaapo Kakko

^
this

Blues Trade Proposals 2018-2019 - Part III

 

[Alklha]

Not jumping on the tank train just yet, but how good is this upcoming draft? Besides Hughes, which guys are NHL ready and who would we be shooting for?

It should be an excellent draft year, lots of high quality centres at the top. Might not be quite as deep as 2018, but the top 10/15 should be better next year. That's not a difficult prediction though, 2018 was very defense heavy and those picks carry more risk.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Well, since Easton has lol'ed the playoffs thread, I thought I'd create a placeholder for Irish Blues' official tankathon thread. I'll nix this thread when IB has fully computed all scenarios and starts his own thread.

NOTE:
1. We currently are on pace for 69.3 points.
2. We are fourth from the bottom in points percentage.
3. Our points percentage is .423.
4. There are seven total teams with a points percentage less than .500.
5. There are 12 teams with a points percentage of .520 or less.

Here are IB's thoughts from the playoffs thread:

I'm going to approach this in two ways:
1. "We have to finish in the bottom 6" because that guarantees a top-10 pick regardless of lottery results [which, worst case, would still leave us in the top-10], and
2. "We have to finish in the bottom 10" which ignores potential lottery movement shuffling us back.

Points needed the last 5 years to be top-6 and top-10:

Year	Points to be top-6	Points to be top-10
2017-18	73	80
2016-17	79	87
2015-16	78	82
2014-15	78	90
2013-14	83	88

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So, figure we probably can't go over 78 points to guarantee a top-10 spot, and probably need to be about 85 to finish no better than 22nd overall [which puts us 10th before the lottery]. Let's say that's records of 35-39-8 and 39-36-7 respectively. That means

* To guarantee a top-10 pick, we can't go better than 26-26-5
* To finish bottom-10, we can't go better than 30-23-4

And yes, if this carries on to where this becomes a legitimate possibility, I'll kick off a new thread on it.​

The projection should be top-7 and top-10. A 7th place finish would still guarantee us keeping our pick regardless if 3 teams leapfrog us or not.

And onto the point total prediction, i think we finish somewhere in the 8-10th worst range with: 83pts

 

[542365]

It's so sad that we essentially went "all in" over the summer and we have legitimate tank discussions in early December(and even before that when it became obvious this team was going nowhere).

I don't think we can out-suck the Hawks, Canucks, or Sens. I'm pretty confident they suck more than we suck. I think 4th worst is the best(or worst, I guess?) we're going to do. Flyers, Kings, Devils, and Panthers are going to be a challenge to stay behind as well. I think that's probably our best though, something around 8th in the league. If we finish 8th and three teams behind us win the lottery and force us to 11th, just go ahead and fold the franchise.

 

[TruBlu]

I think a lot of you don't realize how bad off we are. No way we climb out the top 5 pick. I wish they'd just call up most of our prospects and give them some time playing. Tank it properly. Let the guys with injuries sit on IR for as long as it takes to heal every little nagging injury and just flush the season away. It's the only silver lining we have this season knowing we might have a chance to pick up a guy in the draft that can immediately slot into next year's group.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

The projection should be top-7 and top-10. A 7th place finish would still guarantee us keeping our pick regardless if 3 teams leapfrog us or not.

And onto the point total prediction, i think we finish somewhere in the 8-10th worst range with: 83pts

That's true; I miscounted. I think what's there is still good enough for now, we're a long way away from being able to start narrowing down things more accurately and all kinds of things can [and probably will] change between now and then.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

There are teams that are poised to sell at the deadline no matter what. The Blues are not well positioned to do that (not any real UFA contracts that have significant value). Trading Schenn or Steen could happen, but those are players that have term left, not true rentals.

When those teams sell their players, they'll probably slide faster than the Blues. It may be harder than it looks to lose enough games to get a really flashy pick.

 

[Brian39]

I think a lot of you don't realize how bad off we are. No way we climb out the top 5 pick. I wish they'd just call up most of our prospects and give them some time playing. Tank it properly. Let the guys with injuries sit on IR for as long as it takes to heal every little nagging injury and just flush the season away. It's the only silver lining we have this season knowing we might have a chance to pick up a guy in the draft that can immediately slot into next year's group.

That's just a wildly inaccurate statement. We're currently 4th to last in points percentage. Based only on the season so far, we would have a 42% chance of picking outside the top 5. Even discounting the chance of us showing even a minute level of improvement or one of a handful of teams playing slightly worse, we're talking about nearly a coin flip chance that we don't have a top 5 pick. New Jersey, Ottawa, Philly, and Detroit are all truly bad teams that could pass us in the race to the bottom, even if we keep playing terribly.

I'd absolutely say that a top 5 pick is more likely than a playoff berth and probably more likely than us finishing north of 80 points. But it is absolutely not a forgone conclusion. This team can continue playing exactly as badly as it has all season and pick 7th or 8th. This team could very, very slightly improve and be at risk of the lottery sliding us outside the top 10.

I don't think you realize just how badly you have to play for an entire season to have a top 5 pick locked down.

 

[Brian39]

There are teams that are poised to sell at the deadline no matter what. The Blues are not well positioned to do that (not any real UFA contracts that have significant value). Trading Schenn or Steen could happen, but those are players that have term left, not true rentals.

When those teams sell their players, they'll probably slide faster than the Blues. It may be harder than it looks to lose enough games to get a really flashy pick.

I can't find it at the moment, but I read an article a year or so ago that found almost no statistical data to support the idea that a bottom-10 team who sells at the deadline starts playing worse. Generally, those teams are already playing so poorly that there isn't much room to get worse. Combined with some teams seeing a boost from young guys and tweeners trying to earn a job next year, it found that it is pretty much impossible to predict with accuracy that a seller will get worse.

 

[HolyJumpin]

Think you guys are underestimating how tough the schedule is for the team. They might not EVER get hot because of the amount of back to backs and three games in four nights they have. February and March are literally scheduling hell for this team. They've already done so poorly with back to back games and 3 of 4 games so far that it's going to HAMMER them when those months arrive. They're working without a full roster for the larger part of their easier part of the season. Jake Allen is gonna go turn into a pumpkin at the start of January like he has for the past two seasons and it is gonna be a riot to watch.

I'm obviously a fan of Hughes but Kaapo and Byram are two players that would really fill our needs really well.

 

[Vladdy the Impaler]

Finishing any better than 5th and getting a later first round pick would be an absolute disaster. How lousy would it feel to have endured this dumpster fire all season only to end up with a mediocre spot in the draft?

I want a top 5 pick. Berube needs to play the young guys.

 

[carter333167]

Finishing any better than 5th and getting a later first round pick would be an absolute disaster. How lousy would it feel to have endured this dumpster fire all season only to end up with a mediocre spot in the draft?

I want a top 5 pick. Berube needs to play the young guys.

Finishing 11-15 would be worse. Endure a shit season that is largely over by mid-Decenmber and........for the second straight year, we wouldn't own our own pick.

 

[TruBlu]

That's just a wildly inaccurate statement. We're currently 4th to last in points percentage. Based only on the season so far, we would have a 42% chance of picking outside the top 5. Even discounting the chance of us showing even a minute level of improvement or one of a handful of teams playing slightly worse, we're talking about nearly a coin flip chance that we don't have a top 5 pick. New Jersey, Ottawa, Philly, and Detroit are all truly bad teams that could pass us in the race to the bottom, even if we keep playing terribly.

I'd absolutely say that a top 5 pick is more likely than a playoff berth and probably more likely than us finishing north of 80 points. But it is absolutely not a forgone conclusion. This team can continue playing exactly as badly as it has all season and pick 7th or 8th. This team could very, very slightly improve and be at risk of the lottery sliding us outside the top 10.

I don't think you realize just how badly you have to play for an entire season to have a top 5 pick locked down.

I was obviously be sardonic when I said there was no way. Of course I know they could end up not getting a top 5 pick. My post merely conveys my own personal opinion based on toughness of schedule, severity of injuries, and previous play. I can see you don't share my pessimism, but I'd be willing to bet you that fans of five different teams say every season that they can't possibly stay that bad all year long.....

 

[Vladdy the Impaler]

Finishing 11-15 would be worse. Endure a **** season that is largely over by mid-Decenmber and........for the second straight year, we wouldn't own our own pick.

Which is why anything other than a complete tank at this point would be unacceptable. Maybe Army has already accepted this and hence, assigned Berube as head coach and Steve Ott to draw up plays?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Which is why anything other than a complete tank at this point would be unacceptable. Maybe Army has already accepted this and hence, assigned Berube as head coach and Steve Ott to draw up plays?

As depressing as it is to contemplate, they still have a higher chance of making the playoffs than of getting the #1 pick, as of today.

I think "deciding to tank" isn't really a thing. But the GM can decide to be a seller at the trade deadline.

The players' job is to win games.
The coach's job is to win games. There is never a time when those guys aren't trying to win.

But the GM can give the coach a limited roster full of inexperienced guys, suspect at certain positions, etc. Until there is a trade made, there is not 'tanking' going on. They just stink. If they go on a winning streak now, its not because they decided not to tank. And if they lost the next 5 or 10, it doesn't mean they are tanking.

When Armstrong trades a core player and the replacement is Kyrou or Thomas, that's when they're 'tanking'. They're accepting a lower finish now for experience today (and hopefully dividends in the future).

 

[carter333167]

That's just a wildly inaccurate statement. We're currently 4th to last in points percentage. Based only on the season so far, we would have a 42% chance of picking outside the top 5. Even discounting the chance of us showing even a minute level of improvement or one of a handful of teams playing slightly worse, we're talking about nearly a coin flip chance that we don't have a top 5 pick. New Jersey, Ottawa, Philly, and Detroit are all truly bad teams that could pass us in the race to the bottom, even if we keep playing terribly.

I'd absolutely say that a top 5 pick is more likely than a playoff berth and probably more likely than us finishing north of 80 points. But it is absolutely not a forgone conclusion. This team can continue playing exactly as badly as it has all season and pick 7th or 8th. This team could very, very slightly improve and be at risk of the lottery sliding us outside the top 10.

I don't think you realize just how badly you have to play for an entire season to have a top 5 pick locked down.

I agree and think it really will be tough for us to be in the bottom 5. I think it's more likely that we end up in the 11-15 slot than in the bottom 5.

 

[ort]

Yeah, I really do have a hard time imaging this lineup being this bad for an entire season. They might stay in the bottom 10, but I really don't see them remaining one of the worst... but who knows. I never in a million years would have guessed they'd be where they are now, so what do I know.